NEWS
19 Nov 2018 - Fund Review: Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund October 2018
BENNELONG LONG SHORT EQUITY FUND
Attached is our most recently updated Fund Review on the Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund.
- The Fund is a research driven, market and sector neutral, "pairs" trading strategy investing primarily in large-caps from the ASX/S&P100 Index, with over 15-years' track record and an annualised returns of over 15.8%.
- The consistent returns across the investment history indicate the Fund's ability to provide positive returns in volatile and negative markets and significantly outperform the broader market. The Fund's Sharpe Ratio and Sortino Ratio are 0.94 and 1.54 respectively.
For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.
AFM Fund Review - October 2018 (pdf format)
16 Nov 2018 - Hedge Clippings - 16 November, 2018
Times are tough!
Markets remain tough. China is slowing ahead of the tariffs kicking in at 25% in January, the UK is anything but a United Kingdom, valuations (particularly tech and growth) are stretched, banks are tightening credit whilst the property market is awash with unsold units and an upcoming election next year could, and probably will, significantly change negative gearing, imputation credits and the labour market, the ASX is back to levels of 12 months ago, and volatility has spiked.
What makes a good fund manager in tough times?
It would be trite to reply to this question with the obvious answer "one who doesn't lose my capital", but in reality that's about it. However, the "why" and "how" behind the answer is less obvious. Given that markets are undoubtedly in the midst of tough times at the moment it is worth taking a deeper dive into a fund's quantitative performance and risk analytics to look behind the numbers.
This week we hosted a joint presentation from two different fund managers, Dean Fergie from Cyan, and Rodney Brott from DS Capital. Both are "boutiques", running concentrated portfolios and managing relatively small amounts of capital on behalf of both themselves and their investors. That gives a clue to one answer - invest with managers who have a significant amount of the own capital at risk alongside their investors and don't run other PA positions outside the fund. Both Dean and Rodney started their funds primarily to manage their own capital the way they'd like to, and so are literally putting their money where their mouths are.
Both funds have relatively small amounts of FUM by industry standards and as a result can not only be more nimble but can invest in smaller cap stocks without taking huge liquidity risks. Moving outside the ASX200 not only avoids the large cap stocks which are fully covered by brokers' and institutional research, and therefore are more efficiently priced, but also avoids the rising (and falling) tide effect of index and passive investing. It also increases choice, which of course can be a double-edged sword as it requires significant research to find the hidden gems amongst the dirt.
Both have the flexibility to move out of the market to cash when deemed appropriate, although in practical terms this means generally in the range of 20 to 40%. "Appropriate" means not only when the market as a whole is risky, but also when they can't find quality companies in which to invest at attractive valuations.
Quality companies and attractive valuations means having a deep understanding of the sector, the company, and its competitors, and involves multiple company visits and "eyeballing" management as well as analysing their financials from which to finally invest in as few as 30 to 40 positions. Understanding was a recurring theme, not only understanding why to invest and what price represents value, but also understanding changes to their original investment thesis, or valuation metrics, and therefore when it is time to reduce or exit a position.
Speaking to one of the investors present at the lunch afterwards, the ability to sell a stock is where he felt the best managers have a real edge over the individual investor. Good managers don't use hope as a strategy, and when circumstances, news or valuations change, they're prepared to cut the position accordingly.
Finally, with approximately 58% of all equity funds having reported their October results, 54% of those have outperformed the ASX200 Accumulation Index's October return of -6.05%, whilst only 2% have managed to achieve positive returns. Of the funds that outperformed the market in October, the average return was -1.39%, with returns ranging from -5.94% up to +7.81%.
16 Nov 2018 - Aussie Property - Khe Sanh
15 Nov 2018 - Performance Report: Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund
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| Fund Overview | In a typical environment the Fund will hold around 70 stocks comprising 35 pairs. Each pair contains one long and one short position each of which will have been thoroughly researched and are selected from the same market sector. Whilst in an ideal environment each stock's position will make a positive return, it is the relative performance of the pair that is important. As a result the Fund can make positive returns when each stock moves in the same direction provided the long position outperforms the short one in relative terms. However, if neither side of the trade is profitable, strict controls are required to ensure losses are limited. The Fund uses no derivatives and has no currency exposure. The Fund has no hard stop loss limits, instead relying on the small average position size per stock (1.5%) and per pair (3%) to limit exposure. Where practical pairs are always held within the same sector to limit cross sector risk, and positions can be held for months or years. The Bennelong Market Neutral Fund, with same strategy and liquidity is available for retail investors as a Listed Investment Company (LIC) on the ASX. |
| Manager Comments | Bennelong noted the Fund fared poorly in October, returning -7.05% in a month which featured elevated market volatility, general weakness, corporate activity and an abundance of updates to earnings guidance at AGMs. With respect to company earnings and guidance updates, both the long and short portfolio experienced favourable bias of upgrades/downgrades. However, company fundamentals were overwhelmed by the market favouring defensive traits in preference to operating/fundamental performance, which Bennelong noted is unusual in this type of environment. In addition, Bennelong believe there was element of mean reversion in the Fund's September and October performance following their strong August return of +10.59%. Key contributing long/short pairs included long Orica (ORI)/ short Downer EDI (DOW), long Ramsay Health Care (RHC)/ short Primary (PRY)/Healthscope (HSO) and long Woolworths (WOW)/ short Metcash(MTS). Detractors included long Xero (XRO)/ short MYOB (MYO), long TPG Telecom (TPM)/ short Telstra (TLS) and long Iluka Resources (ILU)/ short Rio Tinto (RIO). Bennelong noted the indicative bid by private equity firm KKR for MYOB negatively impacted the Fund's long Xero / short MYOB pair, which accounted for one third of the Fund's negative return for the month. |
| More Information |
14 Nov 2018 - Performance Report: Harvest Lane Asset Management Absolute Return Fund
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| Fund Overview | Harvest Lane Asset Management employs a conservative, highly selective and opportunistic approach. Using their extensive knowledge in the area of corporate actions, the Fund's managers assess each opportunity based on a thoughtful, diligent and disciplined process and invest where they believe an opportunity exists to generate above average investment returns relative to the risk incurred. Investment decisions are made without speculating on market direction, with rigid risk controls enforced to minimise the risk of large losses of investor capital. The Fund invests in securities that are predominantly listed on the ASX and occasionally in those listed in other developed markets. Equity swaps and other derivatives may be used at times to reduce risk. The fund typically holds high levels of cash in the absence of sufficiently attractive opportunities to deploy investor capital in accordance with its objectives. |
| Manager Comments | A key tenet of the Absolute Return Fund strategy is the focus on downside protection through careful selection of positions that are not only uncorrelated to broader equity markets, but also uncorrelated with each other. As a result, periods of strong outperformance against the market are usually observed when the market is going through periods of excessive weakness. This is backed up by the Fund's Sharpe and Sortino ratios since inception, 1.00 and 1.71 respectively, which, by contrast with the Index's Sharpe of 0.62 and Sortino of 0.85, emphasise the Fund's capacity to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns whilst ensuring investors' capital is protected. This is also supported by the Fund's down-capture ratio since inception of -34.93%, indicating that, on average, the Fund has significantly outperformed in the market's negative months. Harvest Lane noted a plethora of factors were identified as potential causes of the declines seen in October, including US interest rate concerns, fears of a US/China trade war, the start of a deflation in equity asset 'bubbles', emerging market currency crises, Brexit, and instability in the EU. They believe investors' heavy biases to risky long-only equity strategies is a major risk factor that is all too easily forgotten in a decade long bull market. They noted that volatility has only just moved back to more normal levels and equity markets are capable of much worse performance than has been seen in the low volatility environment of recent years. |
| More Information |
13 Nov 2018 - From Weak Owners to Strong Owners - Assets in a Bear Market
12 Nov 2018 - If 24 LICs ran the Melbourne Cup, which would be our favourites..?
12 Nov 2018 - Performance Report: Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund
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| Fund Overview | The Fund is managed as one portfolio but comprises and combines two separately managed exposures: 1. An investment in the top 20 stocks of the markets, which the Fund achieves by taking an indexed position in the S&P/ASX 20 Index; and 2. An investment in the stocks beyond the S&P/ASX 20 Index. This exposure is managed on an active basis using a fundamental core approach. The Fund may also invest in securities expected to be listed on the ASX, securities listed or expected to be listed on other exchanges where such securities relate to ASX-listed securities.Derivative instruments may be used to replicate underlying positions and hedge market and company specific risks. The companies within the portfolio are primarily selected from, but not limited to, the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index. The Fund typically holds between 40-55 stocks and thus is considered to be highly concentrated. This means that investors should expect to see high short-term volatility. The Fund seeks to achieve growth over the long-term, therefore the minimum suggested investment timeframe is 5 years. |
| Manager Comments | The Fund returned -1.20% over the September quarter versus the Index's +1.53%. The Fund's return was impacted by underperformance of the Fund's ex-20 holdings. Bennelong noted that over time, in light of the latest quarterly return, the Fund's quarter-to-quarter performances have averaged out to provide clients with very above-market returns. Key detractors over the quarter included Flight Centre, Costa Group, Reliance Worldwide and BWX Limited. Read the Fund's latest report for Bennelong's analysis of these companies' activities. Bennelong have neither a bearish or bullish outlook on the market. They see Australian equities to be relatively attractive, however, they still believe there is the need to remain selective. They remain constructive on the market for the following reasons - stock fundamentals look solid, valuations are relatively attractive and investor sentiment is supportive. They also believe there is always a need to be diligent and manage risk and thus have ensured the portfolio is well positioned on a risk/return basis. |
| More Information |
12 Nov 2018 - Performance Report: 4D Global Infrastructure Fund
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| Fund Overview | The fund will be managed as a single portfolio of listed global infrastructure securities including regulated utilities in gas, electricity and water, transport infrastructure such as airports, ports, road and rail as well as communication assets such as the towers and satellite sectors. The portfolio is intended to have exposure to both developed and emerging market opportunities, with country risk assessed internally before any investment is considered. The maximum absolute position of an individual stock is 7% of the fund. |
| Manager Comments | The strongest performer in September was Brazilian Rail operator Rumo (+9.1%) on the back of the ANTT recommendation for the early renewal of one of its concessions. The weakest performer was global port operator DP World (-11.6%), impacted by increasing global trade tensions. 4D believe that, despite the ongoing posturing between China and the US, the trade talks will ultimately resolve. They also believe that, despite a softening in the global macro outlook, it does remain positive across the board and supportive of global port volumes. 4D remain fundamental buyers of DP World. Given the generally positive global macro environment, 4D remain overweight user pay assets which have a direct correlation to macro strength. However, ongoing geo-political concerns, plus near-term elections, sees them maintain core exposure to quality defensive utilities. |
| More Information |
9 Nov 2018 - Hedge Clippings - 09 November, 2018
In October, global equity markets reflected investors' concerns, with the S&P500 falling -6.84% and flowing through to the ASX200, which also dropped -6.05% for the month. On top of September's decline of -1.26%, it was a case of thank goodness it's now November, and to date at least, a return to some kind of stability.
With only just over 20% of October funds in AFM's database having reported so far, there have been the usual wide range of results. Of those that have reported, just over 50% outperformed the ASX. Meanwhile only 10% have provided positive returns, with those not surprisingly dominated by fixed income, credit or managed futures funds, and NWQ's new global liquid alternatives fund of funds leading the way with a positive return of +3.51%. Other results catching our attention included Harvest Lane's Absolute Return Fund and ARCO's Absolute Trust, which fell only 0.11% and 0.68% respectively. While both results were marginally negative, it is unlikely their investors would have been overly disappointed.
Over 12 months to the end of October the ASX is now in negative territory, with many funds matching that, emphasising the point we always make that averages can be deceptive, and careful fund selection - and diversification - is vital!
Meanwhile this week, to nobody's surprise the RBA kept rates on hold, saving the property market from further stress. As usual there are those who are forecasting further falls, and others who take a more positive view, which we suppose is what makes a market!
Hedge Clippings is probably more in the glass half empty camp on property prices, although there is no single residential market in Australia, with a range of conditions in individual suburbs across each city that vary dramatically. In some, such as units away from the CBD, there have already been reports of falls in values of 30%, most probably reflecting a combination of oversupply and tightening of lending standards by the big banks. Elsewhere, where the supply and demand are more balanced, quality will no doubt prove the difference.
Our concern is this: IF (ok, it's an IF) the economy falters in 2019 - possibly as a result of a change of government, and therefore policy changes such as the removal of franking credits, negative gearing, the final outcome of the Hayne RC, or simply a fear of the unknown - the housing market will fall further. If so, consumer confidence will fall with it, and the RBA will have little room, or the option, to cut rates.
