NEWS
8 Jul 2024 - Down-trading Megatrend
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Down-trading Megatrend Insync Fund Managers June 2024
Funds operated by this manager: Insync Global Capital Aware Fund, Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Disclaimer |
5 Jul 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 05 July 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 05 July 2024 This week we're going to start on politics, and then move on to the economy - or more specifically the outlook for inflation and interest rates. This is partly because last week's Hedge Clippings only touched on the US Presidential Debate as it was still underway as we were putting the finishing touches to our commentary, and partly because we underestimated how badly Biden had performed. We did comment that "early indications were Biden faltered badly on occasions," whereas it turns out even he admitted (finally) that it wasn't his greatest performance. You can say that again! Based on current polling it looks as if Trump (assuming Biden doesn't take the hint and pull out) will be heading back to the White House in early November, complete, thanks to a stacked Supreme Court ruling that gives a President immunity from prosecution for official acts while taken in office. On the face of it, that appears somewhat bizarre, but we have to admit we don't fully understand either US constitutional law (i.e. what constitutes "official") or, if it comes to that, the American political landscape. If we did understand the latter we'd be able to explain how a country, and a democratic one to boot, of 330 million people, only has a choice between Sleepy Joe - aged 81 and showing every bit of it - or the Donald - a convicted felon, confirmed philanderer, and well known golf cheat. The really unfortunate side of the lack of choice is that competition is good - and Trump in particular needs a strong opponent to keep him honest - or at least to call out his more dishonest claims. Assuming Trump wins in November, expect the unexpected. At least there'll be plenty of material for us on a weekly basis! Meanwhile the UK's initial election results are in, and the pollsters seem to have been absolutely spot on the money - much like Rishi Sunak's staff, who somehow thought it would be smart to have a punt on the date of an early election. In politics, much like any other confrontational battle, disunity is death. The fact that the Conservatives went through four Prime Ministers in five years, (Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and finally Rishi Sunak) resulted in the inevitable. Given that Theresa May (PM 2016 - 2019) achieved some economic success (falling national debt, record employment, and income tax cuts for 32 million people) one could argue that her predecessor David Cameron has a lot to answer for by announcing a divisive and avoidable Brexit referendum dividing the nation (sound familiar?) and promptly quitting once the result was in. Although yesterday's election result was overwhelmingly in favour of a change of government, only time will tell if the UK's many problems are reversible, or if the downhill slope of the past 10 or more years can be reversed. Closer to home, Albo won't have been pleased with the distraction of one of his (now ex) senators crossing the floor, and subsequently leaving the government, just when he was wanting to focus on tax cuts for all, energy relief for all, and wage rises for all lower paid workers. We're not against these moves, but we doubt the RBA would have been overjoyed by their potential inflationary effects at a time that they're trying to curb demand, and tame inflation. The RBA would have been more pleased by household spending data released today by the ABS which showed an increase over 12 months to May of just 0.1%, with services up +2.3% while spending on goods fell -2.5%. Household spending has been trending down since September 2022, and when combined with June quarter CPI and retail trade data both due on the 31st of July will be a key part of the mix when the RBA next meets on the 6th and 7th of August. It will probably be too early at that stage to see the effects of the government's tax cuts and income support, but also too early to hope for a rate cut. News & Insights Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management Bull and bear case for Australian shares in the New Financial Year | Airlie Funds Management May 2024 Performance News |
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5 Jul 2024 - Sustainable buildings: Beyond solar panels and water tanks
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Sustainable buildings: Beyond solar panels and water tanks Janus Henderson Investors May 2024 According to the World Green Building Council, buildings and construction are currently responsible for 39% of global energy related carbon emissions: 28% from energy required for heating, cooling and electricity, and the remaining 11% from embodied carbon i.e., materials and construction. As Australia seeks to build more houses to address the current shortage, in addition to ongoing activity in commercial infrastructure, more needs to be done to help the construction industry reach net zero. Energy related carbon emissions are the easiest to tackle with many energy efficient initiatives and the use of renewables for electricity generation available. However, the biggest headwind facing this sector is embodied carbon. The availability and scalability of low-carbon materials remains a challenge as the industry is in a nascent stage. Supply is limited and the cost is high compared with traditional raw materials. As the industry works through the 'hard to abate' sectors, such as cement and steel, there are some ways to make buildings more sustainable now. These include the use of:
What can investors do to help?The Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest team has identified 'sustainable buildings' as one of its 'People and Planet' themes and buys 'use of proceeds' green bonds, sustainability bonds and bonds of issuers where capital is directed to improving energy efficiency in homes and creating more sustainable buildings. To improve our country's infrastructure and make our buildings more sustainable, collaborative efforts from a variety of stakeholders will be required. While state governments are likely to do some of the heavy lifting through increasing industry standards at the time of initial build and through their own housing projects, industry can also play a part. Regardless of which parties are involved, these projects require funding. Investors can play a role by putting their capital towards such projects through investing in funds that invest in this sector. In addition to investing in these bonds, Janus Henderson's Australian Fixed Interest team has a role to play through our active engagement. By having conversations with issuers and offering them support to come to market, we seek to increase the supply of public debt that has proceeds directly linked to creating more sustainable buildings. We also discuss climate targets with issuers in engagement meetings we conduct. State GovernmentsOn 1 October 2023, New South Wales (NSW) was the first state to introduce the 'Sustainable Buildings SEPP' which aims to reduce water usage and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across NSW. This new regulation, applicable during the construction of buildings, applies to both commercial and residential buildings (excluding three climate zones and apartment buildings up to five storeys). The new standards require: Commercial Buildings:
Residential Builds:
While it is likely that other states will enhance regulatory requirements on new builds, this is not something investors can direct capital towards. However, through the states sustainability frameworks, there is often capital being used for improving energy efficiency in homes. Of note is Treasury Corporation of Victoria's sustainability bonds which has an asset pool with a large weighting towards 'Victoria's Big Housing Build'. Over half of the pool is dedicated to the building of 12,000 new 7-star energy rated social houses. In addition, the Victorian government issues grants towards solar homes, which includes grants for panels, solar hot water, batteries, and household energy efficiency upgrades. The following projects are identified in the Victorian and NSW sustainability frameworks, from which their sustainability bonds are issued. Victoria sustainability framework
NSW sustainability framework
UniversitiesSome of the universities across our country are leading the way on sustainability. La Trobe University and University of Tasmania are two such examples, both of which have issued green bonds which we hold in our Sustainable Credit Fund and across other strategies. In terms of our targeted theme 'Sustainable buildings' they are participating in the following ways: La Trobe University plan to use 100% renewables by 2029, with 30% of their requirements being self-generated through the installation of solar panels on their roofs, and the building of a solar farm adjacent to their Bundoora campus. They are focused on reducing their carbon footprint through energy efficient building upgrades and a minimum 5-star green rating for all new builds. With new buildings they use cross laminated timber (CLT) which reduces embodied carbon compared to traditional methods. The benefits of CLT are that it is renewable, so throughout its growth it is capturing carbon. During the construction process it requires less water, energy and fossil fuels, resulting in a lower carbon profile. The timber is fabricated to a specific size so there is less waste when creating the material and given the pre-fabricated nature of the project it allows for quick build times, again reducing energy for the build. At end-of-life, CLT allows for simpler demolition with less construction waste and more opportunities for reuse/recycling of the materials. La Trobe have also committed to replant multiple trees for every one tree that is removed during the clearing for a new building. University of Tasmania is moving its Sandy Bay campus into the Hobart CBD. Already certified carbon neutral since 2016, the $550m project (which runs through to 2030) presents a significant opportunity to further contribute to decarbonisation. The university aims to reduce the upfront embodied carbon in its building program through the utilisation and adoption of low carbon construction practices and materials (including low carbon cement /concrete, CLT, recycled materials etc). The capital raised from their green bonds is being used to finance campus buildings, targeting a 20% or better reduction in upfront carbon emissions, relative to industry standard. As to the achievability of this target, the university's building projects in the north of the island, had achieved emissions reductions in the low 30%'s. Wider adoption of such innovative practices will be a game-changer for the broader Australian construction industry, and a significant positive as it relates to achievement of longer-term economy-wide emissions reduction commitments. Real estate investment trustsReal estate investment trusts (REITs) are large owners and builders of real estate, and therefore are key players in building, upgrading and maintaining sustainable buildings. Development and management property group Mirvac pride themselves on their sustainability credentials. Their climate targets include zero waste to landfill and net positive carbon (Scope 1-3) and water by 2030. Mirvac states they are committed to using sustainable and low-carbon materials in new developments. They are actively engaged in selecting low-carbon and sustainable materials for their construction projects such as recycled content, responsibly sourced timber, and low-carbon concrete alternatives, and promoting the use of recycled and renewable materials. Mirvac also incorporates sustainable design principles into projects to minimise embodied carbon. This includes optimising building layouts to maximise energy efficiency, using passive design strategies, and integrating renewable energy technologies to reduce reliance on carbon-intensive energy sources. While we like this issuer's overall sustainability framework, accessing 'use of proceeds' bonds that direct capital to specific green projects is more challenging. As it stands, they only have non-green bonds in Australian currency, with the lone green bond on issuance being in Hong Kong Dollars. While arguably a laggard to Mirvac, but still exhibiting strong ESG credentials, Vicinity Centres also aims to be net zero by 2030 (achieving a 41% reduction since 2016). They have recently invested $73m to deliver Australia's largest solar installation program across their shopping centres, and in FY21 managed to recycle 51% of their total generated waste. Investors can access direct investment in the sustainable buildings theme through Vicinity Centre's green bond which was issued in May 2022. The proceeds of this bond were used to finance projects and assets in line with their Sustainability Finance framework (and qualify as eligible under ICMA's Green Bond Principles). This includes financing or refinancing buildings with a minimum 5-star NABERS energy rating or above, of which they have three eligible assets including one which holds the highest rating possible (6 stars). The Banks' green and sustainable bondsMany of the banks (including the 4 majors and smaller banks such as Bank Australia, Bendigo Bank, and RACQ) are now offering, at a discount, 'green mortgages and loans' for customers. The proceeds of the loan are to be used to buy and install eligible small-scale renewables such as solar panels, battery packs and electric vehicle charging stations at the property. To fund these loans and mortgages they usually become a part of the assets pool in the bank's green bond and/or sustainable bond program. Commonwealth Bank of Australia for one has also offered up 'green' term deposits for institutional investors. ConclusionProgress towards building and upgrading more sustainable buildings can be helped along by investors willing to allocate capital to this space through:
Author: Liz Harrison, Fixed Interest Strategist - ESG |
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Funds operated by this manager: Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund, Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional, Janus Henderson Cash Fund - Institutional, Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund, Janus Henderson Conservative Fixed Interest Fund - Institutional, Janus Henderson Diversified Credit Fund, Janus Henderson Global Equity Income Fund, Janus Henderson Global Multi-Strategy Fund, Janus Henderson Global Natural Resources Fund, Janus Henderson Tactical Income Fund
This information is issued by Janus Henderson Investors (Australia) Institutional Funds Management Limited (AFSL 444266, ABN 16 165 119 531). The information herein shall not in any way constitute advice or an invitation to invest. It is solely for information purposes and subject to change without notice. This information does not purport to be a comprehensive statement or description of any markets or securities referred to within. Any references to individual securities do not constitute a securities recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Whilst Janus Henderson Investors (Australia) Institutional Funds Management Limited believe that the information is correct at the date of this document, no warranty or representation is given to this effect and no responsibility can be accepted by Janus Henderson Investors (Australia) Institutional Funds Management Limited to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. All opinions and estimates in this information are subject to change without notice and are the views of the author at the time of publication. Janus Henderson Investors (Australia) Institutional Funds Management Limited is not under any obligation to update this information to the extent that it is or becomes out of date or incorrect.
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4 Jul 2024 - Nothing Wrong With Big Super Funds
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Nothing Wrong With Big Super Funds Marcus Today June 2024 |
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For most Australians, picking individual stocks and maintaining stock market vigilance is a passionate hobby. But what if you don't have the time? What if you just want to look after money, not make money? What if you need something more passive? What if you don't want to step onto the stock market battlefield, get distracted from your metier, and take risk?Well I have some good news. There is nothing wrong with that Big Super or Industry Fund that you are already invested in.Almost everybody has Super and for those of you that want a peaceful life, undisturbed by share market volatility and requiring only marginal vigilance, you need do no more than stick with the structure that most of you already have. That is to say, leave your money tucked in one of the large superannuation or industry funds because there is nothing wrong with that, for a number of reasons:
Author: Marcus Padley |
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Funds operated by this manager: |
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3 Jul 2024 - When the equity markets are misjudging risk focus on what you can control
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When the equity markets are misjudging risk focus on what you can control Redwheel June 2024 |
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The concept of risk should be simple and straight forward, yet it repeatedly seems to get twisted upside down and back to front, causing bubbles and crashes. For investors, it is the coupling of human behaviour and risk systems that are the root cause of such outcomes. Today, when seven stocks account for 20% of global indices[1], risk seems to have been turned on its head yet again. As excessive valuations and concentration risk in global benchmark indices continue to increase, how can equity investors navigate this environment? We believe the answer lies in accepting what you can control and what you can't. Investors can't control valuations, but they can target income in market conditions where dividends have historically made outsized contributions to total returns. Three quotes that explain how risk can be turned on its head For investors, risk is inseparable from return; both are predicated on an unknowable future. Hence, the risk-free return is usually the lowest: the greater the certainty of future outcomes, the lower both the risk and return. In general, accepting the risk of an uncertain range of future outcomes is necessary to generate a return higher than the risk-free rate. However, it does not guarantee such a return - that's why it is called risk! Therefore, one should strive in an investment process to allocate capital for a range of future outcomes where the probability is skewed towards a favourable return. Naturally this won't always result in a positive outcome. We get things wrong and/or it can take longer to generate a return. The challenge obviously is to get it right more often than not. However, there can be times when, despite leaning the statistics in one's favour, performance can remain sub-par for a period. A coin toss is 50/50 but you can still get a run of heads. Howard Marks wrote, "...human nature makes it hard for many to accept the idea that the willingness to live with some losses is an essential ingredient in investment success". [2] Within active equity management, relative underperformance is "hard for many to accept" despite being "an essential ingredient in investment success". The reasons why are multi-faceted, yet at the kernel of it is a catch created by our own industry. Active managers assume risk in order to generate decent returns. Clients are then told to measure the success of this risk return approach by comparing the outcome to a benchmark. It is therefore assumed that active managers take risk while the benchmark is risk free. Most of the time this makes sense. Within equities, markets are typically rational and accurate at allocating capital, and the risk reward is skewed favourably. However, there are periods where irrationality can take a hold. Benjamin Graham, mentor to Warren Buffett, said: "In the short-run, the stock market is a voting machine, in the long-run, it is a weighing machine". The "weighing" of risk reward becomes replaced by emotion or "voting". It is usually at these times of excessive greed or fear that the benchmarking system turns on its head. In extreme conditions, underperformance becomes magnified and it becomes "hard for many to accept the idea .... to live with some losses". When the herd mentality creates a concentrated market, being different from such a majority feels increasingly wrong. It's at these times, when pressure on fund managers is greatest, that career risk is highest. It's also during these periods that risk systems are most likely to drive investors to move closer to the herd, to the benchmark, in order to reduce the risk of further relative "losses". Yet it is exactly at these times that the understanding of risk is turned on its head. Given the extreme valuations in the benchmark, it is there that the risk is greatest. Despite this, investors are encouraged by emotion and risk systems to invest in the benchmark in an attempt to reduce risk! In the words of Oscar-winning actress Geena Davis: "If you risk nothing, then you risk everything". By trying to reduce risk, you generally succeed only in increasing it. Global equity markets carry considerable risk Right now, equities are a prime example of this inverted appreciation of risk. Once again, the market has become concentrated. A narrow part of the market has created a highly concentrated market. US equities now account for c.70% of the MSCI World index, up from c.30% back in the late 1980's (when as an aside, Japan was c.45% of the MSCI World and is now c.6%!). [3] Within that US dominance, the Magnificent 7 account for c.20% of the MSCI World on their own. Of the S&P 500, the Mag 7 [4] account for c.30% of the index [5], yet only account for 18% of the index's earnings, evidencing the premium valuation applied to these stocks. [6] The chart below illustrates how the market has historically disregarded valuation at extremes (when "voting" takes over), increasing both concentration and risk in the benchmark.
Source: Ken French Data Library, CRSP database, 07/31/1961 - 12/30/2023. Stocks separated into Top Price/Earnings minus Bottom Price/Earnings. The information shown above is for illustrative purposes. Past performance is not a guide to future results. Whether it's the Nifty Fifty bubble in the 1970's or the Magnificent Seven bubble today, the market has repeatedly marched a narrow cohort of the market to excessive valuations, only to see them crash. Yet, it is at these highs and lows, when emotion is dominant, that the pressure is greatest to join the herd. During times of exuberance, when valuation is no longer a concern, investors that follow the benchmark are practically betting on rising valuations. The valuation multiple reflected by the benchmark moves significantly over time, as illustrated by the chart below.
Source: Bloomberg, Redwheel 22 April 2024. The information shown above is for illustrative purposes. Past performance is not a guide to future results. The chart shows that the aggregate price to earnings (P/E) of the S&P 500 since 1960 has spanned a low of 8x to a high of 30x. Today the S&P 500 is above one standard deviation from the average over this period, driven primarily by just seven stocks. The valuation can be influenced by an almost inexhaustible list of things - sentiment, psychology, media, macro events, interest rates, politicians, wars and many more - but it can't be controlled. Despite this, at the extremes when the pressure is greatest to join the herd, investors are simply betting that the valuations will keep rising. Effectively, they are betting on something that is beyond their control, which continues to increase risk while they attempt to reduce it. The chart below demonstrates this well. It shows the maximum drawdowns and upswings in the Redwheel Global Equity Income Strategy (USD) since re-launch in December 2020, compared to the same for the MSCI World index (USD).
Source: Bloomberg, Redwheel 22 April 2024. The information shown above is for illustrative purposes. Past performance is not a guide to future results. *Please see the disclaimer at the end of this document for further information on the Representative Portfolio. It shows clearly that the moves have fluctuated more in the index than in the strategy. For the most part, the strategy lags during the upswings, but outperforms during the drawdowns. Yet, because the benchmark is seen as lower risk by risk management systems, and due to our own encouragement as an industry, adhering to the benchmark to reduce risk after a period of relative underperformance typically achieves the complete opposite. Focus on what you can control: durable dividends The chart below shows how the periods where emotions ("voting") dominate fundamentals ("weighing") can drive changes in the composition of total returns.
Source: Source: Bloomberg for S&P500 / Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table/by-month 31st December 2023. The information shown above is for illustrative purposes. Past performance is not a guide to future results. The chart shows the rolling 10-year returns (USD) for the S&P 500. One can see that the composition of the total return over the rolling 10-year periods changes meaningfully. Sometimes capital return dominates, sometimes the dividend return. The capital return is driven by earnings growth and the multiple applied to those earnings (valuation), which as discussed earlier, are beyond investors' control. However, the dividend return can be controlled. Active managers can invest in companies that aim to deliver durable dividends. Those dividends can then be reinvested to compound a return to drive the total return over time. Of note from the chart above, is that the cycle of the composition of total returns over rolling 10-year periods tends to correlate with the current valuation (Shiller Cyclically Adjusted P/E - CAPE) at the start of the period. The higher the starting valuation, the greater the probability that the next 10 years' total return will be driven by the dividend component, the lower the starting valuation and it is the capital that will likely dominate. Thus, in the current market, where valuations are high, where the last 10-year period has been driven by capital gains, where concentration has once again peaked, many investors are being encouraged by emotions and risk systems to herd into the most uncontrollable, more volatile aspect of total returns to reduce risk! Instead, we believe investors should be focusing upon what is achievable, what is within their control: durable dividends, compounded over time. The less volatile path over time. This is what the Redwheel Global Equity Income Strategy is focused on to deliver robust total returns over time. We focus on what we have a degree of control over: dividends and the yield we get on them.
Source: Redwheel, Bloomberg, 31 March 2024 ,USD Dividend yields should drive total returns from here Since resuming the strategy at Redwheel, already the income contribution is greater than the market[1], despite compounding that income at a far lower rate than the market. [7] That is because of the higher starting yield. Given where risk really resides today, we believe that over time, the capital return element of the strategy will normalise in line with the market, allowing the compounding of dividends yields to drive long-term outperformance. Today's relative losses reflect our "willingness to live with some losses [as] an essential ingredient in investment success". However, it is precisely at times like today when it is most appropriate to invest in a strategy like ours that focuses on what can be controlled, rather than the benchmark, where risk has been turned on its head. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Redwheel China Equity Fund, Redwheel Global Emerging Markets Fund |
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[1] Source: Factset end of March 2024. [2] Howard Marks, Fewer Losers, or More Winners? Memo September 2023. [3] Source: Factset end of March 2024. [4] Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet), Tesla, Facebook (Meta), Nvidia and Apple [5] Source: Factset end of March 2024. [6] Source: Factset end of March 2024. [7] MSCI World Net TR index Key Information |
2 Jul 2024 - Bull and bear case for Australian shares in the New Financial Year
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Bull and bear case for Australian shares in the New Financial Year Airlie Funds Management May 2024 |
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It's coming to that time of year when equity market strategists and the financial media will start issuing their forecasts for the performance of the stock market in FY25. Airlie's view is to ignore them. Their predictions (like most predictions) are usually wrong.
Despite all these events, global equity markets have risen. The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation index (which includes dividends) has delivered a total return of 47% or 8% per annum [1]. In Airlie's view, the past five years have shown that buying and selling stocks based on a view of the market's impending movements is a fool's game. In this article, Airlie avoids predicting where the market is going to be in 12 months and instead focuses on three reasons for investors to be bullish on Australian equities in FY25 and three reasons to be bearish. BULL CASE FOR AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES1. Corporate balance sheets in good shape Many Australian investors have lived in a period of declining and ultra-low interest rates. Before the RBA's first interest-rate hike in May 2022, the public had not experienced an increase in interest rates since November 2010, and that cycle only saw the cash rate increase from 3% to 4.75%. To find a rate-hiking cycle of equivalent magnitude today, investors would have to go back more According to Airlie, the rise in interest rates over the last two years could be seen as a reminder for investors of the opportunity cost of capital and the value of conservative capital structures. Airlie's view is that when rates were low, debt was considered 'free' and helped prop up risky companies as investors chased greater returns in speculative companies, while other companies were encouraged to take on large amounts of debt to fund acquisitions and growth with no consequence of increasing financial risk. This era of 'free money' is over and balance sheets now matter. Airlie's view is that corporate balance sheets across the ASX 200 in general look in good shape. The chart below shows the leverage ratio of the average industrial company in the ASX 200 today versus previous economic cycles. At less than 1.0x Net Debt/EBITDA, corporate balance sheets look healthy to Airlie. Airlie considers this suggests that Australia's largest companies could be well placed to handle any adverse bumps the economic cycle, competitors or internal issues may throw at them.
2. Domestic profit pools often supported by a handful of players The grocery sector, where two major supermarket chains account for about 65% of the market. Contrast this with the UK, where the top two grocers account for 43% of the market, and the US, where the four largest supermarket chains have a combined share of 34% [2]. The banking sector, where the four major banks account for over 70% of the home-loan market in Australia [4]. Airlie's view is that this concentration can potentially be a positive for investors in large-cap Australian equities in that they can put their money behind industry-leading companies that have a low risk of being disrupted by competition. Historically these businesses tend to have a track record of stable returns and market-share gains versus their smaller rivals. 3. Australia's place in the world only getting better When we look through a global lens, Australia has a lot going for it - a beautiful place to live, a safe, strong rule of law, and high-quality education. In Airlie's view, even the much-grumbled-about house prices still means some people can buy a house and not a shoebox apartment in capital cities. Australia continues to attract people and capital, both providing a long-term tailwind for the economy. This is best reflected in Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data (see charts below) showing that compared to pre-COVID-19, an additional 1.35 million people are employed in the country (a 10% increase) [5]. This compares favourably to other developed economies like the UK, where the total labour force has increased by just 1% over the same period [6]. Airlie's view is that growth in employed persons translates directly into spending and this has provided a tailwind for Australia's consumer-facing sectors despite cost-of-living pressures. Total retail sales have increased by 30% over the last five years [7]. According to Airlie, the looming tax cuts for individual workers in Australia in FY25 are likely to bolster retail spending and support those companies relying on the domestic consumer.
THE BEAR CASE FOR AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES1. Valuations for publicly listed companies have re-rated higher In Airlie's view, higher company valuations reduce the prospect of near-term upside for investors. The rally in equity markets over the past 12 months reflects a level of optimism about 'peak' interest rates and the need to see further evidence for the market to continue re-rating higher. The ASX 200 is currently trading above its long-term median Price Earnings multiple of 14.6 times [8]. This suggests to Airlie that companies in general are valued positively and it's clearly not the "cheap" market Within this aggregate, however, there may still be individual businesses that look attractive, and investors could have to dig for mispriced opportunities.
Source: Factset 2. High cost of living is gaining political attention In Airlie's opinion, concentrated domestic oligopolies can potentially be good for investors. But in an environment where consumers are under pressure, some oligopolies could come under threat from politicians. For example, there have been recent accusations of profiteering levelled at the domestic supermarkets. Airlie would not be surprised if the government turned its attention to other concentrated sectors, so as to be seen to be tackling the cost-of-living crisis. Even if there is no immediate change to regulation of these sectors, Airlie 3. Stick Inflation In Airlie's view, interest rates may well remain elevated, or worse - they may even increase in the coming year. The optimism embedded in sharemarket valuations is predicated on a narrative of peak rates. Any evidence of inflation persisting above the RBA's target range of 2-3% may lead investors to reprice securities lower to reflect a higher cost of capital. To date, the Australian economy has been strong with elevated migration and record-low unemployment supporting demand. And on the supply side, the cost of the energy transition and the restructuring of global trade (away from China) could continue to act as inflationary forces that may well be structural. ConclusionWhile Airlie doesn't have a crystal ball for what 2025 will have in store for the Australian sharemarket, we believe investing in companies with strong balance sheets, and that are market leaders with pricing power, may help drive returns over the long term. Author: Vinay Ranjan Funds operated by this manager: [1] FactSet - ASX 200 total return 5 years to 3 May 2024 Important Information: Units in the fund(s) referred to herein are issued by Magellan Asset Management Limited (ABN 31 120 593 946, AFS Licence No. 304 301) trading as Airlie Funds Management ('Airlie') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to an Airlie financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4760 or by visiting www.airliefundsmanagement.com.au. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of an Airlie financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Airlie makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Airlie. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. Any third party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Airlie claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks. Any third party trademarks that appear in this material are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. No affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from the use of these trademarks.. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Airlie. |
1 Jul 2024 - Performance Report: ASCF High Yield Fund
[Current Manager Report if available]
1 Jul 2024 - Glenmore Asset Management - Market Commentary
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Market Commentary - May Glenmore Asset Management June 2024 Equity markets were stronger in May. In the US, the S&P 500 rose +4.8%, whilst the Nasdaq was also very strong, up +6.9%. In the UK, the FTSE rose +1.6%. Of note, more than half of the S&P 500's gain was due to four mega cap tech stocks (Nvidia +26%, Apple +13%, Microsoft +7%, and Alphabet +6%). On the ASX, the All-Ordinaries Accumulation Index materially lagged the US indices, rising +0.9%. Technology was the top performing sector (assisted by strong results from Xero and Technology One). Banks also performed well, due to a better than feared reporting season. Telecommunications was the worst performer, dragged down by the underperformance of Telstra. Economic data released from the US in May was generally softer than expected: GDP growth weakened to +1.3%, whilst the April jobs report was also lower than expected. Unemployment remained at 3.9% (almost a 50 year low). Fed Fund Futures are now pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. In bond markets, yields were relatively flat during the month. The US 10-year government bond rate declined - 6 basis points to close at 4.57%, whilst its Australian counterpart was stable, closing at 4.41%. Funds operated by this manager: |
28 Jun 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 28 June 2024
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Hedge Clippings | 28 June 2024 Like it or not, this week's inflation figures confirmed an unpleasant reality: The RBA is now closer to raising rates than cutting them. Although it was only the monthly number, inflation inched up in April to 3.6%, from 3.5% in March, but then jumped to 4.0% in May. Seasonally adjusted, May's number is a tad higher at 4.1%; excluding volatile items, such as fruit, veg and fuel, also came in at 4.0% (actually down 0.1%), while the Annual Trimmed Mean figure jumped 0.3% to 4.4%. The RBA's task (although out of their direct control) might be helped by figures released yesterday showing job vacancies falling 2.7% in May, and are now down 26% since their post COVID peak in May 2022. That's it for the hard numbers, but where does it leave the RBA? Let's put it this way, the narrow path is getting narrower, to the extent we'd say they're more like walking a tightrope. The challenge for the RBA is that they have a two speed economy, or two sections (at least) of it, each of which is affected differently in the current economic times. Those on lower incomes, or reliant on assistance of some sort, are feeling the pinch, so the government is "splashing the cash" to save them. Meanwhile, more fortunate sections of the community, such as those with higher incomes, or possibly baby boomers enjoying the fruits of their previous labour, or those with the good management or fortune to have paid off their mortgage, have spending patterns that are relatively unaffected by inflation of 4%. So while the RBA is aiming on taming persistent inflation using the only tool at their disposal - trimming demand to match supply - their task is being made more difficult by a government that is trying to soften the inflationary blow, particularly for those less well off, and those hurting as a result of that inflation, including higher mortgage or rental costs, and sky high power bills. Hence Canberra's support for across the board wage increases for 2.6m lower paid workers, and tax cuts and power subsidies for all, each of which kick in from next Monday. In its effort to please those doing it tough, the government is not helping the RBA. Rather, it is helping to fuel inflation, whether it be via tax cuts or income support. That may be helping some people, but it is not helping the RBA. We were always taught that things work best when everyone pulls on the same rope, and in the same direction. This looks more like they're pulling from opposite ends. Which takes us back to the old saying, which according to the Bob Dylan song, can be attributed to Abraham Lincoln: "You can please some of the people all the time, or all of the people some of the time, but you can't please all of the people, all of the time." The government's dilemma is not helped by the fact that there's a countdown to an election due either next May (half Senate) or in September for the House of Representatives. So pencil in sometime between now and 24th of May next year for both. Albo will be desperate not to risk being remembered as a one-term wonder, so it was notable that Treasurer Jim Chalmers was this week spruiking a second successive budget surplus under a Labor government, while carefully avoiding to mention the impending fiscal cliff thereafter. Don't rule out an earlier date if they see things getting stickier. Of course, as pointed out by the new RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser (a.k.a. the first central banker with a rare sense of humour) in this presentation to the Citi A50 Australian Economic Forum last night. While the board is limited to influencing demand via monetary policy, they take a wide range of data into account when making their decisions. First and foremost on the list though is inflation, so watch out for their next rate decision due on Tuesday 6th of August. By next week we may have a topic other than inflation and interest rates to consider. The first debate between Biden and Trump has just concluded, with early indications Biden faltered badly on occasions, but landed a strong blow with his accusation (presumably well practised) that Trump has the morals of an alley cat. Expect snippets of both to be repeated ad infinitum in respective TV ads between now and November. News & Insights 10k Words | Equitable Investors Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund May 2024 Performance News Digital Income Fund (Digital Income Class) Emit Capital Climate Finance Equity Fund Insync Global Capital Aware Fund Insync Global Quality Equity Fund |
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28 Jun 2024 - Performance Report: PURE Resources Fund
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