News
29 Aug 2022 - New Funds on Fundmonitors.com
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New Funds on FundMonitors.com |
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Below are some of the funds we've recently added to our database. Follow the links to view each fund's profile, where you'll have access to their offer documents, monthly reports, historical returns, performance analytics, rankings, research, platform availability, and news & insights. |
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Ausbil Australian Emerging Leaders Fund |
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Ausbil Balanced Fund |
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Candriam Sustainable Global Equity Fund |
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Fortlake Real-Income Fund |
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Fortlake Real-Higher Income Fund |
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29 Aug 2022 - Global equities strengthen
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Global equities strengthen Glenmore Asset Management August 2022 After a very challenging finish to FY22, July was a strong month for equities globally. In the US, the S&P 500 rose +9.1%, the Nasdaq was up +12.4%, whilst in the UK, the FTSE was more muted, rising +3.5%. Domestically, the ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index rose +6.3%. The top performing sectors on the ASX were technology (assisted by falling bond yields), whilst resources were the worst performer, driven by weaker commodity prices. Unsurprisingly, small caps outperformed large caps as investor risk appetite materially improved. In our view the key driver of the rally in July was investor expectations around inflation (and hence interest rate hikes) beginning to moderate as commodity prices eased, and with central banks now well underway with raising rates, investors potentially can see some light at the end of the tunnel with regards to the current restrictive monetary policy. During the month, the Federal Reserve (US central bank) increased the Fed Funds Rate by 75 basis points (bp) to a range of 2.25% - 2.50%, whilst the RBA increased the cash rate by 50bp to 1.35%. Whilst these are quite material increases, they were largely expected by investors, with consensus that there will be more such hikes over the course of 2022. Commodity prices were broadly weaker in July, driven by fears around an economic slowdown, particularly in China. Iron ore, crude oil and copper all fell -4%, whilst gold declined -2%. Thermal coal outperformed, rising +6%. In the bond market, notably the key US 10 year bond yield fell -36 basis points (bp) to close at 2.70%, whilst the Australian 10 year bond yield fell 60 bp to close at 3.1%. The movements of both in July were a function of some early signs that inflationary pressures have started to ease. Some key themes we will be monitoring are cost pressures and how companies are dealing with them, as well as any impact on demand and/or revenue from recent central bank interest rate increases. As has been the case in the previous years, we are optimistic that reporting season can provide some excellent new investment ideas. Funds operated by this manager: |
29 Aug 2022 - 'Small Talk' - Where have all the IPOs gone?
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'Small Talk' - Where have all the IPOs gone? Equitable Investors August 2022 In this Small Talk update, we show a chart which highlights IPO activity...or lack of it. IPOs in Australasia are down 88% so far in calendar 2022, relative to the same point in time in 2021, as measured in US dollars raised. That's slightly worse than the global decline of 74%, as per data from Dealogic. The ASX's current list of upcoming IPOs features 10 with an expected listing date, of which only one is not a miner/explorer. Funds operated by this manager: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Disclaimer Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice - or advice in any other field. Neither the information, commentary or any opinion contained in this blog constitutes a solicitation or offer by Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (Equitable Investors) or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Nor shall any such security be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The content of this blog should not be relied upon in making investment decisions.Any decisions based on information contained on this blog are the sole responsibility of the visitor. In exchange for using this blog, the visitor agree to indemnify Equitable Investors and hold Equitable Investors, its officers, directors, employees, affiliates, agents, licensors and suppliers harmless against any and all claims, losses, liability, costs and expenses (including but not limited to legal fees) arising from your use of this blog, from your violation of these Terms or from any decisions that the visitor makes based on such information. This blog is for information purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The information on this blog does not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Although this material is based upon information that Equitable Investors considers reliable and endeavours to keep current, Equitable Investors does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed on this blog may change as subsequent conditions vary. Equitable Investors does not warrant, either expressly or implied, the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained on this blog and does not warrant that the functions contained in this blog will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the blog will be free of viruses or other harmful components.Equitable Investors expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the materials on this blog and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained on the blog |
26 Aug 2022 - Could the US Supreme Court's decision against the EPA derail decarbonisation efforts?
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Could the US Supreme Court's decision against the EPA derail decarbonisation efforts? 4D Infrastructure August 2022 On 30 June 2022, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled in favour of West Virginia and a group of other states in their lawsuit against the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), potentially limiting the agency's ability to enforce actions to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
In a majority vote of 6-3, where all six conservative judges sided against the EPA, SCOTUS ruled that the agency overstepped its authority and required 'clear congressional authorisation' to enforce switching from fossil fuel generation to low/no carbon energy. Until now, the EPA had relied on powers provided under the Clean Air Act (1970) in regulating and restricting certain types and volumes of GHG emissions from fossil fuel generation facilities. In this article, we consider what this ruling means for decarbonisation efforts in the US, and for us as global infrastructure investors. Ramifications of the rulingIn its ruling, SCOTUS relied on the 'major questions' doctrine; an academic term the Court used in a ruling for the first time. The doctrine allows judges to strike down regulations or agency actions that 'address questions of vast economic or political significance' without explicit authorisation from Congress[1]. The ruling raises legal questions about the ongoing authority and powers available to the EPA in regulating emissions, and, specifically, what constitutes 'major' - in short increasing legal uncertainty[2]. Some observers have questioned whether the US' commitments to decarbonisation, and specifically the Paris Agreement, can be achieved with the current uncertainty around the EPA's ability to enforce emissions reductions. And if the US is unlikely to achieve its commitments to the Paris Agreement, does that put global efforts to achieve net-zero and limit global temperature increases to well below two degrees Celsius at risk?[3] Does this impede the US' Paris Agreement commitments?Under President Biden, the US made commitments to achieve net-zero by 2050, and reduce GHG by 50% to 52% below 2005 levels by 2030. In light of the SCOTUS ruling, arguments for and against the US' ability to achieve these targets are summarised in the table below.
4D's internal viewThere's no doubt SCOTUS' decision raises questions as to the EPA's ongoing effectiveness in enforcing emissions reductions. This could see some fossil fuel generation facilities, which would otherwise be decommissioned or retrofitted with technology to reduce emissions (such as carbon capture), continue to operate and emit GHGs for longer. This is more likely in states that are economically dependent on the fossil fuel industry. Importantly, however, the US' interim 2030 commitment under the Paris Agreement is more dependent upon the economic benefit argument in transitioning coal generation to renewables, combined with batteries and/or peaking natural gas generation. These economic benefits are supported by technological improvement in low/no carbon technologies and tax subsidies which are currently in place. Biden has communicated the ambition to improve and/or extend these subsidies as part of proposed legislation, which will improve the economics of the transition. Either on their own, or because of investor activism, most US utilities have set GHG reduction targets for 2030 that are in-line with, or more aggressive than, the US' economy wide targets. This improves our confidence that despite SCOTUS' ruling, the US can still achieve its interim commitment under the Paris Agreement. Net-zero still provides a real, long-term investment opportunityWhile the speed of ultimate decarbonisation may remain unclear, as infrastructure investors, we continue to see a real opportunity for multi-decade investment as every country moves towards a cleaner environment. At 4D, sustainability assessments have always played a key role in our investment process. As such, we continue to favour those companies that have been forward-thinking and are capitalising on the decarbonisation opportunity while generating attractive returns for investors. In the US, this includes American Electric Power and NextEra Energy; both of which are investing heavily in energy transition and will unlikely be derailed by the recent SCOTUS decision. |
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Funds operated by this manager: 4D Global Infrastructure Fund, 4D Emerging Markets Infrastructure FundThe content contained in this article represents the opinions of the authors. The authors may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the article. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely as an avenue for the authors to express their personal views on investing and for the entertainment of the reader. |
25 Aug 2022 - Equities responding to a higher rate environment
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Equities responding to a higher rate environment Eley Griffiths Group August 2022 Global equity markets (ex-China) rebounded strongly in July. The Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index rallied +11.4% over the month, a significant outperformance against large caps which gained +5.5%. There was early indication that bad news is now being discounted into stock prices. Markets pushed higher despite the US CPI report for June the highest print in 41 years, 9.1% year on year compared to the 8.8% estimate. Equities took the number in its stride failing to extinguish the "risk on" sentiment. As predicted, The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates by 75bp in response and whilst Fed Chair Powell's broader messaging didn't overly change, comments that the US economy may be showing signs of slowing were less hawkish than expected. The war on inflation is being won. The market responded by pricing in a lower peak Federal Funds rate and increasing the likelihood that rates may be eased in 2023 reflecting the impact higher rates will have the on real economy. Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered +50bps after the Q2 CPI came in at 6.1% YoY, the highest since 1990. Once more, equity markets responded positively to the dovish post-meeting statements, "we don't need to return inflation to target immediately… we are seeking to do this in a way in which the economy continues to grow, and unemployment remains low" (Australian Strategic Business Forum, 20 July 2022 Governor Lowe). Outside non-gold resource names and agricultural stocks, the upswing was sectorally broad based. Standing out were those most beaten-up by inflation and central bank rate hike fears, namely Information Technology (+18%) and Financials (+15%). Focus now turns to the August corporate earnings results and whether investors have been heavy handed in their treatment of stocks. The lead from the US 2Q reporting season has been adequate. Attention will be trained on the impacts of inflation on operating cost structures, a higher rate environment and the health of the consumer. Funds operated by this manager: Eley Griffiths Emerging Companies Fund, Eley Griffiths Small Companies Fund |
24 Aug 2022 - The outlook for equities is unclear
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The outlook for equities is unclear Airlie Funds Management July 2022 |
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The outlook for equities is incredibly unclear. We have talked prior that markets are at the crossroads after a +10-year bull market - inflation and interest rates are on the rise and so central banks are reversing course after a decade plus of super easy policies. The early result of this, and exacerbated by the Ukraine invasion, is a return of market volatility. After being super strong in the March quarter, even commodity prices are now weakening, putting further pressure on the Aussie market. As fabled investor Peter Lynch says - "If you can only follow one piece of data - follow the earnings...". Given profit margins overall are at record highs; stimulus is unwinding; costs pressures abound; and consumers will likely have less disposable income - then an easy bear case for the direction of earnings can be outlined. PORTFOLIO POSITIONING
As bottom-up stock-pickers, we invest on company fundamentals: seeking conservative balance sheets, businesses that generate good returns and are managed by competent people. However, from a top-down perspective we want to avoid "unintended bets"; i.e., positioning the portfolio in a way that leaves it vulnerable to certain macro events playing out. The key macro event to watch this year is inflation. There is no doubt in the near term that inflation will continue to increase: most of the companies we speak to are seeing significant input cost (and increasingly labour) inflation, and have signalled their intent to pass this on in the form of higher prices. Since we think inflation is heading up in the near-term, it's important to make sure our portfolio owns businesses with pricing power, that can protect margins and pass on higher costs to end consumers. We have analysed our portfolio through this lens and think we are well positioned. Businesses like James Hardie, Woolworths, Wesfarmers, Macquarie, the banks, Aristocrat and CSL should all benefit from (or at least not suffer from) higher inflation. The market has been quick to reprice those businesses whose valuations had benefited from the "lower-for-longer" interest rate tailwind of the last decade, chiefly high PE structural growth stories, loss-making tech companies and REITs. We believe there are additional nuances to consider. We are avoiding businesses with high ongoing capex needs, as inflation makes it more expensive to stand still, and businesses with material exposure to floating-rate debt. Meanwhile, we spend our time sifting through the wreckage of heavily sold-off companies for opportunities where good businesses have been mispriced with respect to stock selection for the portfolio, we weigh four factors when considering an investment: Financial strength: We want to own businesses with conservative levels of gearing and strong cash flows. While corporate balance sheets are in great shape across the board, with average net debt to EBITDA for ASX200 companies of 1.8x (well below the 10-year median of 2.5x), our portfolio has an average net debt to EBITDA of 0.3x. Further, 38% of our portfolio companies are in fact net cash. We believe this sets us up for strong future returns, whether through dividends, special dividends, buybacks, investment or acquisitions. Management quality: We look for alignment with shareholders, whether that be through significant management shareholdings, or appropriate long-term incentives. The ultimate model of alignment for us is owner- managed businesses, where the original founder remains in control. We believe these businesses tend to outperform over the long term, and owner-managed businesses comprise c30% of our portfolio, compared to 10% of the ASX200. Valuation: We believe the returns a business generates drive the value of the business, and seek to invest where the above factors are underappreciated in the prevailing market share price. Funds operated by this manager: Important Information: Units in the fund(s) referred to herein are issued by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946, AFS Licence No. 304 301) trading as Airlie Funds Management ('Airlie') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to an Airlie financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4760 or by visiting www.airliefundsmanagement.com.au. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of an Airlie financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Airlie makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Airlie. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. Any third party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Airlie claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks. Any third party trademarks that appear in this material are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. No affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from the use of these trademarks.. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Airlie. |
23 Aug 2022 - Are the businesses enjoying stock price rises today also the winners of tomorrow?
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Are the businesses enjoying stock price rises today also the winners of tomorrow? Insync Fund Managers July 2022 Lately we are all experiencing one tectonic event after the next. Foundations of the political and economic framework that have dominated much of the world since the 1980s are now being challenged; the impacts on globalisation, the questioning of the USD central role, and previously deeply embedded structural relationships in the energy markets to name a few. Our approach is far less dependent than our peers are on these issues, including inflation and interest rates. The jury is still out on whether inflation will be a temporary or a longer-term phenomenon. Covid and the tragic invasion of Ukraine have created significant commodity, energy, and labour mobility pressures. Companies that:
These are the required factors for a business to continue delivering healthy returns in real terms and are thus the same attributes Insync seeks. Most companies are not able to do this. Those companies possessing the most levers to pull going into an inflationary period are also the most likely to protect and even thrive for their investors. There will likely be tougher times ahead, quality growth investors should find themselves better positioned than most to weather the storm and come out substantially ahead. Why earnings power is crucial A shy, humble investor living on a suburban street in a small mid-western US city is often cited for his quips. "In the short-term markets are a voting machine. In the long-term it's a weighing machine" Over shorter periods sentiment in markets can shift wildly depending on the narrative of the day. This is driven by perceptions of investors trying to gauge where we are in the economic cycle, the path of inflation and interest rates, the impact of a geopolitical crisis, and what style of investing will be best equipped for the future. These are impossible to predict with any degree of certainty or to do so consistently. The one thing that is more certain over time is that in the long-term, share prices follow the consistent growth in the earnings of a business. We know that the most profitable companies remain profitable even ten years later fuelled by the enduring, large megatrends. Megatrends are so predictable you can set your watch by them. This is whether it is the rising importance of the Gen Z'ers, the acceleration in the number of people aged 70+, GDP+ growth in spending on skin and beauty, or the insatiable desire to spend on experiences. A portfolio of the most profitable companies tied to megatrends provides consistency in earnings leading to strong stock price returns. They are also mostly impervious to interest rate settings, the state of the economy or current commodity prices. 3 portfolio examples of why Earnings Growth is good for investors The evidence shows it all. Here are 3 companies in our portfolio. The coloured line in each graph is the path of earnings over the past 10 years. The white line is the share price performance. Observe the strong correlation between the earnings growth and share price performance. From time to time the two lines deviate based on an 'event', as is the case now. Obviously, present prices present an outstanding opportunity to invest.
These highly profitable businesses benefitting from Insync's identified megatrends have become even more attractive due to recent price falls. This is because their ongoing and established earnings power remains intact. Such excellent buying opportunities do not often present themselves. Funds operated by this manager: Insync Global Capital Aware Fund, Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Disclaimer |
22 Aug 2022 - New Funds on Fundmonitors.com
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New Funds on FundMonitors.com |
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Below are some of the funds we've recently added to our database. Follow the links to view each fund's profile, where you'll have access to their offer documents, monthly reports, historical returns, performance analytics, rankings, research, platform availability, and news & insights. |
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| IFP Global Franchise Fund | |||||||||||||||||||
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Macquarie Capital Stable Fund |
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Macquarie Dynamic Bond Fund |
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Macquarie Real Return Opportunities Fund |
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22 Aug 2022 - 10k Words
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10k Words Equitable Investors August 2022 It is almost compulsory to discuss interest rates and inflation, so the first charts this time around give us inflation for advanced economies and Australia, via the RBA, then US yield curve inversion and inflation-adjusted interest rates, courtesy of Bloomberg and Axios. The same sources have served up some charts on the strength of the US job market. Then we get into the tech sector with CB Insights mapping out billion-dollar acquisitions while Equitable Investors compares the dollar amount of stock compensation against operating cash flow for Amazon and Atlassian. The global IPO market is down 74% year-to-date in CY2022 and the Australasian component of that market is down 88%, using dealogic data. Finally, we return to Bloomberg and its table highlighting the world-beating frequency with which Australasian airlines have been cancelling flights.
Inflation in advanced economies
Source: RBA US yield curve v equities
Source: Bloomberg 5 year inflation-adjusted interest rate (US)
Source: Axios No. of US unemployed for 15 weeks or more
Source: Axios Change in employed from US payroll data
Source: Bloomberg Billion dollar acquisitions Source: CB Insights Amazon's stock compensation relative to its operating cash flow
Source: Equitable Investors, TIKR Atlassian's stock compensation relative to its operating cash flow
Source: Equitable Investors, TIKR Total Global IPOs by quarter in US dollars Source: WSJ, Dealogic Total Australasian IPOs by quarter in US dollars Source: WSJ, Dealogic Australasian airlines cancelling flights most frequently
Source: Bloomberg August Edition Funds operated by this manager: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Disclaimer Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice - or advice in any other field. Neither the information, commentary or any opinion contained in this blog constitutes a solicitation or offer by Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (Equitable Investors) or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Nor shall any such security be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The content of this blog should not be relied upon in making investment decisions. Any decisions based on information contained on this blog are the sole responsibility of the visitor. In exchange for using this blog, the visitor agree to indemnify Equitable Investors and hold Equitable Investors, its officers, directors, employees, affiliates, agents, licensors and suppliers harmless against any and all claims, losses, liability, costs and expenses (including but not limited to legal fees) arising from your use of this blog, from your violation of these Terms or from any decisions that the visitor makes based on such information. This blog is for information purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The information on this blog does not constitute a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Although this material is based upon information that Equitable Investors considers reliable and endeavours to keep current, Equitable Investors does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed on this blog may change as subsequent conditions vary. Equitable Investors does not warrant, either expressly or implied, the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained on this blog and does not warrant that the functions contained in this blog will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the blog will be free of viruses or other harmful components. Equitable Investors expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the materials on this blog and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained on the blog |
