NEWS
29 Oct 2016 - Hedge Clippings
Could we be misjudging the US election outcome?
We are less than two weeks away from the US election which will provide both a media frenzy, and likely decide all our futures. Sitting in Australia the feeling is that no one in their right mind would vote for a President Trump, but sitting in Australia we are not voting.
However, what happens if Trump wins? And could Trump be Hilary Clinton's greatest electoral asset, who based on Wikileaks reports might not be a perfect candidate anyway?
Is there the possibility that like Brexit, a combination of non-compulsory voting, voter apathy with conventional politics, and not being close enough to the detail, means that we are not in a good place to judge the outcome? Today's media seems to indicate that the unthinkable might actually happen.
Either way, Hilary Clinton has promised to raise taxes and spend $500 billion on infrastructure. Trump has promised to reduce taxes and spend double that on infrastructure. That will surely change the supply/demand ratio in the bond market, and send interest rates upwards.
In that environment what will happen to equities? The optimists are hoping that increased economic activity will generate sufficient growth to offset the increase in interest rates, while the doomsday merchants believe it's all going to come down to a case of tears before bedtime.
Remembering what happened when interest rates rose unexpectedly in 1987 - before the stock market crashed - even without the buildup of debt we have seen over the past 7 years, suggests caution will be the investor's best friend.
Pengana PanAgora Absolute Return Global Equities Fund rose 1.77% in September. The Fund continues to have a low systematic risk (beta) to the ASX200 and the MSCI World Indices of 0.08 and 0.09 respectively.
APN AREIT Fund returned -3.21% in September. The long term performance since inception remains strong with annual returns of 17.90% p.a.
Totus Alpha Fund returned -5.31% in September. Since inception, the Fund has an annualised return of 24.74% p.a.
Insync Global Titans Fund returned -1.75% in September, compared to the MSCI All Country World ex-Australia Net Total Return Index in $A, which returned -1.20%.
King Tide NZ/Australian Long/Short Equity Fund rose 1.83% in September and +23.77% over the latest 24-months.
FUND REVIEWS released this week: Qato Capital Market Neutral Long/Short Fund; Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund;
And on that note, have a great weekend.
Regards,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
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Registration to AFM is free and provides general information and performance data on Absolute Return, Hedge Funds, and Alternative Investments. |
Fund Managers and paid Subscribers have access to details on Individual Managers and Funds, with historical results, key performance indicators, latest news and performance reports. |
Prism Select provides self-directed investors and their advisors with factual information, performance data and opportunity to apply for funds online using OLIVIA123 . |
Tune into Sky Business on Foxtel every week at the new time of10:45 am on Friday's for AFM's weekly comment. |
Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.
28 Oct 2016 - Insync Global Titans Fund
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| Fund Overview | Insync employs four simple screens to narrow the universe of over 40,000 listed companies globally to a focus group of high quality companies that it believes have the potential to consistently grow their profits and dividends. These screens are size of the company, balance sheet performance, valuation and dividend quality. Companies that pass this due diligence process are then valued using dividend discount models, free cash flow yield and proprietary implied growth and expected return models. The end result is a high conviction portfolio of typically 15-30 stocks. The principal investments will be in shares of companies listed on international stock exchanges (including the US, Europe and Asia). The Fund may also hold cash, derivatives (for example futures, options and swaps), currency contracts, American Depository Receipts and Global Depository Receipts. The Fund may also invest in various types of international pooled investment vehicles. At times, Insync may consider holding higher levels of cash if valuations are full and it is difficult to find attractive investment opportunities. When Insync believes markets to be overvalued, it may hold part of its resources in cash, or use derivatives as a way of reducing its equity exposure. Insync may use options, futures and other derivatives to reduce risk or gain exposure to underlying physical investments. The Fund may purchase put options on market indices or specific stocks to hedge against losses caused by declines in the prices of stocks in its portfolio. |
| Manager Comments | The positive contributors for the month came from the Fund's holdings in Paypal, BAT, Diageo, Unilever and Visa Inc. The main negative contributors were Medtronic, Reckitt Benckiser, Mead Johnson Nutrition and Oracle. The Fund continues to have no foreign currency hedging in place as Insync consider the main risks to the Australian dollar to be on the downside. Over 50% of the fund is currently protected using their put protection strategy. Click below to read the latest Fund Manager Report. |
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28 Oct 2016 - King Tide NZ/Australian Long/Short Equity Fund
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| Fund Overview | The Fund seeks to outperform the market with less volatility than the market by allocating capital to a select group of eight to sixteen funds whose investment mandates allow them to use short selling of equities and equity indices, to use derivatives to manage risk, to use leverage and to hold large amounts of cash. In-depth proprietary research is used to select and monitor fund managers with particular emphasis on their ability to manage equity market risk through stock selection, short selling and the use of derivatives and cash. |
| Manager Comments | There were few changes to the Fund's portfolio composition over the month. They redeemed their positions in two funds, Aspiring and Kardinia, both of which had been in the fund since its inception. Two new long/short strategy fund managers were added to the portfolio. Both funds ticked many of the boxes that King Tide look for in a manager such as great track record, simple fundamental bottom-up strategy and low correlation to market returns. Click below to read the latest monthly report. |
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27 Oct 2016 - Fund Review: QATO Capital Market Neutral Long/Short Fund September 2016
QATO Capital Market Neutral Long/Short Fund
Attached is our most recently updated Fund Review on the QATO Capital Market Neutral Long/Short Fund.
We would like to highlight the following aspects of the Fund;
- Qato Capital is a Melbourne-based boutique fund manager backed by single family office, Larkfield Funds Management.
- Qato has a systematic, market-neutral strategy which invests exclusively in S&P/ASX 100 stocks.
- The QATO Capital's Q-score process captures and quantifies six broad fundamental factors, which assess multiple underlying sub-categories. Those companies with the top score (quality companies) are included in the "long" portfolio, those with the lowest score are sold short.
- The Fund seeks to preserve capital and maximises absolute returns through active and constant risk management, targeting monthly a net market exposure of 0% to hedge broader market risks through 30 S&P/ASX-100 positions (15 long & 15 short equally-weighted positions).
- Qato Capital's process is entirely systematic - stock selection and risk management are employed in a rules-based approach. The Fund employs no financial leverage/gearing to purchase securities, no derivatives, and no financial products to imitate leverage.
For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.
AFM Fund Review - September 2016 (pdf format)
27 Oct 2016 - Pengana PanAgora Absolute Return Global Equities Fund
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| Fund Overview | PanAgora believes the best way to find opportunities in the global markets is to combine fundamental analysis with robust quantitative techniques in order to filter the investment universe and select the investments. The Fund invests primarily in listed equity securities from a global universe of developed markets and a select group of emerging market countries. The Fund's objective is to seek absolute returns by identifying and exploiting multiple inefficiencies that may exist in global equity markets. These inefficiencies are primarily exploited through the use of a long/short equity strategy which aims to construct a portfolio that is generally neutral to market movements. As such the performance of the investment strategy is largely independent of the market's performance. The Fund seeks to achieve its objective by using a diversified set of strategies that have low correlation to one another. In addition, because many of these strategies are designed to generate profit under different market conditions, their combination is expected to result in more stable returns over time than any individual strategy in and of itself. |
| Manager Comments | The Fund's performance was driven by the strong performance of the long-term portfolio in the US and, to a lesser extent, internationally. The US sleeve of the long-term portfolio performed strongly due to the stock selection being effective in the Financials, Health Care, and Materials sectors. However, the intermediate and the short-term portfolios slightly detracted performance for the month, at -0.05% and -0.09% respectively. Click below to read the latest Fund Manager's Report. |
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26 Oct 2016 - Totus Alpha Fund
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| Fund Overview | The Fund is a long/short investment fund principally investing in listed entities, commodities, futures and options in Australia and internationally. The Fund is not a market neutral fund and accordingly may switch between net long positions and net short positions. The Fund may use short sales and derivatives. Gearing may be used to enhance returns and the Fund may be geared in excess of 100% of the Fund's Net Asset Value. There is a limit to net exposure of 150%. |
| Manager Comments | The September return was largely due to 3 things. First, a long position in TPG Telecom which downgraded earnings for the first time in 5 years. The Fund has since exited this position. Second, there was selling pressure in some of the sustainable yield long positions, so the fund trimmed down during the month. And third, strength in the resources and bank shares, in which the fund continues to hold short positions. At month-end, the fund had a net exposure of 21.1% and a gross exposure of 266.8%. The fund held 111 positions (56 long and 55 short) that were diversified across multiple investment themes. Top contributors were a short position in OFX Group and long positions in Challenger and Northern Star. Biggest detractors were a long position in TPG Telecom and short positions in BHP Billiton and Amaysim. Click below to read the latest Fund's Monthly Report. |
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25 Oct 2016 - APN AREIT Fund
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| Fund Overview | The senior management of APN FM all have significant experience in their fields. They include CEO Real Estate Securities, Michael Doble who has 25 years'experience having held various senior roles specialising in real estate valuation, consultancy and funds management. Immediately prior to joining APN in 2003 he was Head of Property at ANZ Funds Management. He is a fellow of the Australian Property Institute and FINSIA as well as holding a Bachelor of Business (Property). The Fund aims to deliver a competitive yield with lower risk than the market. The underlying stocks are selected based on a highly disciplined investment approach that focuses on the fundamentals and number of valuation approaches. The Fund provides access to a wide spread of property-based revenue streams that are specifically analysed, selected and weighted with the aim of delivering strong and sustainable income returns. The Fund is suited to medium to long term investors seeking a relatively high monthly income and some capital growth over the long term. |
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24 Oct 2016 - Fund Review: Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund September 2016
BENNELONG TWENTY20 AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES FUND
Attached is our most recently updated Fund Review on the Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund.
- The Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund invests in ASX listed stocks, combining an indexed position in the Top 20 stocks with an actively managed portfolio of stocks outside the Top 20. Construction of the ex-top 20 portfolio is fundamental, bottom-up, core investment style, biased to quality stocks, with a structured risk management approach.
- Mark East, the Fund's Chief Investment Officer, and Keith Kwang, Director of Quantitative Research have over 50 years combined market experience. Bennelong Funds Management (BFM) provides the investment manager, Bennelong Australian Equity Partners (BAEP) with infrastructure, operational, compliance and distribution services.
For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.
AFM Fund Review - September 2016 (pdf format)
22 Oct 2016 - Hedge Clippings
History might not always repeat itself, but it frequently rhymes
This week saw the 29th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. For those that can't remember, (or choose not to) or weren't around to experience it, on "Black Tuesday" October 20th the Australian market fell by 25%, following the DJIA's fall of 22% in the US the previous night ("Black Monday"). By the end of October '87 the local market had fallen by over 40%, and at its lows had recorded an overall drawdown of 50% (exciting the followers of Fibonacci along the way) from the highs it had reached in August of that year.
The actual catalyst for the crash can be traced back to a number of individual and varied events, including a storm in the UK the previous Friday which closed the London exchange and increasing tensions in the Middle East between the USA and Iran. However, the underlying causes were a combination of over-inflated valuations, excessive leverage, and debt, exaggerated by program trading during the crash itself.
Of course human traits such as fear and greed also exaggerated the problem, as they have in every boom and bust before and since, and no doubt will do so again in the future.
The problem in Australia was further exaggerated by the likes of Bond Corporation, Quintex, and Rothwells, where greed was alive and well, along with a complete lack of fear (at least when it came to playing with other people's money).
The same happened in 2008 and will happen again next time. In 2008 the local market fell over 45% between September and March 2009, and one could argue that the QE and easy credit response of central banks we have seen since could well be setting the scene for the bursting of the resultant asset bubbles.
Interestingly, or importantly, in 2008 almost one in four Australian hedge funds produced a positive annual result, with the average of all funds falling by less than half of the ASX 200.
The reality is that when asset prices become unreasonably inflated, for whatever reason, a series of potentially unrelated events can act as a catalyst for the end of the game. Whether the asset bubble is in equities, or real estate, or caused by corporate actions or central bank policy, the bigger the bubble, the louder the bang.
Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund returned 0.07% in September to take latest 6-months return to 9.06%.
APN Asian REIT Fund returned -0.70% in September, outperforming the Bloomberg Asia REIT Index which returned -1.53%, by 0.83%.
QATO Capital Market Neutral Long/Short Fund returned +1.23% for September, outperforming the ASX-100 by +1.21%, which returned +0.02%.
NWQ Fiduciary Fund returned +0.16% in September and +13.69% over the latest 24-months.
Touchstone Index Unaware Fund rose 0.47% in September to take latest 6-months return to 8.26%.
Affluence Investment Fund rose 0.59% in September to take the annualised performance since inception to 10.95% p.a.
KIS Asia Long Short Fund rose 1.45% in September taking the return for the most recent 12 months to 16.55%.
FUND REVIEWS released this week: Optimal Australia Absolute Trust; Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund; Pengana Absolute Return Asia Pacific Fund;
And on that note, have a great weekend.
Regards,
Chris
CEO, AUSTRALIAN FUND MONITORS
Connect with me on LinkedIn Twitter Facebook
|
Registration to AFM is free and provides general information and performance data on Absolute Return, Hedge Funds, and Alternative Investments. |
Fund Managers and paid Subscribers have access to details on Individual Managers and Funds, with historical results, key performance indicators, latest news and performance reports. |
Prism Select provides self-directed investors and their advisors with factual information, performance data and opportunity to apply for funds online using OLIVIA123 . |
Tune into Sky Business on Foxtel every week at the new time of10:45 am on Friday's for AFM's weekly comment. |
Australian Fund Monitors are helping to raise awareness to support research into prevention and cure for cerebral palsy. For more information visit www.cpresearch.org.au or contact me by email.
21 Oct 2016 - Affluence Investment Fund
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| Fund Overview | The Fund does not invest directly into any asset class, rather, it invests in investment managers which satisfy Affluence Funds Management's investment criteria; its investment philosophy is based on a formula developed by CEO/Portfolio Manager Daryl Wilson since the start of his career in 1999. The Fund targets total returns of at least 5% above inflation over rolling 3 year periods with volatility of returns less than 50% of the ASX200 Index. The Fund also aims to provide investors with a distribution yield of at least 5% p.a. Finally, the Fund aims to outperform the Australian stock market (S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index) by at least 5% in any year in which that index delivers a negative return. To ensure appropriate diversity of managers and limit the potential for conflicts of interest, no more than 20% of the Fund will be invested with any one manager. Affluence seeks to achieve the Funds' investment objective by choosing attractively priced investments overseen by quality managers. The Fund uses a number of processes to identify potential investments including quantitative screens for investments which meet historical performance, volatility and other criteria. They also use a number of external researchers and information sources to assist in this process. |
| Manager Comments | Of the Fund's 25 unlisted fund investments, 16 provided positive returns. The Affluence LIC Fund was the biggest positive contributor to performance, with other strong results from the Cromwell Direct Property Fund, the Microequities Deep Value Microcap Fund, and the Smallco Broadcap Fund. The largest detractors were the Totus Capital Alpha Fund and the Auscap Long Short Australian Equities Fund. In September, the Fund invested into two new funds, the KIS Capital Asia Long Short Fund and the Heathley Direct Medical Fund No.1. The unlisted funds represented 60% of the portfolio. The Fund's exposure to 23 listed investment companies and 5 other listed entities, represented 24% of the portfolio. The rest of the balance (16%) was held in cash. Click below to read the latest Fund Manager's report. |
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