NEWS
20 Nov 2024 - Manager Insights | East Coast Capital Management (Trend friends and navigating uncertainty) )
|
Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Richard Brennan, Strategy Ambassador at East Coast Capital Management. The ECCM Systematic Trend Fund has a track record of 4 years and 10 months. The fund has outperformed the SG Trend benchmark since inception in January 2020, providing investors with an annualised return of 15.09% compared with the benchmark's return of 6.97% over the same period. Topics discussed include: the success of ECCM's trend-following strategy, which recently earned an award for the company's flagship fund; and how global diversification and a focus on trending opportunities can enable consistent performance even in uncertain economic conditions.
|
20 Nov 2024 - US Election 2024: How will markets and sectors respond?
|
US Election 2024: How will markets and sectors respond? Magellan Asset Management November 2024 |
|
Arvid Streimann offers an analysis of why Trump's victory was more decisive than predicted and the key issues that influenced voters' decisions. He provides insights into the market's reaction and shares his expectations for the next 12 months, highlighting which sectors are likely to perform better than others. |
|
Funds operated by this manager: Magellan Global Fund (Hedged), Magellan Core Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC, Magellan High Conviction Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Important Information: Important Information: This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 ('Magellan') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to a Magellan financial product may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4888 or by visiting www.magellangroup.com.au. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of a Magellan financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Magellan makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Magellan. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Magellan will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material. Any third party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Magellan claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks. Any third party trademarks that appear in this material are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. No affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from the use of these trademarks. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Magellan. |
The three factors driving stock returns (pdf format)
19 Nov 2024 - Performance Report: Argonaut Natural Resources Fund
[Current Manager Report if available]
19 Nov 2024 - Glenmore Asset Management - Market Commentary
|
Market Commentary - October Glenmore Asset Management November 2024 Globally, equity markets were weaker in October. In the US, the S&P 500 declined -1.0%, the Nasdaq fell -0.52%, whilst in the UK was down -1.54%. In Australia, the All Ordinaries Accumulation index declined -1.33%. On the ASX, the top performing sector was gold, supported by a +5% rise in the gold price. Banks also performed well in the month. Consumer staples were the worst performer, impacted by index heavyweight Woolworths (WOW) falling -10% following a weaker than expected 1H25 trading update. In bond markets, the US 10 year government bond yield rose +50 basis points (bp) to close at 4.28%, whilst its Australian counterpart increased +53bp to end the month at 4.51%. The main driver of the higher bond yields was market expectations of less interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Funds operated by this manager: |
18 Nov 2024 - New Funds on Fundmonitors.com
|
New Funds on FundMonitors.com |
|
Below are some of the funds we've recently added to our database. Follow the links to view each fund's profile, where you'll have access to their offer documents, monthly reports, historical returns, performance analytics, rankings, research, platform availability, and news & insights. |
 |
||||||||||||||||||||||
| Carrara Global Opportunities Fund | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
| View Profile | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Carrara Credit Portfolio | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
| View Profile | ||||||||||||||||||||||
 |
||||||||||||||||||||||
| Woodbridge Secured Income Fund | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
| View Profile | ||||||||||||||||||||||
 |
||||||||||||||||||||||
| Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
| View Profile | ||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Want to see more funds? |
||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Subscribe for full access to these funds and over 850 others |
18 Nov 2024 - Macro Research - AUD Outlook
15 Nov 2024 - Hedge Clippings | 15 November 2024
|
|
|
|
Hedge Clippings | 15 November 2024 Last week's Hedge Clippings noted that Donald Trump's election victory would lead to some predictably unpredictable outcomes. Earlier this week we met with Richard Grace, ex CBA economist, now principal of PinPoint Macro Analytics, who has kindly agreed to provide some economic muscle and rigour to our weekly view of the world. Richard's contribution is included below as a Fund Monitor's Insights Article, part of which is summarised below. We mentioned to Richard that Newton's Third Law tells us that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction--a concept that generally provides a sense of predictability. But Richard pointed out that economics and politics doesn't work the way of physics and that the effects of Trump's presidency is likely to be anything but predictable: Each of his actions is bound to provoke a reaction, but the direction and magnitude of that reaction remains anyone's guess. Since Donald Trump was re-elected on November 5th, the Australian dollar (AUD) has slipped about 3% against the U.S. dollar, now hovering around 0.6450. For those who remember Trump's 2016-2020 term, this drop might feel like déjà vu. His announced tariffs on Chinese and European goods back then strengthened the USD and put downward pressure on the AUD, and history seems to be repeating itself. Trump's proposed economic policies this time around are designed to boost the U.S. economy, but not without shaking up global trade relationships. He's planning to significantly increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 60% and on all U.S. imports from around 3% to 20%. If Congress allows these measures, the impact on global growth could be profound, especially as China struggles with a sluggish property market. For Australia, the road ahead may be bumpy, with the AUD facing further downside into 2025. The graph below illustrates the effect Trump's tariffs had on a handful of currencies during his last term in office - Meanwhile, over in Washington, Trump has assembled a headline-grabbing cabinet. His appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Department of Health and Human Services is contentious, given Kennedy's scepticism towards vaccines. The potential ramifications for U.S. health policy could create market uncertainty, especially in sectors like pharmaceuticals and healthcare. Adding another layer of unpredictability, Trump has put Elon Musk at the helm of a newly formed Department of Government Efficiency--tasked with slashing bureaucracy. Musk's call for "high-IQ revolutionaries" willing to work 80+ hour weeks for zero pay might seem like a joke, but it underscores the aggressive belt-tightening Trump is pursuing. Investors will be watching for signs that this approach could create a more efficient U.S. administration, but for now, it seems more noise than concrete benefits. In yet another controversial move, Trump appointed Matt Gaetz as the new attorney general. Gaetz, who has faced his share of controversies, including a past Justice Department sex trafficking investigation, now leads the very institution that once scrutinised him. This, much like Trump's broader cabinet reshuffle, introduces reactions that are difficult to foresee, adding to the overall unpredictability of the administration. As always, in uncertain times, there are opportunities. Trump's renewed focus on U.S. industry may boost certain sectors--infrastructure, for example--and that could provide selective investment opportunities. But for those watching from Australia, the emphasis should be on managing FX risk and monitoring how the dust settles, especially regarding China and resource exports. News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Macro Research - AUD Outlook | PinPoint Macro Analytics News & Views: Tariffs - the impact on infrastructure | 4D Infrastructure Megatrends for 2025 and beyond... | Magellan Asset Management October 2024 Performance News Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
|
|
If you'd like to receive Hedge Clippings direct to your inbox each Friday |
15 Nov 2024 - Performance Report: Altor AltFi Income Fund
[Current Manager Report if available]
15 Nov 2024 - Performance Report: Glenmore Australian Equities Fund
[Current Manager Report if available]
15 Nov 2024 - Making Millions In The Market 1987 Crash!
|
Making Millions In The Market 1987 Crash! Marcus Today October 2024 |
37 Years! Where Has That Gone!I started as a back-office clerk in the UK before transitioning to a trainee dealer role on the floor of the London Stock Exchange. It didn't take long to discover that I had a knack for it and developed a passion for the market. The early 80s brought significant changes under Thatcher, including the Big Bang in the City. These changes eventually led to my becoming a member of the London Stock Exchange in 1985 - two years before the crash. By that point, I had already spent eight years gaining experience in the market leading up to that fateful October.I had moved from broking to trading and became a senior option trader on the floor for a company called Smith Brothers, a venerable old Jewish stockjobbing firm. Smith Brothers eventually became Smith New Court and was later bought out by Merrill Lynch. As a senior trader, I was especially skilled at first-day trading in the recently privatised UK companies like Jaguar, British Airways, British Gas, and Rolls Royce. Shouting, screaming, and being quick with arithmetic was my forte, and I loved it..png)
The Calm Before the StormWe all knew that one day the game would be up and that all the fun we were having would have to be paid for. The piper always takes his wages. And talking of wages, the Big Bang in the City created yuppies. I was a Yuppie. Filofax in hand and even a Motorola Mobile phone. Yes, for those that can remember them they resembled a brick.Building Tension and Optimism in the MarketThat summer leading up to the crash worries started to emerge. We had the odd spasm but nothing more that tremors before the big eruption in October. Now at the time it was a heady party in the market and there was a belief that it was never going to go down. Every pullback was another buying opportunity. As an option trader it was money for jam. All the institutions did was sell us puts which ultimately went out worthless.We bought puts by the bucket load. Thousands of them. Now if you know option hedging if you buy a put you buy the stock to hedge it. You buy with a delta ratio. Not wishing to get too complicated, but the stock we bought kept going up and covered the loss from the puts that we had been buying. It was a simple strategy. Everyone was happy. Institutions figured that if the market slipped back and they had the stock 'put' on them they would be happy to be buying. After all the market only ever goes up, doesn't it?The Yuppie Boom and Soaring SalariesSo, the game continued. The instos earned extra income and looked very clever in the brave new world and option traders like me took on the risk and bought the stock. Salaries soared as profits rolled in. Privatisation gave everyone a stake in the new stock market bubble. My salary went from GBP1701 to GBP40,000 over that period.1700 pounds did not even cover my car loan when I started. Didn't even cover my season ticket so I worked for my father during the holidays on building sites and weekends to earn enough to eat and play in the City. With the increase in our salaries came a belief that we were invincible. We were early 20s and Masters of the Universe. All that was to end..png)
The Dutch ConnectionAt that time there were a lot of international traders in the London Traded Option Market (LTOM). The Dutch were there in force and I was pretty tight with my Dutch friends. They liked to party and had huge expense accounts to boot plus they knew options. They practically invented them. Think tulips. Anyway, the Friday before the Black Monday crash I was in Amsterdam having flown through the Hurricane that hit London the night before. Needless to say, I had a fabulous weekend in a great city with some lovely people. Sunday night I flew home and knew that we were in for a serious week. The market had been closed on the Friday as people struggled to work and tried to get through the physical carnage that had hit London.The Crash BeginsSo, there we were at Smith Bros, a bunch of young traders who owned all the puts. A lot of them were October puts (if the crash had happened week later things would have been different). We had a huge equity trading operation. It was not a big firm and the company was long. Seriously long going into the crash. With the new computerised trading that had just been brought in adding to the complications. After some crisis meetings, we were ready to take the floor like gladiators entering the arena. We knew it would be make or break for the company. And so, it began.The falls were mind numbing. We did not have computers in those days, so it was impossible to make prices on options and know your positions from minute to minute. The only thing we knew was that we were all very short. As prices plunged through the strike prices were got shorter and shorter. We had to buy stock to re-hedge our delta exposure and buy lots of it.You would think that buying stock would be easy in a crash. Just stand there with a buy pad and write out the slips. No such luck. Under our company rules we were only allowed to trade with our own equity market makers. So, a phone call, yes, they were phone calls, to the dealing desk in equities to buy 1m Rolls Royce shares was followed with a short sharp two-word sentence one of which was 'off'. We could not buy enough stock to cover our shorts.The equity market makers did not have the capacity to sell as much as we wanted and believed that a rally was imminent and there was no value in selling a spotty option trader 1 million Rolls Royce at the bottom. Of course, it turned out that it wasn't the bottom. FTSE 100 fell by 10.8% on Black Monday itself, and 12.2% on the following day.Profiting in the PanicWe made millions that week. Puts that were worthless were suddenly worth fortunes, everybody was buying puts to cover or we were buying as much stock as we could to hedge our position. It was frantic. I lost my voice and couldn't talk properly for the following week. Fortunes were made and lost that week and as usual we washed them down with the yuppie drink of choice, Bollinger. We were heroes. Just for one day.When the option trading team finished the first day, we walked up to the equity trading floor (remember it had all gone electronic by then) and were given a standing ovation. It was like winning the world cup. We walked amongst our peers swapping war stories and offer congratulations and sympathy. The upshot was the option traders had made a profit of GBP9.5m on that day. The rest of the firm had lost GBP9m. Smith Brothers was still in business. We had saved the firm. Bonuses all round.The Calm After the StormAnd so, the week unfolded. Day after day a similar story. My girlfriend at the time was away on business and a nightly phone call really didn't do it justice. Besides I was usually in the Arbitrageur Bar drinking and dancing on the ceiling.The only problem seemed to be that after the crash, no one else wanted to play anymore. Wounds were being licked. Traders were being let go and the world of the yuppie changed. 'Wall Street' came out and we had 'Bud Fox' and 'Gordon Gecko' to model ourselves on but it wasn't the same. For the following two years option traders in London came in every day and twiddled their thumbs me included. If someone wanted to trade the competition was so fierce that we also jumped on a buyer or a seller with enthusiasm. After two years of holding out and playing dumb games, I saw an ad in the FT for traders to come and trade options and derivatives in Sydney. My way out. And here I am 35 years later.What Lessons Can Be Learnt from All This?And how does it relate to the current market? (Updated slightly!)Well, it is pretty fully valued. Complacency is rife and we have some serious irrational behaviour going on. Trump Media But it does not feel like 1987. Things had got really out of control by then. Corporate leverage and balance sheets were stretched to the hilt and takeovers using scrip were rife. Deals were everywhere. Since then, of course we have had other crashes, mini crashes and the mother of all crashes the GFC. What differs from 1987 to 2008 was that the '87 crash was confined to the stock market primarily. It really didn't spill over to the real economy or jobs. It threatened to, but never really did. We had a recession we had to have (some years later) and house prices became the bubble and then crashed. Interest rates went through the roof. In the GFC everything was infected. The banks nearly collapsed and we were on the brink of another great recession. Luckily central banks stepped in and saved the day. Record low interest rates have saved us but have enslaved us through massive household debts. We are paying the price for that currently but house prices remain massively elevated!Final ThoughtsSo, will we see another crash? Yes of course we will. History does repeat. Will it be soon? I suspect that is unlikely given the low rates and the lack of alternatives. Will some bubble markets crash? Yes. Chip stocks may crash one day. Who knows? The one lesson that I learnt from that crash, and the subsequent ones, is avoid over leverage and have some cash around for those opportunities. The GFC and other crashes are rare events and when they happen, fortune favours the brave and the market gets irrational and traders throw everything out in the search for liquidity. It will happen again. That is why you must keep a buffer and have cash ready to be deployed to snap up those once in a lifetime opportunities. The investors that got seriously hurt were those that had massive leverage and had to sell at any price. The smart money bought. It is easy in these heady times to throw caution to the wind. Fear of missing out is real. Stick to your plan. Have discipline. Buy quality companies and have funds ready just in case. And finally, don't believe your own hype. Hubris is a dangerous thing. Pride does come before a fall. Everybody looks good in a full-on bull market but it's when the tide goes out, that we see who is not wearing any clothes as they say. Incidentally during the crash our index futures trader had a huge punt on the market bouncing and bought back all the short exposure we collectively had. He didn't tell anyone and hid his trade until Christmas Eve. Somewhat of a shock to find a massive multi-million-dollar loss that carried our bonuses down the Thames but that is a whole different story and one for another day. In there somewhere! Author: Henry Jennings |
|
Funds operated by this manager: |
.png)
