NEWS
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24 May 2019 - Hedge Clippings | The excitement's over, now back to work!
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20 May 2019 - Monday Hedge Clippings - Better late than never!
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3 May 2019 - Hedge Clippings | 03 May, 2019
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26 Apr 2019 - Hedge Clippings | 26 April, 2019
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12 Apr 2019 - Hedge Clippings | All eyes on the Federal Election. It's the economy, stupid!
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5 Apr 2019 - Hedge Clippings | Impending election, RBA uncertainty and ASIC's sharpened teeth
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29 Mar 2019 - Hedge Clippings | Yield inversion and the "R" word
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22 Mar 2019 - Hedge Clippings | 22 March 2019
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15 Mar 2019 - Hedge Clippings | Talking, talking, talking. Sooner or later you've got to walk the walk.
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8 Mar 2019 - Hedge Clippings | 08 March 2019
The see-saw equity market has been making things difficult for fund managers over the past 6 months - they found the last quarter of 2018 tough enough as the market tanked under the pressure of US investors' reaction to 10-year bond rates at 3.25%, and locally the side effects Hayne Royal Commission. Subsequently the ASX rebounded 6% in February as 10-year US bond returns retreated to yield 2.75%, just as many fund managers reset their portfolios to be more defensive and risk averse.
Of course not helping markets are the multiple geopolitical and associated economic issues they're facing: Brexit is getting closer and closer to the wire without a solution; Europe's economy is slowing partly as a result of Brexit, and partly due to China's slowdown; Trump's mega arm wrestle with Xi isn't going as well as he'd like to tweet, with evidence that it is hurting the US economy as well and possibly as much as China's; and finally the Donald might be realising that negotiating with Korea is not as easy as simply comparing and bragging about the size of his button.
While on the subject of China, an article today on Bloomberg's "Five Things To Start Your Day" (well recommended if you don't already receive it) citing the exodus of Chinese property buyers as the main cause of the property downturn in Australia (having bid it up in the first place), and elsewhere around the globe. Whilst that may be a major reason, so is the banks' tightening of loan eligibility (or possibly just applying what was there in the first place) along with the impending end of 5-year fixed-term interest-only mortgages being switched to principal and interest loans; low wages growth, in turn leading to poor retail sales figures as consumers' confidence is eroded and they pull their collective heads in.
For the property market it is somewhat of a perfect storm, and coming at the end of an extended period of double digit annual growth, bound to fall further. Whilst not property experts, Hedge Clippings would suggest the worst for the property market is not over yet, particularly with the imminent potential of a change in government, and with it the introduction of restrictive negative gearing rules amongst other goodies.