NEWS
11 Aug 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 11 August 2023
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 11 August 2023 CBA's results shows what's happening in the 'burbs. News & Insights Political lobbying risks in the US | 4D Infrastructure The three factors driving stock returns | Magellan Asset Management July 2023 Performance News 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
4 Aug 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 04 August 2023
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 04 August 2023 To the surprise of very few, including the combined team at Hedge Clippings, for the second month in a row, the RBA and Philip Lowe left interest rates on hold at 4.1% this week at his penultimate board meeting. That doesn't mean we're out of the woods, or that future rises are off the table. Equally it's too early to forecast an early spring, and an associated easing, any time soon. As usual, particularly after his previous attempt of unsuccessfully predicting a date for future movements, Lowe was cautious, as the following extract from his post meeting statement shows: "Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." We think that's the RBA's version of having two bob each way on a two horse race, but with the inevitable over-ride to finish: "The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that." Today's RBA quarterly statement on monetary policy was also to a great degree a case of stating the obvious: Inflation is on the way down, but still too high. The labour market is still tight, unemployment at 3.5% is historically low, but both job vacancies and underemployment are showing positive signs (unless you're under-employed). Economic growth is subdued, and the outlook for the domestic economy is "subject to a range of uncertainties". Finally, "there are both upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook." There's another two bob each way bet! Ever consistent, the Statement's Overview page finished with their familiar and now favourite phrase: "The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome." We can't say we haven't been warned. Meanwhile yesterday's ABS Retail Sales figures for the June quarter confirmed just how finely balanced the economy is. The numbers showed that volumes fell (-0.5%) for the third quarter in a row, the first time since 2008 (during the GFC and the chaotic days of Kevin '07) that Australia has clocked three negative quarters on the trot. The June result takes the full fall over 12 months to 1.4%, the worst 12 month result (excluding the period during the Covid lockdown) since Keating's "recession we had to have" in 1991. Retail spending on food, takeaway, cafes and restaurants fell, as did household goods, while clothing, footwear, and "personal accessories" were the only category to go against the trend, rising 1.1%. On the face of it, those struggling cut back on food and household items, but still looked after their appearance and personal items, obviously the new "real" necessities of life. However, it does seem that Lowe will leave the RBA in mid-September with the economy still on his "narrow path". Whether Michele Bullock can carry on the task, and steer the Australian economy to its much hoped for soft landing, remains to be seen. News & Insights Stage two of the downturn - earnings downgrades | Touchstone Asset Management In Conversation with Airlie's Analysts | Airlie Funds Management June 2023 Performance News Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
28 Jul 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 28 July 2023
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 28 July 2023 One of the difficulties of including the topics of inflation and interest rates in a weekly commentary is that in recent times it has been difficult to avoid the subject, even if it does end up becoming a tad tedious - quite possibly for both the author and recipients! This week therefore we'll cover it briefly before moving onto managed funds and peer group performances. True to our previous expectations, this week's June CPI figures (+0.8% for the quarter, and 6.0% over 12 months), provided some positive indications for inflation, and thus for next week's decision on interest rates. Wednesday's figures at least justified the RBA's July pause, and should herald a further pause next Tuesday. It's too early to claim the inflation battle has been won, and further "stickiness" could well trigger calls for another rise, but the June quarter figure of just 0.8% (annualised at 3.6%) is the lowest since, or equal to, the quarterly result for the June quarter of 2021. All this with historically low unemployment, and a strong labour market. The RBA's current cash rate of 4.1% (assuming it doesn't rise next week) is well below US rates, which rose again by 0.25% to 5.25 to 5.5% this week, as did European rates, while the UK's rate is at 5%, and is expected to touch 6%. The previously much maligned Philip Lowe looks to have been vindicated for his "narrow path" approach, balancing the fight against inflation with the need to keep the economy running, and with as close to full employment as possible. However, don't expect the RBA to take their foot off the pedal too quickly, and certainly don't expect any forecasts when that may happen from incoming RBA governor Michele Bullock. While overseas central banks are still increasing rates in an attempt to put the final nail in their inflationary coffin, Australia may have to accept 4.1% for a while longer yet to ensure the RBA's 2-3% target is secure. Moving right along... to fund performance: Inevitably, at the individual fund level the results over the past year or so have been varied. Over the six months to June, 58% of equity based funds outperformed the ASX200, while over twelve months that number dropped to just 8.1%, indicating how difficult many managers found 2022 as central banks grappled with unexpected inflation, and Russia invaded Ukraine. However, all but one of the 17 Peer Groups that make up the Fund Monitors database of 700+ managed funds recorded a positive result in June, and also over the previous three and six months. The exceptions were Fixed Income - Bonds (-0.48% in June, and -0.50% for three months) and Property (-0.32% over six months). However, over one year to the end of June, all Peer Groups (averages) were in positive territory, with Equity Long, both Large and Small Cap, and Australian and Global, all returning 10% or more. Digital Assets topped the twelve month list at 32.64%, having recovered from their (very) average 12 month return of -48.68% to December 2022. Looking at comparative Peer Group performances on a broad consistency basis (in other words, no drawdowns over both the short or longer term), the standouts have been Equity Alternatives, Alternatives, Fixed Income, and Hybrid Credit. Full details (registration required) can be found here. Finally, next Tuesday at 4.15 PM AEST we are running the latest of our webinar series, featuring three managers investing in Infrastructure assets. Register here or below to join AFM's COO Damen Purcell, as he delves into the opportunities and risks of infrastructure investing with Sarah Shaw from Bennelong's 4D Infrastructure, Ben McVicar from Magellan's Infrastructure Fund, and Matt Lorback from Atlas Infrastructure. Upcoming Events Infrastructure Funds - Analysing the Opportunities and Risks Webinar | FundMonitors.com Altor AltFi Income Fund - June 2023 Quarterly Webinar Update | Altor Capital News & Insights Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management Forever Chemicals - PFAS | PURE Asset Management June 2023 Performance News Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Insync Global Quality Equity Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
21 Jul 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 21 July 2023
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 21 July 2023 Following last week's widely anticipated news that RBA Governor Philip Lowe would be replaced by Michele Bullock, the flurry of media coverage has died down as it quickly became apparent that the governor's baton would pass pretty seamlessly. Dr. Bullock has worked with or alongside her predecessor for close to 40 years, including most recently as his deputy. One would assume their thoughts and opinions on the economy, inflation, and the bank's role in fulfilling its task are or have been pretty similar. In spite of all the criticism leveled at Lowe for his now famous "slip" of making a forecast on future interest rates, he was more committed to a less aggressive hiking regime than his overseas counterparts when achieving his "narrow path" objective, as opposed to Jerome Powell's "whatever it takes" approach in the US. If anything, Bullock's speech in late June, focusing on the RBA's other mandate, that of maintaining full employment, suggested she might take a more aggressive approach if needed, but which we doubt will be necessary. This week's surprisingly strong May employment numbers, which added 33,000 people to the workforce, and saw unemployment remain at an almost unprecedented level of 3.5%, and 64.5% of the population employed, led various economists to revise their expectations and suggest another rate rise in August. Next week's CPI numbers, (due on Wednesday), Labour Force (Thursday), and June PPI, along with June Retail Trade, (both due on Friday), should hopefully clarify their arguments one way or another. Inflation appears to be easing in the US, with June's number of just 3% the lowest since March 2001, while even in the UK inflation has shown signs of abating, albeit from higher levels. Lowe has only two more RBA board meetings to chair, and he'd love to leave Martin Place with rates paused, and his narrow path maintained, prior to handing over to Bullock to complete the task he started. Not that there aren't still inflationary risks over and above the strong labour market. Russia's renewed ban on Ukranian grain exports, and the effects on food prices of the record heat across much of the northern hemisphere, are yet to play out. (If there's one ironic outcome of this week's record temperature of 45C + degrees in Spain, while in England it struggled to reach 21C, it must be the reverse migration of thousands of Brits fleeing the Spanish heat, to bask in the cool and damp of a typical English summer!) Of course, they may not be quite so happy if the rain spreads north to Manchester, and saves the Australian cricket team from a serious baz-balling defeat. While on the subject of sport, congratulations and good luck to the Matildas, as the women's game has raised awareness of and interest in, the game of soccer (sorry "football") in a way that the men's equivalent has ever managed to achieve. And while off on a tangent, yesterday marked the 54th anniversary of Neil Armstrong's historic landing on the moon and his now famous "one giant leap for mankind" quote. Some of you/us can remember the day clearly, while for many it's ancient history. That's life! News & Insights Investing Essentials: Active vs passive | Bennelong Funds Management Why railroads are an attractive investment and how PSR is helping | Magellan Asset Management June 2023 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
14 Jul 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 14 July 2023
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 14 July 2023 Have We Reached the Tipping Point of Inflation? As widely predicted by all and sundry, and frequently hinted by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, RBA Governor Philip Lowe's seven year tenure will end in September, to be replaced by current Deputy Governor, Michele Bullock. While there's a change at the top, and about to be widespread changes to the bank's board structure and decision making, the appointment provides continuity of the outgoing Governor's thought processes - assuming there was cohesion and agreement between the two over the past couple of years. We'd expect that to be the case. Both are longstanding RBA employees, Bullock with 38 years under her belt, whilst Lowe has 43. Jim Chalmers noted that the incoming Governor will provide a "fresh perspective", but we doubt it will cause major underlying changes to the overall approach, or the bank's actions when it comes to interest rates. Lowe has taken all the heat from the rate rises that the RBA has announced over the past 15 months, and of course for his earlier comments that rates wouldn't rise from an unprecedented 0.1% until 2024. Those earlier comments have been used by all and sundry, plus Chalmers and Albanese, to point the blame at Lowe for the fact that global inflation has caused rates to rise across the western world. The fact is that Australia's inflation rate is less than the UK's, on a par with the Eurozone, and until this week's surprise number, the US as well. Australia's cash rate at 4.1% is less than both the UK and the US, both at 5.0%. The government has been happy for Lowe to be blamed, having done nothing to help. In fact, they did the opposite by supporting wages rises that are yet to flow through the system. They've done nothing to try to control the inflationary impact of higher energy costs in a country where exports account for 70% of thermal coal production, and 82% of our gas. According to the Australia Institute as of 2020, only 1% of the gas produced in Australia is used in Australian manufacturing, less than 10% of the amount the LNG export industry uses itself. Twice as much gas is used just running gas export terminals as is used by Australian households. Whilst we're proud capitalists, and not fans of government control, one would have thought Canberra (on both sides of politics) might have stepped in somewhere or somehow along the line. For Bullock, the timing couldn't be better, and in our humble opinion she's a good choice. She's perfectly qualified, full of appropriate experience, and after 38 years, understands the bank. She comes in at a time of change, but will presumably maintain the current course. And for Chalmers, it allows the blame for mortgage pain to be laid squarely at the feet of Philip Lowe, just as it looks as if he might have achieved his "narrow path" balancing high inflation, low growth, and close to full employment. Just in time US inflation numbers have peaked, with this week's annual figure at 3%, down from 9.1% a year ago. With the delayed effects of the 13 rate rises to date working their way through the system, we may, or may not, see a (mild) recession by the end of the year. If we avoid one, we'll no doubt hear all about it from Dr. Chalmers, but how much credit he'll give to Philip Lowe is less certain. The CPI numbers due on 26th July will be critical. News & Insights Global Matters: The importance of emerging markets to the infrastructure opportunity | 4D Infrastructure Market Update June | Australian Secure Capital Fund June 2023 Performance News Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Emit Capital Climate Finance Equity Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
7 Jul 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 07 July 2023
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 07 July 2023 A New Financial Year - Same Old Inflation Story "Poor old Philip Lowe" - as described this week by the opposition finance spokeswoman, Senator Jane Hume - and we agree! Philip Lowe is a convenient scapegoat for inflation, and if or when it occurs, for a recession, and the government is happy for that to be the case, even as the RBA hit the pause button this week. The reality is that Lowe's got both hands tied behind his back, and only has monetary policy to "head" off inflation, just like his counterparts at the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve, who are facing much the same challenge. Except they're not about to lose their jobs! Chalmers and Albanese have promised to announce later this month if Lowe's tenure is up in September, and if not, who will replace him. Their failure to back him as incumbent suggests two things: Firstly, he won't get the job, and secondly, that works well for them, as it avoids the government's responsibility for doing anything (or should that be nothing) to fight inflation. So while government ministers and panels of economists are happy to take pot-shots at Lowe and the RBA, they can change their mins, and forecasts on a month to month basis. We'd love to analyse their past forecasting track records going back a few years. How many of them would have agreed with Philip Lowe in 2020 (mid COVID) and 2021 (pre Ukraine), given the then prevailing circumstances, that interest rates were unlikely to rise until 2024? As for how slowly it's taking the RBA's 13 rate rises to date, totaling over 4%, to slow the economy, and thus tame inflation, part of the reason can be seen in the chart below, which shows the actual increase across all mortgages of less than 2% after adjusting for those on fixed terms. Australians preference for variable rates is greater than home owners overseas, with the US number showing why the US economy and employment is so resilient. According to the 2021 census only 35% of Australian homes are owned with a mortgage, and 31% are owned outright, and 30% rented. Of those with a mortgage, only a small proportion will have "maxed out" their borrowing limit in the past few years. Add to that, research from PEXA shows that over 25% of houses bought in 2022 in NSW, Victoria, and Queensland were bought for cash. So while mortgage stress (and now rental stress) are daily news fodder, higher interest rates aren't biting too hard in the majority of households. What will slow consumer discretionary spending will be a combination of inflation itself (particularly for those affected by interest rates), and consumer sentiment and confidence. And while the R word is not yet a reality, and unemployment remains at historically low levels, that's not really happening. |
|
|
News & Insights Banks, interest rates and opportunities in the finance sector | Magellan Asset Management AI Revolution | Insync Fund Managers 10k Words | June Edition | Equitable Investors |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
30 Jun 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 30 June 2023
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 30 June 2023 CPI and Retail Sales Numbers throw doubt on Tuesday's RBA decision May's CPI and Retail Sales numbers released by the ABS this week gave economists reason to reconsider where inflation really sits. However, looking through headlines to the details, the question remains: Will the numbers be sufficient to convince the RBA to hit the "pause" button next Tuesday? Even if they do hold off, it's likely to only be temporary, and in the longer term, there's little chance there'll be any meaningful relief for stressed mortgage holders for at least another year, and possibly two. Taking a look at the Monthly CPI results first, which seasonally adjusted at 5.6% for the 12 months to May, and down from 6.8% in April, were, on the face of it, a cause for optimism. Stripping out volatile items (fruit and vegetables, fuel, holiday travel, and accommodation) the number was less encouraging at 6.4%, but still a marginal improvement on April's rise of 6.5%. Annual Trimmed Mean inflation (i.e. stripping out the extremes) was 6.1%, also down from April's figure of 6.7%. The first issue is fuel, which was the only negative number, falling 8% for the month, but as anyone who owns a motor vehicle (or at least pays at the bowser) would know, IS volatile, having risen 9.5% in the 12 months to April, and fallen 8.2% in the 12 months to March. Of the items which significantly offset fuel's negative number, the largest increases were in every day (and therefore largely unavoidable) items, such as Bread and Cereals (+12.8%), Dairy (+15%), Food Products (11.5%), and Electricity (+14.1%), and all of which had been elevated at or around those levels for April and March. Leaving aside the question of whether suppliers and retailers of these categories are taking advantage because A) they're staples and therefore largely unavoidable purchases, or B) they can lay the blame for price rise on their suppliers or the overall consumer expectation of inflation, are the above numbers in part responsible (in conjunction with mortgage and housing) for consumer confidence and financial concerns as a whole? Hedge Clippings rather selfishly notes that Alcohol is running below the inflationary average at 5.0%, down somewhat from the April and March numbers, but let's not go there. Against this, Retail turnover (as reported by the ABS) for May rose 0.7%, following a flat result in April, and a rise of 0.4% in March, supported by a rise in spending on food and eating out, combined with a boost in spending on discretionary goods, as consumers took advantage of larger than usual promotional activity and sales in May, along with Mother's Day. As the ABS noted, "Food retailing has recorded a monthly rise for 16 or the last 18 months," and continued by saying that "most of the growth in food-related spending this year has been driven by rising prices." Back to Tuesday's meeting and decision, the RBA will obviously be looking behind the headline numbers that the average consumer recalls, particularly the ongoing strength in the employment statistics, and the National Wage Case Decision increasing the minimum wage by 5.75% handed down in June, but yet to impact the numbers. As we noted at the outset, will the seasonally adjusted result of 5.6%, down from 6.8% be enough for the pause button to be pressed? Even if it is, we would expect it is far too early to budget for any reduction. As much as the RBA is expecting inflation to improve in 2024/2025, there's no way they will risk letting persist at current levels (or worse) by acting too soon. That's assuming they can get the inflation genie back in the bottle by then, without triggering a recession. While everyone is aware of inflation, and few can avoid it, it is evident that it is only impacting the shopping habits of certain (although increasing) consumer demographics. Unfortunately, interest rates are the bluntest of instruments (and the only one) in the RBA's tool kit. This week we held the last of our regular Webinars, with our COO Damen Purcell interviewing three guest fund managers, namely Matthew Langsford from Terra Capital, Dan Porter, from Pure Asset Management, and David Franklyn, from Argonaut Resources who discussed their approach to the opportunities and risks in the Resources Sector. Click here to view a recording (45 minutes) of the Webinar, and here to view each of the Fund's Profiles on www.fundmonitors.com. |
|
|
News & Insights Risk-adjusting small-cap upside | PURE Asset Management Investment Perspectives: Do developers offer the best exposure to a recovering residential property | Quay Global Investors May 2023 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
23 Jun 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 23 June 2023
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 23 June 2023 Rate Rises and Inflation - what else? The RBA started the tightening process just over 12 months ago in an effort to firstly contain, and then to subdue inflation. The timing was broadly in step with central banks in the UK and Europe as inflation was global. Given they're still increasing rates, or threatening to, and consumers seem reluctant to respond, one has to ask how successful they've been - or possibly how much worse inflation would be if central banks had sat on their collective hands? This week in his twice yearly appearance before politicians trying to make a point, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it was a "pretty good guess" that US rates would increase twice more this year as he tries to subdue inflation back to the 2% level while avoiding higher unemployment, and thus a recession. In the UK, the Bank of England is facing the same issue, increasing rates by a further 0.5%, stating "The economy is doing better than expected, but inflation is still too high (8.7%) and we've got to deal with it." Unfortunately, "dealing with it" involves inflicting pain on consumers, as pointed out by RBA deputy Governor Michelle Bullock in her speech this week, giving Philip Lowe a break from the firing line. In spite of widespread anecdotal evidence of consumer pain being reflected by retail sales, particularly for big ticket and electrical goods, strong employment statistics, not only in Australia but also in the US and UK, are spoiling the objective of higher rates. Bullock pointed out there needs to be a balance. With the RBA's current forecast of inflation returning to target (2-3%) by mid 2025, and unemployment increasing to 4.5% by the end of 2024, which they estimate still equates to "full employment," they judge that the balance between supply and demand will be achieved. As Philip Lowe frequently points out, that balance can also be described as a "narrow path" between inflation, higher rates, and recession. Meanwhile, equity markets continue to confound and confuse. The ASX All Ordinaries has risen 10.5% in the 12 months since 23rd of June, 2022. Wind the start date for that 12 month period back to 31st of May, and that 12 month performance becomes negative. Stock and sector selection, plus of course timing, has been key. On Tuesday next week, we are holding a further Sector Review, this time focusing on the resource sector. Register here for our manager round table webinar, where we will be joined by three Australian specialist resource managers to get their views on the opportunities and risks for the sector. |
|
|
News & Insights Chat GPT and the implications of this new technology | Magellan Asset Management Market Update - May | Australian Secure Capital Fund May 2023 Performance News 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Emit Capital Climate Finance Equity Fund Bennelong Australian Equities Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
16 Jun 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 16 June 2023
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 16 June 2023 Inflation: No Pain, No Gain. Paul Keating will long be remembered for his "recession we had to have" comment, made way back in 1990. The self-styled "World's Greatest Treasurer" embraced the attention the comment gave him at the time, and has frequently dined out on it ever since. 33 years later we're back to facing another recession - with a number of leading business figures this week putting the chances at 50:50. Anecdotal evidence indicates that sections of the economy, and/or the community, are closer than others (if not there already), but meanwhile we're still treading the "narrow path" that Philip Lowe is trying to take the economy down, inflicting economic pain to achieve an inflationary gain. The causes - and hopefully the effects - of the 1990's recession and today's recession - or should that be tomorrow's - are quite different, although there are some parallels. The excesses of the '80's led to the crash of '87, which flowed to Australia, as did high inflation. By 1992 unemployment was 11 per cent, and mortgage rates topped 17%. This time around, we're still hostage to global tides and currents, and as such the economic after-effects of the GFC, QE, COVID, and Ukraine, but we are thankfully a long way from approaching the levels of 1992. Where Keating was keen to deflect responsibility (nothing's changed!) even to the extent of implying he should be given the credit, this time around all the criticism has been directed at Philip Lowe thanks to his forward guidance in March 2020 that rates, then at an unprecedented level of 0.1%, would remain there for an "extended period". In November of that year, in an attempt to stimulate an economy he's now trying to cool, he defined that period as "at least three years". In February 2021, he made his now famous prediction that the RBA's expectation was that rates would "not increase until 2024 at the earliest". While all the finger pointing is going on, and with the benefit of hindsight, let's remember the timeline: In March 2020, when Lowe's forward guidance mentioned an "extended period" of low rates, COVID-19 had just emerged. Later that month the government declared a state of emergency, 14 day quarantines, and a national lockdown. In NSW, indoor and outdoor gatherings were limited to two people. In July 2020, Victoria commenced a 16 week lockdown. Consequently in the June quarter of 2020, GDP fell 6.7%, then rebounded in the following four quarters, before falling 2.1% in September 2021. The RBA's targeted inflation band was (and remains) 2-3%. In December 2020 inflation came in at just 0.09%, resulting in the RBA's February 2021 guidance that "the Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3% target range". At that stage inflation had not been above 2% for more than one quarter since September 2014, and by June 2020 it had dipped -0.3%. Lowe and the RBA Board undoubtedly misjudged the post COVID rebound, and can be excused for not foreseeing Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, but two things emerge: Firstly, for the previous six or seven years they had been battling LOW inflation, and particularly given COVID, they were keen, or possibly desperate, to stimulate the economy. Secondly, fellow central bankers around the world made the same mistakes. However, Lowe is on the outer, particularly with Chalmers, who unlike Keating in 1990, is looking for a scapegoat. So where to now? Earlier this week the Federal Reserve held US rates steady for the first time in a year, despite projecting that inflation will persist, leaving their options open to move rates higher going forward. In Australia, May's unemployment level fell back to 3.6%, contradicting the weak March GDP number of 0.2%, the weakest result since September 2021.  By that time Australia's economic journey down the "narrow path" will have been confirmed, along with Philip Lowe's walk down a wooden plank. |
|
|
News & Insights Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management Quay podcast: The surprising trends emerging in real estate | Quay Global Investors May 2023 Performance News |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
9 Jun 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 09 June 2023
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 09 June 2023 As previously suggested, it looks like inflation, and thus higher rates, are going to be more persistent, even if RBA Governor Philip Lowe suggested this week that it has "passed its peak". Having made that statement, he then went on to say that: ''Recent data indicate that upside risks to the inflation outlook have increased," which made it sound like he is having two-bob-each-way on the outcome. And who can blame him (apart from the Treasurer) as he increased rates by 0.25% yet again, given the issues he outlined in the statement released following the RBA's meeting on Tuesday? Against the background of a tight labour market, wages growth - not helped by an increase in award wages - is expected to pick up. Meanwhile, while there's been no improvement in labour productivity, resulting in a worrying increase in unit labour costs. Lowe's path to a soft landing - or in other words slowing the economy whilst avoiding a recession, is looking increasingly difficult to achieve with the latest GDP for Q1 just 0.2%, down from 0.6% in Q's 3 and 4, 2022. In the US a recession followed the last five instances when inflation peaked above 5%, in 1970, 1974, 1980, 1990, and 2008. Indeed, the US economy recorded two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2022, technically qualifying as a recession, before recording a growth of 3.2% in Q3, 2.4% in Q4, and 1.3% in Q1, 2023. Covid aside, the last recession in Australia was in 1990/91. With the median age in Australia currently just over 38, a large proportion of the population has never experienced a recession, which is maybe why the threat of an impending one is not yet biting into consumer spending. While the media is currently full of anecdotal evidence of economic hardship and mortgage/rental stress, this is unevenly spread across the population. A report from PEXA released this week shows that over 25% of all property purchases in Australia's eastern states were funded without a mortgage in 2022. Inflation is real, but the RBA's efforts to curb it are only changing the spending habits of a minority, and generally those with less or limited discretionary spending capacity. Mortgage rates are only high by historical standards, magnified by the size of loans taken out to afford sharply higher property prices. In 2021, 35% of households had a mortgage, while 32% did not, and 28.4% were renters from private or other landlords. All the focus is on mortgage repayments and mortgage stress, and only more recently rental stress, resulting in interest rates (and to a degree inflation) not impacting a significant portion of the population. For the RBA this creates an issue, as the "enemy" - inflation - comes from all and many quarters, only some of which are homegrown or under domestic control. If Philip Lowe's rate increases to date have had limited effect on consumer spending and demand, then there's no doubt that "some further tightening of monetary policy may be required" along with an increased risk of recession. However with multiple inputs, and only interest rates as a tool, the RBA's "narrow path" is looking narrower - and decidedly slippery. |
|
|
News & Insights Meta Platforms - AI Winner | Insync Fund Managers ESG Policy: The real-world impacts | Magellan Asset Management April 2023 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
