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22 Dec 2022 - Performance Report: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund
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Fund Overview | The Fund is an open ended, unlisted unit trust investing predominantly in ASX listed companies. Hybrid, debt & unlisted investments are also considered. The Fund is focused on investing in growing or strategic businesses and generating returns that, to the extent possible, are less dependent on the direction of the broader sharemarket. The Fund may at times change its cash weighting or utilise exchange traded products to manage market risk. Investments will primarily be made in micro-to-mid cap companies listed on the ASX. Larger listed businesses will also be considered for investment but are not expected to meet the manager's investment criteria as regularly as smaller peers. |
Manager Comments | Equitable Investors noted the workload in 2022 included driving existing investments to ensure they have capital and appropriate cost structures, pushing for organisational changes, and corporate or strategic transactions - as well as sorting out which capital-needy companies are real opportunities under Equitable's 'Recap' theme. They remain fully committed and continue to look at ways to work harder and smarter to achieve the returns they seek in time. Equitable expect to continue to keep their noses to the grindstone in early CY2023 as they position the Fund to capitalise on the opportunities a torrid 2022 has created. They added that their 'FIT' universe of micro-to-midcap industrials is down a third in 2022 and there is currently a huge spread in median earnings multiples between small and large stocks. |
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22 Dec 2022 - Performance Report: Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class)
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Fund Overview | The Fund offers a choice of three investment classes, each of which adopts a different investment strategy: - The Digital Opportunities Class identifies and trades low risk arbitrage opportunities between different exchanges and a number of digital assets; - The Digital Index Class tracks the performance of a basket of digital assets; - The Bitcoin Index Class tracks the performance of Bitcoin. Digital Opportunities Class: This class appeals to investors seeking an active exposure to the digital asset markets with no directional bias. The Digital Opportunities Class employs a high frequency inspired Market Neutral strategy trading 24/7 which uses a systematic approach designed to offer uncorrelated returns to the underlying highly volatile cryptocurrency markets. The strategy systematically exploits low-risk arbitrage opportunities across the most liquid and active digital asset markets on the most respected exchanges. When appropriate the Fund may obtain leverage, including through borrowing cash, securities and other instruments, and entering into derivative transactions and repurchase agreements. DAFM has a currency hedging policy in place for the Units in the Fund. Units in the Fund will be hedged against exposure to assets denominated in US dollars through a trading account with spot, forwards and options as directed by DAFM. |
Manager Comments | The Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) has a track record of 1 year and 7 months and therefore comparison over all market conditions and against its peers is limited. However, the fund has outperformed the S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Market benchmark since inception in May 2021, providing investors with an annualised return of 32.49% compared with the benchmark's return of -49.25% over the same period. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -1.96% vs the index's -64.92%, and since inception in May 2021 the fund's largest drawdown was -1.96% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -71.98%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in November 2022 and has so far lasted , reaching its lowest point during November 2022. During this period, the index's maximum drawdown was -71.61%. The Manager has delivered these returns with 50.39% less volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio for performance over the past 12 months of 1.02 and for performance since inception of 1.38. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 100% of the time in rising markets and 91% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 5% and a down-capture ratio of -43%. |
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22 Dec 2022 - Performance Report: Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund
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Fund Overview | There is a slight bias to large cap stocks on the long side of the portfolio, although in a rising market the portfolio will tend to hold smaller caps, including resource stocks, more frequently. On the short side, the portfolio is particularly concentrated, with stock selection limited by both liquidity and the difficulty of borrowing stock in smaller cap companies. Short positions are only taken when there is a high conviction view on the specific stock. The Fund uses derivatives in a limited way, mainly selling short dated covered call options to generate additional income. These typically have less than 30 days to expiry, and are usually 5% to 10% out of the money. ASX SPI futures and index put options can be used to hedge the portfolio's overall net position. The Fund's discretionary investment strategy commences with a macro view of the economy and direction to establish the portfolio's desired market exposure. Following this detailed sector and company research is gathered from knowledge of the individual stocks in the Fund's universe, with widespread use of broker research. Company visits, presentations and discussions with management at CEO and CFO level are used wherever possible to assess management quality across a range of criteria. |
Manager Comments | The Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund has a track record of 16 years and 7 months and has outperformed the ASX 200 Total Return benchmark since inception in May 2006, providing investors with an annualised return of 7.89% compared with the benchmark's return of 6.44% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has experienced a negative annual return on 2 occasions in the 16 years and 7 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -10.52% vs the index's -11.9%, and since inception in May 2006 the fund's largest drawdown was -11.71% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -47.19%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in June 2018 and lasted 2 years and 6 months, reaching its lowest point during December 2018. The fund had completely recovered its losses by December 2020. During this period, the index's maximum drawdown was -26.75%. The Manager has delivered these returns with 6.76% less volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 five times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.67 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 87% of the time in rising markets and 33% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 14% and a down-capture ratio of 53%. |
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22 Dec 2022 - Investment Perspectives: The yield curve, recessions and soft landings
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22 Dec 2022 - Why the cloud investment opportunity will outlast an economic downturn
Why the cloud investment opportunity will outlast an economic downturn Magellan Asset Management November 2022 |
The global shift to cloud computing is a seismic and transformational trend that we have backed for several years at Magellan. For the hyperscale public cloud vendors outside China - Amazon, Microsoft, and Google (the Magellan Global Fund holds all three companies) - it has created unprecedented market opportunity. These vendors have consistently generated strong double-digit revenue growth at scale and continue to do so to this day. Yet in the most recent two financial quarters, hyperscale cloud revenue has faced decelerating growth as enterprise customers reign in spend amid the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Has the story come to an end?
The trend this year is apparent. Excluding the impact of currency movements, hyperscale cloud revenue grew in aggregate 42% year-over-year in Q1. In Q2, the growth rate fell to 38%, and in the most recent Q3, the growth fell further to 34%. The two largest vendors, Amazon and Microsoft, expect this deceleration to continue, which means we should expect the growth rate to decline even more in Q4. On top of that, margins are falling, with both companies dealing with rising energy costs in their data centres while continuing to maintain their pace of double-digit operating expense growth. All of this may seem dire but let us unpack it further. We start by recognising that the deceleration this year appears more severe because it is being compared to several quarters of strong growth in 2021 due to cloud demand created by the pandemic responses. To try to adjust for this by looking at this year's quarterly growth rates on a 2-year annualised basis, we see a steadier growth trend, albeit one that is still slowing - from 40% in Q1, to 39% in Q2, to 38% in Q3. (The fact that we are seeing this type of growth on an aggregate US$160 billion in annualised revenue is staggering on its own). These decreases are more marginal and subject to noise, but there is broader evidence that IT spend is generally tightening. The unfavourability of these recent IT spending trends are, we believe, cyclical not structural. Market uncertainty has compelled enterprise customers to become more prudent or selective about their IT investments. Some customers are in industries facing challenges of their own such as supply chain issues, inflation, or labour shortages. We also expect some spend was driven by the period of excessive cheap, available money and this spend will not return. And as their customers seek to tighten their belts, hyperscale cloud vendors are taking it a step further and in fact helping customers to improve the efficiency of their spend (e.g., through lower priced options). In other words, the cloud vendors are effectively contributing to their own growth headwinds. Why do this? It is about driving trusted partnerships with customers for long term growth, rather than short-sightedly focusing on maximising growth today. This makes sense if one believes, as we do, that cloud has a significant multi-year growth runway ahead. In fact, the ability for customers to proactively dial up and down cloud spend according to their needs - rather than being burdened with the large, fixed costs of an on-premises data centre when times are tough - is one of the fundamental value propositions of the cloud, and the current environment reinforces this validity. Put another way, hyperscale cloud is doing exactly what it was meant to do. The effect of rising energy costs on the hyperscale cloud vendors has been negative but comparably modest so far. Amazon cited a 200bps impact to AWS margins in aggregate over two years, and for Microsoft we expect an impact of less than 100bps to its cloud margins this financial year, unless costs rise significantly higher. The cloud vendors are absorbing these higher costs in the near term, but we believe they possess the pricing power to share rising costs with customers over the longer term. An underappreciated point is that the energy efficiency of hyperscale data centres is far superior to what customers can achieve on their own, which is further demonstrating to these customers the advantages of being in the cloud. Cloud computing is proving its value to customers as much in this environment as it ever has, and we can see this when we delve beyond the quarterly headlines. It is why we continue to view this investment opportunity as compelling on the longer time horizon. It is an attractive, enduring, and multi-year opportunity that will deliver robust growth and attractive margins on the other side of the economic cycle we find ourselves in today. Author: Adrian Lu, Investment Analyst Sources: Company filings and Magellan estimates |
Funds operated by this manager: Magellan Global Fund (Hedged), Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC, Magellan High Conviction Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged), MFG Core Infrastructure Fund Important Information: This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 ('Magellan') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should read and consider any relevant offer documentation applicable to any investment product or service and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making any investment decision. A copy of the relevant PDS relating to a Magellan financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4888 or by visiting www.magellangroup.com.au. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any strategy, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to be implemented and its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of a Magellan financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Magellan makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Magellan. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. Any trademarks, logos, and service marks contained herein may be the registered and unregistered trademarks of their respective owners. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Magellan. |
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21 Dec 2022 - Performance Report: Insync Global Quality Equity Fund
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Fund Overview | Insync invests in a concentrated portfolio of high quality companies that possess long 'runways' of future growth benefitting from Megatrends. Megatrends are multiyear structural and disruptive changes that transform the way we live our daily lives and result from a convergence of different underlying trends including innovation, politics, demographics, social attitudes and lifestyles. They provide important tailwinds to individual stocks and sectors, that reside within them. Insync believe this delivers exponential earnings growth ahead of market expectations. Insync screens the universe of 40,000 listed global companies to just 150 that it views as superior. This includes profitability, balance sheet performance, shareholder focus and valuations. 20-40 companies are then chosen for the portfolio. These reflect the best outcomes from further analysis using a proprietary DCF valuation, implied growth modelling, and free cash flow yield; alongside management, competitor, and industry scrutiny. The Fund may hold some cash (maximum of 5%), derivatives, currency contracts for hedging purposes, and American and/or Global Depository Receipts. It is however, for all intents and purposes, a 'long-only' fund, remaining fully invested irrespective of market cycles. |
Manager Comments | The Insync Global Quality Equity Fund has a track record of 13 years and 2 months and has outperformed the Global Equity benchmark since inception in October 2009, providing investors with an annualised return of 11.8% compared with the benchmark's return of 10.68% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has only experienced a negative annual return once in the 13 years and 2 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -28.54% vs the index's -15.77%, and since inception in October 2009 the fund's largest drawdown was -28.54% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -15.77%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in January 2022 and has so far lasted 10 months, reaching its lowest point during September 2022. The Manager has delivered these returns with 1.6% more volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 five times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.82 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 82% of the time in rising markets and 19% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 86% and a down-capture ratio of 89%. |
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21 Dec 2022 - Performance Report: Glenmore Australian Equities Fund
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Fund Overview | The main driver of identifying potential investments will be bottom up company analysis, however macro-economic conditions will be considered as part of the investment thesis for each stock. |
Manager Comments | The Glenmore Australian Equities Fund has a track record of 5 years and 6 months and has outperformed the ASX 200 Total Return benchmark since inception in June 2017, providing investors with an annualised return of 21.78% compared with the benchmark's return of 8.69% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund hasn't experienced any negative annual returns in the 5 years and 6 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -16.18% vs the index's -11.9%, and since inception in June 2017 the fund's largest drawdown was -36.91% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -26.75%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in October 2019 and lasted 1 year and 1 month, reaching its lowest point during March 2020. The fund had completely recovered its losses by November 2020. The Manager has delivered these returns with 7.16% more volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 four times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.96 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 91% of the time in rising markets and 36% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 233% and a down-capture ratio of 104%. |
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21 Dec 2022 - Performance Report: Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund
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Fund Overview | In a typical environment the Fund will hold around 70 stocks comprising 35 pairs. Each pair contains one long and one short position each of which will have been thoroughly researched and are selected from the same market sector. Whilst in an ideal environment each stock's position will make a positive return, it is the relative performance of the pair that is important. As a result the Fund can make positive returns when each stock moves in the same direction provided the long position outperforms the short one in relative terms. However, if neither side of the trade is profitable, strict controls are required to ensure losses are limited. The Fund uses no derivatives and has no currency exposure. The Fund has no hard stop loss limits, instead relying on the small average position size per stock (1.5%) and per pair (3%) to limit exposure. Where practical pairs are always held within the same sector to limit cross sector risk, and positions can be held for months or years. The Bennelong Market Neutral Fund, with same strategy and liquidity is available for retail investors as a Listed Investment Company (LIC) on the ASX. |
Manager Comments | The Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund has a track record of 20 years and 10 months and has outperformed the ASX 200 Total Return benchmark since inception in February 2002, providing investors with an annualised return of 12.66% compared with the benchmark's return of 8.14% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has experienced a negative annual return on 3 occasions in the 20 years and 10 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -19.13% vs the index's -11.9%, and since inception in February 2002 the fund's largest drawdown was -30.59% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -47.19%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in September 2020 and has so far lasted 2 years and 2 months, reaching its lowest point during June 2022. During this period, the index's maximum drawdown was -15.05%. The Manager has delivered these returns with 0.5% less volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 five times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.74 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 65% of the time in rising markets and 59% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 4% and a down-capture ratio of -113%. |
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21 Dec 2022 - RBA likely to move to quarterly tightening in 2023
RBA likely to move to quarterly tightening in 2023 Pendal December 2022 |
THIS week's 25-point rate rise probably won't be the last — but the Reserve Bank's pace of tightening is likely to move from monthly to quarterly increments next year. The cash rate will now sit at 3.1% for the summer. The RBA's next monetary policy statement is due on February 10. Between now and then we will see fourth quarter inflation data released on January 25. It will be high. The annual headline inflation rate will be around 8% for 2022. This will set the case for another hike in February. Tuesday's RBA statement contained nothing new. The central bank remains data dependent while the global outlook has deteriorated. Domestically the labour market remains tight. Economic growth has been strong and household spending will start to slow due to policy tightening delivered so far. For some this is yet to occur, given the higher-than-usual number of fixed-rate mortgages that are yet to reset. This is the reason why the RBA doesn't need to be as aggressive. Fixed-rate mortgages at rates around 2% will be resetting closer to 5.5% mid next year. The RBA acknowledges they are walking a tight rope. "The path to achieving the needed decline in inflation and achieving a soft landing for the economy remains a narrow one." The further they push policy, the harder the landing becomes. The RBA doesn't want to cause a recession. But given a choice of embedded higher-inflation expectations or better growth, the former wins out for any central banker. The longer-term task is no simpler. Policy action to date "has been necessary to ensure that the current period of high inflation is only temporary", the RBA statement said. "High inflation damages our economy and makes life more difficult for people." In a speech late last month RBA governor Phil Lowe pointed out that variability in inflation outcomes was more likely to increase than what we've become accustomed to. He cited four key areas where supply issues in the longer term will occur:
The RBA has under-shot or over-shot its 2-3% target band more often than not over the past 15 years. More variability in inflation outcomes? Who would want to be a central banker. Central banks have tightened policy significantly over 2022 — and that will weigh on demand over 2023. The current Christmas spendathon — where we are let loose for the first Christmas in three years — will hold activity up for now. But it's unlikely continue into the new year hangover. The supply side of the global economy is also likely to see capacity increase and downward inflationary pressure next year. The supply issues that have resulted from the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine will resolve over time. But with it comes another set of challenges. And those are more likely to be skewed towards higher inflationary pressure in the longer term. Author: Steve Campbell, Head of Cash Strategies |
Funds operated by this manager: Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund, Pendal Global Select Fund - Class R, Pendal Horizon Sustainable Australian Share Fund, Pendal MicroCap Opportunities Fund, Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Class R, Regnan Global Equity Impact Solutions Fund - Class R, Regnan Credit Impact Trust Fund |
This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at December 8, 2021. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund (Fund) ARSN: 623 987 968. A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient's personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com |
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20 Dec 2022 - Performance Report: Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund
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Manager Comments | The Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund has a track record of 13 years and 1 month and has outperformed the ASX 200 Total Return benchmark since inception in November 2009, providing investors with an annualised return of 9.64% compared with the benchmark's return of 7.99% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has experienced a negative annual return on 2 occasions in the 13 years and 1 month since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -21.5% vs the index's -11.9%, and since inception in November 2009 the fund's largest drawdown was -26.09% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -26.75%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in February 2020 and lasted 9 months, reaching its lowest point during March 2020. The fund had completely recovered its losses by November 2020. The Manager has delivered these returns with 0.61% more volatility than the benchmark, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 five times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.58 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 94% of the time in rising markets and 7% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 114% and a down-capture ratio of 99%. |
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