A glance in the rear view mirror...

Every so often Hedge Clippings likes to track through our prior meanderings. There are a number of reasons for this - not wanting to repeat oneself too often and thus become tedious is one, or regurgitate last week's views and be considered forgetful, or worse, being another. However now and again we like to check that our weekly gibber is not overly gibberish, and that what we might have written in the past remains relevant.

Of course, if one of our past editions was shown to be completely incorrect we might not highlight the fact. However, in this case we looked at a "Hedge Clippings" from early June when we mentioned, amongst other things, the possibility that North Korea might overstep the mark.

Far be it from us to try to predict who will win the chest beating exercise between North Korea's presidential nutter, Kim Jong-un and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, but it would seem that neither is renowned for stepping back from a fight, even if in Kim's case it is one that numerically only one side can win, while everyone else also loses. However it has finally jolted markets and the VIX out of their low interest rate stupor. Kim cares not a jot for world opinion, and based on his previous rhetoric, Trump not a lot more. However, we would agree with Trump that a line has to be drawn in the sand somewhere, and as previous US administrations have failed to do so, we are reminded of the old saying that "people behave the way they're allowed to".

In the same edition we also commented on the seeming malaise in Australian politics, and this week's decision (or abdication of one) to resolve the same sex marriage question by holding a non binding, non-compulsory, postal opinion poll seems to personify the issue. Without wanting to enter the debate on either side, the process seems to be symptomatic of the current disconnect between business confidence and household sentiment.

Business confidence is high as a result of low interest rates, low inflation, low wages growth,little in the way of labour shortages, and the use of technology to reduce costs. The other side of the coin is that consumer sentiment is low due to high housing costs, low wages growth, uncertain employment prospects, and looming high utility bills. However we suspect that's not all that is troubling the average household. There would seem to be a lack of clear national direction, which is also affecting the widespread optimism that was apparent when Tony Abbott was removed as PM, and could it be a reflection of the fact  - or perception - that in reality he's still there pulling strings?

Finally, while on the subject of malaise, a word on corporate governance at the big end of town in a week where it was announced that in the US since the start of the GFC 10 years ago, financial institutions have paid fines totaling US$150 billion for the various misdeeds of management. More correctly the shareholders of those financial institutions have presumably paid the $150 billion in fines. Full marks therefore to the board of the CBA for at least slapping the wrist of a few senior executives. However, in reality, and as one who has spent some considerable time and effort to keep up to date with the AUSTRAC Anti Money Laundering (AML) provisions, those responsible at CBA must have either been asleep on the job, or incompetent, (or both) to have permitted such extensive and long running cash deposits to have occurred right under their noses.

OPTIMAL AUSTRALIA ABSOLUTE TRUST

AFM have released the most recently updated Fund Review on the Optimal Australia Absolute Trust.

We would like to highlight the following aspects of the Fund;

• ARCO Investment Management is a specialist Australian equity investment manager and the Fund has a long/short equity strategy typically with a low but variable net market exposure comprising 40 to 65 stocks broadly selected from within the ASX200. 

• The investment team comprising George Colman, Peter Whiting, and Stephen Nicholls bring 100 years combined experience in equity markets.

• In July, the Fund returned +0.24%, taking annualised return since inception to 8.12% p.a. The Fund's approach to risk is shown by the Sharpe ratio of 1.32 (Index 0.26), Sortino ratio of 2.71 (Index 0.26), both of which are well above the ASX 200 Accumulation Index and has recorded over 79% positive months.

For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.

Australian Fund Monitors

ATTACHED FILESAFM Fund Review - July 2017 (pdf format)

BENNELONG TWENTY20 AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES FUND

Attached is our most recently updated  Fund Review on the Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund.

• The Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund invests in ASX listed stocks, combining an indexed position in the Top 20 stocks with an actively managed portfolio of stocks outside the Top 20. Construction of the ex-top 20 portfolio is fundamental, bottom-up, core investment style, biased to quality stocks, with a structured risk management approach.

• Mark East, the Fund's Chief Investment Officer, and Keith Kwang, Director of Quantitative Research have over 50 years combined market experience. Bennelong Funds Management (BFM) provides the investment manager, Bennelong Australian Equity Partners (BAEP) with infrastructure, operational, compliance and distribution services.

For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.

Australian Fund Monitors

ATTACHED FILESAFM Fund Review July 2017 (pdf format)

INSYNC GLOBAL TITANS FUND

Attached is our most recently updated Fund Review on the Insync Global Titans Fund.

We would like to highlight the following:

• The Global Titans Fund invests in a concentrated portfolio of 15-30 stocks, targeting exceptional, large cap global companies with a strong focus on dividend growth and downside protection.

• Portfolio selection is driven by a core strategy of investing in companies with sustainable growth in dividends, high returns on capital, positive free cash flows and strong balance sheets.

• Emphasis on limiting downside risk is through extensive company research, the ability to hold cash and long protective index put options.

For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.

Australian Fund Monitors

ATTACHED FILESAFM Fund Review - July 2017 (pdf format)

Some disconcerting statistics...

Equity markets fluctuate on a daily basis, and as a result investors can become very, if not short sighted, at least short term in their outlook. Fund managers on the other hand need to have both a short and longer term vision: Short term to make sure that their monthly performance, upon which the investor judges them, encourages inflows, and longer term to ensure that they are at least investing in the right direction.

In many ways at both Hedge Clippings and Australian Fund Monitors we are part of the problem, reporting as we do on each fund's monthly performance. As such we can be accused of adding to the short termism, although we would argue that we are also focused significantly on the longer term, and particularly longer term risks. This ties in with the regulator's requirement, where investors are warned that investment in a managed fund (unlike a share on the ASX which can be traded daily) should be looked at over a 3 to 5 year time frame.

So where are we going with all this? Well, yesterday Hedge Clippings went to a seminar which featured a presentation from the Hon. Bernie Ripoll, talking about the influence of technology in general, but also financial services, and on financial advice in particular. He also touched on one of our favourite subjects, namely the accelerating change in demographics, but more of that in moment.

When talking about technology, Bernie reminded his audience that it is 10 years since launch of the iPhone, at which time Steve Jobs said that there were three essential pieces of technology which he used frequently, namely his mobile phone, computer, and music player. With the release of the iPhone he only need one piece. This is not to promote Apple or the iPhone, but it is amazing how rapidly technology advances, and keep advancing. How could we contemplate our lives without one now - which with camera now included, makes four essential devices?

As far as financial services are concerned, technology has been slow to keep up with other industries or service sectors. Thanks to the dangers of money laundering and terrorism, purchasing a financial product has until recently ( excuse a small plug here for our Olivia123 online application system here) remained firmly in the pen and paper bucket. However one of the big advances, and buzzwords in financial services, at the current time is Robo Advice.

According to recent research by Investment Trends, 62% of financial advisers apparently believe that Robo Advice will not affect them. We beg to differ. Technology will increasingly affect every aspect of our lives, and financial services and advice will not be immune from change. It might not be pure push button, algorithmic, robo advice, but financial services, like all industries or sectors, will be revolutionised by technology, either resulting in better decisions, or driving down the cost.

As mentioned earlier, Bernie also brought up some interesting statistics on demographics and the ageing population. Whilst happy to criticise the current government (not surprisingly given his political persuasion) the reality is that governments of both parties have dropped the ball, lost the plot, call it what you will, when it comes to providing for the long term financial future of both individuals and the nation. They are not structuring superannuation, which in its original form was designed to reduce the drain on the public purse caused by people retiring and drawing a pension, for the long-term

Consider these uncomfortable statistics (especially if you still expect to be around for some time to come): According to Bernie's research:

• In 1975 there were 7.3 working people (PAYE taxpayers) in Australia for every person over the age of 65 (and therefore presumably eligible for a pension).
• As of 2017 this has dropped to 4.5 working people for every person over the age of 65.
• Fast forward to 2055, and it is estimated that there will be only 2.7 Australians working for every person over the age of 65.

The taxation burden on those 2.7 people will obviously be enormous, particularly if they are not encouraged to become self-supporting in their retirement in the meantime. We would argue that they shouldn't be encouraged to become self-supporting, wherever possible they should be forced to become self-supporting. Restricting the amount of money that Australian workers can put into their retirement simply to balance the short term budget doesn't make sense in the long-term,.

While talking about superannuation and demographics, a couple of other scary statistics:

• By 2055 is estimated there will be twice as many people over the age of 65 than there are today.
• There will be four times as many people over the age of 85 than there are today.
• By 2035 it is estimated there will be $9.5 trillion in superannuation, even though this will be insufficient to keep the majority of people in the manner to which they would like to be accustomed.