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22 Jul 2022 - Hedge Clippings |22 July 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 22 July 2022
You probably don't need Hedge Clippings to bring to your attention what a miserable first half of 2022 it has been: Putin's invasion of Ukraine; incessant rain in Queensland and NSW leading to multiple "1 in 100 year" floods; a continuation - and now apparently an uptick of COVID cases; and in Europe and North America, a heat wave and catastrophic fires. All that before we even consider the economy and markets, where the emergence of long dormant inflation has led to increased interest rates, and the resulting equity price bubble well and truly bursting. A cursory glance at FundMonitors' Peer Group tables shows a sea of negative numbers, as do the major indices such as the ASX, Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq. These in turn have resulted in widespread negative returns from managed funds - particularly from some of those that had previously benefitted from said price bubble, and had crowed about their "skill" in riding it. Remember that old saying about roosters to feather dusters? Other fund managers, possibly older and wiser, were content to take what returns they could, when they could, understanding that nothing lasts forever. Looking at the Top Ten performing funds over the 12 months to June, avoiding long only equities, and particularly the small cap sector, was the place to be, with managed futures/currency funds taking out four of the top ten places, long/short of one iteration or another a further four, one private equity, and digital, or cryptocurrency, taking the last spot (+22.28%) in spite of Bitcoin's implosion. Naturally, Equity Alternative Funds performed well compared with the Long Only sector in a reversal of the broad sector performance over the past couple of years. Singling out Australian Equity Long funds, there were still some impressive performances, albeit fewer of them, and with more subdued results ranging from +21.22% down to 4.94% - still impressive given the underlying markets: To view performance and fact sheets of all 700 funds, click here. News & Insights Consider the evidence for long term returns | Glenmore Asset Management The Long and The Short: Finding solace in the short | Kardinia Capital 10k Words | Equitable Investors |
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June 2022 Performance News Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund |
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15 Jul 2022 - Hedge Clippings |15 July 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 15 July 2022 Australian unemployment at 3.5% - the lowest since 1974. US consumer inflation at 9.1% year on year - the highest since 1981. Chinese GDP growth -2.6% for the quarter. Canadian interest rates up by 1%. A resurgence of COVID, with over 47,000 cases in the last 24 hours, and over 300,000 active cases at a time when half the population of NSW have been staying indoors due to yet more rain. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Cyan Investment Management | Manager Insights Video 'Small Talk' - cold, hard data on FY22 | Equitable Investors Enduring the downturn | Cyan Investment Management |
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June 2022 Performance News Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) |
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8 Jul 2022 - Hedge Clippings |08 July 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 08 July 2022 It's disappointing when a source of Hedge Clippings' inspiration (to use the word lightly) departs from centre stage, although sometimes with mixed feelings. Take former POTUS "The Donald" for instance: A prime candidate (and narcissist) if ever there was one, who was regularly mentioned in these paragraphs, but who we were happy to see the back of - albeit that he's threatening to make a comeback in 2024. This week, it seems another of Hedge Clipping's favourite targets, Boris "Bozo" Johnson, looks to be headed for the EXIT sign, both from Downing Street, and thus the pages of our weekly musings. Donald Trump is still convinced he was robbed in the November 2020 US presidential election, such that he thought if he said it loudly enough, and often enough, he would stay in the White House for another 4 years. As a BBC commentator noted this morning, having two such leaders at the same time, both of whom were seemingly devoid of the ability to focus on detail or tell the truth, made the world a more interesting place. Unfortunately, being interesting isn't the most important credential for a President or Prime Minister, particularly in troubled times. While Australia's past penchant for regular and rapid prime ministerial turnover was the subject of much incredulity (and mirth) in both the UK and US, we do at least have an effective exit system, either via the ballot box, or the knife behind one's colleagues' back. David Cameron, Boris's fellow ex Etonian and himself a former resident of 10 Downing Street, once described the scruffily charismatic ex PM (in waiting) as a "greased piglet," owing to his ability to slip (or lie) his way out of tight situations. Even as he's on the way out, it looks as if he's going to hang around as interim PM for long enough to hold his wedding reception at Chequers on July 30th. Maybe that was in the back of his mind as he steadfastly refused to accept the inevitable, such that it took 60 or so of his colleagues to resign in protest. Sadly, while his handling of multiple crises, such as COVID, parties at Number 10 during lockdown, and dealing leniently with the truth, were eventually his undoing, the always unconventional Boris also pulled off some amazing achievements. BREXIT (like it or not), and his leadership in supporting Ukraine were significant. His departure, at least the timing of it, will leave a dangerous void that Putin will no doubt attempt to capitalise on. Leaving politics aside, this week saw the RBA follow market expectations by lifting the official interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.35% in an effort to curb consumer consumption, and in turn inflation. The RBA's post meeting statement expects inflation to peak later this year before declining back towards the 2-3% range next year, and that "the Board expects to take further steps in the normalisation of monetary conditions in Australia over the months ahead". That signals a further 2 or 3 moves over the next 3-6 months towards 2.5%. Whilst the current 1.35% is low by historical standards, as is the expectation of 2.5 or 3%, that's going to bite, and bite hard given the level of household debt, particularly hitting the property market. While the RBA points to unemployment at 3.9% and a resilient economy, they also point out their uncertainty over the outlook for household spending, which will be impacted by consumer confidence. Once that confidence evaporates - and there's anecdotal evidence that is already happening - then part of the RBA's job is done. The danger is they've done it too well, and getting confidence back will be the new challenge. In the US expectations are for a further 75 bps rate hike in July, with the Fed indicating that taming inflation is their priority, even at the risk of recession. If so, that will certainly break confidence. Following a brutal June in which the ASX200 fell 8.77%, and the S&P500 by 8.25%, equity markets seem to have settled somewhat. The forthcoming reporting season will give a better idea of earnings, and therefore if valuations are considered reasonable, or prices have further to fall. News & Insights National Infrastructure Briefings 2022 | Magellan Asset Management You should probably be turning off the news | Insync Fund Managers Rate Hike Volatility: Winter Comes in June for Crypto | Laureola Advisors |
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June 2022 Performance News Insync Global Capital Aware Fund L1 Capital Long Short Fund (Monthly Class) |
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1 Jul 2022 - Hedge Clippings |01 July 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 01 July 2022 A week may be a long time in politics, and in financial markets there's an old saying that "time in the market" is important, but at the end of the day what matters to investors are returns. More relevant at the current time are lack of returns, given the S&P 500 fell just over 20% in the six months to June, down from its record peak in January. Bonds in the US have followed suit, down 10% this year, so diversification hasn't helped. News & Insights Investment environment snapshot | Laureola Advisors 10k Words | Equitable Investors Thinking about industrial (and Qantas and Netflix) | Quay Global Investors 4D podcast: explaining the country review process | 4D Infrastructure |
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24 Jun 2022 - Hedge Clippings |24 June 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 24 June 2022 Last week's Hedge Clippings noted that central bankers were caught between a rock and a hard place, trying to manage inflation by tightening monetary policy, and at the same time managing a balancing act trying to prevent their economies falling into a recession. This week Australia's media only seemed to have a single topic (leaving aside Lisa Wilkinson's Logies stupidity) - namely inflation and wages. (No doubt the pedants will correctly note that's two topics, but they sort of go hand in hand.) The trouble with trying to curb inflation is that it's like trying to put a smell back in the bottle - once it's out, it's out. (Only genies and little ships go back in the bottle.) There was a chance, ever so slight, that whilst inflation was "transient" or external, it might have been possible to argue it was temporary. However, once the central banks started to lift rates, it was out. The combination of higher mortgage repayments and inflation leads to wage pressure, with the inevitable risk of an interest rate/wage/price spiral, and so it goes on. And on. Meanwhile Putin put a spike in the spokes, energy markets went into a spin, lettuces got into the act, and the price side of the spiral was confirmed. The Prime Minister had no option but to follow through on his election promise to push for the minimum wage to rise by the then inflation rate, and the Fair Work Commission obliged by lifting it by 5.2% for 184,000 lowest paid workers, and by 4.6% for another 2.6 million workers on higher awards. RBA governor Dr. Philip Lowe said he expected inflation to peak at 7% by the end of the year, and then "moderate", and while he doesn't believe official interest rates will reach 4%, he does admit his forecasting record in that regard hasn't been spectacular, to say the least. As far as forecasting a recession, he did at least cover himself by saying while he "doesn't see one on the horizon ... you can't rule anything out." To make his job easier, Dr. Lowe wants wages growth to be kept at 3.5%, while the ACTU's Sally McManus, not surprisingly wants her members to push for wage rises in line with inflation, which based on the RBA's forecast, means 7%, and predictably saying company profits are the cause of inflation. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was even blunter than Philip Lowe - or maybe more realistic depending on one's view, acknowledging that a recession in the US was certainly a possibility. At the same time he reiterated that two key factors driving inflation - namely, energy prices and supply chain constraints - were out of his control, and that if he had to raise rates by 1% to curb inflation at the next or future meetings, he would. Against this backdrop it is no wonder that markets have rotated from last year's risk on, to this year's risk off, with the basis for equity valuations and multiples finally switching from forecast revenue, (or even consumer or subscriber numbers) to earnings, and then to recurring earnings in particular. In the upcoming reporting season there will no doubt be further revisions to equity prices as investors' and analysts' focus switches to recurring profit, or ROE. As the P side of the P/E ratio falls, so value - and buyers - will no doubt return. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Manager Insights | Collins St Asset Management Megatrends drive sustainable growth | Insync Fund Managers Record high inflation could trigger a fresh eurozone financial crisis | Magellan Asset Management |
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May 2022 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Paragon Australian Long Short Fund Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Insync Global Quality Equity Fund |
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17 Jun 2022 - Hedge Clippings |17 June 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 17 June 2022 Central Banks are caught between a rock and a hard place, namely inflation and a recession. Of course with the benefit of hindsight, history shows putting off the inevitable doesn't work, and that hope is not a viable strategy. RBA Governor Philip Lowe is now saying inflation is likely to be around 7% by the end of the year, and it is reasonable for the cash rate to hit 2.5%. Given a further 0.75% rise in the US - the largest for almost 30 years - another 50 bps from the RBA in July is not out of the question, with another 50 bps prior to Christmas. The issue for Lowe is that many, if not all, of the drivers of inflation are outside his control, with only higher interest rates at his disposal to rein in the problem. The combination of higher prices for fuel and everyday food, combined with increased mortgage costs, and the threat of energy shortages and increased costs, will only add further to inflation, and risk impacting consumer confidence, demand - and spending. Which of course is the objective, but it's a fine balance. Whilst central banks pumped free money into the system via QE, and lowered interest rates, investors happily responded by inflating markets, particularly tech and growth stocks, with the usual cry of "this time it will be different". Realistically it rarely is, and investors are now faced with the fact that markets often fall faster than they rise. Comments from fund managers that Hedge Clippings speaks to follow a common thread: Buy quality stocks at a reasonable or discounted price, and understand that markets will be volatile, and overshoot both on the upside and downside. To that we would add diversify, both across funds, strategy and asset class. News & Insights Is this a buying opportunity? | Equitable Investors Why country risk matters | 4D Infrastructure Why it's all about Earnings Growth | Insync Fund Managers |
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May 2022 Performance News Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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10 Jun 2022 - Hedge Clippings |10 June 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 10 June 2022 Careful what you wish for! Anthony Albanese and his team may have waited nine long years to get back to the other side of the chamber, but having won the right to do so, they've walked into a perfect storm, but not of their own making. Given that the first few post election days were spent with the new PM overseas, and the infamous behind the scenes factions spent a week deciding who he could have on the team bus anyway, you could say that 2 weeks is a long time in politics. In that time memories of Scomo's drought and fires have been replaced by an icy draft from the Antarctic, just as the world's energy supplies are in Putin's cross-hairs, and Australia's aging and ancient coal fired power stations start to give up the ghost. In a reflection of The Rime of the Ancient Mariner's "water, water, everywhere, nor any drop to drink", Australia's bountiful supply of gas is in short, or expensive, supply for home consumption. What's a climate activist to do, and who shot the albatros? Meanwhile, Chinese military rhetoric stepped up when a RAAF plane flew over a couple of sand banks in the South China Sea, Dutton fired up the debate over nuclear submarine availability to test relations with our major ally, and inflation, at this stage externally driven, continued to push the RBA to raise rates again (and higher) than expected, and two years of COVID induced labour shortages continue to test business and employers. To think it wasn't that long ago that the RBA and their overseas counterparts were trying desperately to generate some inflation. Back then there was concern over sky-rocketing house prices, which has now been replaced by fears of mortgage arrears, household debt and serviceability. The old equity market adage of "sell in May, and go away" didn't work this time around - in hindsight it should have been "remember, remember, to sell in November", but given the previous bank or share market crashes in October (1907, 1929, 1987), that wouldn't have helped. Unfortunately, the only word that springs to Hedge Clipping's simple mind that rhymes with October is "sober" - but as it's a Friday afternoon, and before a long weekend, let's not go there. News & Insights Manager Insights Video | Magellan Asset Management Sustainable earnings growth over multiple cycles | Insync Fund Managers Superbugs are outsmarting antibiotics | Magellan Asset Management |
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April 2022 Performance News May 2022 Performance News Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Australian Equities Fund |
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3 Jun 2022 - Hedge Clippings |03 June 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 03 June 2022
Once an election is done and dusted - or in this case lost and won - it's usual for the incoming government to switch from promising how well - or much better - they'll be at managing the economy, to suddenly trying to dampen voters' expectations. So it was this week, as the incoming treasurer, Dr. Jim Chalmers, warned of inflation "almost out of control" and "skyrocketing", at the same time as GDP growth came in ahead of forecasts, and a trade surplus of $10.5 billion, more than $1 billion ahead of consensus expectations. It's no wonder then to discover that Treasurer Chalmers' Ph.D. was not awarded in economics, but in political science, writing his doctoral thesis on none other than Paul Keating, the great political brawler. Blaming the previous mob for the problems facing the incoming government is as old as the hills - just ask Tony Abbott, who reminded us of the perils of the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd years for as long as he could until even his own party grew tired of it and gave him the heave-ho. For an incoming Treasurer, and a Dr. of Political Science to boot, it was pretty inevitable, but we're not sure it fooled too many, other than his own diehard supporters. Generally we haven't noticed too much of such political point scoring to date, with PM Albanese a refreshing change from "Bulldozer" Scomo. However, new energy minister Chris Bowen, last time around a hopeful treasurer himself until he and Bill Shorten shot themselves in their collective feet, couldn't help himself when talking about the unfolding gas crisis, which we understood in the immediate term might have more to do with the problems in Ukraine. Which leads us away from politics to finance and ESG investing, or at least consideration of ESG in funds management. This trend has been building for some time, and AGL's well publicised issues at the hands of Mike Cannon-Brookes, supported by big super, is - if you'll excuse the analogy - the canary in the coal mine. With climate and the environment front and centre (perhaps not all the way to the right) both nationally and globally, ESG credentials and investing will be one of the dominant fund management themes of the future. Rightfully, the incoming government has a clear mandate (particularly if you add in the Green and Teal vote) to act on energy/climate change and the environment. The challenge will be the speed and cost - in all its forms - of the transition away from fossil fuels, particularly coal. Meanwhile, there's been little to nothing heard about a push to nuclear energy as a reliable source of base load power. It's unlikely to happen under a Labour government, particularly one with the presence of the Greens in the Senate, but support for at least the investigation of Small Scale Nuclear should be on the table. If the Labour party can support nuclear powered submarines, and their small scale nuclear powered propellers, surely there's a precedent? News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Market Insights & Fund Performance | L1 Capital 10k Words | Equitable Investors Natural gas and midstream assets | 4D Infrastructure |
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April 2022 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund May 2022 Performance News |
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27 May 2022 - Hedge Clippings |27 May 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 27 May 2022
So the election (thankfully) is over. The result, with the benefit of hindsight, was predictable or at least hiding in plain sight. Whether one is pleased, disappointed, or couldn't care less would depend on your political hue - blue, red, green, teal, or yellow. Although he navigated the country reasonably safely through COVID, Scomo certainly stirred up some ill feeling across sections of the community who would normally have voted Liberal. Meanwhile, Albo didn't seem to be across all the economic facts, was sidelined for a week with COVID, and didn't appear to be the most inspirational of campaigners. However, it looks like he'll just get across the line in his own right, albeit with less than one third of the primary vote. Irrespective of one's view either way, having a clear winner is positive. Having laid out his policies, the new PM and his team should be entitled to get on with implementing them, without being distracted or blackmailed by minority groups with their own agenda. They'll be able to do that in the lower house. The Senate might be a different matter. So now we can get back to normal - or should that be the "new normal", the economy? In many ways, not much has changed. Debt levels are sky high at the household level, thanks to over a decade of falling interest rates, and, over the last couple of years, government COVID assistance thrown by the bucket-load at a willing individual and business community, whether it was needed or not. The problem with throwing bucket-loads of anything is that while some hits the mark, much of it misses and lands up being wasted - or adding to the mess. Market wise, sooner or later there was going to be a day of reckoning, with inflation back with a vengeance, aided by COVID, supply chain issues, and a war in Europe's backyard. Meanwhile, valuations in the tech/crypto sector in particular defied long term history lessons, and investors are learning, or being reminded of the lessons - or benefits - of diversification. Diversification can take many forms - from the simple (and not always very effective) investment in a broadly based low cost "index" fund to a concentrated fund investing in just 15 or 20 companies within the same index. However, depending on the skill of the fund manager, the concentrated fund might outperform in one market environment but significantly underperform in another. Thus logically, the careful or risk averse investor (those that hope for the best, but plan for the worst) spread their investments across funds to avoid manager risk, across strategies, and across asset classes. Diversification works well, as long as one considers the correlation between funds, strategy and asset class. In addition to correlation, a key indicator to consider is a fund's Down Capture Ratio, which in effect just measures correlation in negative markets. All too often, particularly in rapidly falling markets, diversification doesn't work if the correlation is high (as it is at present) between equities and bonds. With over 650 funds on the Fundmonitors.com database, there's the dilemma, or difficulty, of too much choice. In rapidly changing market environments, particularly in negative or falling markets, make sure that your fund selections are not only diversified, but also not overly correlated. For instance, including long/short funds, or in the current environment, funds investing in "clean energy" minerals such as Argonaut's or Terra Capital's focus on lithium or nickel. Outside equities, alternatives such as Laureola's Life Settlements, which has zero correlation to any other market or asset class. News & Insights A brave new world | Kardinia Capital Equity risk premium | IQuay Global Investors Revenge Travel | Insync Fund Managers Infrastructure assets are well placed for an era of inflation | Magellan Asset Management |
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April 2022 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund |
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20 May 2022 - Hedge Clippings |20 May 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 20 May 2022
Well, with one day to go, we're finally at the end of the road - or depending on one's perspective, one day from the start of a new one. Maybe that should be a fork in the road, depending on one's pronunciation of the word "fork". Come to think of it, with the recorded number of postal votes (for which counting doesn't start until Sunday) and the potential for a hung parliament, the outcome might not be known for a few days, or even weeks. The polls are suggesting a high proportion of undecided voters, or maybe that should be a large number who aren't that happy with Scomo, but haven't been swayed or convinced by the slogans (most, as far as we can work out, devoid of solid policy to back them up) of those hoping to take his place. Slogans or otherwise, it does indicate there's a level of underlying dissatisfaction in general in the community. One Scomo hater (and certainly not undecided) we spoke to this week complained he'd handled COVID badly (actually badly is a polite version of his rant) which of all the negative things he might reference, Scomo's handling of COVID, or the results, shouldn't be in question. This week the USA passed the sad milestone of 1 million COVID related deaths for a population of 332 million or one in every 332 Americans. Australia's COVID fatalities are now at 7,986, or 1 in 3,180 of our population. In round terms, we're 10 times less likely to have died from COVID than an American. While our number is 7,986 more than we'd like it to be, it hardly warrants the criticism that it's been badly handled. Of all the slogans, promises, or policies that have been announced, the most detailed and well publicised has been the respective support from both major parties for first home buyers, which, from our understanding, were both well intentioned, but targeting a different demographic. Albanese's "Help to Buy" policy was narrowly cast, both by virtue of the limit of 10,000 recipients each year, (so only 6.6% of the 150,000 first home buyers each year) and their annual income eligibility - $90,000 for singles, and $120,000 for couples, and only required a deposit of 2%. The government would fund up to 40% of the purchase price interest free, which would be capped depending on location. On the other side, Scomo's "Super Home Buyer Scheme" offer was more widely cast, allowing first home buyers to withdraw up to 40% of their super (up to a maximum of $50,000) to help fund their first home, in reality in most cases making it assistance with raising the deposit. Both schemes have their merits and deficiencies, or at least limitations, depending on one's financial position. A low income purchaser is unlikely to have sufficient super in the first case, and their issue is more likely to be being priced out of the housing market, which Albo's scheme, however limited, would resolve. For the wider audience, and possibly those on a higher income, an extra $50,000 towards the deposit, could make the difference, albeit it would likely be less than 10% of the purchase price of the property. Critics of both schemes came out of the woodwork. Industry Super Australia (ISA) presumably more concerned about missing out on fees than their members being able to gain a foothold in the housing market, (and therefore set themselves up to own their own home outright on retirement) claimed it was financially risky for the new home buyer and would hurt all Australians with a super account. Others said it would push the price of property up and therefore be self defeating. ISA's concern seems somewhat self-serving, given that in both cases the funds "borrowed" have to be returned on the sale of the property, along with a proportion of the capital gain. Over the last 10 years, the average capital gain on city residential property has been 5.61% vs an average of 8% for super, so technically they're correct (except those results were to June 2021 and ignore the latest down-turn). Except that ignores the fact that most aspiring first home buyers would readily forgo 2% p.a. to not paying rent, and at least get a foot on the bottom rung of the (CGT free) property ladder. It's unfortunate, politics being politics, that whoever wins the election can't offer both schemes, one targeted (correctly) at those unlikely to ever own their own property, and the other at those slightly more fortunate, but who still need assistance with their deposit in the over heated (but we suspect falling) property market. Meanwhile, what neither side seemed to have focused on (or have chosen not to) is what happens when the first home buyer wants to "trade up" to their next home in say 10 years' time? Under Albo's scheme (but less under Scomo's) 40% of their first home's sale price will go back from whence it came, meaning they'll either need to stay where they are forever, "trade down", or go back to the government of the day and ask for more. Therein lies an (Oliver) twist. News & Insights New Funds | FundMonitors.com What have rubber bands got to do with successful stock selection? | Insync Fund Managers Nestlé: innovation strengthens the moat | Magellan Asset Management Perception vs Reality: When a good story trumps rationality | Airlie Funds Management |
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April 2022 Performance News Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
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