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13 May 2022 - Hedge Clippings |13 May 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 13 May 2022
Given there are only 8 days until the election, it is difficult (as we'd much prefer) to avoid the subject in Hedge Clippings. One would have to say it's been a pretty unimpressive campaign on both sides, but that of course ignores the reality that this time around there's a real chance that "Teal" independents (who claim they're not a party in spite of their common policy, branding and major source of funding) will hold the balance of power in conjunction with the Greens. Of course, technically teal is a shade of blue, but it's not far off the green on the colour wheel. Politically a little less left, but that is possibly showing our political bias. A major topic of the campaign, and particularly this week, has been Albanese's economic credentials, or lack thereof. This week in our view he compounded that by agreeing to support a 5.1% rise to the basic wage to offset the effects of inflation on the lowest paid in the community. Unfortunately, that's the kind of shoot from the lip kind of thinking that will only feed into higher inflation and the potential for a wage/price spiral, whilst only assisting one section (those employed on low or basic wages) of the community. It wouldn't help pensioners or anyone not in the workforce. Hedge Clippings is only a kitchen (or possibly that should be pantry) economist at best, but that kind of thinking is either betraying Albo's left-wing leanings from his student days, or confirming he's not across the economic detail. Or both. An alternative, albeit more radical view, might be to tinker with the tax system - Maybe by raising the tax-free threshold one could assist the low paid worker by putting more in their pay packet without adding to inflationary or cost pressures on business and employers, although there would have to be adjustments elsewhere (presumably at the other end of the tax scale) to pay for it. In case you missed it, "adjustments" mean higher taxes for the higher or highest paid. This would be a dangerous call at election time, as Bill Shorten discovered to his cost leading into the last election. So, leaving the election (we're all sick of it anyway) and onto markets, which have finally succumbed to the warnings and storm clouds that have been well flagged on the horizon for some time. The tech sector, where valuations led all others skywards, has borne the brunt as leverage and excess are bringing valuations to earth. The sector most affected however has been cryptocurrencies where Bitcoin, the flagship, is now below US$30,000 and still falling. There are those evangelists and true believers who are convinced this is a great buying opportunity, and others, no doubt like Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, who will probably think there's a further $30,000 to fall. That's what makes a market. Meanwhile, many equity funds - particularly those that focused on tech and growth - have suffered over the past 6 months, there are others - long/short, alternatives, resource focused for example that are showing the benefits of a diversified fund portfolio. News & Insights Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable | FundMonitors.com Big Player - Investment Snapshot | Insync Fund Managers One of the ASX's most impressive stocks | Airlie Funds Management |
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April 2022 Performance News Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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6 May 2022 - Hedge Clippings |06 May 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 06 May 2022
This week the RBA governor Philip Lowe abandoned his previous expectation made in March 2021, namely that for inflation to be sustainably in the 2-3% range, then wages growth (then 1.4% and the lowest on record) would need to be sustainably above 3%. As he wasn't expecting that to occur any time soon he stated "the cash rate is very likely to remain at its current level until at least 2024". The RBA's main concern at that time was that inflation was too low. The rest, as they say, is history. This week the RBA lifted official rates by 0.25% to 0.35%, and the big four banks' mortgage rates followed suit. One of the problems facing economists and their economic forecasting is that all the models rely on historical back-testing, and they're generally not so good when it comes to expecting the unexpected. In this case, wages growth has remained subdued (as per the RBA's expectations) in spite of a tight labour market and unemployment running at just 4%. However, inflation - at 5.1% over the 12 months to March - has jumped out of the blocks, thanks mainly to external and generally one-off factors. Back to March 2021, and RBA Governor Philip Lowe expected these one-off factors - which he described as "transitory" - to be mainly pandemic or drought related, and he also stated that the RBA board would "look through" these when setting monetary policy. The best laid plans etc., etc. To be fair (as Scomo is keen to point out), this is not unique to Australia, and no one to our knowledge anticipated Putin's invasion of Ukraine and its effect on oil and energy prices. Inflation in both the US (+8.5%), the UK (+7.0%), and the Euro area (+7.4%) are all higher than Australia's. As a result, the US Fed raised rates by 0.5% after lifting them by 0.25% in March, and overnight the Bank of England raised theirs by 0.25% to 1.0%. US equity markets, which have been anticipating rate rises, but maybe not by 50 bps, took fright, and the ASX has followed suit. Cryptocurrencies led by Bitcoin, supposedly uncorrelated to equities, dropped over 8%. However, in Australia the main concern seems to be the overheated residential property market, which just goes to show that you can't please all the people all of the time. Thanks to 10 years of falling and ultra low interest rates, property prices have skyrocketed, benefiting some, and locking others out of the market. Higher rates will, according to some forecasters such as Christopher Joye in today's AFR, cause house prices "to correct by up to 25%". That should cause some grief for those recently joining the market, but please future new entrants. While our obsession with property prices will remain, the greatest issue from here is the balancing act the RBA will have managing the economy by trying to tame inflation (as above, largely caused by global "transitory" issues and events) using tighter monetary policy, while not stalling the economy and, thereby increasing unemployment as a result. Labour's shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers wants higher real wages (as does the RBA), but that's just going to feed into higher "non transitory" inflation. A balancing act indeed - and if history tells us anything, it's that the RBA is generally behind the curve when it comes to timing. News & Insights Seeking predictable returns during economic turmoil | Laureola Advisors Powell seeks 'immaculate disinflation'; one that rids the US of inflation without shedding jobs | Magellan Asset Management Are the winners today also the winners of tomorrow? | Insync Fund Managers |
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March 2022 Performance News April 2022 Performance News Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund AIM Global High Conviction Fund |
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29 Apr 2022 - Hedge Clippings |29 April 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 29 April 2022
Half way there - only three weeks to go... Only Anthony Albanese's staunchest supporters would describe him as an exciting, inspiring or charismatic politician. So whilst he's been locked away with COVID how come this election campaign has seemed even more boring than usual? To be fair, the requirements of, or for, a good PM don't have to include charisma, or to be inspirational, but even a touch of either would liven things up a bit. Given (according to the polls) it looks a better than even chance he'll be running the country in a few weeks' time one can only hope that whilst in isolation he has at least been able to brush up on his long forgotten, but recently recalled, economics degree. Hedge Clippings doesn't want to put any of our hard earned on the outcome, but our current call is for a minority government, with a group of independents (hopefully excluding Clive and his UAP) calling the shots. If that outcome comes to pass, that's democracy in action, but who knows where it will lead over the following three years? In the meantime there were two major confirmations over the past week: Firstly, that China is much smarter strategically and politically than Australia, the USA and New Zealand put together. Any thoughts that China WON'T militarise the Solomon Islands seem implausible, otherwise why would they have bothered in the first place, and why won't they release the terms of the deal? One can assume that no amount of pressure or persuasion will result in them retreating back to the Chinese mainland, the Spratly Islands - or even in due course, to Taiwan. Secondly, confirmation this week that inflation, and therefore interest rates, will soon be rising. A couple of months ago we thought this would not occur before June to avoid the impending election, but the RBA now has to justify why NOT to move in May at next Tuesday's board meeting. Whilst it will make all the headlines, the questions that really need to be asked are how many more, and how much higher will they go? Much of the latest annual 5.1% increase in inflation was sourced externally (oil, energy, COVID, supply chain, etc) or seasonal food prices, leaving the increase in the "trimmed rate" a slightly less alarming 3.7%. However, given inflation has averaged around 2.5% for the last 30 odd years, that's enough to worry the RBA, and the property market. Rates will certainly rise, but from such a low level that the effect on the economy, and the negative effects on consumer spending, will be magnified. How the government - whichever party or parties prevail - manages and the wage claims that follow will be critical. Given the uncertainty currenlty prevailing - both locally, and globally - the outcome of the election is going to be crucial, and we suspect the following three years will be painful. Much like the past two years, albeit for different reasons! News & Insights Hedging against inflation - gold or real estate? | Quay Global Investors The Experience Megatrend | Insync Fund Managers 10k Words | Equitable Investors |
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March 2022 Performance News |
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22 Apr 2022 - Hedge Clippings |22 April 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 22 April 2022
At the end of last year Hedge Clippings' headline was "Certainty in Uncertain Times," as we speculated that inflation was here and now, but with uncertainty whether it was transitory or not. We also knew that interest rates were going to rise, but how soon, and by how much, still seemed unclear. Four months later, and the times seem more certain and uncertain than ever: The outlook for inflation seems clearer, higher, and more certain, while interest rates - at least based on Jerome Powell's overnight comments - are likely to rise by 50 bps at the Fed's meeting in May. Thanks to the election, the RBA is unlikely to move prior to June, but there are strong expectations for 2 or possibly 3 more moves prior to the end of the year. The longer term question will be the balance between rising rates taming inflation (much of which is global, supply chain induced or driven by the war in Ukraine) before damaging the economy, with predictions of a recession in the US by 2024. The tech heavy Nasdaq is now below its level of 12 months ago, confirming that the valuations assigned to the so called "growth" sector are a thing of the past (even leaving aside the difficulties experienced by Netflix this week). The broader S&P500 is faring better, but still well below its December peak, while locally the ASX200 still hovers close to it - for the moment. Politically, both locally and globally, uncertainty seems entrenched. With no clear end in sight, the war in Ukraine will both stretch on, and even assuming a cease fire, will stretch relations between NATO and Russia. Locally, the outcome of the Federal election on May 21 is likely to lead to further uncertainty on the domestic front. In this environment, manager and fund selection is more critical than ever, as is diversification across strategies, sectors and geographic mandates. News & Insights Airlie Insight: The dominant narrative of 2022 for stocks | Airlie Funds Management Megatrend in Focus: Enterprise Digitisation is accelerating | Insync Fund Managers Looming French presidential election | 4D Infrastructure |
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March 2022 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Paragon Australian Long Short Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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14 Apr 2022 - Hedge Clippings |14 April 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Thursday, 08 April 2022
Following Anthony Albanese's clanger on Day 1 of the 2022 election campaign, former opposition leader Bill Shorten tried to pay Scott Morrison a compliment by warning his Labor colleagues that ScoMo was, or is, a formidable campaigner and not be underestimated. Bill Shorten should know. However, he either forgot or didn't want to accept responsibility for losing the 2019 election which everyone, including the polls, expected him to win. For those with short memories, or those understandably distracted by the almost biblical-like dramas of the last three years (bush fires, COVID, floods, and now war), Shorten and his then shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen came up with the dopey idea (at least going into an election) of proposing to do away with franking credits. At that time (March 2018) Hedge Clippings suggested this was a dangerous move, and became a little creative, even penning a poem, the last verse of which ran: But Willie's got his facts wrong, as pollies often do, Bowen then doubled down by suggesting that those voters (many of whom were pensioners) likely to be disadvantaged by a return to double taxation of dividend income, could vote Liberal instead. Which, as history recalls, they did! As a result, Bowen has hardly been seen since, and certainly not heard of from an economics point of view. But why would you need a former shadow treasurer when Albo, the leader of the opposition, is - or claims to be - a former economics adviser to Bob Hawke? Not being across the most basic of current economic statistics is possibly forgivable, although a clear indicator of where his interests really lie, but to follow that up with a false and easily fact checked claim, smacked of desperation. Albanese's been keen to maintain a small target heading into this election, hoping that ScoMo's missteps over the past three years will see him living the life at the Lodge and Kirribilli House after occupying the Clocktower at Sydney Uni. There's still five weeks to go, but he needs to lift his game, or Shorten's warning may prove correct. News & Insights The Rise of the Contactless Economy | Insync Fund Managers Central banks are going green to questionable avail while stirring risks | Magellan Asset Management Russia-Ukraine conflict | 4D Infrastructure |
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March 2022 Performance News Insync Global Quality Equity Fund |
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8 Apr 2022 - Hedge Clippings |08 April 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 08 April 2022
The longer the war in Ukraine continues, so the stakes are rising. Initially expected to be a quick and easy victory, six weeks later it seems an early resolution is unlikely. The Ukrainian's brave, gritty and effective defense, and the Russian's misguided tactics and leadership, have been a revelation to most, as have the horrors of war as Russian atrocities come to light. While the Ukrainians are fighting for their country and their lives, their allies and supporters cannot afford to let them lose. Meanwhile Putin, having miscalculated badly, also can't afford - or at least be seen - to lose. Presumably his face-saving solution is a partial win by occupying and annexing Donetsk and Luhansk (now claimed to be the original intention) to add to Crimea, which was previously annexed in 2014. Even if Russia prevails and actually wins the war, Ukrainians are unlikely to simply submit. A military win would merely be the start of a long, bloody and painful occupation of Ukraine, until the occupying Russian forces eventually withdrew, as they previously did after almost 10 years in Afghanistan. Even in that circumstance, we assume that Europe, the US, and the rest of the civilised countries of the world would continue to isolate Russia economically and culturally. A "partial" victory - even assuming it came to pass - might help to save face for Putin, but whatever the outcome, it is unlikely to end the economic sanctions currently and increasingly being imposed on Russia and its economy. If anything, one assumes (or hopes) the pressure will increase. The problem is that those same sanctions are in turn impacting the nations imposing them, particularly in Europe where they're paying the price for their dependence on Russian energy and resources. In the meantime, Australia's resources sector has been a beneficiary, as evidenced by March returns from funds with appropriate exposure such as Paragon (+23.69%) and Argonaut (+11.6%). Meanwhile the global economy, already facing headwinds from inflation, increasing interest rates, and a potential slow down in China, leads us to ponder the chances of a global recession, and ask the question: "Are equity markets appropriately pricing in the risk?" News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Quarterly Update & Outlook Webinar (1-Apr) | Laureola Advisors 10k Words - March Edition | Equitable Investors Volatility, Uncertainty, and War | Laureola Advisors Another era of quantitative tightening beckons | Magellan Asset Management |
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March 2022 Performance News AIM Global High Conviction Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund |
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1 Apr 2022 - Hedge Clippings |01 April 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 01 April 2022
Today being April Fools Day, previously known as All Fools Day, it is fitting that yesterday was (assuming an election in May) the last sitting day of the current Parliament. Rather than try to come up with anything better, Hedge Clippings will defer to Phillip Coorey's column in today's AFR, who opened his piece with "If Anthony Albanese and Scott Morrison are both to be believed, the federal election will not be a battle between two parties with competing visions, but a fight between two lots of clueless old farts." Whilst Hedge Clippings is generally in agreement with the "clueless old farts" reference, the first issue we have is "are both to be believed". Since when did anyone believe anything that both the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition say? Or if it comes to that, given the level of cynicism currently prevailing, when did most people believe what either of them said? That's probably true irrespective if it's the PM or OL of the day, although it seems neither of the current incumbents are racing ahead in the polls. In a two horse race, we suppose one of them has to win (or possibly one loses more than the other) - probably with the support of minority parties - although the thought of the likes of Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer holding the balance of power leaves a lot to be desired. Hedge Clippings originally assumed that Albo was just keeping the seat warm until someone in the Labour party with ability and at least some personality (our bet being Tanya Plibersek) would take over, but lo and behold, he's still in the race. And it seems ScoMo has managed to alienate so many sections of the community over the past couple of years that no one's giving him much chance of pulling off another miracle, come from behind victory. Of course, to some people, NOTHING Scomo does deserves credit. Which is a shame, because on the two big picture items - COVID and the economy - one can argue he's done a pretty good job unless that is you're a Scomo hater. Even if you're a ScoMo fan, it is difficult not to agree (again) with the AFR's post budget headline "Cash splash dash to the polls". Or to argue with the possibly cynical view that Albo's maintaining a small target by basically accepting everything in the Liberal budget, and just tacking on his own additional $2.5 billion cash splash on the politically sensitive aged care sector. Maybe the incredible shrinking Clive Palmer's correct in saying never trust the two major parties again, although when it comes to the trustworthy meter, Clive leaves a little to be desired. Just remember the Queensland Nickel saga, and his elusive (and also shrinking) nephew, Clive Mensink who still seems reluctant to have his day in court. So, if you're not already sick of politicians' promises, all or most of which you know will evaporate in the face of inflation, interest rates, or at the petrol pump, prepare yourself for six or seven weeks of full-on claims, counter claims and expensive advertising. 95% of which will be wasted given it's only the swinging voters (around 5%) who determine the outcome anyway. On a different, and sadder note, Australia and the cricketing world paused this week to remember Shane Keith Warne. Even for those who might not be cricket fans, it was impossible not to admire his talent, exploits, and his charisma, as we watched or listened to the tributes from his father, brother, and three brave children. At 52, gone far too young, he will long be remembered. Even ScoMo and Albo were in agreement on that. News & Insights A tumultuous start to '22! | Insync Fund Managers Do Multiples Matter? | Equitable Investors |
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25 Mar 2022 - Hedge Clippings |25 March 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 25 March 2022 Exactly one month ago, Vladimir Putin announced that he had made the decision to launch a "special military operation" in eastern Ukraine, with no plans to occupy Ukrainian territory, and that he supported the right of the peoples of Ukraine to self determination. Both of these claims were of course rubbish. As it turns out, it looks as if the Ukrainian resistance is likely to ensure Russia's occupation will fail, and the country's self determination will prevail - both of which have surprised everyone outside Ukraine, Putin included. Exact details are difficult to confirm, but as of 4 hours ago Reuters were reporting "at least 20,000 deaths" including 5 generals - 5,000 more than Russia lost in nearly 10 years in Afghanistan. In a previous edition of Hedge Clippings, we referred to it as the most dangerous situation since WWII, which depending on one's point of view, becomes potentially more dangerous the more unsuccessful that Russia becomes. Unlikely to back down or withdraw, at what stage does Putin escalate by using ever more powerful weapons? If he does so, at what stage will NATO respond, rather than the current strategy of providing arms instead of armies? Meanwhile, after just one month, news of the war (to call it what it really is) has been pushed off the front pages. Page 1 of today's Sydney Morning Herald has nothing other than a pointer to an article on page 13. The conflict doesn't rate a mention on P1 of today's AFR, possibly understandable as it is a financial newspaper, albeit the war's impact on trade, inflation (oil, gas, cereals), etc prevailing. The UK's Telegraph is not much different, more interested in a 5p. reduction of fuel tax. Maybe all this is caused by the incessant 24 hour news cycle, and the inability for the headlines or the latest news bulletin to "carry" a story - or retain readers' and viewers' interest for any length of time. It used to be said that last week's news was tomorrow's fish and chip wrapper, so maybe nothing has changed, except they don't put the news on the Macca's or Hungry Jacks' carton. And it seems that after an initial "risk-off" shakeout, equity markets have moved back to a "risk-on" stance with the ASX200 up 400 points since the first Russian tank rumbled over the border on 24 February, and the S&P500 up a similar amount since mid March. Meanwhile, other risks, such as energy prices, supply chain shortages, a looming election campaign, higher interest rates, inflation, stagflation, and talks of a US recession (induced in part by the war) remain, or have increased. Luckily there was one "good news" story - or at least an uplifting one, in Ash Barty's retirement, literally at the top of her game, aged just 25. We would consider that she has the world at her feet, with suggestions she might even enter politics. Surely she's too sensible (and honest) for that - although teaching some of them to retire while they're ahead would be a welcome move. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Manager Insights | ASCF Pet Humanisation Megatrend | Insync Fund Managers Interest rates, bonds and listed real estate | Quay Global Investors The central bank dilemma | Kardinia Capital |
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18 Mar 2022 - Hedge Clippings |18 March 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 18 March 2022 Overnight the US Federal Reserve finally bit the bullet and raised interest rates off rock bottom by 0.25% in what is almost certain to be the first step in many back to a normal monetary policy - assuming there is such a level as normal. The move was widely anticipated and in a classic case of "buy the rumour, sell the fact" - or in this case "sell the rumour, buy the fact," - both the Dow Jones and S&P500 jumped 1.23%, Nasdaq did a tad better, rising 1.33%, while the S&P500 VIX fell by 3.75%. News & Insights Manager Insights | DS Capital Investing in infrastructure: what's changed and where are the opportunities? | Magellan Asset Management Australian Equities - At The Crossroads? | Airlie Funds Management Learning from historians as well as from history | Equitable Investors |
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11 Mar 2022 - Hedge Clippings |11 March 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 11 March 2022 As Russia's invasion (sorry, "reunification") of Ukraine drags into its third week, it is difficult to imagine Putin pulling his forces back - or out. Any such move in the face of defeat or sanctions would signify such a massive loss of face on his part that it seems unthinkable. As a result, there are not many alternative outcomes, assuming the US and Europe stick to their guns (apologies for the mixed metaphors) and refuse to either implement a no fly zone, or decline to let the Polish lend Ukraine their (Russian built) MIG fighters. In spite of the lopsided numbers, the Ukrainian armed forces, assuming they're not wiped out (or surrender, which seems as unlikely as Putin doing the same) could dig in for a long war of attrition. History shows that these types of conflict are rarely won by the initial aggressor, as Russia knows all too well, having lost 15,000 dead and 35,000 wounded (not to mention an estimated 2 million Afghans) before retreating from their 10 year invasion of Afghanistan. By all accounts, Putin's plans assumed another decisive victory, or a quick Ukrainian capitulation, and although it's still only early days, neither of which seem likely. So a long war of attrition on Europe's doorstep will be accompanied by equally long standing sanctions and the equally damaging economic fallout that will follow. As suggested previously, while Putin's unlikely to back down, and sanctions will be effective over time, but hurt both sides, the leverage that can be put on by the increasingly asset-less Oligarchs, and the mothers of Russian soldiers, are likely to be the solution. Unless of course, Putin decides to up the ante by resorting to his oft threatened nuclear solution, thereby giving the West no option but to get further involved, escalating to goodness knows where. Estimates currently suggest a 10% chance of this outcome within 12 months. To markets: Some investors will reduce their exposure, while some will watch, wait and worry, while others see opportunity in some oversold situations. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, it seems almost certain that the sharp spike in inflation - 7.9% and the highest for 40 years - will see an increase in interest rates. Even taking food and energy out of the figures, the annual rate was still 6.4%, and the numbers to the end of February don't factor in the inflationary effects of the recent spike in oil prices. It is safe to assume that even though higher inflation and associated increases in interest rates have been flagged and factored in for some time, when the actual time comes for the announcement - from the US Federal Reserve or our own RBA - the market will react. And given that expectations are for further inflation to flow through the system, the rate increase is unlikely to be the only one, but the first in a series. Closer to home Adviser Ratings has released the results of their survey of financial adviser numbers in Australia, with just 17,266 still in the industry, bringing numbers down by 40% since the Hayne Royal Commission. There are a number of implications from this - one being that it is increasingly difficult for those people who need advice, to find or afford it. At the same time, the alternative of using technology to provide a "robo-solution" can only solve so many problems, given the investors needing the advice may not be suited to a robo solution. At the end of the day, in all walks of life, you tend to get what you pay for. News & Insights The question is, when should you invest? | Insync Fund Managers Markets Volatile; Ukraine Invaded | Laureola Advisors Aligning Interests: (no freeloading on my tab!) | Colins St Asset Management |
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