News
9 Dec 2022 - Hedge Clippings |09 December 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 09 December 2022 |
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News & Insights Stock Story: ASML | Magellan Asset Management Investment Perspectives: No, bond vigilantes don't exist for a monetary sovereign | Quay Global Investors November 2022 Performance News L1 Capital Long Short Fund (Monthly Class) Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund |
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2 Dec 2022 - Hedge Clippings |02 December 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 02 December 2022 For the first time this year market analysts - or at least the media - are hinting that the interest rate medicine we've collectively been taking to curb inflation might be working, and as a result, the US Fed and Australia's RBA might take a breather on the size of future rate increases. Jerome Powell indicated as such this week, saying they might start as soon as December, while also cautioning that there was "still a long way to go in restoring price stability." Meanwhile, in Australia the ABS released monthly inflation figures this week, for the first time providing a monthly rather than a quarterly report, which showed annual inflation at 6.9% to the end of October, down from September's number of 7.3%. In his last statement on November 1, RBA Governor Philip Lowe expected inflation to peak around 8% by the end of the year, so there's some cause for optimism, even though his past (admittedly longer term) forecasting hasn't always been spot on. There's also a slight caveat on the make up of the ABS' monthly inflation numbers, which only measures 63% of the CPI basket, excluding for instance electricity and gas prices, which - unless you're living "off the grid" or under a rock - you might have noticed have been on the rise recently. With their board meeting next Tuesday, we won't have long to wait to see if the RBA holds off on their next rate increase, but most economists think not, having "only" increased them by 0.25% in October and November, and with a 2 month gap to the next meeting in February 2023. Meanwhile, it's worth remembering that in the US there's room to "ease off" as rates there rose by 0.75% in each of June, July, September, and November. Meanwhile, equity markets, renowned for pricing in future conditions and earnings, are pretty confident that the worst is over, with the ASX 200 in November posting its second successive monthly rise of over 6%, to take its 12 month return into positive territory, up (just) 0.39%. Adding in dividends, the total 12 month return was a not so shabby 5%, or just over 2% YTD since January. That doesn't mean everything has recovered, with the ASX Small Industrials down 21% over 12 months and the same YTD. For comparison purposes, the S&P 500's Total Return was down 9.21% over 12 months to the end of November, and -13.1% YTD, while for some really eye watering gyrations, the S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Market Index has toppled -71% over 12 months, having been UP 296% over 12 months to November 2021. All this goes to show that markets move in different ways at different times. There is no "one" market, hence the need for analysis and asset allocation. Investors and fund managers understand the cycles, even if they are frustrated by them at times when their preferred strategy or sector is facing headwinds, while other sectors are benefiting from tailwinds. This was shown best by the growth/value divergence (and subsequent reversal) of the past five years and is also reflected in the popularity and performance of specific investment strategies and sectors we see in the FundMonitors.com database. One such sector has been the significant, but often overlooked, fixed income sector, encompassing debt and credit funds which lack popular media appeal while equities (and the tech/growth sector in particular) often dominate investor and media interest. In falling markets the attraction of regular income and capital protection come into their own, potentially with a yield of 6-10%. Out of this has emerged a Peer Group of hybrid funds, blending credit and equity, or equity like elements, designed to provide the regular income needs of investors, coupled with either equity upside and/or downside protection. While no two funds are the same, the Hybrid Credit Peer Group comprises a variety of funds with varying investment processes and performances, and their returns and risk profiles have shown the benefits of the approach. For example, FundMonitors has recently completed a FACTORS Research Report on the *Altor AltFi Income Fund, which "invests via a portfolio of private credit instruments (loans) across a selected group of small to medium enterprises. Investors receive quarterly cash distributions, and gain further upside through free attaching equity exposure on selected debt investments the Fund makes" and has returned over 11% p.a. over 4 years since inception, with a Sharpe Ratio of 3.93%. Along similar lines is a new fund from *Collins St. Asset Management, which invests in convertible notes, targeting distributions of 2% per quarter [8% per annum], with the potential for equity upside on conversion of the loan at the end of the term. This week we caught up with Rob Hay from Collins St. to discuss the strategy, and you can watch the video below. These funds also seek to fill a gap in the funding market for smaller and medium sized companies, both listed and private, which was created post the Hayne Royal Commission as Banks and traditional lenders left the market, or restricted lending to the sector. *Both these funds are only open to wholesale or sophisticated investors. Past performance is no guarantee, and investors should seek appropriate advice. |
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Manager Insights | Collins St Asset Management The Long and The Short: Five stocks for the next five years | Kardinia Capital 10k Words | Equitable Investors October 2022 Performance News |
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25 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |25 November 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 25 November 2022 "One swallow doth not a summer make" So goes the old saying - just how old might surprise some readers, given its origin can be traced back to the Greek philosopher Aristotle, (384-322 BC) following which its first recorded use in the English language was more recently in 1539. But we digress, because we're using the phrase to describe the economy, and markets, which following a dismal year to date, not only had a welcome bounce or spring in October but have continued onward and upward in November. Time will tell if that's two "swallows" in a row, but it is certainly welcome. |
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New Funds on FundMonitors.com Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update October | Australian Secure Capital Fund What drives poor returns? | Insync Fund Managers 4D inflation podcast (part 2): The US Inflation Reduction Act | 4D Infrastructure October 2022 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund |
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18 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |18 November 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 18 November 2022 As we glide, slide or stagger towards the last few weeks of what will go down as a pretty forgettable year (unless you are Anthony Albanese who continues his dream start as PM) it is worth considering that thanks to a recent rally, the Australian equity market has performed well against its US equivalent. Australian managed funds - although as a whole positive in October - have found it a difficult year as well, with the average equity based fund on the FundMonitors.com data base down 11.31% over 12 months to the end of October, vs. a fall of just 2.01% for the ASX200 total return index. Over the same 12 months (based on 88% of the results to date) only 16% of equity funds managed to outperform the ASX 200, which will no doubt be taken as welcome news by the fans of index or passive funds. However, we believe that misses the point - namely that just as the performance of individual stocks within the index varies, so too will the performance of managed funds. The key, depending on one's strategy or objective, is to select the outperformers. For instance, over 12 months the performance of the Top 10 funds has ranged from 19.8% through to 43.7%, while over 3 years the range has been 17.97% to 44.67% per annum. Over 5 years the number drops, but the best performing fund - Glenmore Australian Equities - returned 19% pa. followed by Regal's Small Companies Fund at 18.25% and with Bennelong's Emerging Companies Fund in third place at 17.41%. Consistency is not always easy to achieve: Of the Top 10 funds over 5 years, only 5 funds were positive over 1, 2, 3 and 4 years as well (Glenmore, Samuel Terry, Regal Amazon, GQC Global, and Australian Eagle's Long Short Fund) which probably underlines how difficult 2022 has been, particularly in the small cap space. Added to the variability of returns has been the rise - and fall - of crypto funds, which took out 3 of the Top 10 spots over 2 and 3 years, but to the surprise of no one, take out 5 places among the 10 worst performing funds over 1 year. When it comes to investing in managed funds, success is a combination of careful research and diversification. |
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Magellan Global Strategy Update | Magellan Asset Management Drawdowns and small stocks for God-like performance | Equitable Investors October 2022 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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11 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |11 November 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 11 November 2022 Superannuation in the spotlight Australia's compulsory super system came under fire this week - or, to be more accurate the inequality of the generous taxation treatment it provides those with higher incomes and higher super balances came under attack. From small beginnings way back in the 1980s, and the love child of Paul Keating and, from memory Bill Kelty (where's Google when you need it?) "Super" has been a super success by all accounts. Unfortunately, it has been tweaked - or raided - over the years, generally by politicians and in particular treasurers who couldn't and can't help themselves, particularly when it comes to other peoples' retirement savings. Having said that, John Howard was probably an exception, looking after his "battlers" with a generous lump sum contribution, which was great as long as you were one of the battlers able to take advantage of it. The issue now appears to be that the Super pie has grown to such an extent, and which is forecast to double again in the not too distant future, that the 15% concessional tax rate on contributions, and the tax free rate when in retirement phase, is costing the budget a motza - particularly for those lucky enough, or smart with high balances. This goes against the grain normally applying to income, wealth, and tax. Normally, unless you're a Kerry Packer, the more one earns, and in many places in the world, the more one is worth, the higher your tax rate. We would hasten to add that Hedge Clippings is no expert when it comes to Super, as might be deduced from the simple explanation above. However, there are a number of arguments both ways, as well as a number of other flaws in the system which were either not recognised previously, or were possibly kicked down the road for some other government to address. The concessional tax rates applying to Super undoubtedly favour those better off, but they're not the ones to blame. The politics of envy being what they are however, it is much easier to now make the beneficiaries out to be the villains. They simply applied the rules as they stood at the time to their best advantage. There would seem to be other issues with Super at the mid to lower end of the scale as well. While accepting the argument that after 40 plus years working and contributing (even if you had no choice and it was your employer doing so) that your lump sum is "yours", surely the majority of it should be paid as a pension or annuity to ensure you don't rely on the welfare system for the remaining 20 plus years you are expected to live for? Irrespective, the stage has been set for yet another re-work of the overly complicated Super rules come next year's budget. In the meantime, we're just being softened up for it by some well placed PR. Finally we can't let the subject of politicians and Super pass without taking a swipe at their own pension arrangements down in Canberra. From memory, non contributory, and at 15% plus, with various other perks, that's inequality! Don't expect that to change in next May's budget papers! Meanwhile to markets: Cryptocurrencies were hammered further this week following the failure of FTX, a crypto exchange, reinforcing the danger not only of the coins themselves, but also the added counterparty risk in an unregulated market. And finally, US markets had their best day on record when inflation came in ahead of expectations. Or could it have been partly the expectation that Donald Trump's "Red Wave" had made not much more than a ripple? |
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Webinar Recording - New Investment Opportunity & Fund Update | Collins St Asset Management 4D inflation podcast (part 1): Paul Volcker, central banks, and the UK | 4D Infrastructure October 2022 Performance News Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund |
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4 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |04 November 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 04 November 2022
Last week's Hedge Clippings left the subject of Jim Chalmers and his first budget well alone, probably because at first sight there didn't seem to be much to it. Apart from flagging that inflation was an issue, that energy prices were rising, it left the hard decisions to be made in next year's May budget. It seemed to us that for the time being the government was keen to deliver on some core deliverables while making sure they didn't break the core promises made during the election campaign, and in doing so frighten the punters - aside of course from the promise to deliver lower energy prices. As such, Chalmers kicked the can down the road to the May budget, while at the same time softening us up for the fact that times are going to get tougher, and that inflation was "the number one scourge" while there wasn't much he's going to be able to do about it. The fact is that inflation both here and abroad shows no sign of easing - in fact, the opposite, particularly given the lagging effect of floods - and in spite of the efforts of central banks to try to curb it. As such, this week's rate hike came as little surprise, and the RBA's increase of 0.25% seemed almost insignificant compared with the US Fed's 0.75%, with the same from the Bank of England. One thing seems certain - the outlook for inflation is deteriorating, at the same time as its duration is extending. Inevitably interest rates will keep rising until the inflation trend reverses, and in the interim - however long that may end up being - the potential for a recession, particularly in the US, and the UK - keeps rising in line with the interest rates. If we cast our minds back to just 12 months ago, the RBA wasn't expecting inflation (and interest rates) to be where they are today. Now they're forecasting inflation of 8% this year, before falling back to around the 3% mark in 2024. The problem is that their past forecasting record is not too good, so while we hope they're right, we suspect they'll be found to be wrong. |
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Magellan Infrastructure Strategy Update | Magellan Asset Management The storm of inflation | Kardinia Capital |
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28 Oct 2022 - Hedge Clippings |28 October 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 28 October 2022
When you're in a hole, stop digging! There's an old investment adage that goes along the lines of "let your winners run, and cut your losses early". However most fund managers have a stated mandate or strategy, so it's not quite as easy as that, particularly when there's an underlying shift in economic conditions, market direction, or style. While an individual investor - assuming they have the knowledge or good advice - can adjust more easily, such as by changing sector and stock selections, buying option protection, or moving to cash, (although in truth, many don't - until it's too late) that's easier said than done - without the benefit of hindsight. For many fund managers, while they may have the knowledge or foresight, they are also constrained by the mandate included in the fund's offer documents. They can mitigate risk to a certain degree by retaining or buying defensive stocks at the expense of those with economic or sector headwinds, but unless they're long/short, have the ability to de-risk through options and derivatives, or have a wider mandate, there's less flexibility available. This creates issues for investors in those funds as well. Almost all offer documents will indicate that an investment in the fund should be considered over 5 or 7 years to ride out both performance variations and changes to the underlying economic and market conditions. So do you stick with the funds you have, or adjust allocations to meet the market? The answer to the above dilemma will vary according to individual circumstances, including the level of diversification in an existing portfolio, a view on the ever changing economic outlook, and each individual investor's risk profile. What makes it difficult at the present time is the following broad statistics: Over 12 months to the end of September:
If we wind the clock back 12 months, how times have changed:
So in the space of 12 months, the best performing sector/peer group has fallen from the top to the bottom performer. Talk about rooster to feather duster! Statistics of course can prove or disprove anything, depending on what you want other people to believe. Within each of the Peer Groups the individual fund's performances also vary dramatically. What however is the lesson? Obviously individual fund selection matters, as can asset allocation, and in the above instance, peer group selection. But given those variations and fluctuations, plus a changing global economy, the one over-riding message is diversification. With appropriate diversification, and an understanding of one's risk tolerance, a portfolio should be able to deliver through the cycle. Fund Monitors' Peer Group Comparison and Analysis is available here. New Funds on FundMonitors.com Investment Perspectives: A closer look at US housing | Quay Global Investors 10k Words - October Edition | Equitable Investors China's deflating property market threatens wider economic trouble | Magellan Asset Management |
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September 2022 Performance News Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund |
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21 Oct 2022 - Hedge Clippings |21 October 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 21 October 2022 It wasn't so long ago that most Australians were somewhat embarrassed - whatever their political affiliations - by the turnover of residents of The Lodge. It was a tumultuous period, following 11 years of political stability under John Howard. Rudd yo-yo'd with Gillard before the Liberals got into the act with Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull, and then Scomo taking the keys. Oh! to have the government's removalist contract during those heady years! On the face of it, those times seem well past under Albo (PM number 7 since Kevin '07 if you count him twice) introduced his seemingly steady hand. Not to be outdone, it seems the UK is intent on going down the same track. Since Labour's Tony Blair resigned in 2007 after 10 years as PM (interestingly almost shadowing John Howard's tenure, albeit on the opposite side of politics, although both supported the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq) Great Britain has had 5 PM's, and within a week that will rise to 6. Who knows, it may even herald the return of Boris Johnson to mirror the Gillard - Rudd years? However much we might have felt things were a little crazy in Canberra in those days, surely nothing comes close to the chaos that seems to have enveloped Westminister over the past six months or so. One sort of knew that life under Boris would be a roller coaster - in many ways that's what he promised - even if his eventual demise was akin to something out of Alice in Wonderland and the Mad Hatter's tea party, except Boris always made a show of being hatless, and the tea party was replaced by champagne in the garden at Number 10. The whole selection process for his successor seemed equally bizarre, as two candidates from the same party went hammer and tongs at each other in a series of televised debates, with the loser among their peers getting the nod from the conservative party faithful. The final outcome (with the benefit of hindsight of course) was the elevation of Liz Truss, formerly anti-monarchy, as PM, which seemed a triumph of ambition over ability, or as King Charles lll was heard to mutter; 'Back again? Dear oh dear!'. No wonder! All this might be amusing (or at least "bemusing") were it not so serious. Once looked up to (by some at least) as the centre of democracy, and the cornerstone of the World's economy, the UK is now in political and economic disarray at the very time stability in both is required. One can only hope that given the importance of the task, the next incumbents of Numbers 10 and 11 Downing Street last a little longer, and restore some sense of order. Back home, the Albanese government appears to have restored stability to Australia in an unstable world. Next week the new Treasurer brings down his first budget, with the main thrust well telegraphed via the media either to get feedback (abandon legislated Stage lll tax cuts at your peril) or to soften us up for reality (live within your means, and accept inflation, and higher interest rates). Meanwhile, the week after next the RBA meets on Cup Day, November 1st, with the US FOMC meeting on November 1st & 2nd. Both are likely to result in a rate rise, although the RBA's might only be 0.25%, while the FOMC is poised for a 93% probability of another 0.75% hike according to CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. With reports of mortgage stress and refinancing increasing, and impending price rises as a result of the widespread floods, one would expect that a rise of 0.25% from the RBA will be sufficient. The Inflation Reduction Act will drive US' efforts towards net-zero | 4D Infrastructure 'Small Talk' - Mood Swings | Equitable Investors |
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September 2022 Performance News Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) |
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14 Oct 2022 - Hedge Clippings |14 October 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 14 October 2022 We need to take the medicine, and hopefully it won't kill us. You don't need Hedge Clippings to dampen your mood on a Friday afternoon (at the end of another volatile and soggy week) by telling you the world is in a precarious position. Sadly, it's a fact: We need to take the medicine, like it or not. Unfortunately, it's not a pleasant medicine, or even a single dose, as the problems we're facing are multiple, and, by and large, of our own making. Of course, by "our" we're mainly meaning politicians and central banks, but not entirely. Collectively, the broader population selects politicians, particularly in democracies, and those politicians, and the bureaucrats and central bankers, take us in a chosen direction. We're probably veering off track there, but the reality is that for the past decade or so investors, homeowners and businesses have been happy to accept the easy monetary conditions, ever lower interest rates, and lower (or negative) inflation, which in turn saw asset prices - particularly equities and property - soar to unrealistic levels. As long as the majority were beneficiaries, it was a case of "happy days" or possibly more correctly, "happy daze". Deep down, if we stopped to think about it long enough, or hard enough, we knew there'd be a day of reckoning. Some older and wiser heads - think Warren Buffet and his offsider Charlie Munger - have long warned about this reckoning, but "hey, they're almost 100, so what would they know?" With thanks to L1 Capital's latest quarterly report, listen or watch The Richter Scales' 2007 parody "Here Comes Another Bubble". History repeating itself! It is no secret that the main disease is inflation, and the medicine is higher interest rates. Overnight US inflationary figures were worse than expected, presumably leading to a further 0.75% rate rise at the next Fed meeting. Hey presto, US markets turned around and ended over 2% higher on the day, and the ASX following suit. Go figure? However, with the S&P500 down over 25% YTD (although less than half of that for the ASX200's YTD total return) there are inevitably investors itching to catch the bottom of the market, particularly for oversold quality stocks, while others wonder if it is too late to sell. Inflation may be the current issue, and higher rates are the medicine, but that will/may (delete which ever option you think least likely) lead to a looming recession, and not just in the US and Europe. The IMF has downgraded global growth from 6% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022, and further to 2.7% in 2023, and central bankers are adamant they'll do whatever it takes to tame inflation. Back to Charlie Munger, who claims central banks have for years been ignoring the problem by persevering with easy money for far too long, rather than confronting the problem. As anyone would tell you, ignoring a problem doesn't make it go away. Worse still, the problem normally worsens, or to come back to our medical analogy, the stronger and more unpleasant the medicine is required to cure the disease. Of course we're referring to financial markets and the world economy, but exactly the same principle applies in politics: Take Vladimir Putin, who encouraged by his friendship with Donald Trump, and by Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas, was allowed to get away with murder (literally) until the world is faced with a dilemma: Will he, or won't he do the unthinkable? Rewarding bad behaviour doesn't work. New Funds on FundMonitors.com The energy crisis is likely to last years | Magellan Asset Management Which companies are posting strong and growing results? | Insync Fund Managers |
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September 2022 Performance News Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund L1 Capital Long Short Fund (Monthly Class) |
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7 Oct 2022 - Hedge Clippings |07 October 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 07 October 2022 For the past 60 years Bob Dylan, arguably the greatest musical influence of our time, has delivered classical and songs, and with memorable lines. None more so than one from one of his earlier works, Subterranean Homesick Blues, which included the line "You don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows." Admittedly, much, if not all, of the rest of the song's meaning, remains a mystery to most, us included, but (with apologies for the YouTube ad) the video clip was also an early classic. The RBA's media release following their monthly meeting is a master of understatement, but often it is the last sentence which tells which way the wind is really blowing. In March 2020 the RBA dropped its cash rate target to an unprecedented 0.25% with the following comment: "The Board will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2-3 per cent target band." It's worth noting that back then the objective was to create some inflation... In November of the same year, the RBA eased further to an even more unprecedented rate of 0.10% with the comment: "Given the outlook, the Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least three years... and is prepared to do more if necessary." Oops! Where was the weatherman that time? To be fair to the accelerator/brake analogy, history shows that the cash rate stuck at 1.5% from August 2016 to May 2019, before it declined again through to November 2020 to bottom, and stay at 0.10%. That was until May this year, when it rose by 0.25%, followed by four consecutive increases of 0.5%, and then this week's increase of 0.25%, taking the cash rate to 2.6%. Tuesday's RBA media release finished with this: "The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target, and will do what is necessary to achieve that." It goes without saying that the board's intention is to now reduce inflation to 2-3%, which they expect to achieve (just) in 2024. Part of where we're going with this is not to say the RBA's job is easy, but that the resultant effect of easing or tightening are pretty inevitable (if not immediate) on the economy, and particularly housing prices. To repeat or borrow Dylan's words, when it comes to property prices, "you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows". It stands to reason - actually supply and demand - that a prolonged period of easy money, especially with little or low unemployment - will result in an increase in property prices. Equally, the lower the interest rate, and the longer it lasts for - or in the RBA's case their November 2020 expectation for "at least three years" - the stronger will be the increase. While money was easy and housing prices were rocketing, the RBA and media were concerned about housing affordability. Now, with interest rates and repayments rising, and property prices falling, there are dire warnings of mortgage stress and the potential for foreclosure. So which way is the wind blowing at the moment? This week's rise of only 0.25% against the expectations of 0.50%, although unlikely to be the last in this cycle, did signal a significant shift in the RBA's thinking that this time the peak cash rate should be no more than 3.25%. That of course assumes that inflation declines. And sometimes that weatherman is not so predictable. Europe Trip Insights | 4D Infrastructure Why on earth would Experiences thrive with all the gloom around today? | Insync Fund Managers McDonalds Story | Magellan Asset Management |
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September 2022 Performance News |
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