NEWS
1 Oct 2021 - Banning unvaccinated workers could impact our economy
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Banning unvaccinated workers could impact our economy Tim Hext, Pendal 22 September 2021 |
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THIS WEEK has been relatively quiet for bond markets, despite an attempt at excitement around China. I learnt long ago that little happens by accident in China. The government has the ability and the smarts to control what is going on. Letting Evergrande wobble is more about sending a message than a misguided step that will send the economy into freefall. Of course the usual chorus line of doomsdayers have lined up to predict just that. I am not one of them. Maybe eventually they do stumble, but you'll go broke betting on it long before then. The impact of banning unvaccinated workersOur attention is more focused on what is happening domestically - in particular the how and when of re-opening in NSW and Victoria. The area of concern for us is how unvaccinated workers are treated. The concern is less ethical - I will leave readers to their own views - but what it means for the workforce. If one in ten workers end up unvaccinated, whether for health or personal reasons, their potential exclusion will have a significant impact on the supply side of the economy. Most employers are currently awaiting government guidance, but until rapid testing is widely available it seems many will be banned from working. The demand side of the economy is likely to return quicker than the supply side. We are increasingly confident that 2022 will see higher - not lower - inflation and the RBA will be tested on its benign view. Wages should also pick up faster. Future inflation as measured by markets remains stuck around 2%, which to us provides an opportunity. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Pendal Total Return Fund |
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This article has been prepared by Pendal Fund Services Limited (PFSL) ABN 13 161 249 332, AFSL No 431426 and the information contained within is current as at August 11, 2021. It is not to be published, or otherwise made available to any person other than the party to whom it is provided. This article is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. It has been prepared without taking into account any recipient's personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, recipients should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness having regard to their individual objectives, financial situation and needs. This information is not to be regarded as a securities recommendation. The information in this article may contain material provided by third parties, is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be accurate as at its issue date. While such material is published with necessary permission, and while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in this article is complete and correct, to the maximum extent permitted by law neither PFSL nor any company in the Pendal group accepts any responsibility or liability for the accuracy or completeness of this information. Performance figures are calculated in accordance with the Financial Services Council (FSC) standards. Performance data (post-fee) assumes reinvestment of distributions and is calculated using exit prices, net of management costs. Performance data (pre-fee) is calculated by adding back management costs to the post-fee performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any projections contained in this article are predictive and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision or recommendation. While we have used every effort to ensure that the assumptions on which the projections are based are reasonable, the projections may be based on incorrect assumptions or may not take into account known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The actual results may differ materially from these projections. |
1 Oct 2021 - When selling, what's better than a monkey throwing darts?
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When selling, what's better than a monkey throwing darts? Spatium Capital September 2021 Professional investors often claim to share little with a retail investor. Professional investors or fund managers claim to be systematic, calm and measured in their approach to viable buying opportunities. Retail investors however, as numerous studies and research have shown, are prone to taking mental shortcuts to overestimate their investing abilities. They feel the pain of losses far more than the elation of gains (loss aversion) and often pay little attention to what a professional investor may deem critical information when making an investment decision. Whilst the misuse of these behavioural patterns may be distinct to the retail camp, readers may be surprised to note that in fact, there is a similarity at play. A recent academic paper Selling Fast and Buying Slow from the US National Bureau of Economic Research found that when it comes to selling, concentrated long-only fund managers might as well be as good as a monkey throwing darts. Fund managers claim to be experts in filtering the good from the bad. Put another way, a professional investor may claim to know which information is important to a company's inherent future value and which is just a headline grabbing tale. The effort required in finding the next best idea and identifying which of the available information is relevant does however come with time-sensitive and consuming pressures. Some great ideas for a portfolio may only have a short window to be capitalised upon, and if that horse bolts it may see months of work evaporate. Essentially, a great allocation of effort is focussed on creating the 'buy-side' thesis: Why is this a great company for the portfolio? What potential upside is on offer? The list goes on. Building a buy-side thesis is also a substantial part of the marketing journey of a funds management firm. The reality of running such a firm is that money often flows to those with the best stories to tell. Rarely would a fund manager be asked to discuss a company that they 'sold too soon', rather the conversations usually focus on new buy-side investment ideas. As the success of the firm is contingent on more money coming in than going out, cognitive resources are heavily skewed towards building the most interesting and viable buyside stories that are (hopefully) going to bring future benefit to the portfolio. This results in the sell-side of the equation often being left as an afterthought. Once a buy-side thesis has been accepted, the selling of a position(s) is largely considered administrative, i.e. it's viewed as a way to raise cash for these new purchases. The afterthought nature of the sellside is then starkly evident when we look at the academic research. When analysed from the 783 portfolios, each with an average of $573million under management, the research found that not only did these professional selling decisions fail to beat a no-skill random selling strategy, they also "consistently underperform[ed] it by substantial amounts". Momentarily shifting focus from the fund manager, the analyst is also an aficionado of the buy rating. A December 2016 study conducted by The Economist into analysts' ratings for the S&P500 found that of these companies, 49% were given a 'buy' or 'outperform' rating, 45% were given a 'hold' or 'neutral' rating and 6% were given a 'sell' or 'underperform' rating. Given that for 2016, approximately half of the S&P500 stocks underperformed and around 30% generated negative returns, this could be interpreted as a significant miss by these covering analysts. Especially as, by most considerations, 2016 was a relatively usual period for the US market. The difference here when comparing to a fund manager, is that an analyst's sell-side decision of a covering company may be motivated by ensuring that a positive relationship with the company management is maintained. As these job pressures may require an analyst to regularly cover an industry or sector, having access to the latest developments is often contingent on their relationships with those steering said sector(s). Perhaps Charlie Munger said it best, "show me the incentive, and I will show you the outcome." In conclusion, the same level of discipline required for buying should be applied to selling, irrespective of the commercial or marketing pressures applied. However, we live in the real world and with the above academic evidence, we know that this may not always be the case. Perhaps this can be a good test for the next time you prospect a fund manager or an equity analyst's rating of a company - ask them how they plan to exit their position or hand the dart to a monkey and see who hits the bullseye first. Funds operated by this manager: Spatium Small Companies Fund |
30 Sep 2021 - New Funds on Fundmonitors.com
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New Funds on Fundmonitors.com |
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Below are some of the funds we've recently added to our database. Follow the links to view each fund's profile, where you'll have access to their offer documents, monthly reports, historical returns, performance analytics, rankings, research, platform availability, and news & insights. |
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30 Sep 2021 - Crackdowns in China: Part 1
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Crackdowns in China: Part 1 Arminius Capital September 2021 No Arminius Capital fund has any direct exposure to Chinese equities. This is a deliberate policy: we can read the Chinese-language financial accounts of Chinese companies, so we know that these contain some of the most imaginative fiction outside the bestseller lists. But we want our investors to understand what is currently happening in the world's second-largest economy, so this is the first in a series of articles on the recent events in China. China's crackdown on its homegrown tech giants has triggered waves of confusion in the West. Some political commentators have criticized the Chinese government for undermining individual liberty, rewriting the social contract, and asserting the supremacy of Communist ideology in business and private life. Some financial commentators have claimed that Xi Jinping is destroying private enterprise and making China "uninvestable". Have these people forgotten that China is run by the Communist Party? Ever since it kicked out Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists in 1949, the Party has always asserted total control over everything in China. (Not to mention a lot of things outside China.) In October 2017 the 19th Party Congress repeated the words which Mao Zedong spoke in 1962: "In politics and in the military, in society and in education, in the north or the south or the east or the west, the Party is the leader of everything." The Party has 92 million members and they occupy all the positions of power in government. Businessmen often join the Party when young, and prudent businessmen always make sure that they have friends and patrons in the Party's hierarchy, not just by means of bribery, but also by longer-term methods such as shared ownership or employing the relatives of the elite. The Party does not care about Western values or the approval of Westerners. It has always had its own well-developed system of patriotic Marxist values. Its theories of dialectical materialism and scientific socialism tell it that history is on its side. This is why history is important to the Party, because history proves why the Party's actions are always right, and history shows that the Party is leading the Chinese nation on the true path to the future. The Party does learn from history: the collapse of the USSR in 1990 prompted the Party to carefully analyse what had gone wrong there and to make sure the same thing didn't happen in China. If you understand the Party's history, you can understand what the Party is doing. What is happening in 2021 is a "rectification campaign" (zhengfeng yundong), which is what the Party does whenever the leadership decides that "bad elements" of the Party or of Chinese society are misbehaving and need to be corrected. Xi Jinping led off his rule in 2012 by announcing "the great renewal of the Chinese nation", and his first rectification campaign was a nationwide anti-corruption crackdown, which proved very popular with ordinary people because it hunted down corrupt officials and punished them severely. The current campaign will not lead to a re-run of the Cultural Revolution. China is now too large and too complex for the leadership to organize another Cultural Revolution. The original 1966-1976 version was Mao's last throw of the dice to regain power, after the rest of the leadership had sidelined him in the wake of his catastrophic policy failures such as the Great Leap Forward. Indeed, China's economic czar Liu He has been at pains to emphasize that the Chinese government has not changed its support for the private economy and will not do so in future. Liu He pointed out that the private economy contributes more than 50% of tax revenue more than 60% of GDP, more than 70% of technological innovation, and more than 80% of urban employment. He stressed that China would continue to develop along the lines of a mixed economy - what Chinese planners call a "socialist market economy". Why is all this happening now? Because 2021 is the first year of the new Five Year Plan, which sets the top priorities for the Chinese economy. (We will explain these priorities later in the series.) Xi Jinping has revived the old Communist mantra of "common prosperity" (gongtong fuyu) and turned it into a set of principles to guide economic and social policy. A central theme of "common prosperity" is consumer protection. This is the motivation behind the assault on the homegrown tech giants such as Alibaba and Tencent, who have abused and exploited consumers by misusing the personal data which consumers have given to their platforms. (Much more about this later!) Another key theme is the reduction of inequality. The leadership is well aware that, over the last two decades, China has seen the emergence of huge disparities in income and wealth. In June 2020 Premier Li Keqiang noted that, out of China's 1400 million people, 600 million people - 42% of the population - earned less than $200 (1,000 renminbi) per month. Three quarters of these 600 million live in rural areas, and about one third of them live in China's less developed central and western provinces. (Source: Caixin 06 June 2020.) The announcement that the government will "regulate excessively high incomes" is not about robbing the rich to give to the poor. It is about reducing tax evasion. China's new rich have learned how to conceal income, how to re-arrange income across family members, and how to move assets to other jurisdictions. In the past, the central government did not have the skills or resources to pursue most of the miscreants, but - thanks to the experience and information gathered in the anti-corruption campaign - the tax collectors are much better equipped. The recent public shaming of some celebrities for tax evasion signals that this is now a top priority for the central government.
To be continued ... Funds operated by this manager: |
29 Sep 2021 - Fund Review: Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund August 2021
BENNELONG LONG SHORT EQUITY FUND
Attached is our most recently updated Fund Review on the Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund.
- The Fund is a research driven, market and sector neutral, "pairs" trading strategy investing primarily in large-caps from the ASX/S&P100 Index, with over 19-years' track record and an annualised returns of 14.79%.
- The consistent returns across the investment history highlight the Fund's ability to provide positive returns in volatile and negative markets and significantly outperform the broader market. The Fund's Sharpe Ratio and Sortino Ratio are 0.88 and 1.42 respectively.
For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.
AFM Fund Review - August 2021 (pdf format)
29 Sep 2021 - Reduce your risk and pick outstanding companies
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Reduce your risk and pick outstanding companies Emma Fisher, Airlie Funds Management September 2021 Despite the record reporting season past and the major wall of cash returned to investors this year, we at Airlie can't help but feel things in markets are a little gloomy. We believe that this is due to two sources of dismay.
In cutting through this doom and gloom we think it is important to talk about uncertainty and risk. It may seem obvious, but it is worth pointing out that uncertainty and risk are different concepts. We think the market is pretty bad at distinguishing between the two and punishes both evenly. Uncertainty is not knowing what is going to happen in the future. Put this way, you realise uncertainty is a fact of investing and ultimately a fact of life. In our view, uncertainty in markets creates opportunity. We're always looking for the uncertainty that may create a mispriced asset. What we don't like is risk. Risk is the chance of a permanent loss of capital and in our view, often comes down to two reasons:
At Airlie, we use a four-stage investment process tailored specifically to take advantage of uncertainty while minimising risk. #1 Focus on financial strengthStrong balance sheets The first place we always start is with a focus on the balance sheet. Making sure that the financial position of our companies is rock-solid is the first way that we limit the permanent loss of capital. These businesses can weather the storm of whatever markets throw at them and help portfolios perform through all cycles. When we consider the share market as a whole, it's important to note that balance sheet risk is much lower than it has been historically. Over the last few decades, net debt to EBITDA has had a median of 2.5 times. Right now it's much lower at about 1.9 times. This is a good sign. While we believe valuation risk is highly elevated right now, the lowered level of balance sheet risk is in essence telling us to proceed with caution at the moment. Heading into the GFC, both measures of risk were highly elevated. If you were to consider it as two signals - we had both lights showing red. Right now we see one showing orange and one showing green.
Self-funding businesses The other element of financial strength we like to consider is whether the business is self-funding its operations. This is simply because it has been proven that over the long term that these businesses outperform. They are able to fund their own growth profile through earnings and do not dilute shareholder capital. Alternatively, the businesses that are constantly tapping the market for equity to sell investors the dream and fund the business growth underperform, as seen below. #2 Don't overpayWhen investors reflect on the 2001 tech bubble, it is important to remember that it wasn't only tech stocks caught up in the hype. If you bought Disney, Coca-Cola or Walmart at their peak during that period, you would have had to wait 11 to 16 years to get your money back. Investing during peak periods is a real risk to a permanent loss of capital. Now we don't believe that we are at similar levels in the Australian market but we do see pockets of extremely optimistic valuations. As the risk-free rate falls, the multiples you have to pay for future cash flows increases. Right now markets have never been more expensive since yields have never been this low. In our view, if you're investing in the most expensive parts of the market, you're taking a bet against bond yields. And that's not a risk we are comfortable taking. #3 Buy quality businessesAt Airlie, we see quality businesses as those with a high return on capital. This is because, for every dollar that is earned by a business, a greater portion will be returned to shareholders and not lost in capital expenditures. The issue that unfortunately presents itself here, is that high-quality businesses can often be the most expensive. Therein lies the greatest challenge of this current market and what we look for in our investments - which are the quality businesses available at good prices. We believe there are three main reasons why a high-quality business may not trading at high valuations.
The best example of a past "jewel in the crown" business is Wesfarmers (ASX: WES). It was not until the demerger of Coles that Bunnings was able to shine as one of the best businesses in Australia. Bunnings generates a return on capital of more than 70%, so when Bunnings went from a third of WES' earnings to 70%, Wesfarmers re-rated. We believe a similar unlocking of value is happening with Tabcorp (ASX: TAH). We believe Tabcorp's lottery business deserves a very high valuation. This business has proven to be a resilient growth story over time. Their growth is underpinned by state monopoly licenses that run for decades in most states and an ever-increasing spend on lottery tickets online, meaning they no longer have to pay a commission to the newsagent. The issue is that the wagering division of the business proves to be somewhat of a problem child. The wagering arm doesn't offer the same attractive low cost of capital, and many investors who would be interested in the lotteries business do not want exposure to the gaming division. So the answer the company is pursuing here is a de-merger. We think in about a year's time Tabcorp will be worthy of a significant re-rate. #4 Find good managementThe final factor of focus in reducing risk is finding businesses with good management teams and founder-led businesses. We like these companies because it often means that management tends to focus on the long term, their interests are aligned with shareholders, and they are passionate about the business. An example of one of these businesses we are really excited about is PWR Holdings (ASX: PWH). PWR is also an example of a company we think is currently flying under investor's radar. Most of the company's revenue comes from selling cooling systems to motorsports companies. The founder and CEO, Kees Weel, started his business as a mechanic in the 70s. After a while, he decided he would give making radiators a try. Now, 40 years later, he's making the best radiators in the world and is the radiator supplier of every Formula One team. But it's not only the motorsports arm that excites us. In our view, the most exciting reason to own PWR is the growth happening in the emerging technologies division.
They are currently working on the development of cooling systems for electric vehicles. This is likely to be a huge secular growth area for the company over the next few decades. Additionally, the team is working with a number of exciting companies to develop cooling systems in aerospace and defence applications. The passion their CEO Kees Weel has for the business and his staff is why we love founder-led businesses. Earlier this year we had a chance to visit the PWR headquarters in the Gold Coast and at the first stop of our site tour, Kees presented us all with a copy of the company's yearly cookbook. Kees showed us the on-site cafeteria that had been built so that the welders and engineers could have healthy, freshly cooked meals for free. That sort of passion for the culture and experience of the team is really infectious and something we love to see in the companies we invest in. Summing it all upIn conclusion, we want to highlight the importance of the difference between uncertainty and risk. While we love uncertainty, like the doom and gloom we see in markets, we hate risk. In our view, these four factors are the key to reducing risk and creating long term wealth. Invest where fair value exceeds market price We identify Australian companies based on their financial strength, attractive durable business characteristics and the quality of their management teams. The above article is a summary of the recent webinar hosted by Matt Williams and I. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Airlie Australian Share Fund |
28 Sep 2021 - Performance Report: Laureola Australia Feeder Fund
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| Fund Overview | Life Settlements are resold life insurance policies and can be thought of as a form of finance extended to an individual backed by the person's life insurance policy. This financing is repaid upon maturity by collecting the death benefit from the insurance company. Risk mitigation measures implemented by Laureola include science-driven due diligence of policies, active monitoring of insured through a vertically integrated operation, and investor aligned fund design. |
| Manager Comments | Laureola noted they're very happy with that result given the Fund's size. The average size of the matured policies ytd is about $500k, 2/3rds the average size of the policies in the portfolio, which has had a small negative effect on performance. But, they noted, the number of policies is a strong indication that the portfolio is being managed properly, and also indicates that it is not due to luck or randomness. It highlights the quality of the posted returns: 75% of the total returns for the year have come from realised gains. |
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28 Sep 2021 - Performance Report: Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund
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| Fund Overview | The Fund is managed as one portfolio but comprises and combines two separately managed exposures: 1. An investment in the top 20 stocks of the markets, which the Fund achieves by taking an indexed position in the S&P/ASX 20 Index; and 2. An investment in the stocks beyond the S&P/ASX 20 Index. This exposure is managed on an active basis using a fundamental core approach. The Fund may also invest in securities expected to be listed on the ASX, securities listed or expected to be listed on other exchanges where such securities relate to ASX-listed securities.Derivative instruments may be used to replicate underlying positions and hedge market and company specific risks. The companies within the portfolio are primarily selected from, but not limited to, the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index. The Fund typically holds between 40-55 stocks and thus is considered to be highly concentrated. This means that investors should expect to see high short-term volatility. The Fund seeks to achieve growth over the long-term, therefore the minimum suggested investment timeframe is 5 years. |
| Manager Comments | The fund's returns over the past 12 months have been achieved with a volatility of 9.84% vs the index's 10.33%. The annualised volatility of the fund's returns since November 2009 is 13.71% vs the index's 13.23%. Over all other periods, the fund's returns have been more volatile than the index. The fund's Sharpe ratio has ranged from a high of 3.33 for performance over the most recent 12 months to a low of 0.85 over the latest 36 months, and is 0.75 for performance since November 2009. By contrast, the ASX 200 Total Return Index's Sharpe for performance since November 2009 is 0.53. Since November 2009 in the months where the market was positive, the fund has provided positive returns 97% of the time, contributing to an up-capture ratio of 128.82%. Over all other periods, the fund's up-capture ratio has ranged from a high of 144.85% over the most recent 24 months to a low of 124.9% over the latest 60 months. An up-capture ratio greater than 100% indicates that, on average, the fund has outperformed in the market's positive months. |
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28 Sep 2021 - Global small caps: From unrecognised growth to future global titans
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Global small caps: From unrecognised growth to future global titans Tobias Bucks and Simon Wood, Ausbil Investment Management September 2021 |
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Small companies offer the potential for growth that can exceed their larger peers over the long term, an assertion supported by the data. Small Companies offer investors early stage entry into names destined to become future global titans. Tobias Bucks and Simon Wood from Ausbil's global small-cap team answer some key questions on how to access such unrecognised opportunities. Q: Can you give us the elevator pitch for what you do? TB: We find global companies that are early in their stages of development, are not actively covered yet by the market, and have latent, unrecognised growth prospects with the potential for major rerates and sustainable unrecognised earnings growth. Finding uncovered 'gems', the names that offer what we call 'unrecognised growth' is where an active global investment manager like Ausbil can help investors take advantage of smallcap idiosyncrasies, while helping to reduce the typical level of risk that come with early-stage small-cap investing. We like global small caps because over the long-term, smaller companies consistently show outperformance against their larger peers, as evidenced in Chart 1 Chart 1: Small is beautiful: The compelling performance of smaller companies From Chart 1, since the inception of the MSCI indices in 2000, small companies have compounded well in advance of mid and large-cap peers. Over this twenty-plus years, small caps have risen by a factor of almost 6-times, mid caps buy almost 4-times, and large caps by the best part of 2.5-times. The outperformance of small companies has been shown consistently in the empirical long-term evidence provided by esteemed researchers such as Siegel (2015). Banz (1981) and Fama and French (1992), and in the market data. Q: Can you explain the term, 'unrecognised growth'? SW: Unrecognised growth is where a company exhibits the signs and potential for future earnings growth that is conceptually ahead of peers or the market in general, but for which there is no consensus as the company is not yet covered by a bevvy of institutional analysts. The company is 'unrecognised' because, due to size, it is yet to become large enough to warrant broad institutional coverage. Chart 2 illustrates how analyst coverage changes as companies become bigger. Global small caps operate in a 'sweet spot' of opportunity that has yet to be noticed or acknowledged by the institutional equity research machine. Chart 2: What 'unrecognised' looks like Ausbil's global small-cap team seeks the opportunities in the 231 developed markets in which we invest before any reliable institutional consensus has been established. In the case of some companies, there might be a consensus based on the views of a handful of analysts, as illustrated in Chart 1, but there is typically a significant divergence in views on valuation, opportunity and risk. The essential idea is that we focus on companies where growth will surprise, in companies that are attractively valued, and which we believe demonstrate relatively less risk in proportion to the opportunity. Combined with a lack of analyst coverage, forward surprise potential at attractive valuations reveals companies with unrecognised growth, which ultimately drives share prices. Q: Why do these companies go 'unrecognised' for a period of time? TB: Fast growing smaller companies are proving their business models, their sales and earnings can be volatile, and their businesses can be undiversified in terms of steady-state earnings. Institutions, like insurance companies which are not specialist small-cap investors, typically look for larger-cap equities with steady historical earnings, and more mature business models. However, large super and pension funds often carry significant allocations to small cap equities for the superior long-term returns they can offer in equity portfolios. Small companies, when the fundamentals are sound, the management is strong, and the business model is relatively unassailable, can offer upside potential for investors who are comfortable with riding-out shorter term bursts of volatility. From the sell-side perspective, small companies are often supported by specialist financiers, angel investors, cornerstone investors, large insider holdings and small broking houses in their early years, before they graduate into the bigger leagues and into larger capital raisings with larger investment banks. This creates significantly more opportunity for astute smallcap investors to participate in funding rounds for businesses that are on a trajectory for major growth, ownership transition events and other ongoing capital raisings and block trades that offer the potential to steadily build positions in companies with the potential to become the next global titans. Q: In your experience, what are the features of a good unrecognised opportunity? SW: Our fundamental and quantitative research seeks to unearth the unrecognised winners that have a high probability of earnings upgrades. Chart 3 illustrates how, to date, we have been able to consistently track ahead of the market on capturing earnings upgrades. Chart 3: Beating the consensus on identifying quality and upgrades There is no exact template for finding companies with significant unrecognised growth that are also in the process of exceeding market expectations on earnings growth, however there are some key elements that appear in the excellent examples we have found in the past. A great, unrecognised growth company often starts as a niche leader, that has global ambitions and products that are capable of contesting position in the global market place. Unrecognised growth companies often invest capital into their own expansion, as opposed to paying higher dividends, as they are able to earn a greater return on capital for investors through reinvestment. Quality unrecognised growth companies seek expansion, but not at the expense of strong ESG characteristics, which ensure critical elements are in place for successful expansion: strong corporate governance; and low environmental and social risks. An attractive company that exhibits unrecognised growth offers the potential for earnings surprise in future years, which ultimately draws the attention of the institutional market and eventually catalyses significant re-ratings. It may be an oft-repeated cliché, but what holds all together, from the development of great strategy to the execution of a successful local and global business strategy, is the quality of leadership. Great unrecognised growth companies invariably boast great management. People matter in successful companies, and as active investors, we are well positioned to meet with, review, question and assess management as part of our due-diligence process. Q: What about risk? Aren't small caps riskier investments than larger companies? SW: In theory, small caps should be riskier than larger companies when compared on crude measures of diversified income and size, however, when adjusted for risk, small caps can be surprisingly rewarding. As illustrated in Charts 1 and 4, using the Sharpe Ratio measure of risk adjusted returns, global small caps typically demonstrate a superior risk-adjusted returns (higher Sharpe ratios), than both mid and large-cap stocks. Moreover, an active investment approach can increase this Sharpe ratio through concentration in high-quality unrecognised growth companies, and the active avoidance of low quality small caps that do not match the criteria we apply. Chart 4: The risk-return profile of small caps in perspective
In taking a wider range of risks into consideration with the application of additional ESG risk filters, it is possible to further improve the risk-return outcome for small caps. ESG considerations can help reduce many tangible and intangible, un-quantifiable risks that help select winners and deselect losers in the risk-return equation. 5 Contactus@ ausbil.com.au Finally, liquidity management is key to success in global small-cap investing. Unlike mid and large-cap stocks that typically have deep order books in the marketplace, global small caps can display shallower order books, to the point of illiquidity. A company needs market trade flow in order for the execution of a clean investment thesis through the clean entry and exit of positions. In an illiquid stock, news can hamper the ability of investors to trade or exit. Ausbil manages exposure to liquidity risk very closely, and we will not enter positions that we cannot exit at any time, and within a reasonable timeframe. Relative to all small caps, this further improves the riskreward positioning of our approach, and can also materially improve our Sharpe ratio. In today's volatile markets, large companies are not a guaranteed mitigation for risk. The market has rapidly sold down many large caps regardless of size, and institutional share registers can be brutal to large caps, as much as they can to smaller companies. Q: So can you give us some examples of what a great, unrecognised growth story looks like? TB: Australia is only 2% of the world market. There is a lot of potential on offer in the other 98% of markets, and a lot of companies and sectors that are just not available in Australia. Moreover, small caps in larger markets have a natural advantage in being 'small fish in very large ponds'. One such company is theTradeDesk (TTD). The Global SmallCap Fund invested in TTD in June 2018. At the time, TTD was marketing online banner ads and content that rivalled Google Ads, but protected the identity of advertisers. TTD was a small fish in a very large pond, but it offered a compelling challenger solution to the dominant player in one of the world's most profitable spaces. TTD displayed many of the crucial characteristics we look for as a sign of quality, unrecognised growth. It was a niche leader in digital advertising, with global expansion ambitions for developed and emerging markets. It offered new and unique products, especially in universal IDs that was not being offered by Google. The management team were already proven, and reinvesting a growing earnings stream back into expansion of the business. With strong ESG credentials and a focus on improved data privacy, a competitive edge in the market, TTD was able to build and expand, and generate earnings surprises that were not recognised by the market. The result is that from the $87 entry price in June 2018, earnings surprises drove the stock price to $900 by January 2021, at which time the Fund exited, with TTD graduating 'with honours' as an emerging global titan, moving from the Fund's benchmark into the mid-cap benchmarks. Another example from the Fund's portfolio is Generac, a world leader in generators, based in the United States. Generac (GNRC) is another company that demonstrates the features of an emerging global titan, similar to our experience with TTD. Generac started as a niche leader in generators and smart energy. Growth ambition has since seen it expand globally, into South America and Europe. GNRC has expanded its product offering into inverters and smart grid tech, further investing through accretive mergers and acquisitions that expand both its capabilities and its footprint. GNRC has strong ESG credentials, especially with its link to future sustainable energy demand, and like TTD, it has a highly regarded management team. The Fund has seen its investment to date rise to over $280, from an entry point of $50 in May 2018, with the stock a key holding for future earnings surprise. Q: Can you summarise the benefits of adding global small caps to a portfolio? SW: We think the proposition for investors is simple. Global small caps offers a superior riskadjusted return from a global opportunity set of companies, many of which are not represented in Australian equity sectors. The opportunity to invest early in the next theTradeDesk, Google or even Tesla are waiting to be discovered in these 23 developed markets. They are not common, but with the criteria we apply in selecting companies demonstrating superior unrecognised growth potential, we believe the odds are significantly shortened for investors capturing the growth of future global titans. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Ausbil 130/30 Focus Fund, Ausbil Australian Active Equity Fund, Ausbil Global SmallCap Fund, Ausbil MicroCap Fund |
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References Banz, R. W. (1981). The Relationship between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, 9(1), 3-18. Fama, E.F. & French. K.R. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427. Siegel, J. J. (2013). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies. New York: McGraw-Hill. DISCLAIMER Important Information: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Kuwait, Netherlands, Sweden, United Arab Emirates, USA, United Kingdom. General Research provided to a client may vary depending upon various factors such as a client's individual preferences as to the frequency and manner of receiving communications, a client's risk profile and investment focus and perspective (e.g., market wide, sector specific, long-term, short-term, etc.), the size and legal and regulatory constraints. This information is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. 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The impact of a public health crisis such as the Coronavirus (or any future pandemic, epidemic or outbreak of a contagious disease) is difficult to predict, which presents material uncertainty and risk with respect to any investment or fund performance. |
27 Sep 2021 - Performance Report: Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy
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| Fund Overview | The quantitative model is proprietary and designed in-house. The critical elements are Valuation, Momentum, and Quality (VMQ) and every stock in the global universe is scored and ranked. Verification of the quant model scores is then cross checked by fundamental analysis in which a company's Accounting policies, Governance, and Strategic positioning is evaluated. The manager believes strategy is suited to investors seeking returns from investing in global companies, diversification away from Australia and a risk aware approach to global investing. It should be noted that this is a strategy in an IMA format and is not offered as a fund. An IMA solution can be a more cost and tax effective solution, for clients who wish to own fewer stocks in a long only strategy. |
| Manager Comments | The strategy's Sharpe ratio has ranged from a high of 2.82 for performance over the most recent 12 months to a low of 0.81 over the latest 36 months, and is 1.18 for performance since inception. Its Sortino ratio (which excludes volatility in positive months) is 2.23 for performance since inception. Since inception in August 2011 in the months where the market was positive, the strategy has provided positive returns 89% of the time, contributing to an up-capture ratio for returns since inception of 101.25%. Over all other periods, the strategy's up-capture ratio has ranged from a high of 116.64% over the most recent 12 months to a low of 85.62% over the latest 60 months. An up-capture ratio greater than 100% indicates that, on average, the strategy has outperformed in the market's positive months over the specified period. The strategy's down-capture ratio for returns since inception is 93.69%. A down-capture ratio less than 100% indicates that, on average, the strategy has outperformed in the market's negative months. |
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