Hedge Clippings | Friday, 06 November 2020

"It has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time...." So said Winston Churchill on Armistice Day in 1947.

But Churchill's quote also included:

"Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise."

Isn't that the truth!

And while we accept that the US system is democracy in action, one would have thought it is not what George Washington and his fellow founding fathers quite had in mind way back when they created the Constitution. They obviously hadn't allowed for Donald Trump, who, irrespective of one's liking or disliking of his policies, seems to be playing by his own rules.

It's been wall to wall, and minute by minute on the news channels, and if nothing else has pushed COVID, record low interest rates, and a record loss by the Wallabies to the inside pages. In the case of the Wallabies, thankfully so.

Amongst all the commentary and humour, we think this one sums it up best:

"A new analysis by some guy on Twitter has found that Donald Trump would have been re-elected with an overwhelming majority if none of the votes for Joe Biden had been counted."

You can read the full text here.

So there's nothing much that Hedge Clippings can really add to our comments of last week - namely that the polls might be incorrect, the result seemed to be up in the air, and that a tie or contested result wasn't out of the question. The sad reality is that whatever the result, the USA, as "leader" of the democratic world, will be at best divided, and at worst...

Back to interest rates, but more importantly to their "QE" program - namely buying $100 bn. of government bonds ($80bn Federal, $20bn State) over the next six months. While the new ultra-low rates won't make much difference to borrowers once the banks do/don't pass all the savings on, from the perspective of a depositor there doesn't seem to be much of a case for leaving any money in the bank. Unless of course you're worried about loss of capital.

While caution is required when reading glitzy ads (for example Mayfair 101 as reported by the AFR's Jonathan Shapiro) there are good opportunities to get both a reasonable return with acceptable risk. Check out www.fundmonitors.com.

We're living in strange times, and a strange economy. Major exports are under threat from China, who seem intent on punishing Australia for not kow-towing when told to, and having the temerity to have an independent opinion.

Domestic and regional tourism however seems to be going gangbusters, and with the opening up of state borders (more or less) likely to make up for much of the loss of overseas tourists.

Meanwhile Europe, and much of the rest of the world, continues to suffer with little end in sight to a long (indoor) winter.

As the old Chinese curse goes, "May you live in interesting times".

News & Insights

Video interview with Richard Ivers from Prime Value

ESG INSIGHTS Biden's most critical investment by Nikko Asset Management