ARCO ABSOLUTE TRUST (formerly Optimal Australia Absolute Trust)

AFM have released the most recently updated Fund Review on the ARCO Absolute Trust.

We would like to highlight the following aspects of the Fund;

• ARCO Investment Management is a specialist Australian equity investment manager and the Fund has a long/short equity strategy typically with a low but variable net market exposure comprising 40 to 65 stocks broadly selected from within the ASX200.

• The investment team comprising George Colman, Peter Whiting, and Stephen Nicholls bring 100 years combined experience in equity markets.

• The Fund has an annualised return since inception of +8.00%. The Fund's approach to risk is shown by the Sharpe ratio of 1.31 (Index 0.32), Sortino ratio of 2.71 (Index 0.36), both of which are well above the ASX 200 Accumulation Index and has recorded over 77% positive months.

For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.

Australian Fund Monitors

ATTACHED FILESAFM Fund Review - June 2018 (pdf format)

Last week's deadline for - and subsequent introduction of - the tit for tat trade tariffs on $34 billion of goods between the US and China seem to have come and gone without the end of the economic world as we've come to know it, but to be fair it is probably much too early to tell how this will play out. It may only be 0.1% of their respective GDP's, but the fact that the so-called "Chimerica Trade" is estimated to approach 40% of the global total puts it into perspective.

Meanwhile The Donald has moved on to Europe, using his "stable genius" negotiation approach to resolve NATO's funding future, before hopping across the English Channel to give some (we imagine unwelcomed) advice to Theresa May, while adding that he "gets along with her nicely" and thinks she's "a nice person".

At this point in time we haven't heard her response - on or off the record - and we're also not sure if Donald has yet worked out why he feels unwelcome in the "London he used to love".

Meanwhile back at home the Hayne Royal Commission has advised it will shortly be turning its attention to superannuation funds which must fill the 30 or so lucky directors due to take the stand come August 6^th with trepidation. Hayne will be looking at such uncomfortable aspects as "acting in the best interest of members, not unions, employer groups or shareholders", and has requested they provide papers of board meetings and sub-committees stretching back five years.

Leading up to this, Commissioner Hayne will no doubt be getting to know the Productivity Commission's 570 page report on the $2.6 trillion superannuation sector, which itself was pretty scathing, but with his added powers and the glare of the lights on the witness box, there should be more headlines in store.

Not, however, too many surprises!  The "for profit" sector funds consistently underperform,  and lest the "industry funds" think they're going to be getting off lightly, there will no doubt be all sorts of uncomfortable questions around cosy deals with unions, a lack of appropriate knowledge and expertise at board level, not to mention their ongoing refusal to appoint independent directors. We wonder why?

It is inconvenient timing therefore that an unfair dismissal case against Australian Super, alleging conflicts of interest and cosy related-party deals, is currently making the news. Or the report we saw recently that estimated that with lower fees the $2.6 trillion currently in super would be worth closer to $3.4 trillion.

No wonder the SMSF sector is so popular, even if some funds with lower balances are uneconomic. At least their trustees get to make their own decisions, and pay for their own mistakes.

Trying to predict the eventual outcome of the looming trade war between the US and China is about as difficult as trying to predict Donald Trump's next policy announcement. However, a reasonable prediction would be that neither side enjoys losing face, and therefore is unlikely to back down at the first hurdle.

For those that have missed it at 2 PM today America is due to slap a 25% duty on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, ranging from machinery to electronic parts. As night follows day Tit is liable to follow Tat, meaning that China will immediately respond with equivalent tariffs focused on American farm goods.

While $34 billion seems a fair chunk to Hedge Clippings, they only represent about 0.1% of GDP for both the Titter (the US) and the Tatter (China). However the real risk lies in the Donald's approach to negotiation, and we would imagine China's approach to backing down. Assuming both parties perform as expected by most pundits, as opposed to how each hopes the other will react, it seems pretty likely that tensions, the damage to each country's economy, will increase.

However the US economy is in a very different place to China's, with a strong stock market, improving growth, and bond rates that in spite of dire predictions, and inevitable Fed tightening, seems not to have upset the apple cart (yet). Growth in the second quarter of the year is likely to exceed 3.5% annually, and unemployment is falling. Apart from the trade war, the major risk seems to be that there will in fact be an eventual outbreak of inflation, currently just above the FED's target of 2%.

Conversely, in China the equity market has fallen 20%, and the authorities are grappling to control credit. Over the past 20 years, having become the world's factory and having exported deflation as a result, a nasty trade war with the US could be the trigger to signal the end of the miracle.

Meanwhile, we assume the economy of all other countries, including Australia, caught in the crossfire will be considered collateral damage, although depending on who sides with whom, and who can negotiate what, will depend on the eventual outcome.