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How green hydrogen will impact natural gas investors Pendal October 2022 |
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REPLACING natural gas with "green hydrogen" is often touted as a way to solve "stranded asset" risk for fossil fuel assets such as gas pipelines. The International Energy Agency believes hydrogen has the "potential to play a key role in a clean, secure and affordable energy future". As part of a renewable energy transition, some natural gas pipeline and storage infrastructure could be repurposed for hydrogen. The clean fuel could even be blended into natural gas. But is it really a solution for investors worried about holding "stranded" fossil fuel assets that no longer have an economic use due to redundant technology or high costs? There is no clear-cut answer right now - and advances are required to make hydrogen technology economical, says Murray Ackman, a credit ESG analyst in Pendal's Income and Fixed Interest team. Stranded asset risk"Stranded asset risk is very tangible for fixed income investors when you're looking at a seven- or 10-year bond," says Ackman. "You have to take a view on what may or may not happen during that time frame. "Credit ratings, access to financing, cost of funding, demand for the products, regulation - those are the kind of ESG risks that we're looking at." Some risks are clear cut: "Coal is something that needs to be phased out very quickly, so if you're coal or coal-adjacent like a train company that hauls coal from the mines, there is a clear stranded-asset risk in the short term. "The cost of funding might become higher and there could be a chance of default or ratings downgrades." But the risks to natural gas assets - and the potential for hydrogen to be a solution - are more difficult to pin down. A natural gas replacementPart of the problem is conflating potential industrial and domestic uses for hydrogen. "There are some very clear uses for hydrogen as a replacement for natural gas in industrial processes like producing fertiliser, powering heavy vehicles and aircraft or making steel," says Ackman. "And there's this moon shot that it will be a one-for-one replacement for natural gas," says Ackman. In that scenario, parts of the natural gas pipeline and storage infrastructure can be repurposed for hydrogen, protecting their value well into the future and saving them from becoming stranded assets. "This is what industry is betting big on. It's tricky because the economics don't stack up yet - but then that was true for solar panels for a long time too." For households, the benefits of hydrogen are less clear cut. Hydrogen can be blended into the natural gas but above about 10 or 20 per cent it can damage some existing pipes. "And if you go any higher 20 per cent, you need to change household appliances anyway - if you're changing your stove to something that can accept hydrogen, why not just change to electricity?" The weighing of these different views is an important part of the investment process, says Ackman. "It's very much a question mark whether it is the solution. In our investable universe, we've got some gas distribution networks. "The question is 'why are you talking about how good hydrogen is?' "Is it because you really believe it? Or is it because it's an existential threat and without it you have a potentially stranded asset in the future?" Author: Murray Ackman, Credit ESG analyst |
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Funds operated by this manager: Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund, Pendal Global Select Fund - Class R, Pendal Horizon Sustainable Australian Share Fund, Pendal MicroCap Opportunities Fund, Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Class R, Regnan Global Equity Impact Solutions Fund - Class R, Regnan Credit Impact Trust Fund |
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This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at December 8, 2021. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund (Fund) ARSN: 623 987 968. A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient's personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com |
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Collins St Convertible Notes Webinar Recording - New Investment Opportunity & Fund Update Collins St Asset Management Oct 2022 |
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The Co-Founders of Collins St Asset Management, Michael Goldberg and Vasilios Piperoglou, alongside Head of Distribution & Investor Relations, Rob Hay, hosted an interactive webinar where they announced - Announce the details of the October and November capital raisings and the way in which both existing and prospective clients can invest into the Fund. - Provide an update on the performance and positioning of the Fund, including some topical issues around increasing interest rates and the negotiation of conversion prices given recent market volatility. Speakers: Michael Goldberg, Co-Founder, Vasilios Piperoglou, Co-Founder, and Rob Hay, Distribution & Investor Relations
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Global equities: Three different scenarios and their probabilities Pendal October 2022 |
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THE December quarter may see a rally, but equities will be range bound for the next few years, with rotations between value and growth stocks, argues Pendal global equities fund manager Chris Lees. "Our base-case scenario is that this interest rate shock-crisis 'valuation' bear market is morphing into a recessionary 'profits' bear market, with the S&P 500 already down 25% year-to-date. "But we don't expect widespread financial contagion, where markets would fall by more than 50% like in 2008. "Our current scenario analysis is 50% bullish and 50% bearish," says Lees, who co-manages Pendal Global Select Fund with long-time colleague Nudgem Richyal. "Short-term reasons to be bearish include a recession potentially becoming a financial crisis or contagion. "Medium-term reasons to be bullish include the US Federal Reserve regaining credibility with inflation and interest rates stabilising next year," Lees says. Lees breaks down the probability of three scenarios as follows:
What does it mean for investing?In recent months the fund has sold economically cyclical stocks with earnings risk due to recession, and purchased more economically resilient companies, including some in the emerging markets of Brazil and Indonesia. "Not many people know that the Brazilian and Indonesian equity markets have outperformed the USA stock market this year - even in US dollars - which is another example of just how different this bear market is from previous bear markets when they fell much harder," Lees says. The fund is also considering, or as Lees puts it "tiptoeing" around, neighbourhoods where they see positive relative fundamentals and valuations, with stabilising relative share prices. "Some quality growth stocks are already down 50 per cent year to date and are beginning to stabilise," Lees says. "And some emerging markets, notably Brazil and Indonesia." He also says its worth looking for opportunities to arise from the eventual turn in the US dollar, which in his words is "inevitable but not necessarily imminent".
Author: Chris Lees and Nudgem Richyal - co-manages Pendal Global Select Fund |
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Funds operated by this manager: Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund, Pendal Global Select Fund - Class R, Pendal Horizon Sustainable Australian Share Fund, Pendal MicroCap Opportunities Fund, Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Class R, Regnan Global Equity Impact Solutions Fund - Class R, Regnan Credit Impact Trust Fund |
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This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at December 8, 2021. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund (Fund) ARSN: 623 987 968. A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient's personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com |
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Magellan Infrastructure Strategy Update Magellan Asset Management October 2022 |
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Gerald Stack and Ofer Karliner, CFA, discuss the recent reporting season, the European energy crisis and provide an outlook for companies in Magellan's Infrastructure Strategy. Speaker: Gerald Stack Deputy CIO, Head of Infrastructure and Portfolio Manager |
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Funds operated by this manager: Magellan Global Fund (Hedged), Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC, Magellan High Conviction Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged), MFG Core Infrastructure Fund Important Information: This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 ('Magellan') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should read and consider any relevant offer documentation applicable to any investment product or service and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making any investment decision. A copy of the relevant PDS relating to a Magellan financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4888 or by visiting www.magellangroup.com.au. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any strategy, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to be implemented and its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of a Magellan financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Magellan makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Magellan. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. Any trademarks, logos, and service marks contained herein may be the registered and unregistered trademarks of their respective owners. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Magellan. |
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Around the world in 200 Meetings, Chris Willcocks: Management Teams Alphinity Investment Management October 2022 From Stockholm to Zurich, then a week in the UK at a European Industrials Conference. Chris Willcocks details his time spent overseas visiting companies, seeing their assets and operations and meeting management teams. Speakers: Chris Willcocks, Portfolio Manager & Elfreda Jonker, Client Portfolio Manager This information is for advisers & wholesale investors only. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Alphinity Australian Share Fund, Alphinity Concentrated Australian Share Fund, Alphinity Global Equity Fund, Alphinity Sustainable Share Fund Disclaimer |
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The Value in Securing Critical Mineral Supplies Tyndall Asset Management October 2022 Supply chain risk creates investment opportunities The concentration of supply of critical minerals related to decarbonisation is an issue that has been highlighted by major Western economies as a risk to securing the materials needed to meet climate goals. The US Government acknowledged its concerns around this supply chain risk within the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act. Amongst other issues, this Act outlines potential tax credits for Electric Vehicle purchases if certain conditions have been met, including that no critical mineral used in the vehicle is sourced from a "foreign entity of concern". Figure 1: Rare earths - as Neodymium-Praseodymium Oxide (NdPr) demand - EV's and wind to drive total demand growth of 6% CAGR to 2030 Source: Barrenjoey, Tyndall AM The supply dynamics of key materials needed for decarbonisation are already well understood given they are part of our most consumed metals, including copper and nickel. Others, which form an integral part of the road to electrification, are coming from an almost insignificant demand base relative to their outlook. This includes materials such as lithium, cobalt and rare earths. China's control of these materials needed to transition away from fossil fuels is extraordinary, dwarfing even that of OPEC's control of global oil markets. China controls 80% of battery raw material refining, 80% of solar panel manufacturing and 60% of wind turbine installations. Notably, while the level of market share is high for these manufactured products necessary in the energy transition, China does not dominate the supply of the raw materials needed to produce them. This provides global consumers with the opportunity to support new entrants to these markets to mitigate the risk around supply chains. However, rare earths are an exception. Figure 2: Rare Earths global supply chain
Source: Lynas Rare Earths China controls almost 90% of rare earth processing and over 60% of rare earth mining. This number could be considered closer to 75% when including Myanmar volumes which are generally trucked across the border, implying an element of control over these mines by the Chinese. The high level of market control exerted by China historically has allowed its government to manage rare earth prices to levels that have generally deterred international competition. Figure 3: Rare Earths (as NdPr) supply by region - China expected to remain dominant, but significant growth forecast out of Australia
Source: Barrenjoey, Tyndall AM Environmental risks to supply chains China's growth and dominance in rare earth mining and processing were driven by lax environmental standards which resulted in some exploitation of the country's abundant resources. The Chinese Government's credible environmental efforts saw the introduction of regulations to reduce environmental harm, including through forced industry consolidation to improve monitoring and the introduction of an export quota system to limit over-production. While environmental standards have increased, China's largest producers of rare earths still have low ESG scores. For example, China Northern rare earths is rated by Sustainalytics as "Severe Risk" and ranks the company second last out of the 14,647 stocks covered. Myanmar's nascent rare earth industry is facing substantial claims of environmental and social damage, with an Associated Press exposé highlighting substantial ecological harm and major negative impacts to Myanmar from mining practices. Land of plenty Australia can capitalise on this dynamic. It is already a key supplier of many critical minerals vital for decarbonisation, although current production is only a small fraction of the country's demonstrated resource. This provides significant scope for growth. Figure 4: Key critical minerals on major economy lists and their Australian resource endowment
Source: Tyndall AM, Geoscience Australia Iluka's Eneabba project, located some 300km north of Perth in Western Australia, will be Iluka's relatively low-risk entry into rare earth production. It is slated to produce 2.7mtpa NdPr initially, scaling up to 5.5mtpa in later stages which equates to 7% of forecast demand (for reference, Lynas rare earths currently produces 6ktpa NdPr). Figure 5: Iluka's illustrative rare earth (as NdPr) production profile from Eneabba and the expected total capacity of the operation
Source: Iluka Resources While we usually have a healthy amount of scepticism when miners attempt to move beyond core competencies, the Eneabba project has several attributes that make it relatively low risk. These include:
While no new development is ever a lay-down misère, it is rare to find a development in the resources space with relatively low technical and financial risk to the operator. We believe the project could ultimately be worth in excess of A$2bn and account for almost half of Iluka's value, when factoring in contributions from other resources. It is also rare to find a business fully exposed to key critical minerals at material levels of market share including elements so strategically important for decarbonisation. Conclusion As Western economies pivot to ensure supply security along entire decarbonisation supply chains, we expect the market's appreciation of Iluka's rare earth exposure will grow and add significant value to our investment. The US Inflation Reduction Act's rules around critical mineral sourcing away from "foreign entities of concern" creates a strong rationale for Australian rare earths to attract a valuation premium. We expect this will be priced into Iluka over time. Figure 6: NdPr price history (the key rare earth elements used in battery manufacture)
Source: Steelhome Author: Stefan Hansen, Senior Research Analyst Funds operated by this manager: Tyndall Australian Share Concentrated Fund, Tyndall Australian Share Income Fund, Tyndall Australian Share Wholesale Fund Important information: This material was prepared and is issued by Yarra Capital Management Limited (formerly Nikko AM Limited) ABN 99 003 376 252 AFSL No: 237563 (YCML). The information contained in this material is of a general nature only and does not constitute personal advice, nor does it constitute an offer of any financial product. It does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual. For this reason, you should, before acting on this material, consider the appropriateness of the material, having regard to your objectives, financial situation, and needs. The information in this material has been prepared from what is considered to be reliable information, but the accuracy and integrity of the information is not guaranteed. Figures, charts, opinions and other data, including statistics, in this material are current as at the date of publication, unless stated otherwise. The graphs and figures contained in this material include either past or backdated data, and make no promise of future investment returns. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Any economic or market forecasts are not guaranteed. Any references to particular securities or sectors are for illustrative purposes only and are as at the date of publication of this material. This is not a recommendation in relation to any named securities or sectors and no warranty or guarantee is provided. |
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The storm of inflation Kardinia Capital October 2022
Speakers: Stuart Fechner, Head of Research and Asset Consultant Relationships |
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Funds operated by this manager: Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund |
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The content contained in this audio represents the opinions of the speakers. The speakers may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the audio. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely as an avenue for the speakers to express their personal views on investing and for the entertainment of the listener. |
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Four key reasons for adding risk into Q4 Yarra Capital Management October 2022 It's probably one of the great understatements to describe markets in the third quarter as "challenging", with July's initial bounce in global equities giving way to an ugly 9.3% decline in September. And while it's a similar story in fixed income, it is noteworthy that Australian fixed income has performed materially better (-1.4% in Sept qtr) than global fixed income (-5.1%). So the question remains: do we still think the final quarter will bring a more genuine rebound for risk assets? And should we begin to tilt our expectations for a bigger recovery in global markets and in turn, a higher Australian dollar? In our latest update, Tim Toohey, Yarra Capital Management's Head of Macro and Strategy, details his four reasons for adding risk to portfolios into Q4. Speaker: Tim Toohey, Yarra Capital Management's Head of Macro and Strategy |
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Funds operated by this manager: Yarra Australian Equities Fund, Yarra Emerging Leaders Fund, Yarra Enhanced Income Fund, Yarra Income Plus Fund |
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China's deflating property market threatens wider economic trouble Magellan Asset Management October 2022 |
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand a year ago became the first advanced central bank to raise interest rates to cool its economy to tackle inflation. So far, the RBNZ has lifted its key rate seven times. The Bank of England, starting last December, has boosted its benchmark rate seven times too. The Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked the cash rate six times in six months; the Bank of Canada five times in seven months. The Federal Reserve has hoisted interest rates five times over six months. The European Central Bank has conducted two rate increases, one by a record amount. In the emerging world, Banco Central do Brazil has raised its Selic rate by 11.75 percentage points in 12 steps. The tally for El Banco Central de la República Argentina is eight increases that tally to 29.5 percentage points. The Reserve Bank of India has boosted its policy repo rate three times this year. What's the People's Bank of China done? It has loosened monetary policy again and again since late 2021. In December last year, the PBOC ordered the cut of the one-year loan prime rate, one of two de facto benchmark lending rates. [1] In January, the PBOC forced cuts in the one-year and five-year loan prime rates, where the five-year rate is the other de facto key rate.[2] In April, the PBOC reduced the amount banks must hold as reserves so they had more to lend.[3] In May, the PBOC instructed banks to again cut the five-year loan prime rate.[4] In August, the PBOC orchestrated a spate of rate cuts,[5] instructed banks to keep lending,[6] and organised special loans of up to US$29 billion for property developers.[7] In September, to support a tumbling yuan that trades within a daily PBOC-set band, the central bank cut the bank forex reserve ratio[8] - yet 10 days later the currency still fell below 7 to the US dollar compared with 6.35 at the start of the year. Same month, the PBOC directed state banks to cut deposit rates for the first time since 2015,[9] manoeuvred to support the yuan that still fell to a record low of 7.2 against the greenback the next day,[10] and applied tweaks to encourage lending to first-time home buyers.[11] Over the 10 months, Beijing has repeatedly announced fiscal stimulus.[12] Policymakers in China are pursuing such remedies because China's economy is hobbled in at least 10 ways. Standing out is the troubled property sector, which drives about 20% of GDP and represents about 66% of urban household wealth. The country is riddled with half-built residential buildings, which is deflating a property bubble. The history behind such worries is that policymakers super-stimulated the property market to compensate for lost exports to get through the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Since 2020, to quell overheating, however, officials under a 'three red lines' policy[13] have restricted credit to property companies, which has dented building activity and bankrupted developers (most notably, China Evergrande Group that has an estimated US$300 billion in liabilities).[14] Home prices have slid every month over the year to August.[15] Since Chinese buy off the plan, many people now own homes yet to be built - The Economist estimates that only 60% of homes pre-sold between 2013 and 2020 have been delivered.[16] Many of these dudded pre-buyers are boycotting mortgage payments - hundreds of thousands of borrowers in more than 100 cities, by some counts.[17] The property crisis so imperils the finances of local governments - they rely on land sales for much of their revenue - cities have implemented about 70 policies to support property, to little avail.[18] The property crisis highlights a second weakness. The country's business, government and household debts reached 280% of GDP in 2019 and can't rise endlessly. Central government debt at 73% of output in 2022, while low by international standards, curtails Beijing's ability to bail out the property sector[19] China's debt-fuelled property woes link into a third challenge; the stability of China's banks, especially the country's 4,000 small and mid-sized banks. In April, several small banks in eastern landlocked Henan Province failed. The fact that authorities silenced depositors entitled to compensation shocked China watchers, especially when on July 10 thugs assaulted depositors in front of police when they protested outside the People's Bank branch office in Henan's capital of Zhengzhou.[20] China's largest banks, having lent to property companies and to risky emerging countries as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, are too shaky to absorb tottering smaller banks. The concern is that a rash of small bank failures could trigger a systemic financial crisis. The perils surrounding China's banks are amplified by a fourth problem; covid-19. To enforce a zero-covid policy, Chinese authorities have locked down large cities to control the disease because they can't rely on the inferior China-made vaccines and refuse to import foreign ones. These repeated lockdowns of up to 30% of China's population have stifled economic activity, created youth unemployment of 20%, undermined business and consumer confidence, prevented people from scouting for properties and stirred protests. This lockdown blow to the economy blunts the effect of monetary and fiscal stimulus. China's wobbly banks are no longer protected by the double-digit economic growth of yesteryear, or even the 7.1% annual growth from 2011 to 2020. China's worst-ever heatwave and the linked drought is a fifth economic misfortune, even if a temporary problem.[21] Factories have been forced to cut production because hydro generation has halved.[22] Water levels have dropped enough to impede river trade. Food prices have jumped. Authorities have warned the drought poses a "severe" threat to the coming autumn harvest, when 75% of the country's grain is gathered.[23] China's sixth trial is that the rate increases implemented by about 90 central banks (according to Bloomberg's tally) are reducing demand for Chinese exports.[24] A seventh worry is that the deglobalisation fanned in part by China-US tensions deters the Western investment that drove China's economic ascension. Higher wages in China, as part of the government's spluttering push to switch from an export-and-investment-led economic model to a consumption-driven protype, deters investment too. An eighth handicap is China-US strains are cutting China off from Western technology, especially related to artificial intelligence, microchips and supercomputers. A ninth and durable impediment is China's poor demographics. A record low fertility rate of 7.52 births per 1,000 people mean the country's population of 1.4 billion is ageing and close to shrinking, commonly accepted as drags on economic dynamism.[25] A tenth handicap is President Xi Jinping's nationalistic and statist ideological bent. Xi favours state intervention in the economy. He has diverted resources to the state sector and preferred industrial ventures while curbing the dynamism of the private sector, especially that of the technology industry. Productivity, the lifeblood of rising living standards, is threatened. China's troubles mean its economy is expected to expand only about 3% in coming years, effectively at recession levels - the World Bank in October reduced its China growth forecast for 2022 from 5% to 2.8%. Such a slowdown comes with local and global consequences. Within China, the biggest risk is the public's faith in the Chinese Communist Party could be tested, especially people's confidence in Xi, China's most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong. Disagreement over an economic recovery plan is even stirring opposition to Xi inside the Communist Party, including within the supreme Politburo Standing Committee (cabinet). "For the first time since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, China's leader is facing not only internal dissent but also an intense popular backlash and a real risk of social unrest," assesses. Cai Xia, a professor at the Central (Communist) Party School from 1998 to 2012. [26] Any China slump would be felt around the world because China's output comprises about 19.6% of global GDP on a purchasing-power-parity basis. Many of the commodities, currencies and other assets, priced on an assumption that China will endlessly expand, could falter. Countries dependent on China (Australia, Brazil and Germany that just recorded its first trade deficit since 1991, to cite two) might struggle. Stressed emerging countries tied to the Belt and Road Initiative could suffer because China, having spent US$1 trillion on the project, is no position to release them from punishing terms.[27] A Xi-led CCP under pressure at home could double-down on 'wolf warrior' diplomacy and nationalism. Some fret it makes an invasion of Taiwan more likely.[28] China escaped the worst of the global financial crisis but its reaction may have cultivated a local brew of the same toxicity that makes it unlikely China will become the world's biggest economy any time soon, even ever. At the very least, an era of slow Chinese growth is dawning. At worst, a Chinese implosion could be the biggest blow of all for a fragile world economy. To be sure, China's economy is still expanding, the manufacturing sector is in fine shape and the country's state-backed financial system can absorb huge losses. A drop in imports is preserving China's trade surplus. China's spending on research and development now reaches 85% of that spent by the US. So innovation must be coming that will spur productivity.[29] There are no signs the masses are unruly. With its surveillance technology, perhaps no autocratic regime has been better equipped to stifle dissent. Xi is expected to cement a third term. But his power might be weakened in the process, perhaps a beneficial outcome. Rather than fuel aggression, China's economic woes might push Beijing towards a rapprochement with Washington.[30] China's slowdown at least helps the world curb inflation. Beijing's move towards a consumption-driven economy is the right long-term solution, as is prioritising high-tech and renewable sectors. But such solutions will take time. They can't quickly solve that four decades of growth have stirred imbalances that Xi is exacerbating with lockdowns, aggression abroad and an ideology that restrains economic development. Even more PBOC support might be insufficient to avoid the worst. Source: China's economic statistics come from the IMF's World Economic Outlook Database released in April 2022 unless otherwise stated. The database can be found at: imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2022/April. China's non-financial company, government and household debts in 2019 are from the Bank of International Settlements.
Author: Michael Collins, Investment Specialist |
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Funds operated by this manager: Magellan Global Fund (Hedged), Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC, Magellan High Conviction Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged), MFG Core Infrastructure Fund
[1] 'Chinese banks cut borrowing costs to counter economic slowdown.' Bloomberg News. 20 December 2021. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-20/chinese-banks-cut-borrowing-costs-for-first-time-in-20-months [2] 'Chinese banks cut borrowing costs as PBOC signals easing.' Bloomberg News. 20 January 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-20/chinese-banks-cut-borrowing-costs-again-on-pboc-easing-signals [3] 'China's central bank takes modest easing path despite covid.' Bloomberg News. 15 April 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-15/china-s-central-bank-cuts-reserve-ratio-for-banks-to-spur-growth [4] 'China banks cut key rate by record to boost ailing economy.' Bloomberg News. 20 May 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-20/china-cuts-borrowing-costs-by-record-to-boost-loan-demand [5] 'China shocks with rate cut as data shows 'alarming' slowdown.' Bloomberg News. 15 August 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-15/china-central-bank-unexpectedly-cuts-key-rate-to-boost-growth. [6] 'China seeks to stabilise property crisis as PBOC urges lending.' Bloomberg News. 22 August 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/china-s-banks-trim-lending-rates-to-reverse-slump-in-borrowing [7] 'China plans $29 billion in special loans to troubled developers.' Bloomberg News. 22 August 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/china-plans-29-billion-in-special-loans-to-troubled-developers [8] 'China cuts forex reserve ratio in bid to support tumbling yuan.' Bloomberg News. 5 September 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/china-battles-yuan-losses-by-unleashing-foreign-exchange-onshore [9] 'China's state banks cut deposit rates for the first time since 2015.' Financial Times. 15 September 2022. ft.com/content/e9d7a148-a7af-400b-8ea3-a76c9607b188?emailId=5c0c3eae-12b0-4649-86a0-e0ed2e6a8474&segmentId=60a126e8-df3c-b524-c979-f90bde8a67cd [10] The PBOC ordered that financial institutions selling foreign-exchange forward contracts be subject to a 20% risk-reserve ratio, up from zero. The change makes it costlier to sell yuan to buy dollars in the derivatives markets. See 'China's central bank moves further to bolster the yuan.' The Wall Street Journal. 26 September 2022. wsj.com/articles/chinas-central-bank-moves-further-to-bolster-the-yuan-11664190159. 'China's offshore currency hits record low against dollar.' The Wall Street Journal. wsj.com/articles/chinas-offshore-currency-hits-record-low-against-dollar-11664333671 [11] 'China property shares rally on policy support.' Financial Times. 3 October 2022. ft.com/content/0ffa4fb4-906f-4faa-8906-8a7e07852c92 [12] 'These are China's new measures to bolster economic growth.' Bloomberg News. 25 August 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-25/these-are-china-s-19-new-measures-to-bolster-economic-growth. See also 'China's stimulus: All the steps taken recently to boost the economy. Bloomberg News. 26 August 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-26/china-s-stimulus-all-the-steps-taken-recently-to-boost-economy [13] Bloomberg News. QuickTake. 'What China's three red lines mean for property firms.' 9 October 2020. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/what-china-s-three-red-lines-mean-for-property-firms-quicktake [14] Financial Times. 'Evergrande misses deadline for $300bn debt restructuring plan.' 31 July 2022. ft.com/content/01f8a2c7-4ed1-487b-aada-ac5e2b5a9932 [15] Bloomberg. 'China's home price slump reaches a year as crisis drags on.' 16 September 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-16/china-s-home-prices-fall-for-one-year-straight-as-crisis-deepens#xj4y7vzkg. The statistics are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China but its website is unsafe. [16] 'China's Ponzi-like property market is eroding faith in the state.' The Economist. 12 September 2022. economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/09/12/chinas-ponzi-like-property-market-is-eroding-faith-in-the-state [17] Daisuke Wakabayashi. 'Homeowners boycott mortgage payments.' The New York Times. 17 August 2022. nytimes.com/2022/08/17/business/china-economy-real-estate-crisis.html [18] Bloomberg News. 'China rolls out property policies across nation to fix slump.' 14 September 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/china-trickles-out-property-policies-across-nation-to-fix-slump. Bloomberg. 'China's home price slump reaches a year as crisis drags on.' 16 September 2022. Op cit. [19] Non-financial company debt stood at about 160% of GDP and household debt at about 60% in 2019. [20] See 'China's debt bomb looks ready to explode.' Nikkei Asia. 17 July 2022. asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-debt-bomb-looks-ready-to-explode [21] See New Scientist. 'Heatwave in China is the most severe ever recorded in the world.' 23 August 2022. newscientist.com/article/2334921-heatwave-in-china-is-the-most-severe-ever-recorded-in-the-world/ [22] Bloomberg News. 'Power crunch in Sichuan adds to industry's woes in China.' 21 August 2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-21/power-crunch-in-sichuan-adds-to-manufacturers-woes-in-china [23] Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China. 'China urges intensified efforts to secure autumn harvests amid heatwaves.' 23 August 2022. english.moa.gov.cn/news_522/202208/t20220823_300951.html. See also 'China's record drought is drying rivers and feeding its coal habit.' The New York Times. 26 August 2022. nytimes.com/2022/08/26/business/economy/china-drought-economy-climate.html [24] The World Bank in September warned the rate increases could trigger a "devastating" global recession. The World Bank. 'Risk of global recession in 2023 rises amid simultaneous rate hikes.' 15 September 2022. worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/09/15/risk-of-global-recession-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes [25] ChinaDaily, a government-controlled English-language publication. 'Lower living costs to boost birth rate.' 19 January 2022. global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202201/19/WS61e75124a310cdd39bc81e1b.html [26] Cai Xia, professor at the Central Party School of the Chinese Communist Party from 1998 to 2012. 'The weakness of Xi Jinping.' Foreign Affairs. September/October 2022. foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-china-weakness-hubris-paranoia-threaten-future [27] See 'China reins in its Belt and Road Program, $1 trillion later.' The Wall Street Journal. 26 September 2022. wsj.com/articles/china-belt-road-debt-11663961638 [28] See 'War jitters. A weak China may be more warlike than a strong one.' A review of the book 'Danger zone: The coming conflict with China' by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley. The Economist. 1 September 2022. economist.com/china/2022/09/01/a-weak-china-may-be-more-warlike-than-a-strong-one [29] OECD. 'Main science and technology indicators.' September 2020. oecd.org/sti/msti.htm [30] See Victoria Herczegh. 'A confrontation China can't afford.' 27 July 2022. https://geopoliticalfutures.com/a-confrontation-china-cant-afford/ Important Information: This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 ('Magellan') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should read and consider any relevant offer documentation applicable to any investment product or service and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making any investment decision. A copy of the relevant PDS relating to a Magellan financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4888 or by visiting www.magellangroup.com.au. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any strategy, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to be implemented and its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of a Magellan financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Magellan makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. 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