NEWS
31 Aug 2018 - Hedge Clippings, 31 August 2018
There was plenty of teeth gnashing this week over Westpac's "out of cycle" mortgage rate rise, including from the new PM and his equally new treasurer. It's always amazing how banks are to blame when rates rise, while the politicians of the day (ok, they last a little longer than a day, but you never know) take the credit when rates fall.
While banks are fair game when they misbehave, mislead ASIC (ok that was NAB and AMP, but same, same), charge clients fees for no service etc., what is essential is that their basic operations - i.e. the margin between their cost of funding and the rate they charge their customers - are profitable. Note we didn't say fair and reasonable!
So if their funding costs (particularly offshore) are increasing, the obvious result is that mortgage rates will rise as well. We're in a global village, and the banks' offshore funding sources - estimated to be 35% - are global as well.
Given that rates have been so low for so long, and that we've seen US rates rise (and about to do so again), there should be no surprise that eventually they will increase. There have been plenty of warnings. The problem is that while rates may be moving up, and lending practices have been tightening over the past 12 months, the banks have been falling over themselves for the previous 8-10 years to shovel credit onto the willing consumer, thereby driving up household debt to record levels, and helping to fire the furnace under residential property.
Of course consumers should shop around, but that won't help them much, simply because the other banks and lenders will follow suit sooner rather than later. And while the RBA cash rate may not shift off its current floor of 1.5% for a while, with US rates tipped to rise as soon as next month the only way from here is up.
Meanwhile back to the Hayne Royal Commission: Amidst all the drama and revelations from the HRC over the past six months, what has been amazing is the sheer volume of intelligence that the Commissioner and his Counsel seemed to have lined up to skewer some hapless witness or another.
It stands to reason that much, if not most of this would have been sourced from the regulators - ASIC and APRA, and the FOS. Which begs a question: If the regulators had the information, why weren't they able to line the naughty boys and girls up themselves?
Was it the system, the regulations, a lack of resources, a lack of intention, or what?
Hedge Clippings' most likely answer is that many in the financial services sector treat ASIC and APRA, the corporate cops, the way most motorists treat the highway patrol (until they need them). There would seem to be an attitude of "get away with what you can, when you can, and hope you don't get caught". Australians have a long history - dating back to the earliest days of the first fleet - of having a well-honed disregard for regulations and authority. Maybe it's all just a game to see how far you can go.
That's worked up until now. The HRC should lead to some miscreants facing criminal prosecutions - and the resulting time in the sin bin that may well follow!
31 Aug 2018 - China - no hard landing - yet
31 Aug 2018 - Performance Report: Quay Global Real Estate Fund
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Fund Overview | The Fund will invest in a number of global listed real estate companies, groups or funds. The investment strategy is to make investments in real estate securities at a price that will deliver a real, after inflation, total return of 5% per annum (before costs and fees), inclusive of distributions over a longer-term period. The Investment Strategy is indifferent to the constraints of any index benchmarks and is relatively concentrated in its number of investments. The Fund is expected to own between 20 and 40 securities, and from time to time up to 20% of the portfolio maybe invested in cash. The Fund is $A un-hedged. |
Manager Comments | Quay have been satisfied with their investees' results throughout reporting season. Most of the Fund's investees are meeting or exceeding Quay's expectations and lifting guidance. They highlight the sharp decline in new home sales in the US (an eight month low) as rising construction costs and higher interest rates reduce affordability. Quay see that this is an indication the environment is ripe for the residential accommodation sector. They're beginning to see this play out in recent results, with Multifamily/Apartment REITs reporting a clear improvement in rental growth occupancy. Quay believe that the industrial sector is the most likely real estate sector to be impacted by trade and tariffs. However, the Fund's exposure is relatively small due to near euphoric valuation and a clear surge in new supply, particularly in the US. |
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31 Aug 2018 - IS VALUE INVESTING DEAD?
31 Aug 2018 - Launch Press Release
30 Aug 2018 - Performance Report: Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund
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Fund Overview | The Fund is managed as one portfolio but comprises and combines two separately managed exposures: 1. An investment in the top 20 stocks of the markets, which the Fund achieves by taking an indexed position in the S&P/ASX 20 Index; and 2. An investment in the stocks beyond the S&P/ASX 20 Index. This exposure is managed on an active basis using a fundamental core approach. The Fund may also invest in securities expected to be listed on the ASX, securities listed or expected to be listed on other exchanges where such securities relate to ASX-listed securities.Derivative instruments may be used to replicate underlying positions and hedge market and company specific risks. The companies within the portfolio are primarily selected from, but not limited to, the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index. The Fund typically holds between 40-55 stocks and thus is considered to be highly concentrated. This means that investors should expect to see high short-term volatility. The Fund seeks to achieve growth over the long-term, therefore the minimum suggested investment timeframe is 5 years. |
Manager Comments | As at the end of July, the Funds weightings were increased in the Industrials, Telco's and REIT's sectors, and decreased in the Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, IT, Energy, Financials and Materials sectors. The Fund's top holdings include CBA, BHP, Westpac, CSL, Reliance Worldwide, ANZ, NAB and Aristocrat Leisure. The Fund combines a passive investment in the S&P/ASX20 Index and an actively managed investment in the S&P/ASX ex-20. The passive position is achieved by investing individually in each of the ASX20 Index's Individual stocks with approximately the same weightings they represent in the S&P/ASX300. Currently, this weight is approximately 60% of the Fund's portfolio. The active position in ex-20 stocks aims to allow the Fund to outperform the broader market. |
More Information |
29 Aug 2018 - Performance Report: 4D Global Infrastructure Fund
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Fund Overview | The fund will be managed as a single portfolio of listed global infrastructure securities including regulated utilities in gas, electricity and water, transport infrastructure such as airports, ports, road and rail as well as communication assets such as the towers and satellite sectors. The portfolio is intended to have exposure to both developed and emerging market opportunities, with country risk assessed internally before any investment is considered. The maximum absolute position of an individual stock is 7% of the fund. |
Manager Comments | The 4D Global Infrastructure Fund rose +1.38% in July, outperforming its benchmark by +0.67% and taking annualised performance since inception in March 2018 to +11.70%. The strongest performer for July was Indonesian toll road operator Jasa Marga, up +12.2% for the month. The weakest performer was Chinese infrastructure conglomerate Shenzhen International, down -11%. Read their latest report for their thoughts on the markets over the past month. |
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28 Aug 2018 - Performance Report: KIS Asia Long Short Fund
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Fund Overview | Whilst the Fund's primary strategy is focused on long/short equities, the ability to retain discretionary powers to allocate across a number of other investment strategies is reserved. These strategies may include, but not be limited to: convertible bond investments, portfolio hedging, equity related arbitrage, special situations (e.g. merger arbitrage, rights offerings, participation in international public offerings and placements, etc.). The Fund's geographic focus is Asia excluding Japan, but including Australia). The Fund may invest outside of this region to the extent that: 1. The investment decision is driven from the Asian region or; 2. The exposure is intended to mitigate risk or enhance return from factors external to the Asian region. |
Manager Comments | The KIS Asia Long Short Fund rose +0.42% in July, taking annualised performance since inception in October 2009 to +13.11% versus the ASX200 Accumulation Index's +7.81% per annum. This return has been achieved with an annualised volatility of 5.19% versus the Index's 11.53%. The Fund has demonstrated a strong focus on downside protection; Sortino ratio of 4.28 versus the Index's 0.60, and down-capture ratio since inception of -95.13%. A negative down-capture ratio indicates that, on average, the Fund has achieved positive performance in the market's negative months. |
More Information |
27 Aug 2018 - Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund July 2018
BENNELONG TWENTY20 AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES FUND
Attached is our most recently updated Fund Review on the Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund.
- The Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund invests in ASX listed stocks, combining an indexed position in the Top 20 stocks with an actively managed portfolio of stocks outside the Top 20. Construction of the ex-top 20 portfolio is fundamental, bottom-up, core investment style, biased to quality stocks, with a structured risk management approach.
- Mark East, the Fund's Chief Investment Officer, and Keith Kwang, Director of Quantitative Research have over 50 years combined market experience. Bennelong Funds Management (BFM) provides the investment manager, Bennelong Australian Equity Partners (BAEP) with infrastructure, operational, compliance and distribution services.
For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.
24 Aug 2018 - Hedge Clippings, 24 August 2018
Where's the leadership we deserve?
At a time when the government needed leadership, unity and stability, the combination of personal ambition and the desire for revenge delivered exactly the opposite. Irrespective of who one believed should be in the top job, the country deserved better, and only time will tell if it gets it.
Personalities, and personal ambition, and in our view a misreading of the mood of the majority of people in the street, has resulted in the running of the country put to one side, while a bunch of self-centered politicians have indulged themselves, in just the same way as their predecessors did.
The real tragedy is that the economy, while not booming, is sound and growing, employment is growing, inflation and interest rates are low (probably too low) and taxation, except for the "big" end of town, is coming down. The federal budget is forecast to make it back to a surplus way ahead of forecast, and given the potential change of government at the next election, that's probably now in doubt.
If there's one good (?) thing to come out of the debacle in Canberra it's probably that the chief destabiliser and those pulling the strings didn't win, although they'll no doubt be happy enough they've dispatched the one person - now the previous PM - they didn't want to win. The question is will they now be satisfied and pull their heads in, or will they work to destabilise another moderate?
If there's one good (?) thing to come out of the week's media focus it is that the Hayne Royal Commission wasn't on the front pages.
Meanwhile AMP's appointment gets out thumbs up - experience and ability, and hopefully prepared to make the changes necessary - or enforced by the HRC and future legislation. Hedge Clippings has previously been critical of both AMP and David Murray, but this is a good and smart move. However, there's still a long, long way to go.