NEWS
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27 Sep 2022 - Webinar Replay: Catalyst Fund
L1 Capital Webinar Replay: Catalyst Fund L1 Capital September 2022 WEBINAR REPLAY | L1 Capital Catalyst Fund | September 15, 2022
Speaker: James Hawkins, Partner & Head of L1 Capital's Catalyst Fund Time Stamps: • 0.44 Fund overview • 2.50 Reflections from the first year • 4.49 Activist market observations • 13.17 Questions from investors |
Funds operated by this manager: L1 Capital Long Short Fund (Monthly Class), L1 Capital International Fund, L1 Capital Long Short Fund (Daily Class), L1 Long Short Fund Limited (ASX: LSF), L1 Capital Catalyst Fund, L1 Capital Global Opportunities Fund |
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27 Sep 2022 - Investment Perspectives: Why rising interest rates aren't working (yet)
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26 Sep 2022 - Look beyond market noise to unlock China's growth
Look beyond market noise to unlock China's growth abrdn August 2022 Market sentiment on China has become especially fragile of late amid fears over near-term growth. However, we see reasons to be positive and urge investors to think longer term and ignore market noise. Hot topics among our investment teams include zero-Covid policy, US-China tensions, monetary and fiscal easing, the weak economic backdrop, a beleaguered property sector and regulatory oversight. China's economy contracted 2.6% in the second quarter this year on the back of Covid-19 lockdowns and a real estate sector under severe liquidity stress due to continued government deleveraging. Of course, these headwinds will likely trigger further monetary and fiscal policy easing, which will support China's economy. Chiefly we expect infrastructure spending and modest interest rate cuts. In the absence of strong stimuli, we're anticipating a gradual turnaround. Our Research Institute is forecasting year-on-year GDP growth of about 3% in 2022 - below market consensus of close to 4%. We see authorities have levers to stabilise the property sector, and growing policy support reaffirms Beijing's commitment. Reportedly they're considering a rescue fund to deliver unfinished residential projects. While it may be insufficient to shore up buyers' confidence, it's a step in the right direction. Further, we expect policymakers to dilute or discard their zero-Covid strategy over time, most likely after the Party's 20th National Congress this year. So we see lockdown effects on growth dissipating. Similarly we see regulatory pressures easing. At a recent Politburo meeting we noted support for expanding China's universe of digital platforms and standardising supervision. Stable regulation will help to improve investor confidence and could drive multiple re-ratings for e-commerce companies. Clearly, geopolitical risk is hard to predict and we expect heightened US-China tensions to last for some time. But we view such tensions as periodic and part of an evolving geopolitical landscape. Our base case is that Beijing will not engage in direct military conflict with Taiwan in the near term. We think cooler heads will prevail in recognition of the heavy cost to economies and global stability. We believe imposing sanctions on Taiwan would be contrary to Beijing's own economic interests, while more military drills around the Taiwan Strait risk disrupting global supply chains and logistics. So what might investors expect? Here we outline our investment teams' China views. Equity teamIt's early for China's economy to show strong signs of recovery on the back of easing measures. So we expect equity markets to remain rangebound in the near term. But we're constructive on the outlook as stimulus measures start to work their way through the system in the second half of 2022. "We're constructive on the outlook as stimulus measures start to work their way through the system in the second half." Companies have started reporting their first-half results, with investors now more focused on analysing fundamentals to understand their underlying strengths and weaknesses. Given our focus on high-quality stocks, we're optimistic about the earnings resilience of our holdings. Valuations also look attractive. The MSCI China A Onshore Index's 12-month forward price-earnings ratio is 11.6x - comfortably below 15.4x for MSCI World and against a five-year average of 12.6x.1 China aims to reduce real estate's contribution to GDP growth due to the sector's high leverage. We have positioned our equity portfolios around the following five themes that we think will enjoy state support and are deemed critical to give China a competitive edge in its economic rivalry with the US: Aspiration: rising affluence leading to fast growth in premium consumption; Fixed income teamWith inflation not an issue, we expect stronger fiscal policy-easing this year and further rate cuts over the next 12 months. However, we suspect growth in infrastructure investment might disappoint after a strong first half. Momentum in the property sector is too weak for it to recover this year. Property sales have fallen sharply and will likely stay low amid impaired consumer confidence. However, we think state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the sector with continued access to funding are well-placed to outperform. Additionally, with the rollout of more co-ordinated government support, we see potential for stabilisation among large, well-established privately owned enterprise (POE) developers. More generally, Chinese SOEs have enjoyed healthy demand in recent months and we expect them to retain strong government support, although we remain cautious about valuations. We think onshore SOE spreads will remain tight in coming months. We have been trimming core SOE positions over rich valuations relative to Asian and global peers. For the same reason we underweight Chinese financials in the offshore market, especially big banks. We also see supportive liquidity conditions for Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) in the near term, albeit amid growing concerns about the ability of local governments to support them. Offshore China portfolio positioning:
Onshore China bond positioning:
Multi-Asset teamThe world is a highly unusual place today, with this economic cycle different for three reasons: policymakers are seeking to avoid stimulating the economy via the property sector; strict Covid containment measures continue to dampen consumption; and major central banks are tightening policy aggressively to fight inflation, leading to slower global growth. Whereas in China, where inflation is not an issue, economic growth is in the early stages of recovery after authorities started easing policy this year. Government bond yields are near historic lows, so not outright cheap. But equity risk premia and offshore credit spreads remain attractive. As a result, although Chinese growth is likely to see sequential improvement in the second half of this year, the strength of the recovery will be weaker than in previous cycles. Monetary policy is likely to remain loose, with credit growth driven more by government than the property sector. As policymakers seek to balance short-term growth with long-term structural reform goals, we remain long China onshore equity and China duration; cautious on China credit; and we recommend hedging currency risk when investing in China. In a normal cycle, an early recovery phase is the time to invest in Chinese equity. However, in this cycle we think the recovery will be highly uneven and asset allocators need to pay close attention to potential tail-risk from Covid lockdowns and the property sector. Active stock selection is key. In a normal cycle, as growth recovery takes hold, the bulk of government bond outperformance should be behind us. However, in this cycle the weak recovery suggests China's central bank is likely to keep liquidity conditions loose, meaning bond yields will remain lower for longer. In a normal cycle, credit should rally with equities. However, in this cycle we are not confident that policymakers will backstop troubled property developers, which means high-yield credit will remain distressed. Of course, that does not preclude interesting opportunities in investment grade credit. For currencies, we think CNY can stay resilient on a trade-weighted basis, but weakening external demand and a hawkish US Federal Reserve will put downward pressure on CNY against USD. For global investors, hedging CNY risk is not a bad idea as hedging costs are at their lowest for five years.
Author: Nicholas Yeo, Head Of China Equities; |
Funds operated by this manager: Aberdeen Standard Actively Hedged International Equities Fund, Aberdeen Standard Asian Opportunities Fund, Aberdeen Standard Australian Small Companies Fund, Aberdeen Standard Emerging Opportunities Fund, Aberdeen Standard Ex-20 Australian Equities Fund (Class A), Aberdeen Standard Focused Sustainable Australian Equity Fund, Aberdeen Standard Fully Hedged International Equities Fund, Aberdeen Standard Global Absolute Return Strategies Fund, Aberdeen Standard Global Corporate Bond Fund, Aberdeen Standard International Equity Fund , Aberdeen Standard Life Absolute Return Global Bond Strategies Fund, Aberdeen Standard Multi Asset Real Return Fund, Aberdeen Standard Multi-Asset Income Fund 1 Bloomberg, 26 August 2022 |
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23 Sep 2022 - Europe Trip Insights
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23 Sep 2022 - Outlook Snapshot
Outlook Snapshot Cyan Investment Management September 2022 |
After the strong rally in July which extended into the middle of August, markets became significantly more bearish on renewed inflation concerns and rate rises which saw the broader markets shed almost 5% in the last two weeks of the month. Much of this bearishness was as a result of rate rise fears being validated in early September with the RBA's fifth rate rise in as many months taking rates from 0.35% to 2.25%. By and large the August reporting season did not produce the dire results many participants feared, although, in the case of many companies, outlook statements from management were noncommittal due to the economic and geopolitical uncertainty ahead. Another key theme was a focus on cost management, and there remain a number of high-growth emerging technology businesses that failed in that regard and continue to burn through extreme amounts of cash. Anecdotally we have seen an increase in market activity, a number of new IPO's have been marketed along with a good increase in corporate flow along with the previously discussed takeover activity. Whilst this has not yet resulted in substantially increased trading volumes, we absolutely feel that the market is heading back towards more 'normal' levels of activity.
As we mentioned in our introduction there are certainly some 'green shoots' in the domestic market with takeover bids, new IPOs and generally increased levels of confidence and market activity. In the past two weeks we have had more than a dozen face-to-face meetings with management (along with a similar number of zoom calls) so it's very much beginning to feel like business conditions are improving. After more than 12 months of bearish stock market trading we feel there are presently a number of emerging market trends that could result in markedly improved short to medium term performance. Certainly, we feel that our investee companies have been, on the whole, trading well and we're firmly of the view that from present levels, upside price appreciation far exceeds downside. What we wrote previously remains very much relevant: "We still see a gap between price and value in many of our holdings. However, with sentiment feeling more positive ... we hope that some of that inherent value will be released in the short to medium term as the market re-focuses on quality, growing companies and fundamental research." |
Funds operated by this manager: Cyan C3G Fund |
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21 Sep 2022 - Reporting season better than many feared
Reporting season better than many feared Glenmore Asset Management September 2022 In August, equity markets were weaker, driven by expectations around the number of future interest rate rises needed to reduce inflation. In the key US indices, the S&P 500 was down -4.2%, the Nasdaq fell -4.6%, whilst in the UK the FTSE 100 performed better, declining -1.9%. Australia outperformed, where the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index rose +1.3%, driven by its heavy weighting to resources and oil and gas stocks, which outperformed strongly. Property, consumer staples and utilities sectors lagged. The key driver of declines in global indices were comments made by Jerome Powell (chair of US Federal Reserve) in late August which indicated the US Federal Reserve monetary policy will be aimed very strongly at bringing down inflation closer to its long range target of ~2%, which in turn indicates the interest rate hiking phase will be larger and go for longer than some equity investors had hoped for. On this issue, our base expectation is that central banks will need to raise rates aggressively for another 6-12 months in order to reduce inflation to more acceptable levels. Whilst this will lead to a challenging and volatile period for equity markets, the positive is that this volatility is likely to provide excellent buying opportunities in stocks across a range of sectors on the ASX. In fixed interest markets, the US 10 year bond yield rose sharply, climbing 42 basis points to close at 3.13%, whilst the yield on the Australian 10 year bond also rose sharply, by 54bp to close at 3.55%. The A$/US$ fell -2.0% to close at US$68.5. Commodities were broadly lower in August, iron ore fell - 16.0%, crude oil -12.3%, copper fell -2.1%, whilst thermal coal continued to outperform, rising +4.2%. Overall, the August reporting season was better than many investors had feared, with most results coming in close to consensus expectations. With that said, we are still quite early of the interest rate hiking cycle, with company results for the December 2022 half likely to be more impacted by rising interest rates, higher cost of living, and general caution on household spending. Funds operated by this manager: |
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21 Sep 2022 - Why it's important to consider ESG in asset allocation
Why it's important to consider ESG in asset allocation Pendal August 2022 |
ESG is not just a company-level issue, says Pendal multi-asset portfolio manager ALAN POLLEY
ENVIRONMENTAL, social and governance factors should be incorporated into portfolios at an asset allocation level - rather than only at individual stock selection level, says Pendal's Alan Polley. ESG has long been a critical factor in investing, aiming to identify and avoid risk and financial loss as well as bring about change. But it's often considered only at a company level. A better investing framework would incorporate ESG factors at an asset allocation level before the security selection process even takes place, says Polley, a portfolio manager in Pendal's multi-asset team. "We know asset allocation is the primary driver of investment returns. It explains about 90 per cent of the return variability in a portfolio according to the original Brinson study," says Polley. "But ESG integration in asset allocation is not something that is covered in the industry. That's for two reasons: "First, because it's hard. How do you think about it? "And second, in my opinion, asset allocation is not well shaped in the industry overall. So, where does ESG fit into an investment process that isn't very well defined?" Three-part frameworkPolley offers a three-part framework for thinking about ESG in asset allocation. The practice of asset allocation fundamentally involves three decisions, he says:
"When you think about asset allocation, you really doing one of those three things - there's no other decisions. "Given those three decisions sets, incorporating ESG is quite simple." Climate change examplePolley uses the environmental factor of carbon emissions as an example. "Emissions intensity in Australia is vastly higher than global markets. So, if you think climate change is an important investment consideration, you might tilt away from Australian equities towards international developed markets. "There is a ESG headwind to the Australian market and the Australian economy in its exposure to fossil fuels." Pendal's multi-asset funds have incorporated this insight by reducing a portfolio's home bias and tilting instead towards US and European shares. The framework also holds true for social and governance factors. "Emerging markets are not great on E, S or G - they are emerging for a reason. But we're not going to rule out the asset class because it's an important source of diversification and returns. "So, we changed the definition - for emerging markets, we've removed repressive regimes: China, Saudi Arabia, Russia and a few others. From an ESG standpoint, we just don't think they're true to label." The change means the portfolios can still hold emerging markets assets and lifts the weightings to less risky markets. New asset classesThe third asset allocation decision - introducing new asset classes - has allowed the portfolios to lift exposure to the energy transition theme. "The conversion from fossil fuels to renewables is a secular tailwind so we have created a listed renewables infrastructure asset class. We're investing directly into renewable listed investment companies - the underlying assets are pure infrastructure like batteries, wind farms, solar and hydro. "It's great because we tend to focus on investing in primary market stock issuances, so we're directly funding the development of these renewables assets. "It's a great way of getting a big lick of ESG exposure into our portfolios within the asset allocation construct." It's important that sustainable investors step beyond simple security selection, says Polley. "Security selection is just the first generation of ESG thinking - the 1G. "Asset allocation is 2G and you can even step up to a third generation and consider ESG in the whole of portfolio construction. "But most of the industry is still stuck at 1G." Author: Alan Polley, Portfolio Manager |
Funds operated by this manager: Pendal Focus Australian Share Fund, Pendal Global Select Fund - Class R, Pendal Horizon Sustainable Australian Share Fund, Pendal MicroCap Opportunities Fund, Pendal Sustainable Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Class R, Regnan Global Equity Impact Solutions Fund - Class R, Regnan Credit Impact Trust Fund |
This information has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and is current as at December 8, 2021. PFSL is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Pendal Multi-Asset Target Return Fund (Fund) ARSN: 623 987 968. A product disclosure statement (PDS) is available for the Fund and can be obtained by calling 1300 346 821 or visiting www.pendalgroup.com. The Target Market Determination (TMD) for the Fund is available at www.pendalgroup.com/ddo. You should obtain and consider the PDS and the TMD before deciding whether to acquire, continue to hold or dispose of units in the Fund. An investment in the Fund or any of the funds referred to in this web page is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment of withdrawal proceeds and loss of income and principal invested. This information is for general purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient's personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections are predictive only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. Whilst we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. For more information, please call Customer Relations on 1300 346 821 8am to 6pm (Sydney time) or visit our website www.pendalgroup.com |
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20 Sep 2022 - Around the world in 200 Meetings, Trent Masters: Tech Outlook
Around the world in 200 Meetings, Trent Masters: Tech Outlook Alphinity Investment Management August 2022 Within the tech sector, the delineation in terms of performance between the winners and the losers in the current environment is becoming clear. What are the key elements that depict the winners and losers? Trent discusses the fundamental themes from his two recent trips to the US which were structured around two technology conferences - the Morgan Stanley conference and the JP Morgan Conference. Speakers: This information is for adviser & wholesale investors only. |
Funds operated by this manager: Alphinity Australian Share Fund, Alphinity Concentrated Australian Share Fund, Alphinity Global Equity Fund, Alphinity Sustainable Share Fund Disclaimer |
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20 Sep 2022 - Wins, losses and expectations
Wins, losses and expectations Eley Griffiths Group September 2022 Australia was a relative outperformer posting moderate gains compared to the retreats staged by major global equity markets in August. The month began on a positive note with equities surging upward after the eagerly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print announcement came in below expectations. The "risk on" exuberance was short lived after several U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) voting members made headlines that a Fed pivot was unlikely and that further rate rises were needed to dampen inflation. Toward the end of August, the month's steadily accrued gains took a blow with the Fed Chairman's hawkish rhetoric at Jackson Hole confirming the Fed would continue its tightening policy until confident inflation is returned to target.
Overall, the domestic corporate reporting season scorecard shows result 'beats' trumped 'misses' verses expectations. Better than feared was bought, whereas downgrades were punished by the market. The season highlighted the deterioration effect higher than normal buffer inventories had on cash flow. Higher operational expenditure a consistent feature with both labour and material cost inflation. Finally, management outlook statements suggested that the consumer is still spending with no sign of slowdown yet. Funds operated by this manager: Eley Griffiths Emerging Companies Fund, Eley Griffiths Small Companies Fund |
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19 Sep 2022 - New Funds on Fundmonitors.com
New Funds on FundMonitors.com |
Below are some of the funds we've recently added to our database. Follow the links to view each fund's profile, where you'll have access to their offer documents, monthly reports, historical returns, performance analytics, rankings, research, platform availability, and news & insights. |
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abrdn Global Smaller Companies Fund | |||||||||||||||||||
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Cromwell Phoenix Property Securities Fund | |||||||||||||||||||
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Cromwell Direct Property Fund |
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Cromwell Phoenix Global Opportunities Fund | |||||||||||||||||||
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