Economists are idiots!

Yarra Capital Management

November 2022

Funds operated by this manager:

Stock Story: ASML

Magellan Asset Management

October 2022

Lithography is the process by which powerful, fast and cheap microchips are made. Advances in how lithography systems imprint electronic circuitry patterns on silicon wafers govern enhancements in microchips and memory.

In more detail, a lithography system is essentially a manufacturing machine whereby light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern to be printed. The system's optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer (whereby a wafer is covered with chemicals that react with light). A series of other non-lithography steps are also carried out. To make a microchip, the process is repeated layer upon layer to create the components of the chip including the transistors, which are miniaturised semiconductor devices. The most advanced chips have up to 150 layers. So advanced is lithography, the latest chips are printed at a scale of nanometres, where a nanometre is one billionth of a metre. The A16 processor in the iPhone 14 will contain about 16 billion transistors.

Lithography is so key to making the best microchips, the US stops the company that makes the most advanced of these manufacturing systems from selling its product to China.

That company is ASML. The Netherlands-based group sold 309 lithography systems on the way to earning revenue of 18.6 billion euros in fiscal 2021. The most advanced ASML lithography system today costs about 160 million euros.

ASML, which formed as a venture between Philips and ASMI of the Netherlands in 1984 and listed in 1995, extended its industry leadership in lithography with its development of 'extreme ultraviolet' lithography, which is an advance on its 'deep ultraviolet' lithography system. This system is regarded as the best system for reliably printing transistors on wafers at high volume using a light wavelength of just 13.5 nanometres.

ASML's customers are microchip manufacturers such as TSMC of Taiwan, Intel, Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix of Korea. All semiconductor producers rely on ASML's equipment to produce the most advanced chips. From an investor's point of view, ASML's technology leadership is its core competitive advantage that has given it an 83% stranglehold on one of the world's most crucial industrial systems. Nikon of Japan is ASML's nearest, even a distant, competitor.

Couldn't Nikon or another company invent a lithography system that betters that of ASML? Such questions have always existed but competitors have only fallen further behind over time. ASML's advantage is not in any singular aspect of the lithography system but across the many complex technologies, including the light source, optics, wafer stage, software, and process control, that need to come together in perfect unison. All of this would take incredible effort to replicate.

ASML has also set up a sophisticated production network underwritten by exclusive agreements whereby it outsources the making of components to about 4,000 companies around the globe. Many of the parts are complex. The mirrors in ASML's lithography machines, for instance, are the smoothest structures produced on earth. In fact, they are so flat, if someone expanded a mirror to the size of Victoria, the highest mountain would be 1 millimetre tall.

No rival, even if possessing a better design for a lithography system, could quickly or easily build a similar global manufacturing network. The biggest semiconductor manufacturers in the world have a vested interest in ASML's commercial success.

At the very least, it seems ASML is poised to hold onto its market dominance for the foreseeable future; in recent years, the company has widened its lead over competitors as it achieved double-digit sales growth. The stock is found in the Magellan global portfolio because ASML has the potential to generate excess returns on capital for the foreseeable future.

Even the best-placed companies, however, face challenges. Among threats to ASML, the shrinking of transistors could reach its physical limits in terms of tininess and finesse. If so, it would buy time for rivals to one day catch up to ASML's lithography standards. But somehow microchip-related technology keeps advancing. Another threat is the Chinese government. Beijing understands the strategic worth of microchips and is investing billions of dollars to catch up with the West and is willing to ignore patents to do so. ASML warned in February that an affiliate of a Chinese company it had accused of stealing its trade secrets is marketing products that could infringe on its intellectual property rights. Hence Washington is keen to keep ASML's lithography systems out of China.

ASML, however, has a record of delivering ever-improving lithography machines on time to its customers. If the company keeps doing that, investors will be looked after too.

Sources: ASML Annual Report 2021, company filings, Bloomberg and Dunn & Bradstreet. 

Funds operated by this manager:

Magellan Global Fund (Hedged), Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC, Magellan High Conviction Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged), MFG Core Infrastructure Fund

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Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Rob Hay, Head of Distribution & Investor Relations at Collins St Asset Management.

The Collins St Value Fund  has a track record of 6 years and 9 months and has outperformed the ASX 200 Total Return Index since inception in February 2016, providing investors with an annualised return of 14.17% compared with the index's return of 9.16% over the same period.

Rob also discussed Collins St Asset Management's new Fund, the Collins St Convertible Notes Fund.

Funds operated by this manager: Collins Street Value Fund, Collins St Convertible Notes Fund

This latest market rally provides investors

with another wonderful opportunity…

Wealthlander Active Investment Specialist

November 2022

The latest US CPI and PPI have come below consensus expectations, precipitating an equity market recovery. Is this the opportunity of a lifetime and the start of a new bull market after months of bear market pain?

Over a year ago, nearly everyone thought interest rates would have to be low for a very long time and according to central banks, inflation was transient. Hence, the shock of seeing inflation rise further and be anything but transient, combined with escalating geopolitical pressures, has turned 2022 into a harrowing year to remember. Rising inflation and escalating geopolitical risk were foreseeable. Despite this, the extent of the world's economic and political challenges has been a shock to all and sundry.

However, there is genuine cause for optimism that the worst of inflation and interest rate rises are now behind us. Bulls are excited because higher interest rates and persistent inflation have been the main cause behind the market's falls. With inflation pressures easing, for now at least, there is less need for further aggressive interest rate rises hurting stock valuations and economic values. This has precipitated a fierce equity market rally and challenged a bearish consensus in October. Bear market rallies can be aggressive and substantial in scope, and seasonally the market may be stronger post-mid-term elections and into Christmas.

Why then, isn't this the start of a new bull market for equities? The bulls are likely confusing a temporary market rally and opportunity with a permanent one. The lower inflation figures are not just due to a recovering supply chain but primarily due to economies slowing fast as the lagged effect of previous rate increases take their toll. Most importantly, an earnings recession is highly likely in 2023 as historically high margins continue to erode, and recession hits. Importantly, The US equity market isn't priced for recession. While risk assets may rally for a month or two, eventually they'll work out that inflation receding isn't occurring in a vacuum and that a recession is right in front of us in many countries around the world. If history is any guide, this may not only see us retest the equity market lows but possibly even break below this. To put numbers on this, S&P earnings in 2023 of 180 on a multiple of 16.5 could see the US S&P500 at 3000 in 2023, more than 25% below today's level of over 4000. While these figures and falls may appear dramatic, they are by no means unrealistic.

Hence a market rallying above 4000 likely provides another incredible opportunity - potentially the last one in this cycle (I have written about this before) - for investors to sell out of traditional risk-heavy portfolios in favour of less overvalued and better-suited investment approaches and assets for today's world.

The second reason the bulls may be wrong is that they continue to assume the Federal Reserve will pivot. But the FED is very unlikely to pivot today (cut interest rates) with inflation still too high, a rising stock market and loosening financial conditions unless a significant financial or economic event force them to. The latter means the market likely has to fall before a FED pivot occurs. The bulls may have their timing about a FED pivot wrong and may be entirely wrong if the FED raises further and then holds interest rates higher for longer - as they say they will. Jerome Powell has been clear that he wants to avoid making the mistake of his predecessors and ensure inflation is under control before changing track. He is emphasising the current data and not forward-looking data, having previously been heavily scarred by the FED's inaccurate economic forecasts; this is something the market doesn't seem to realise and means that the FED will likely still raise interest rates well beyond the point when they need to, again causing further damage to the economy and company earnings in 2023.

The third reason why the bulls may be wrong is that they may be utterly wrong about inflation. Services inflation may be more persistent even if goods inflation recedes somewhat. The latest CPI print benefits from a one-off improvement in health insurance inflation. While inflation may recede, it is unlikely to get to target and stay there in a favourable way. If geopolitical risks escalate further in the short term, energy and supply side issues may resume, and inflation may remain sticky and come back in another wave. The boomers may continue to spend and redeem their risky assets as inflationary expectations set in and they consider their lifetimes finite. Waves of higher inflation - or alternating inflation and deflation (i.e. unstable inflation outcomes) - would likely be extremely challenging for policymakers and markets alike, given current valuation levels.

It is also crucial to remember the big picture and see the forest for the trees.

The world and many countries appear to be run in no small part by many bad actors, including sociopaths, autocrats, criminals and frauds with scant regard for anything but their lust and greed. Is it any surprise then that bad things are happening to us? Is this a world which can effectively address some of the most significant governance challenges of all time - some of which require global coordination, including growing diplomatic, governance, corruption and environmental challenges? Some of these bad actors want war for various reasons including the opportunity for graft and funding of their war machines - as well as to further their power ambitions and vision of how the world should look. This could quickly turn the 2020s into one of the most dangerous decades the world has ever seen as our "leaders" take huge risks. They ultimately don't provide favourable asset price policy settings!

War tends to be inflationary or stagflationary and extremely wealth destructive if you're on the losing side or are occupied by enemies. Growing corruption turns previously wealthy societies into submerging markets and lowers asset valuations. Real growth is likely to be low for various reasons, including years of mal-investment, higher debt loads, ageing demographics and greater involvement of inefficient governments in capital allocation.

Furthermore, we are coming off one of the biggest bubbles of all time. Much wealth destruction is still required to realign asset values (still high) with the size of the actual underlying global economy and deteriorating real wealth and purchasing power. This will likely need to occur through both higher inflation and lower asset values, as it is unlikely to occur through productive economic growth. This also probably won't happen smoothly and will be a shock to many who remain confused about why markets don't always go up, having seen nothing else during their (historically short) careers, or who take their investment advice from promotional material, young and ignorant influencers or the mainstream media. FTX is an example of what happens when you do that and a warning sign to us all.

Note: To put numbers on this, S&P earnings in 2023 of 180 on a multiple of 16.5 could see the US S&P500 at 3000 in 2023, more than 25% below today's level of over 4000.  While these figures and falls may appear dramatic, they are by no means unrealistic (although are purely for demonstration purposes and do not represent forecasts).

In this environment, it is naïve and foolish to bet all on believing that good things will persistently happen to traditional risk-heavy portfolios, which depend on real growth happening, higher valuation levels and markets going up persistently. While equity markets still provide selective good long opportunities, these are the exception rather than the rule meaning the index and index-like approaches (so favoured for their "cheapness") are well past their use-by date. While we can all hope for a benign and highly favourable but less likely outcome, that is no way to invest safely. Markets are far more likely to range trade, meaning long-only managers will continue to provide among the poorest risk-adjusted returns and miss out on good opportunities to short overvalued loss-making enterprises. Historically, the 2020s are more likely to look more like the 1970s or the 1940s than the 2010s.

In this environment, better risk-adjusted returns will be achieved by genuine value-adding approaches and more active dynamic and long-short approaches that are better suited to today's macroeconomic conditions and which don't simply rely purely on markets going up to make money. While still capable of making returns, these strategies should be much less likely to lose substantial sums than buy-and-hold approaches - risk management and capital preservation is equally if not more important in this environment than seeking high returns

Buffett famously says that when the tide goes out, you see who has been swimming naked. If your superannuation fund, broker or fund manager is charging you to provide you with significant double-digit losses so far in 2022 (as we warned may would), perhaps take the hint while you still can and look around for a better option which has adapted to today's more challenging investment environment. 2022 is a year in which many are flying blind and as for years before that - well any fool can make money in a bull market and many fools did. Seek genuine diversification and preference good risk managers over speculation because the future is uncertain and risky. There will always be great opportunities to make money over time as the world changes, but this is most likely for those who (like it or not) assess and admit to what is going on with the world today. Avoiding and reducing the risk of significant losses is an excellent place to start.

Funds operated by this manager:

WealthLander Diversified Alternative Fund

DISCLAIMER: This Article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment or financial advice nor an offer to acquire a financial product. Before acting on any information contained in this Article, each person should obtain independent taxation, financial and legal advice relating to this information and consider it carefully before making any decision or recommendation. To the extent this Article does contain advice, in preparing any such advice in this Article, we have not taken into account any particular person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Furthermore, you may not rely on this message as advice unless subsequently confirmed by letter signed by an authorised representative of WealthLander Pty Ltd (WealthLander). You should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend you obtain financial advice specific to your situation before making any financial investment or insurance decision.  WealthLander makes no representation or warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up-to-date. To the extent permitted by law, we accept no responsibility for any misstatements or omissions, negligent or otherwise, and do not guarantee the integrity of the Article (or any attachments). All opinions and views expressed constitute judgment as of the date of writing and may change at any time without notice and without obligation. WealthLander Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR Number 001285158) of Boutique Capital Pty Ltd ACN 621 697 621 AFSL No.508011.

Global equities: It's time for 'Covid losers' to shine

Pendal

November 2022

A WEAKER earnings season in the US is indicating a recession is likely next year, but there is evidence it could be mild and short-lived as capital spending offsets slowing consumer demand, says Pendal's Ashley Pittard.

Nine in ten S&P 500 companies have reported their third quarter earnings, with results largely in line with analysts' expectations.

In a market where the average company typically beats earnings forecasts by 2.7 per cent, the overall picture is one of a weakening economy, says Pittard, who heads Pendal's global equities team.

Pittard says one of the most telling signals out of reporting season was the way companies were punished by the markets when they missed forecasts.

"On average, when a company missed this earnings season its share price fell more than 6 per cent. That's the biggest average fall ever. What that tells us is that we are at a tipping point in the markets," he says.

Mild recession

There was also a spike in the number of companies mentioning softening demand in their earnings reports this quarter. That's a measure that traditionally rises prior to a recession, says Pittard.

"In this earnings season, the number of companies mentioning weak demand is at the same highs as it was in the global financial crisis and Covid," he says.

Still, indications are that any recession should be mild because there are signs companies are stepping up their investment in rebuilding supply chains post the pandemic.

"Capital expenditure by corporations is up 24 per cent year on year — that's a real positive that may help any recession be milder," says Pittard.

"It's companies 're-shoring' supply chains and bringing jobs back to America."

To be sure, the strong US dollar is counting against corporate America, with the foreign exchange rate at its highest levels for seven years.

"It's a mixed bag. It's like a rip tide dragging out to sea while the tide's coming in — there's choppy waters ahead.

"You've got all of these positives, but you've also got a few negatives."

Which sectors look good in 2023

For global equities investors, the story of the coming year will be one of correcting a "misallocation of capital" that occurred during the pandemic, says Pittard.

"You don't want to be in the Covid winners, you want to be in the Covid losers.

"During the last few years there has been an over-investment into technology and the cloud and a misallocation away from industrials, supply chain, energy and those sorts of companies.

"You're now seeing that misallocation of capital unwind."

He points to "strong-demand" commentary from companies like Delta Airlines, United Airlines and Visa, alongside negative commentary from Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Google.

United claimed there had been a "permanent structural change in leisure demand because of the flexibility that hybrid work allows", saying "this is not pent-up demand. It's the new normal".

Visa said consumers are "still spending the same amount of money… as they did before".

Meanwhile Microsoft and Meta announced layoffs, along with a slew of other US tech companies.

Microsoft reported "materially weaker PC demand" and Google noted a "pull-back in spend" by advertisers.

Look to industrial and financial stocks

"It's that misallocation of capital that will drive the hits and misses on the markets," says Pittard,

"If you look at new job postings, they are down 50 per cent from their peak of 2021 and 41 per cent of consumers are saying it's tough paying their bills compared to 38 per cent in Covid.

"There's no doubt stresses are increasing. There's no doubt the macro is getting weaker.

"But as an investor, you want to look through it.

"Our cash level is at the lowest that it's ever been, but you've got to have the tide going with you.

"That's why the answer is the industrial companies and the financials.

"Dividend yield on the banks is more than 8 per cent.

"If you hold those kinds of stocks, you're getting paid to just wait for the economy to turn around."

Author: Ashley Pittard, leads Pendal's Global Equities investment boutique

Funds operated by this manager:

This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at December 8, 2021. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund (Fund) ARSN: 623 987 968. A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient's personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com

The Long and The Short: Five stocks for the next five years

Kardinia Capital

November 2022

Funds operated by this manager:

The content contained in this article represents the opinions of the authors. The authors may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the article. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely as an avenue for the authors to express their personal views on investing and for the entertainment of the reader.

Investing in climate adaptation for a resilient world

abrdn

November 2022

Funds operated by this manager:

Aberdeen Standard Actively Hedged International Equities Fund, Aberdeen Standard Asian Opportunities Fund, Aberdeen Standard Australian Small Companies Fund, Aberdeen Standard Emerging Opportunities Fund, Aberdeen Standard Ex-20 Australian Equities Fund (Class A), Aberdeen Standard Focused Sustainable Australian Equity Fund, Aberdeen Standard Fully Hedged International Equities Fund, Aberdeen Standard Global Absolute Return Strategies Fund, Aberdeen Standard Global Corporate Bond Fund, Aberdeen Standard International Equity Fund , Aberdeen Standard Life Absolute Return Global Bond Strategies Fund, Aberdeen Standard Multi Asset Real Return Fund, Aberdeen Standard Multi-Asset Income Fund

^{1 Discussion of individual securities in this article is for informational purposes only and not meant as a buy or sell recommendation nor as an indication of any holdings in our products.}

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Equitable Investors

November 2022

Funds operated by this manager:

Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund

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