Hedge Clippings | Friday 22 November, 2019

Hedge Clippings remains in distant parts, and thus well out of the daily face-to-face contacts we're used to, and with limited access to the usual internet and email overload we're normally dependant on. The challenge, therefore, is to pick up what one can - partly to keep in touch with events in Australia, and possibly bring some relevance from an offshore perspective.

Over the past months it would be impossible not to have noticed an increase in anti-Chinese rhetoric in Australia, possibly partly in response to Donald Trump's trade war, but also locally as well.  This has seemingly ramped up this week with former ASIO director Duncan Lewis saying that the Chinese government is trying to "take over" Australia's political system through foreign influence operations, with any person in office a potential target.

The same goes for business and commerce in general.

We might think the Chinese government is focusing on Australia, but this situation seems to be replicated around the globe. Currently we're in Barbados, famous for Sir Garfield Sobers' exploits in the cricket pitch, and of course rum, which by the way is excellent! The point is that even on this tiny speck of an island (21 miles by 14), and throughout the region, today we had exactly the same conversation with a leading local business identity.

Moving on, it seems that Australia's economic growth forecast has been downgraded, which shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. Household debt is at record levels fuelled by ultra low-interest rates which are likely to go lower. In response the government has announced a major $3.8 billion infrastructure investment program, but is it enough?

Hedge Clippings has long called for an investment of superannuation fund assets into infrastructure.  Both have a long term horizon, and one would have thought the political or legislative issues to be easily managed.

The infrastructure sector is of increasing size and interest in AFM's database. Steady returns, steady income streams, and both local and offshore exposure - both to emerging and developed economies. Watch this space!

Hedge Clippings | Friday 15 November, 2019

As indicated last week, this edition of Hedge Clippings comes to you from London. From the outset we'll seek forgiveness for typos, or ramblings over and above the norm, which we will put down to the effects of jet lag. It is irrelevant which end of the plane you are in, 24 hours cooped up with 450 others in a noisy tube and an 11 hour time difference at the other end is no fun.

Hedge Clippings has yet to establish the best routine to handle long distance flights. One school of thought is the David Boon approach: Stay awake, if barely conscious, while consuming as much alcohol as possible. That certainly makes the flight more bearable, simply because by the time one is flying over Darwin the senses become, shall we say, "dulled".

Alternatively, take the airline's good advice; drink plenty of water, avoid alcohol, and put up with the discomfort, bored out of your tree. And try to resist the atrocious food, which in any other environment you wouldn't feed your dog. We're now of the opinion that the onboard food is as bad for jet lag as the booze. Hedge Clippings' solution: Stay hungry, both during the flight and post arrival, and if you can find such a thing in London, hit the (good) caffeine.

But we digress. There's an election in the UK in less than a month, and the outcome will determine Britain's future for some time to come - if not forever. We had thought the result could go either way given the variables at stake, but based on a very small survey, the feedback is for a Boris victory.

Firstly, a couple in their 60's who voted to remain in the referendum, along with their children. Wind forward three years and they're sick of the whole thing and just want to get on with it, as do, less enthusiastically, their children.

Next, a more analytical view following a meeting with Chris Watling of Longview Economics, who in their usual fashion have numerically quantified their forecast result - namely that Jeremy Corbyn's Labour is committing political Hari Kari, and that Boris Johnson, having hit the ground stumbling, is likely to end up with a likely majority of 60 to 90 seats - if not more.

Longview's senior market strategist, Harry Colvin, goes on to conclude that "that outcome should crystallise certainty in markets around (i) the shape of Brexit, and (ii) business friendly government policies.  

There are reasons given for their view, with extensive and detailed analysis as usual, including no compulsory voting, and the UK's "first past the post" system. Not to mention that it seems Jeremy Corbyn's extreme socialist views are a step (or ten) too far to the left, akin to him committing political Hari Kari.

If you're into the minutiae of UK politics, Longview's definitely worth a week-end read.

Hedge Clippings | Friday 01 November, 2019

An article today on Financial Standard quoting Rainmaker data reports only 10% of Australian Large Cap equity funds outperformed the market in the 12 months to 30 June.

Aside from the fact that the information is a little out of date (see chart below for AFM distribution of returns data to the end of September - all funds all strategies), large-cap equities is a hard space to significantly outperform, particularly in the current environment. Large cap stocks dominate the market and drive its overall return. There are numerically more opportunities OUTSIDE the ASX Top 20 or Top 50 or even the Top 200 even though their volatility might be higher. And outside the Top 200 companies are flying well beneath broker's research and with significantly higher growth opportunities.

AFM's data above shows around 20% of all funds outperformed the ASX accumulation index's 19.29% return over the past 12 months. It's worth remembering that 19% is a pretty impressive return as well - nice to have, but investors can't expect that every year. However, as we're never tired of pointing out, that's an average, and averages mask the real outperformers - and the underperformers.

Moving on to underperformers of a different kind, Bill Shorten was well and truly outed this week - although for most people it didn't require an internal review by the Labor party to work out why he lost the unlosable election. No doubt complacency came into it, but the internal review seemed to spare former shadow Treasurer Bowen for his franking credit policy - and gaffe of telling voters if they didn't like it, vote elsewhere. Labor alienated key sections of the community, many of them committed Labor voters, but particularly retirees, and in Queensland, miners.

Hedge Clippings is heading to London next week, not necessarily to get a first-hand view of the Johnson/Corbyn election battle, although it will be useful to gauge the mood, albeit briefly. Of more interest will be the mood of the managed fund sector, and the potential impact of Brexit, or the possibility of a truly socialist government in the UK to boot. Given that voting is not compulsory, and with winter approaching, one would think the weather could have a significant impact on the outcome of a December 12 poll, as could the impact of dissatisfied voters moving to the minor parties.

Hedge Clippings | Friday 01 November, 2019

The front page article in today's Financial Review suggests there could, or should, be only one rule to determine the legal obligation when providing a financial service: ""Be Fair". If only it were so simple!

Acting fairly, efficiently and honestly - enshrined in Corporations Law - should be a pretty straightforward and simple task, but in reality it is anything but simple, or straightforward.

The difficulty of course is that fairness, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. What might seem fair (and/or reasonable) to most of us, might not seem so straightforward to others. This is not only applicable to financial services, but every other facet of life. As business and social values change and adjust over time or across borders, how do those determining what's fair decide if party A has broken the fairness rules, let alone the law?

Fairness used to be something taught in kindergarten, or a code of conduct to be displayed on the sporting field. With the rise of professional sport that seems to have gone out the window, and that might give a clue to the problems with fairness in financial services - PROFIT!

For some years now Hedge Clippings has been lamenting the fact that there has been a general decline in moral values, and this has infected business, and particularly the financial sector. And yet paradoxically there is greater awareness around other aspects of behaviour, and an increasing consciousness of our moral obligations to society.

So is it just the profit motive, or lure of the big bucks or bonus, or just a change in standards? After all, society changes over time, and what might have passed as reasonable a century ago is now most likely to cause an outcry - and vice versa.

The difficulty is in the definition. I may know what I believe is fair - or unfair as the case may be - and have a very black and white view on it. But I'm not sure in the politically correct world in which we now live I'm even able to describe it in that way for fear of it being labelled a racist term.

Changing tack slightly, and ignoring my natural bias, it would be completely UNFAIR if England didn't win the RWC tomorrow night given they played an entertaining style of rugby last week when South Africa were boring.

Hedge Clippings | Friday 25 October, 2019

Equity Returns - are investors expecting too much?

An article published in the business section of the ABC News website on Thursday provided an insight and research into investor's expectations of annual returns from the share market.  Australian investors at 10.7% came in around the global average of 10.9%, while American investors at 12.4% were more optimistic, and Europeans were more cautious at 9% (understandably, in Hedge Clippings' opinion).

The article quoted Sally, an investor who, having been invested in the local market via ETF's for the last 18 months, is happy with her return of 9% but would like a little more - in line with the survey results. With interest rates and returns on cash at close to zero, or term deposits at 2% if you're lucky, we understand the attraction of equities at around 10% plus the potential for some franking credits.

Our concern is that Sally (and others) haven't factored in equity risk, and the potential loss of her capital. Has she been lulled into a false sense of security by a market buoyed by low interest rates, and marketing of ETFs and passive investing at low fees?

Taking a look at the ASX200 Accumulation Index, she's on track over 5 years, and the same over the longer term, 25 years. However, her risk is hidden in the 1 to 5 year returns:

The sting, of course, is in the tail, or in this case the GFC, which some might consider a one-off event. However, the market fell around the same amount in 1987, and while the trigger might have been different, the pain was the same.

Those in favour of index investing and ETF's can and will say you can exit when you want to, but will Sally know when to do so, particularly when everyone else, including mutual funds, are doing the same?

So, how have actively managed equity funds performed over the same period? Taken as an average, as follows:

Whilst the may have underperformed over the shorter time frames, the key is the reduction in risk, as shown by the maximum drawdown of -23% in the GFC.

That's the average of all equity-based funds in AFM's database, but using the old "head in the freezer, toes in the oven = average" analogy, what about the top tier funds:

Of course, selecting the top funds - which can vary over time - is not easy. However, careful research, and appropriate diversification across manager, strategy, market sector and geographic region could provide Sally with attractive returns without the same level of risk.

Hedge Clippings | Friday 18 October, 2019
 

Hedge Clippings | Friday 11 October, 2019
 

Diversification - the key to good performance and reducing risk.

Given the overall sideways nature of the market (albeit with some day to day volatility) and the dominance of the top 20 or 50 stocks, outperformance is likely to come from stock picking at the smaller end of the market.

While it's early days for September fund performance, with just under 20% of funds having reported to date, at first glance those funds focusing on the small cap end of the market provided their investors with some stellar returns last month. While the ASX200 accumulation index returned 1.84% for the month, a number of funds returned over 4%, with the top 3 to date, Bennelong's Emerging Companies Fund, Cyan's CG3, and Celeste's Australian Small Company's Fund reporting 9.92%, 8.62% and 5.40% respectively.

Obviously one month's performance is not an end unto itself, and a longer-term analysis is required, but with the ASX200 up around 12% over 12 months - assisted by falling interest rates - 15% of the funds in AFM's database are outperforming, and within that group some returning over twice that amount.

Regular followers of Hedge Clippings would know that our preferred approach is to invest in funds by creating a diversified portfolio of funds, thereby reducing risk without necessarily reducing performance. In fact, by selecting funds with a low correlation to each other, performance can actually increase whilst volatility, and risk of capital loss, decreases.

Going forward we will be discussing this - with examples - in more detail. Watch this space.

Hedge Clippings | Friday 04 October, 2019
 

A predictable week that was.

If Hedge Clippings ever placed a bet on the week's news, this would have been the one to make a motza from the bookies. After all, everything that occurred over the past week was pretty predictable.

Firstly, the RBA cut rates by 25bps as expected. OK, that was pretty easy, and we only came across one person (no names, but they'll know) who thought they wouldn't. Not only had the RBA's governor hinted strongly that they would, but all the economic indicators, both here and overseas, were pointing in that direction.

Next, the big four banks elected not to pass on the full 25bps to borrowers. Then both the Treasurer and the PM got stuck into them for not doing so, while the opposition jumped on the bandwagon to criticise the government. Three out of three, we could have taken out that trifecta with our eyes (and ears) closed.

However, spare a thought for the banks for a moment (we know, that's not always easy, and not predictable). Not passing the full cut on when rates are 1% was never going to happen simply because only a portion of their funding is tied to the RBA's cash rate. According to the AFR, 60 - 70% comes from deposits, including some on which the term is fixed. And for that portion which is in non-interest-bearing transaction accounts, their margins are being squeezed further.

Offshore was just as predictable. China put on a show of military goose-stepping force not seen for 75 years to celebrate the 70th anniversary of their "glorious" revolution, while the protesters in Hong Kong carried on protesting regardless.  

Trump continued to tweet against the injustices of the Democrats and others, claiming he should be impeached or worse, while Boris continued to defy Europe, Jeremy Corbyn, and a fair section of his own party (plus the Speaker) - all of whom he couldn't give a toss about.

Finally, to the sporting field. Richmond flogged the Giants to such an extent that spectators should have asked for a refund on the price of their tickets. We might be biased, but that was mighty predictable as well.

The Wallabies made life difficult for themselves (something they've become experts at over the past few years) by selecting a goal kicker with a success rate this season of just 56% and losing a winnable match against Wales. While not totally predictable, sadly very familiar!

But then, against all the odds, we would have blown all our winnings backing Ireland against lowly Japan, who were inspirational, producing some of the most entertaining rugby seen for a while. Just as well we hadn't placed our bets - or collected our winnings - from the other un-losable wagers.

Hedge Clippings | Friday 27 September, 2019
 

Political intrigue and change seem to be occurring so frequently, and so rapidly, that it's difficult for Hedge Clippings to keep pace.

It was less than two weeks ago that the drone strike on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities knocked out 50% of production overnight, causing a near 20% spike in the price of crude as a result. That had the world on edge and wondering about the potential for renewed conflict in the Middle East, and the potential for Iran's war of words with the US to escalate to military conflict.

That would certainly damage world oil supplies. However the US has a vast oil inventory to last 700 days - plus over 8,000 new shale oil wells that had been drilled, but not yet completed - in other words, additional supply which could come online rapidly if required or when/if prices made it economical to do so.

Not so Australia, which has a minuscule stockpile by comparison. In spite of the International Energy Agency (IEA) mandating that countries stockpile 90 days' worth of crude oil, based on current consumption trends we have just 32 days of total petroleum stocks, 28 days of petrol, 30 days of aviation fuel, and 22 days of diesel.

Of course, there is nothing to say that military action won't occur, but one would hope that all parties involved recognise the risks of that happening.

Key to that must be Donald Trump, never far away from political change or intrigue, who seems to be busy fighting battles over his tax returns, plus his more recent phone records with the Ukrainian government. One hopes he'll be sufficiently occupied with those minor issues and not looking for a distraction on the global stage.

And while on the subject of political change or intrigue, this week's antics of Boris and the UK parliament really must take first prize. It seems somewhat fitting that England is the home of the pantomime. No doubt the musical Boris will be opening in the West End shortly, or maybe they'll just relocate an orchestra to Westminster.

And through all this our own ScoMo seemed to be having a dream run on the world stage. Having enjoyed a State dinner as the guest of the President at the White House, and patching up Malcolm's unfortunate phone call, he even managed to defuse or sidestep the criticism of a Scandinavian teenager.

Having had the turmoil of successive prime ministers from both sides of politics, no doubt it was Australia's turn for some political stability.

Hedge Clippings | Friday 20 September, 2019
 

Aside from anticipation surrounding the start of the RWC which kicks off this evening with Japan* taking on Russia, prior to the Wallabies taking on Fiji tomorrow, there hasn't been much of note this week...

Not much? Boris and Her Majesty the Queen (fresh from being embarrassed by former PM David Cameron's latest gaffe of actually opening up on their private conversations) might disagree, as might the Saudi's oil industry. Then again, the US Fed did drop interest rates by 25 basis points - as expected - and Australian unemployment crept up to 5.3% in August from 5.2% the month before, and 4.9% in February, increasing expectations of a further rate cut when the RBA meets in a couple of weeks. Overseas it was announced that globally negative yielding debt has now reached a peak of US$17 trillion, up from $10 trillion at the start of May.

As we have discussed before, whilst erring on the side of caution, given the current outlook for the bond market it is unlikely that the current equity bull run is likely to end. Interest rates are falling and unlikely to rise any time soon, and there's no sign of wages lead inflation or, if it comes to that, any other kind. Although kindling a fire under inflation that any increase in oil prices might create, it is much more likely to add to the potential of an economic slowdown - which would merely trigger calls for further easings in monetary policy, and fiscal stimulus.

Once again we quote and defer to commentary from Longview Economics and their excellent weekly research, who also agree that in the absence of any macro shocks, this bull market looks set to continue, despite some near term challenges for earnings growth. Added to which, they add, Trump's recent comments about a 'halfway house' type trade deal with China, plus his sacking of his most hawkish adviser, and his suggestion of a middle class tax cut, all point to a president who is increasingly focussing on re-election (and, given how he regards it as his key barometer for success, focussing on getting the stock market up).

*For those interested in tonight's team selections, here's the Japanese line up: