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20 Dec 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 20 December 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 20 December 2024 As we in Australia end the year as it started - with the RBA's cash rate stuck at 4.35% - in the US the FOMC cut rates 0.25% to 4.25 to 4.50%, leaving markets unimpressed - not so much because they were hoping for more, but because Jerome Powell flagged a slow down in the rate of cuts in 2025.
News & Insights Investment Perspectives: Why a Trump presidency could be deflationary | Quay Global Investors Proprietary Data - Strategic AI Advantage | Insync Fund Managers Market Commentary - November | Glenmore Asset Management November 2024 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund TAMIM Fund: Global High Conviction Unit Class Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class) Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund |
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13 Dec 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 13 December 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 13 December 2024 As soon as Governor Michele Bullock had given the first indications of a softening of the RBA Board's stance on inflation, and with it the possibility of a rate cut, markets responded by factoring in 2 cuts prior to the election. Of course she still cautioned that inflation remained too high, and the outlook remains uncertain - standard fare for post board meeting comments. How much of that softening in tone has been as a result of pressure from your boss, The Treasurer, will probably never be known. And for those who think the RBA Governor's role is independent, just consider who appoints them to the role. If you're dependent on that, you're not independent, and they're the boss! However, market enthusiasm was dampened pretty quickly by Thursday, with the ABS announcing that the November unemployment rate had fallen to just 3.9%. The RBA has previously indicated unemployment would need to be 4.5% or above to dampen demand, and hopefully inflation. So back to the uncertain outlook, and with the Board not sure to meet again until the third week in February, when at least they'll have CPI data for November and December to chew on. Of course, the other additional information they'll have by then is almost a month of Donald Trump's presidency, an issue that Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser focused on in a speech this week, particularly referring to the potential for a tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China, and for that matter other countries, and the effects on Australia. While noting that nothing can be ruled in or out (particularly true when it comes to Trump) Hauser did emphasise that among a long list of 35 world economies, Australia is the least exposed to the negative effect on GDP of a 10% additional US import tariff. This is also reinforced by this week's article from PinPoint Economics, Part 2 of Risks and Issues for 2025 which is included below. PinPoint are suggesting we shouldn't look for a rate cut any time soon - in spite of other central banks cutting theirs. One interesting chart in PinPoint's analysis is titled "Measures of Misery", a term we hadn't been introduced to before - at least not in stark economic statistical terms. PinPoint's growth scenario depends on consumers opening their wallets again, however noting one certainty - at the end of 2024 consumers are miserable, and that the Enhanced Misery Index (based on a mix of CPI, unemployment, debt, and rents) is at the high end of the range over the past 30 years! Bank Hybrids and Franking Credits: Meanwhile back to the Treasurer's wish for influence on the RBA. Certainly no such independence across at APRA, in spite of protestations from head honcho John Lonsdale that this week's decision announcing the phasing out of Bank Hybrids by 2032 was to protect retail investors and ensure stability of the banking sector in times of stress. The decision was clearly a result of a directorate from Treasury (and presumably the Treasurer) with the intention of removing the $1bn per year in franking credit benefits from retail investors. To add insult to injury, APRA claimed that the submissions they invited from those in the industry were broadly supportive of APRA's move. Nicholas Chaplin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Seed Funds Management, whose Hybrid Income Fund has returned 8.52% over the past 12 months, noted that that the move also significantly reduces direct access to listed fixed income opportunities for Australian retail investors, and that professionally managed funds will no doubt benefit. Bill Shorten tried unsuccessfully to abolish franking credits on equities for mum and dad investors and pensioners, and in doing so lost the 2019 election, and his tilt at the Lodge. At the time, Hedge Clippings penned a poem warning "Wee Willy Short-One" that those investors and pensioners would vote - as they did - and also that Albo was breathing down his neck - as he was! The net result is that potentially the $43 billion in hybrids will now be forced into riskier bank equity, with potentially lower returns. That's great for the stability of the banking system in a crisis, but also an indication that when it comes to franking credits on equities, the government - or this government - still has its eyes on them. News & Insights How Trump will impact equity markets | Magellan Asset Management Mixed market sentiment for 2025 driven by global geopolitics and central bank easing cycles Risks & Issues in 2025 - Part 2 | PinPoint Macro Analytics November 2024 Performance News Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund |
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6 Dec 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 06 December 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 06 December 2024 As we approach the end of the year it's normal to reach for the crystal ball and peer into the future. This is particularly the case as there's so much at stake, and so much that might - or in the case of the RBA's stance on interest rates - might not change. Politically, the potential for change is already in place, with Donald Trump returning to the inauguration stage on the 20th of January. Although we might know the presidential inauguration date, and have been given a pretty clear outline of his policies, big question marks hang over both their effect on the US economy, and the reaction to them from the rest of the world - particularly from China which is already facing a further slowdown - and politically from Russia and Israel. More recently, there's been turmoil in France, and back in Australia, there's an election due by May, which it seems could go either way. However, you can't look into the crystal ball without also looking in the rear-view mirror. This week's PinPoint Macro Analytics article (see link to full article below), summarises Australia's economy over the past year as a "curate's egg" - partly good and partly bad. Inflation improved, but not enough to enable the RBA to move off their "narrow path" while GDP growth slowed to just 0.3% in the September quarter, and 0.8% over 12 months. Of course the original "curate's egg" was all bad - it just depended on which side of the table - the Bishop's or his unfortunate Curate's - one was sitting. So it is with Australia's economy, particularly if you're struggling with the cost of living, or with an oversized mortgage. Inflation in Australia only improved thanks to government support for electricity prices, while GDP growth only stayed positive thanks to government support. Dr. Chalmers would argue that's what his priorities should be. Meanwhile private demand through household consumption and business investment contributed nothing to September's insipid GDP growth rate. On the positive side, Australia's employment market remained strong, with unemployment hovering around 4.0%. Ironically, had this not been the case, the RBA might have moved to cut rates, a move some economists are now calling for, even if they're not expecting it to happen pre-election. Depending on how you look at it, the RBA has navigated the inflation cycle well, having not raised rates as much as their offshore counterparts, and as a result haven't moved to cut them either. Looking forward to 2025, PinPoint's research sees the global outlook remaining somewhat uninspiring, with the IMF describing the situation as "underwhelming". Still, while risks continue to skew towards the downside, recession fears have not made their way into most credible forecasts. News & Insights Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund Investment Perspectives: A Nike case study - lessons for real estate investors | Quay Global Investors Risks & Issues for 2025 - Part 1 | PinPoint Macro Analytics November 2024 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Seed Funds Management Hybrid Income Fund |
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29 Nov 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 29 November 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 29 November 2024 RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently spoke at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) Annual Dinner, and her message was clear that the RBA isn't rushing to cut interest rates like some of its international counterparts. That won't please the Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who likes to quote the fact that annual inflation has now fallen from 3.8% in June, to the October rate released this week of 2.1%, the lowest rate since July 2021. Dr. Chalmers is facing an election in the first few months of the new year, and he would dearly love the RBA to start cutting rates to help his cause. The RBA's issue is that much of the reduction since June has been thanks to the Treasurer's generosity in reducing electricity and power prices via government handouts - also we suspect with an eye on the upcoming election. Electricity prices have fallen 35.6% in the past 12 months, the largest fall ever recorded. Unfortunately (for Dr. Jim) the RBA looks beyond the headline rate, preferring the "Trimmed Mean" which cuts out extremes like electricity and fuel (-11.5%), and which sits uncomfortably at 3.4%, up from 3.2% in September, due in part to rises in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.3%), recreation and culture ( +4.3%) and alcohol and tobacco (+6.0%). At the CEDA event, Bullock stressed the bank's focus on sustainable falls to inflation, and that the Board can clearly see through the current drop in electricity prices as being temporary. In fact, in her speech she mentioned sustainably or sustainable no less than 13 times, just in case the Treasurer didn't get the point (which we're sure he did, he probably just didn't like it). So while she conceded that other central banks are starting to ease rates as inflation drops, Bullock was clear that Australia isn't there yet. Core inflation is still too high to consider rate cuts in the near term and according to Bullock, forecasts show a sustainable (there's that word again) return of underlying inflation to target won't occur until 2026. Meanwhile, PinPoint Macro Analytics has shared their insights on the broader economic landscape, particularly around the uncertainty following President Trump's return to the White House. In their piece, "Trump & Uncertainty," (see below for a link to the full article) they pointed out how unpredictable things are right now, from trade policies to fiscal and monetary directions. Markets are holding their breath, waiting to see what happens with potential tariffs, tax cuts, and any shifts in Federal Reserve policy. While some areas like infrastructure and defence spending seem relatively stable, the takeaway from PinPoint is that investors need to stay nimble given the ongoing geopolitical and fiscal unpredictability. All these recent developments reflect a bigger theme: Uncertainty is the name of the game, both at home and globally. The RBA's cautious stance makes a lot of sense in this context—it's about maintaining stability in an unpredictable world, especially with international pressures adding more layers of complexity. Whether it's changing U.S. policies or shifting global trade dynamics, everyone—from investors to businesses to policymakers—is having to adapt on the fly. Bullock's emphasis on a steady hand is a reminder that sometimes, the smartest move is knowing when not to make a move. Chalmers and Albo have no such leeway. May is not far away. News & Insights How Co-Investments are Transforming Affordable Housing | Webinar | HOPE Housing Fund Management Global Matters: The data centre opportunity for infrastructure investors | 4D Infrastructure 10k Words | Equitable Investors Market Commentary - October | Glenmore Asset Management October 2024 Performance News Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Insync Global Quality Equity Fund |
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22 Nov 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 22 November 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 22 November 2024 Following the build up, media frenzy and speculation leading to the US election, and then the surprise at Donald Trump's resounding victory (except to The Donald himself), everything has gone quiet, relatively speaking. Maybe it's just the media in limbo, save for regular announcements regarding key appointments. Trump himself, rarely short of a word over the past 6 months, has also gone quiet. Either he's taking a break prior to taking over in January, or maybe he's back on the golf course? Maybe it's just the lull before the storm? There's plenty of speculation on policy implementation, but even more on the reaction from China on tariffs, or immigration, or ending wars "in a day". Back in Australia the government is softening us up prior to the election due by May next year, which according to the polls is going to be much closer than one would have imagined after the last election. Much will come down to the economy (as it did in the end in the US) with inflation and interest rates taking centre stage. Treasurer Chalmers is trying to put a good spin on inflation, but is unlikely to fool anyone, and certainly not the RBA or the market. A big test will come next Wednesday when monthly CPI numbers are due for October. While the headline rate for the September Quarter seemed to be on the right track at 2.8%, that was significantly affected thanks to electricity rebates and lower fuel prices. Underlying inflation remained high at 3.5% which the RBA Bulletin noted was falling more slowly, and was not expected to return to target until the end of 2026 - in fact, the RBA expects that it will pick up in the September quarter 2025 when the energy rebates are due to end. Added to this, as noted in PinPoint Macro Analytics' weekly macro research (see below), the latest inflation figures in four major economies (US, UK, Eurozone and Canada) which had been falling, have all picked up. If Australia's CPI follows suit next week, then the chance of the RBA helping the embattled Albanese government out with a rate cut pre-election slips further. As PinPoint's Richard Grace points out, "the overnight index swap (OIS) market is the purest form of the market's expectation for what the RBA may do, and it is finally starting to push out the timing of the next interest rate cut." PinPoint also warns that the RBA Board has also said it is not ruling anything in or out. That might mean no rate cuts until after the election, or as an outside option, maybe a rate rise. That would certainly cook Albo's goose! News & Insights Manager Insights | East Coast Capital Management Hedge Clippings - Macro Research | PinPoint Macro Analytics US Election 2024: How will markets and sectors respond? | Magellan Asset Management Market Commentary - October | Glenmore Asset Management October 2024 Performance News Argonaut Natural Resources Fund Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund |
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15 Nov 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 15 November 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 15 November 2024 Last week's Hedge Clippings noted that Donald Trump's election victory would lead to some predictably unpredictable outcomes. Earlier this week we met with Richard Grace, ex CBA economist, now principal of PinPoint Macro Analytics, who has kindly agreed to provide some economic muscle and rigour to our weekly view of the world. Richard's contribution is included below as a Fund Monitor's Insights Article, part of which is summarised below. We mentioned to Richard that Newton's Third Law tells us that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction--a concept that generally provides a sense of predictability. But Richard pointed out that economics and politics doesn't work the way of physics and that the effects of Trump's presidency is likely to be anything but predictable: Each of his actions is bound to provoke a reaction, but the direction and magnitude of that reaction remains anyone's guess. Since Donald Trump was re-elected on November 5th, the Australian dollar (AUD) has slipped about 3% against the U.S. dollar, now hovering around 0.6450. For those who remember Trump's 2016-2020 term, this drop might feel like déjà vu. His announced tariffs on Chinese and European goods back then strengthened the USD and put downward pressure on the AUD, and history seems to be repeating itself. Trump's proposed economic policies this time around are designed to boost the U.S. economy, but not without shaking up global trade relationships. He's planning to significantly increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% and on all U.S. imports from around 3% to 20%. If Congress allows these measures, the impact on global growth could be profound, especially as China struggles with a sluggish property market. For Australia, the road ahead may be bumpy, with the AUD facing further downside into 2025. The graph below illustrates the effect Trump's tariffs had on a handful of currencies during his last term in office - Meanwhile, over in Washington, Trump has assembled a headline-grabbing cabinet. His appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Department of Health and Human Services is contentious, given Kennedy's scepticism towards vaccines. The potential ramifications for U.S. health policy could create market uncertainty, especially in sectors like pharmaceuticals and healthcare. Adding another layer of unpredictability, Trump has put Elon Musk at the helm of a newly formed Department of Government Efficiency--tasked with slashing bureaucracy. Musk's call for "high-IQ revolutionaries" willing to work 80+ hour weeks for zero pay might seem like a joke, but it underscores the aggressive belt-tightening Trump is pursuing. Investors will be watching for signs that this approach could create a more efficient U.S. administration, but for now, it seems more noise than concrete benefits. In yet another controversial move, Trump appointed Matt Gaetz as the new attorney general. Gaetz, who has faced his share of controversies, including a past Justice Department sex trafficking investigation, now leads the very institution that once scrutinised him. This, much like Trump's broader cabinet reshuffle, introduces reactions that are difficult to foresee, adding to the overall unpredictability of the administration. As always, in uncertain times, there are opportunities. Trump's renewed focus on U.S. industry may boost certain sectors--infrastructure, for example--and that could provide selective investment opportunities. But for those watching from Australia, the emphasis should be on managing FX risk and monitoring how the dust settles, especially regarding China and resource exports. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Macro Research - AUD Outlook | PinPoint Macro Analytics News & Views: Tariffs - the impact on infrastructure | 4D Infrastructure Megatrends for 2025 and beyond... | Magellan Asset Management October 2024 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
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8 Nov 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 08 November 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 08 November 2024 It's been a big week for markets, central banks, mainly due of course to the clear-cut US election result, which seemed to surprise everyone it seems, except Trump and his die-hard supporters. While we know there's never a dull moment, this week might take the cake--or at least a sizable slice of it. Trump's Victory: What It Means for Australia Well, it's official. While Donald Trump won't actually be back in the White House until January, the ripples are being felt globally. As expected, the initial market reaction was a mix of higher US Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and a predictably unpredictable response from equities. For Australia, the implications are numerous and, unfortunately, somewhat clouded by uncertainty. There's been plenty of chatter, not least from our friends at the RBA, on what a Trump presidency could mean for us. What does this mean for investors here? Perhaps the biggest takeaway is uncertainty. Tariffs could impact Australian exports indirectly via China, US policy changes might affect currency markets, and there's a general sense that volatility could remain a dominant theme for a while yet. Shane Oliver at AMP summed it up neatly: Trump's policies may give a short-term productivity boost in the US, but at the risk of stoking inflation and leading to a global flow-on effect. Expect more of the same - and a nervous RBA. Cash Rates: RBA Holds Steady as the Fed eases 0.25%. If all the election noise wasn't enough, this week also saw major central bank decisions on both sides of the Pacific. The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35%, as most expected, while the US Fed opted to lower its rate by 0.25 basis points--a more dovish move aimed at balancing a "generally eased" labour market and still-high inflation. RBA Governor Michele Bullock, speaking at the Senate budget estimates, noted that there's plenty of speculation, but no one really knows for sure. The combination of potentially higher tariffs, larger budget deficits, and fiscal changes in the US could lead to higher global interest rates and, ultimately, increased inflationary pressures here at home. If that sounds familiar, it's because we've seen this movie before--last time Trump was in office, his tariffs hit global trade and pushed costs up across the board. The RBA is right to be cautious. The RBA Governor was clear that, while she acknowledged inflation has eased, the RBA is not ready to take its foot off the brake just yet. The message remains consistent: inflation is still the main game, and the RBA wants to see clearer signs of it being under control before even contemplating rate cuts. Bullock was equally clear in her warning to Albanese and Treasurer Chalmers - higher government spending, and further pre-election cash-splash promises, are inflationary. So, what's the upshot for Australia? In the immediate term, not much--but with the US easing and Australia staying put, we could see increased pressure on the Aussie dollar. And with markets now contemplating the chances of no RBA cut until mid-2025, the gap between US and Australian rates could widen further. But then again, if there's one thing we know for sure, it's that predictions can easily be thrown out the window--particularly when Trump's involved. No Time to Be Predictably Predictable As always, uncertainty is the only certainty. We've got an unpredictable US President, an RBA sticking to its inflation-first mantra, and markets that are trying to make sense of it all. For investors this is a time to stay vigilant, diversify where possible, and, as always, keep one eye firmly on the bigger picture. The RBA might be on hold, but the world around us certainly isn't. Until then, keep your powder dry--and perhaps a glass of pinot handy. We'll all need it. News & Insights Quarterly State of Trend report - Q3 2024 | East Coast Capital Management Anticipating the Future of Luxury | Insync Fund Managers October 2024 Performance News |
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1 Nov 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 01 November 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 01 November 2024 The RBA finds itself in a bind yet again. Inflation has eased somewhat, with the September quarter number just 0.2%, or 2.8% annually, down from 3.8% in the June quarter, and taking it to a 3.5-year low. However, it's still running hot enough to make the RBA think twice about cutting rates. When the cash rate decision is announced next week, most experts are expecting rates to stay steady, much to the dismay of borrowers hoping for a bit of early festive cheer, and the Treasurer Jim Chalmers, desperate to claim the credit and hopefully another three years in office come election time next year. The RBA won't be fooled either by the overall number, or Jim Chalmers desire to claim "mission accomplished" George Bush style. Prices for most goods and services rose, offset by large falls for electricity and fuel. The trimmed mean number, which excludes both, was still 3.5%, albeit below June's 4.0 percent. Only government spending is keeping the economy in positive territory, and it's only government handouts that are seriously impacting inflation - for the present. Despite the overall figure, prices of essential items like rent, childcare, and insurance have kept upward pressure on households, with many services demonstrating a particularly stubborn streak. The RBA wants to keep inflation under control without being seen as stifling economic growth, but it's no easy feat. With inflation hovering in a state of "not dead yet," the central bank is likely to maintain its cautious approach. The possibility of a rate cut before year-end remains slim, and if that's the case, borrowers, and the Treasurer, will have to wait until February for any hope of a reprieve. Meanwhile if you hadn't noticed, the United States is gearing up for Election Day next week, with seemingly the rest of the world mesmerised by the spectacle, confused by the process, and concerned about the outcome. From where we sit, it's been a bizarre lead up, with Biden slipping up (literally) and then stepping down, Trump as popular as ever among the MAGA set, in spite of - or maybe because of - multiple indiscretions and crass behaviour or reminiscences from the golf club locker room. We have no idea based on the dead heat polls, but suggest voter turnout is expected to be the key factor when the dust settles (assuming it does). Historically, US voter turnout has fluctuated between just over 50% and 62.8% over the past six presidential elections. However it is unlikely to be the overall voter turnout that will determine the result: Most states are already won or lost, thanks to the winner take all approach by every state except Maine and Nebraska, leaving the result hinged on a handful of votes in the battleground or swing states. But given the personalities and issues at play, it's not the overall turnout that will determine the result. How big a part will Roe vs. Wade play? Or the situation in Gaza, Lebanon, and Israel? And even more recently, to what extent might the Hispanic turnout sway the result? For financial markets and global stability, the stakes are high, and the outcome will not only determine the next leader but also affect the ability to govern effectively, given the divided state of US politics. Questions surrounding inflation, federal debt, and the broader economic outlook have only added to the uncertainty. Yet amazingly, the result may come down to some little known, so-called comedian's off joke. Closer to home, in political news, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been hitting some turbulence (apologies for the pun) following claims that he sought free upgrades from Qantas. The story, which began with whispers, has escalated to full-blown denials, with frontbenchers clarifying that Albanese did not make any requests by phone, email, or any other means of communication. The whole affair has probably been blown out of all proportion - of course airlines upgrade politicians, and Qantas made an art form of it to curry political favour. The issue is not the upgrades or perks that are handed out - it is what influence is sought or exerted in return. In this case, what input did Albo or Albo's office have on the government's decision to block Qatar Airways application for an additional 28 flights a week into major Australian airports? A decision that massively benefited Qantas' traffic, passenger loads, market dominance and profitability, at the expense of the Australian traveling public. Alan Joyce's greed and arrogance eventually cost both he and his chairman their jobs. Might it also claim his old mate Albo's come election time? News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Magellan Global Quarterly Update | Magellan Asset Management Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund September 2024 Performance News TAMIM Fund: Global High Conviction Unit Class Insync Global Quality Equity Fund |
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25 Oct 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 25 October 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 25 October 2024 It's going down to the wire, and seemingly too close to call. The US election is now less than two weeks away, and with it will come all the drama, speculation, and, of course, the potential for significant economic consequences across the globe, and potentially social upheaval in the US itself. Here in Australia we're no strangers to feeling the ripple effects of US political shifts. If Donald Trump regains the presidency, we may be looking at a return to the good (or not so good) old days of trade tensions and tariffs, particularly with China. This could spell trouble for our commodities sector and create turbulence for market confidence - after all, the last thing our economy needs is another round of "trade war" antics. Meanwhile, back at home, the Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasurer Jim Chalmers are not exactly on the same page about inflation. Chalmers has been cautiously optimistic, pointing to the halving of inflation since Labor took office. But the RBA, led by Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, isn't ready to declare victory just yet. The RBA remains wary, maintaining that inflation is still proving to be a persistent thorn, and it'll take a while before we can truly say it's tamed. The cash rate, held at 4.35% for eleven months now, is staying put - the RBA wants more evidence before even considering an ease in rates. And it's no wonder they're being cautious. Global uncertainties, including the turmoil in the Middle East, are pushing investors into safe-haven assets like gold, which has reached record highs. The financial world might be feeling "spectacularly optimistic," but Hauser has made it clear that the RBA isn't buying into the hype just yet. Inflation forecasts from the RBA and the IMF are now closely aligned, underscoring the complexity of the current situation. Chalmers might be waving the flag of optimism, but the RBA is sticking to a message of patience - steady does it, until they're sure the inflation beast is fully under control. One thing's for sure: there's no shortage of interesting times ahead for the world, and with it, the Australian economy. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Investment Perspectives: 10 charts that recently caught our eye | Quay Global Investors September 2024 Performance News Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class) Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund |
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18 Oct 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 18 October 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 18 October 2024 Most economists are now convinced that yesterday's monthly labour force numbers released by the ABS have ruled out any chance of a rate cut this side of Christmas. For the record, for the past six months the unemployment rate has stayed steady around 4.1%, with 64,000 people joining the workforce in September, and the number of unemployed falling by 9,000. As the ABS pointed out, employment has risen by 3.1% in the past year, faster than the civilian population growth of 2.5%, taking the employment-to-population ratio to a new historical high of 64.4%. Even so, there are now 616,000 unemployed people, 90,000 more than there were in September last year, although that number is 93,000 fewer than there were pre-Covid when unemployment was at 5.2%. If those numbers sound confusing to you, join the club, but the ABS seemed to be able to make sense of them, as we suppose real economists do, which is what matters. Of course, behind the numbers were more details which caused a slanging match between the Treasurer Jim Chalmers and the opposition employment spokes-person, Michaelia Cash, who pointed to the fact that the majority of jobs growth in the past year - around 70% - has been in the government or "non-market" sectors of health, education and public service, leading to claims that the government was simply increasing the size of the bureaucracy to create jobs. Drilling down further, about 90% of the increase in hours worked was also in the non-market, and presumably lower-paid, sector. If you're one of those who are now employed the argument is academic (like so much of what goes down in Canberra) - a job is a job, and wages are wages - but it does emphasise another aspect of the current two speed nature of the economy. Private sector jobs are more likely to be higher paid, and one would think they in turn lead to additional flow on economic (jobs) growth. Meanwhile, back to the RBA, who had forecast that unemployment would be rising to 4.3% by the end of the year, which barring any unforeseen surprises, now seems unlikely. Hence the view from economists that the RBA will lag their overseas counterparts who have already started to cut rates in line with easing inflation. A speech this week from Sarah Hunter, RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) was entitled "Inflation Expectations - Why They Matter and How They Are Formed" and gave an inkling into the RBA's thought process. We're neither going to try to summarise it here (you can follow the link yourself if you'd like to) - nor claim to fully understand it all, but possibly the old saying that "perception is reality" sums it up: If everyone's perception is that inflation is high (and the media and one side or other of politics would suggest that it is) then that is the reality. As a result, it affects people's and businesses' economic decisions. However, Hunter finished her speech with the conclusion (amongst others) that it's a good news story with respect to expectations: Short-term expectations appear to be converging towards long-term ones, and recently they have been working to bring price expectations down faster. So maybe the RBA will deliver the experts (and borrowers) a surprise before Christmas after all? News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Manager Insights | Seed Funds Management Market Commentary - September | Glenmore Asset Management September 2024 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
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