Bond yields fall to all time lows - or less - on inflation expectations

This week saw the first instance of a negative interest rate bond issue by the Australian government. Now while the bond market in Australia is not as well understood or as large as it is overseas, and as such it didn't make the front pages of even the financial press, the event is pretty significant.

For the record the actual negative interest rate was -0.07%, so in actual terms it's pretty marginal, as was the size at $200m of the actual issuance. Equally the 10 year bond yield traded at an all time low yesterday of 2.27% per annum yesterday. However the reality is that some investors have bought Australian government bonds on which they will effectively PAY the government 0.07% per annum for the privilege. As the good doctor would once have said: "why is it so"?

Our understanding is threefold: firstly various investors and institutions in Australia are required to hold a portion of their assets in government bonds. In that event they have no choice, although they do have a choice of which issue to invest in.

Secondly, overseas investors believing that their currency (such as the Yen) might actually fall vs the A$ will be playing the currency trade.

Finally the fact that this issue attracts a negative interest rate is an indication that inflation, (currently 1.7% pa) going forward is expected to fall further, and remain below the RBA's official cash rate. This historically low inflation rate is a real concern for the government and the economy, even though it may be welcomed by sections of the community, simply because it indicates limited, or potentially zero (or worse) economic growth.

Which leads us to the government's more immediate issue, namely the forthcoming budget.

One somewhat tricky point for the government while trying to manage the economy is that they comprehensively fluffed last year's budget to the extent that various measures have yet to pass the Senate. So lopsided, and in our humble opinion, poorly devised and subsequently communicated was last year's budget that many of its key features have had to be abandoned, and in doing so any element of political capital the government might have had has now evaporated.

So just when the country is in desperate need of long-term thinking and budgetary reform, it is unlikely we are going to get it. Having just announced a tax White Paper the Prime Minister has already ruled out various options (including the abolition or scaling back of negative gearing) that might have been recommended simply because they would be politically unacceptable to the government's support base.

Equally it would appear that any change to the GST, whether by increasing the current rate from 10 to 15%, to bring it more in line with most other developed countries, or by broadening it to include the other half of the economy which is currently GST free, would seem to be a bridge too far for the government's current standing in the opinion polls. Hence the only real GST debate we are currently seeing is the squabbling between State premiers, which make them look much like siblings or cousins at the reading of great aunt Thelma's will.

As a result it looks like this year's budget will include the usual tinkering around the edges, some of which will be unpopular and some popular, but all with an eye on how many votes might be won or lost as a result. Sadly what we need is a strong and reforming government which can make the hard but necessary decisions to overcome the current budget woes and set the country on the course of a sustainable economic footing.

Specific results received this week include the following MARCH PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

The Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund returned 3.59%, to being the performance over the latest 3 months to 6.40%.

Laminar Credit Fund rose 0.54%, to bring the Fund's annual performance since inception to 19.33% pa.

The Monash Absolute Investment Fund returned 1.1% in March, when the Australian Equity Market fell slightly -0.09%.

QATO Capital Market Neutral Long/Short Fund rose 3.12%, bringing the Fund's performance for the last 6 months to 25.16%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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Absolute Return: Chasing Yield - high risk, but is there no alternative?

A recently published report from S&P Dow Jones comparing Index versus Active Funds gained (not surprisingly) some coverage this week, primarily as it showed that in the six months to December 2015 Active funds had underperformed Index funds (and therefore presumably the index itself). The S&P scorecard showed that 8 out of 10 Australian active funds had underperformed their benchmark in all the major sectors barring domestic small caps.

However Active funds come in all shapes and sizes, and AFM's figures for equity based Absolute Return funds for the 12 months to December 2014 show that 60% outperformed the ASX200 accumulation index. To be fair that percentage has dropped somewhat for the 12 months to March 2015, thanks largely to the market's return of almost 7% in February, taking the YTD return to 10.29%.

A swift response from Epoch Investment Partners ensued pointing out the distorting effect of QE which was creating a false investment environment, and that talented active "stock-picking" managers would prove their value again once QE had passed. Actually, QE has already finished in the US, although the effects are lasting longer than imagined, while in other parts of the world it is ongoing.

In Australia QE was avoided, probably in part thanks to the mining boom which most will have noticed is long gone, and now in bust mode, relatively speaking. However interest rates remain in a downward trajectory, with the economy appearing close to stagnation, with Sydney's property boom probably the only thing preventing the RBA from cutting rates a further 25 bps earlier this week.

However, investor's obsession with the yield play, described by Optimal Australia's George Colman in their most recent performance report as TINA, or "There Is No Alternative" is indicative of the distorting effect of the current interest rate environment, which is making it difficult, or at least expensive for long/short managers to either short poor stocks which are benefitting from the rising tide, or be comfortable holding good stocks at seemingly unattractive prices.

As many managers, including Optimal, are pointing out, this must all end in tears eventually, and even though portfolio insurance is a difficult and costly exercise, this is certainly no time to drop it. As an example, even though only 28% of results are to hand for March, equity based hedge funds returned 1.39% for the month, against the market's flat (-0.09%) return.

Specific results received this week include the following RECENT PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Alpha Beta Asian Fund rose 0.45% to bring the Fund's return since inception to 21.40%.

The KIS Asia Long Short Fund was flat (0.09%) in February. Since inception the Fund's annual return was 14.61% p.a.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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Perception versus Reality

Shock horror in the life insurance sector this week with the suggestion that trailing commissions should be limited or banned, and that the overall level of sales payments to life agents should be curtailed.

Given the recent debate over the potential conflicts caused by commissions for sales of financial services and products, and the overall debate over FoFA, it is hardly surprising that the spotlight has finally fallen on life insurance. The problem is real, and the concept of providing a product or solution that is in the best interest of the client, as opposed to the advisor/sales person, equally real.

However, in the vast majority of cases advisors put their clients' best interests first, in spite of the high profile failures, which have dominated headlines over the past couple of years at the big end of town at CBA and NAB. These of course have tarnished the whole industry, and headlines in the media have only helped - along with some opportunistic comment from politicians of one persuasion or another - to create the perception that there's no such thing as independent when it comes to the provision of financial advice.

It doesn't take much for the perception of an industry to become the reality in many people's minds, and once that occurs only drastic action, or regulation, and the passage of time will change it.  

Elsewhere this week there are ongoing signs that although the search for yield in the current low to negative real interest rate environment will inevitably continue, the resulting stretched valuations in asset prices - equities and real estate in particular - are a cause for concern. The chairman of ANZ, David Gonski, was reported to be suggesting that the RBA should cease further rate cuts, while others have suggested that for the Australian banking sector things are about as good as they get.

Bank margins are being squeezed by low rates, and while asset growth outside the housing sector is low or limited, housing prices are overly stretched, and are being pressured further by population growth and the emphasis on lending for investment as opposed to owner occupiers. Investment in the mining and resources sector has fallen sharply (probably an understatement!) as a result of falling commodity prices, which in itself is not helping the government's budget woes.

Australia is not alone in facing structural problems, with the recent announcement that inflation in the UK is officially negative for the first time in history. We are certainly living in uncertain times, and the effects of 2008, and the reaction of central banks and QE since then, suggest that we are in uncharted waters.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Avenir Value Fund rose 7.8% during February to bring the Fund's Annual Return since inception to 17.00% per annum.

The Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund performance in February was flat (0.05%) following a 3-month gain of 8.85%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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What difference a word makes!

Everyone understands that markets are waiting for the inevitable rate rise in the US, but it was not until this week that it became apparent that those same markets are hanging out not just for the latest economic statistics, nor for the latest pronouncements from the US Federal Reserve. What became apparent this week was that markets are reacting (or should that be overreacting?) to the slightest nuance in Fed speak.

This time it was the Fed's removal of the word patient from their statement, although it was helped along by a lowering of their economic and inflation outlook. This saw market expectations for rate rise pushed out by two or three months. As a result the US dollar's recent rise came to an abrupt halt, and equity markets soared.

So the question is that if markets can react so dramatically on the basis of the removal of one word, and the delay of the inevitable rate rise of somewhere between one and three months, how are they going to react when that inevitability turns to fact?

As much as Janet Yellen and her US Central Bank colleagues would like to smooth and calm markets by managing their expectations, all the indications are that the herd is likely to break from a trot into a stampede when she finally makes her move.

Locally the ASX200 has risen over 12% year to date, approximately double its rise in 2014 as a whole, as investors' expectations for a rate cut remain on track, in spite of the slump in commodity prices, and the longer term outlook for the federal budget deficit which only Tony Abbott himself now seems to see as a problem.

We remain concerned about the government's seeming inability to communicate effectively at nearly any level, be it one on one in the Senate, or more broadly with the electorate via the media where their credibility seems limited at best, and a boring budget in a couple of months won't help. Consumer and business confidence is significantly at risk as a result.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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IMR moves a little closer, and what's Joe Hockey up to?

This week we're pleased to see that a little more than five years after the Johnson Report's recommendation, Treasury has announced Element 3 of the Investment Management Regime, or at least draft legislation relating thereto, and is inviting comment on the design of the amendments, the purpose of which is to enable offshore investors to invest via local fund managers without being penalised as a result of Australia's peculiar, if not unique, managed fund tax structures.

For those wanting more information, please click here.

Regular recipients of Hedge Clippings would be well aware that our weekly commentary can stray from the topic of managed funds, occasionally commenting on the economy, markets, regulations, and even politics, or at least the impact of our various political masters on such matters, although we do try to keep on track (up to a point).

There are reasons for this, including the obvious one that such matters, particularly regulations, do impact on markets and therefore managed funds. There are others of course, including the fact that our Friday lunchtimes are spent writing and editing Hedge Clippings, and thus we might possibly still be appropriately focussed, while many recipients of Clippings will hopefully be significantly more realxed, or well on thier way to getting there.

So for those less interested in the IMR mentioned above, has anyone else been concerned that our erstwhile treasurer, Joseph Benedict Hockey, seems to have spent the best part of the past week in court defending his reputation, rather than attending to the business of running the country's finances?

Maybe it's because his first budget, introduced a full ten months ago, was so inept, imbalanced, and, even according to his own colleagues, poorly sold (sorry, "communicated" to the electorate) that it has yet to be passed in full, while many of the more contentious issues have been dropped that he's trying to divert attention away from his performance as Treasurer.

Maybe, in spite of the fact that as a long term (although maybe not that much longer) politician he really is so thin skinned that he was genuinely offended by the suggestion that allowing some lucky constituents to pay $22,000 for the benefit of having privileged access to him questioned his integrity.

Maybe it's because payments received as a result of successful defamation actions are, we understand, not taxable.

Whichever or whatever it is, we're not sure the electorate is getting its money's worth.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

KIS Asia Long Short Fund returned -0.35% in January bringing the Fund's annual return since inception to 14.83%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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The Intergenerational Report seems to state the bleedin' obvious!

One of the clearest (and concerning) presentations we have seen in the past few months on the problems that Australia is facing was given by John Daley, the CEO of the Grattan Institute. His views were reaffirmed in Wednesday's Editorial & Opinion section of the Australian Financial Review.

Put simply Daley's argument is that based on current facts and future assumptions the government's income and expenditure outlook is broken. The current budget deficit of around $40 billion a year is not going to be fixed in short-term, and unless it is addressed, it's going to get worse.

We have an ageing population, which apart from the social, health and demographic issues is going to result in increasing pressures on the budget, with a larger proportion of the population relying on welfare, and a smaller proportion (62% by 2050) of the population in the workforce and therefore contributing tax revenue.

As Janine Perrett from the Switzer Report noted today governments need the vision and political will (both of which in her opinion are totally lacking today) which enabled superannuation and the GST to be introduced which were both big picture innovations that have had significant ramifications since.

Whether either side of politics currently has either vision or political will is debatable. However the current system where everyone wants more from the government, either in the form of handouts or taxation concessions, while paying less tax, is simply not going to solve the problem.

Sooner or later the current sacred cows such as concessional superannuation taxation in retirement phase, negative gearing, and welfare for the wealthy are going to have to be addressed. Sooner or later one side of politics or the other, preferably both, are going to have to bite the bullet and increase and broaden the GST.

In our mind the sooner the better because in the meantime we are just digging the hole, out of which we will all have to climb, deeper.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

In January, Alpha Beta Asian Fund returned -1.30%, bringing the Fund's return since inception to 20.90%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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The X factor and unconventional wisdom.

Conventional wisdom within the Australian financial services sector says that local fund managers are at a significant disadvantage when it comes to raising significant amounts of FUM, whether from local or overseas investors. By conventional, we would include David Murray and his FSI panel, most local fund managers, and the majority of offshore institutional investors.

The main benefit Australian managers have comes from managing local Australian assets on behalf of local Australian investors. When it comes to managing offshore assets, and equities in particular, for offshore investors that is considered more than an uphill battle for an Australian born, bred and domiciled fund manager.

What then is the difference or the X factor with Magellan Financial Group, who released their interim results this week? Ignoring their financial results, and focusing on the extent and source of their Funds under Management would indicate that either conventional wisdom is simply wrong, or there's more to it than that.

In the six months to December 2014 Magellan increased their FUM from $23.5 to $31.6 billion, with the offshore component increasing from $13.9 to $19.6 billion. No doubt the fall in the A$ has assisted in raising the overall FUM figure, but it doesn't factor in the fact that in spite of being a relatively young manager (having started out from a standing start in July 2007) 62% of that FUM comes from overseas institutional investors.

I'm sure there's not one single reason, with strategy, structure, market capacity, management, marketing and distribution all playing their part. However performance since inception has been good without being stellar. In fact between launching in July 2007 and July 2011 the Magellan Global Fund had gained a cumulative 1.01% inclusive of distributions net of fees. To be sure the fund's performance then accelerated though to December 2013 to be up a cumulative 96% courtesy of a 48% return that year, before going sideways for the following eight months and then lifting in the final quarter of 2014.

Whatever the X factor is, full marks to the Magellan team. They've proven that local Australian fund managers can compete on the global as well as the local stage in spite of being geographically challenged.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Bennelong Alpha 200 Fund returned 2.18% during January 2015, bringing the fund's annual return to 4.13% since inception.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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Difference of opinion is what makes a market.

AFM's "Looking Forward Looking Back" seminar, held yesterday in conjunction with Deloitte provided attendees with a reasonably universal view of the economic world and the challenges facing it, but some significantly different opinions on the level of risk faced, and the eventual outcomes.

The introductory presentation addressed, and we hope answered, the question of whether hedge funds are risky or risk averse? The facts plainly speak for themselves, with the sector providing 1 to 2% higher returns than the ASX 200 accumulation index over each of one, five and 10 years, but on average with half the market's volatility.

Following this Michael Thomas from Deloitte Access Economics provided a presentation on the Australian economic outlook, following which he joined a panel of fund managers including Simon Shields from Monash Investors, John Corr from Aurora Funds Management, Monic Kotecha from InSync Funds Management, and finally George Colman from Optimal Australia.

As indicated above there was generally a standard view of where the world stands, and the challenges (particularly low growth, low to negative interest rates, high levels of central bank intervention, and the potential for deflation) which it faces. That's about where the consensus ended, with significantly different views on what might happen when, or if the music ever stops.

The most bearish of the participants was George Colman from Optimal Australia, who interestingly noted that they launched their fund in 2008 on the same day that Lehman Bros filed for bankruptcy. In spite of that the fund has managed to return an annualised 9.23% over the following 6 1/2 years, during which time their largest drawdown has been just 2.75% (against the market's largest drawdown of 33%) George was of the opinion that 2014 was one of the most difficult years he had experienced in his 25 years in the financial markets.

George was unequivocally of the view that the distortion to financial markets caused by the unprecedented levels of central bank intervention, and the stretched valuations that have occurred as a result, could only end in tears once interest rates started to rise.

Sharing George's negative view was John Corr from Aurora Funds Ltd, who also added his concern regarding the ongoing political instability in Australia. While political instability in Australia takes a different form to that experienced in many other parts of the world, his concern was the level of influence exerted by minor parties, which along with a fickle electorate was preventing electing governments from making the hard decisions necessary to resolve structural problems within the economy.

John also felt the market was expensive, and although he did not feel that a large pullback was imminent he did note concern around the stretched pricing of the financial sector. For the record Aurora's Fortitude Absolute Return Fund has returned 7.38% over 10 years, all of which have provided positive returns with a largest drawdown of 2.09% and volatility of just 2.71% against the market's volatility of 13.88%.

Monik Kotecha from InSync's Global Titans Fund (annualised returns of 11.22% over five years with the largest drawdown of just 4.39%) had a somewhat different view of the outcome, possibly as a result of his investment universe being global mega stocks. His feedback was that company management continues to report business conditions as being very difficult, particularly in Europe where sales growth is flat, although the weaker Euro is expected to improve export opportunities.

Of interest was the fact that InSync normally runs put protection at about 25% of the portfolio, whilst at the current time it is around 80% even though much of this is largely due to the fact that put protection is currently very cheap - at odds with the general concerns about risk.

Finally the most positive of the four was Simon Shields from Monash Investors, whose Absolute Investment Fund has returned 16.6% per annum (over a shorter time frame than the other panellists albeit with a slightly higher volatility). Whilst noting that the market overall is quite expensive Simon still felt it offered opportunities, feeling that any pullback was not imminent, and in any event was unlikely to be as severe as predicted by his more bearish panel members.

One reason provided by Simon for his view was the rise of the global middle-class as a major economic factor, and his feeling that this demographic change had some time to run, whilst he was also bullish on technology and its impacts on the economy.

Whether one's prediction of the outcome sits at the bearish end as outlined by George Colman and John Corr, or the more opportunistic approach from Simon and Monik will depend on one's view of the world, but what did not seem to be in question was that we are living in in unprecedented economic times - with risks that are high, and the outcome uncertain.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Morphic Global Opportunities Fund rose 4.42% in January 2015 (Global Equity Index 3.27%) with a volatility of 8.68%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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Expect the unexpected!

A few years ago there was a rush of newspeak around the known knowns, and known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. It was all a little confusing (especially when written like that) and mainly emanated out of US military and political circles, particularly Donald Rumsfield. Thankfully, here at least, the fad passed. But it did make us think about the unexpected, and the old market adage to expect the unexpected.

To be fair the market has seen a fair number of expectations come to pass over the past 12 months, including the well telegraphed end of QE in the US, the inevitability of the ECB's own stimulus program, and although not universally expected, a slowdown in the growth of China's economy.

However there have also been some unexpected and significant market moves over the past six months: Few, if any expected the Swiss to remove the cap on their currency which resulted in the Swiss Franc jumping 15% overnight. Few expected the price of oil to halve. Equally three months ago few would have expected a rally in the Australian equity market of 10% in just eleven days this early in the new year.

But then few were expecting a rate cut of 0.25% in February either, whilst now the expectation is for a cut of a further 0.25% in the next few months. To put the market's rise of 10% in context, the ASX200 (excluding dividends) only rose 1.4% in the whole of 2014, so there'll finally be some happy investors around, particularly those focusing on stocks within the yield theme such as Telstra and the banks.

The question for local investors is whether this can continue, or is this as good as it gets? A further rate cut, and a weaker A$ will no doubt fuel the rally further, but one wonders how long OPEC will continue to pump oil at these levels, and therefore subsidise the price of petrol. However, the opposite side of the cause of the rate cut is falling consumer and business confidence, neither of which will have been improved by the current state of play within the government in Canberra.

We have repeatedly warned that sooner or later interest rates WILL increase, certainly from their near zero or negative levels overseas, whereupon there's likely to be outflows from equity markets. When, or by how much is not known, but when it does occur we suspect it will be a case of expect the expected.

Which I suppose brings us back to hedge funds, and their core purpose of avoiding risk and the danger of the unexpected. Taken over a range of periods equity hedge funds have consistently outperformed the ASX200 Accumulation index.  Over 2014 they returned 7.6% (vs ASX200 5.61%); annualised over five years 8.84% (vs ASX200 6.75%) and over ten years, 9.71% (vs ASX200 7.55%). Over each time frame that's an excess return of over 2%, which over ten years would leave investors 22% better off. Most importantly this has been achieved with around half the volatility and drawdown of the equity market.

There's no doubt a clever line in there somewhere about hedge funds and the unknown unknowns, but as we noted at the beginning thankfully that fad has passed.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

KIS Asia Long Short Fund returned 0.26% during December and 4.76% for 2014 with a volatility of 2.72%.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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Last week "Hedge Clippings" noted that while negative, or historically low interest rates around the world caused by QE in the US and European and Japanese Central Bank Intervention (CBI) is working up to a point, it is still a great experiment that we had to have to avoid a complete meltdown during and post the GFC. As such, the end outcome has yet to be determined.

China's economy is still a question mark, although is likely to be a major beneficiary of the lower energy prices - if and while they last. The crackdown on the margin lending which has helped to push the Shanghai market so strongly over the past six months will however be interesting.

Europe won't respond to CBI the way the US did to QE simply because there are 28 different economies and nationalities at work. It is not universal. The world is facing deflation and 0% or negative interest rates, and as we indicated in last week's Hedge Clippings there's likely to be tears before bedtime.

The question is when? Investors will continue to chase whatever yield they can find, and bank deposits aren't where they will find attractive returns for a while. Hence equity markets, and particularly the six great dividend payers in Australia (the big four banks, Wesfarmers and Telstra) although expensive on most counts, will remain well supported, as evidenced by the Commonwealth Bank hitting $90 today.

So there's a significant anomaly: In spite of the risk of concentration in just a handful of stocks, and in spite of the risk of buying assets which on any normal valuation are significantly overpriced, investors are still happily allocating to equities and if the RBA cuts rates again next Tuesday as many expect, are likely to continue to do so. Meanwhile more and more commentators and fund managers are warning of the risks.

They are doing so on the assumption there won't be any shocks to the system, be it an economic or political black swan event, which of course can't be ruled out. For example, oil prices halving in 6 months out of the blue is likely to cause some serious pain in some sectors of the US (shale oil) market and in Russia, even if we can now afford to fill the car's petrol tank.

So what to do? A sensible investor (if they believe the nervous nellies) might buy some insurance in the form of long dated out of the money index put options. Or just continue to dance until the music stops, and hope for the best.

But hope is generally not considered to be the best strategy.

Specific results received this week include the following PERFORMANCE UPDATES:

Paragon Fund returned -0.50% (ASX 200 Accum 2.06%) during December with annual returns at 16.09% (Index 5.61%) with a volatility 15.16% (Index 10.95%).

The Pengana Absolute Return Asia Pacific Fund returned 0.74% in December and 6.20% for the year with a volatility of 2.79% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.29.

Auscap Long Short Australian Equities Fund recorded a return of 0.44% in December with the annual return 23.17% and a volatility of 7.46%.

The Avenir Capital Value Fund returned -4.42% during December 2014 with annual performance of 15.38% and volatility of 11.11% since inception.

Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS

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