The energy transition needed to address climate change will require significant investment in new resources capacity to ensure the efficient rollout of low-carbon technologies. Investors can benefit by acknowledging the key role that the natural resources sector is set to play over the coming decades.

Creating a lower-carbon world will require a significant overhaul of the global energy system. From replacing internal combustion engines with electric alternatives to generating renewable power from solar and wind energy, the steps countries need to take to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Scenarios to limit global warming to below 2°C as set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement will touch on nearly every aspect of our daily lives.

The energy transition offers significant opportunities for investors to benefit from  decarbonisation over the coming decades. While many have focused on investing in firms with higher Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) ratings and lower carbon profiles in many cases little thought has been given so far to the vast quantities of critical enabling raw materials required to build the low carbon economy such as copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel and steel and rare earths. The green energy transition relies on sourcing enough of these fundamental building blocks because without these materials, there can be no low-carbon future.

Sustainable resource demand set to surge

The scale of the upcoming resources challenge was made apparent in a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the level of resources needed to support critical decarbonisation initiatives. The global energy body estimated that countries will have to source over three and half times the total demand from the same end markets in 2020, every year by 2040 to keep track with decarbonisation targets.

Figure 1: Transition-linked mineral demand and forecast to meet climate pledges

Source: International Energy Agency, as at May 2021. Note: Includes copper, major battery metals (lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite), chromium, molybdenum, platinum group metals, zinc, rare earth elements and others, but does not include steel and aluminium. There is no guarantee that past trends will continue, or forecasts will be realised. The views are subject to change without notice.

The IEA expects the demand linked to electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage to be the most resource-hungry market. Forecasts show the total yearly demand rising from less than half a million tons in 2020 to over 12.6 million in 2040. This is made up of a wide mix of materials, many of which already face supply constraints. In fact, the forecasted 3.3 million tons of additional yearly nickel demand for this market alone exceeds the current 2.8 million tons of nickel produced annually, underscoring the pressing need for investment in new capacity.

Investment in transition-enabling resources is lagging

There is a pressing need to ramp up supply to meet the demand associated with decarbonisation. However, global resources firms have yet to materially lift investments in new capacity after a decade of underinvestment that followed the peak spending in 2011 induced by the China-led demand for resources boom. Figure 2 shows that analysts are forecasting near-term real investments in new capacity across the sector to run at about half the pace seen in the 20 years that preceded the peak of China's hunger for resources.

Figure 2: Real global mining capex (bn USD) per unit of mine production (indexed to 1990)

Source: Jefferies, August 2023. There is no guarantee that past trends will continue, or forecasts will be realised.

Many equity investors ignoring the role or resources in the climate transition

For their part, many equity investors are also unprepared when it comes to investing in resources ahead of the low-carbon transition. The ongoing drive to lower the carbon profile of portfolios - with low carbon-tilted indices or Paris-aligned benchmarks - means many equity portfolios are now underweight the resources sector at a time when the sector's capital needs are set to surge to meet the demands of the low-carbon economy. Indeed, Figure 3 shows that that a Paris-aligned version of the MSCI World Index has significantly less resources exposure than passive index tracking, with investors following the former strategy committing to having no energy investments and about half the materials exposure.

Figure 3: Resources weight by investment strategy (%)

Source: MSCI, September 2023.

Being underweight the resources sector may have made sense previously given these stocks lagged the wider market during the low-growth decade that followed the Global Financial Crisis. However, this position needs to change if investors want to benefit from this key enabler of the low-carbon transition.

A holistic approach to delivering a climate transition investment portfolio

We think investors may want to consider adopting a more holistic approach to decarbonisation. This can be done by looking at the wider picture of how this can be achieved through the products and services offered by the companies they invest in, rather than purely focusing on the categorisation of 'low-carbon'. It is essential to acknowledge the critical role materials play in facilitating a low-carbon economy. Currently, the 'scope' lens applied to gauge the carbon profile of investments puts resources at a disadvantage in the eyes of carbon-conscious investors due to the relatively high carbon intensity of the sector. Measures to acknowledge the role a company's products and practices play in avoiding emissions (Scope 4 emissions) are starting to gain traction. A greater adoption of these metrics will help highlight the key contribution resources firms play in decarbonisation efforts.

Rethinking resources also doesn't have to tie investors to firms with poor ESG profiles. The sector overall has made great strides in improving its sustainability characteristics - both in terms of how new resources are mined and produced, and also with firms playing a leading role in the circular economy. There's no running away from the fact that even sustainable resources companies will have higher carbon intensities than those of low-carbon indices. However, investors can still achieve a significant reduction in the carbon profile of a portfolio relative to the overall market by taking a blended approach that mixes investments in responsible resources with other low-carbon equity investments. For example, a 90% MSCI Paris-aligned portfolio with 10% responsible resources could offer a reduction of more than 70% in carbon emissions compared to the MSCI World Index with the added benefit of potentially more attractive returns and diversification benefits from the allocation to responsible resources.*

Closing thoughts

The unprecedented challenge posed by decarbonisation requires significant investments to enable the roll out of low-carbon solutions required to meet global climate pledges. These investments also need to filter through to supply chain participants to ensure the availability of these technologies at the required scale. The post-COVID economic reopening has shown how even a few bottlenecks can quickly hobble entire industries.

Capital flows need to flow through to the fundamental building blocks that will make the energy transition a reality. Finding a way to properly account for the role companies play in enabling low-carbon technologies should put the resources sector in a better light.

In the meantime, investors should look beyond the near-term carbon profile of their investments and consider whether those investments are 'doing good' by enabling a low-carbon future. Acceptance of a slightly higher carbon profile with the potential for better returns could be a better outcome for investors than simply investing in a low-carbon portfolio that makes them feel good today.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

Sustainable or Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing considers factors beyond traditional financial analysis. This may limit available investments and cause performance and exposures to differ from, and potentially be more concentrated in certain areas than the broader market.

Natural resources industries can be significantly affected by changes in natural resource supply and demand, energy and commodity prices, political and economic developments, environmental incidents, energy conservation and exploration projects.

Author: Tal Lomnitzer, CFA, Senior Investment Manager

The nuclear industry is undergoing something of a renaissance. For anyone with an interest in the industry, even a passing one, it's been a painfully long wait, but the uranium worm certainly seems to have turned. Over the past 12-18 months, we have added positions in Boss Energy (BOE.ASX) and Paladin Energy (PDN.ASX), two uranium miners. At the time of writing, the uranium spot price had topped US$70/lb, a 13-year, pre-Fukushima high and contracted volumes are on the up. In that time there has been more than one surge in the commodities sector, but uranium has missed out every time. So how did we get here?

Langer Heinrich Stage 3 construction circa 2011 (about a month prior to Fukushima) - uranium was looking up

The Fall

Not much moves quickly in the nuclear industry. The last time we experienced this level of positivity, one of our team was on site at Paladin's Langer Heinrich (LH) uranium mine in Namibia. That was in early 2011 during the Stage 3 expansion (see above). The mood then had turned bullish even though the uranium price had peaked three years earlier at over US$130/lb

.

Uranium price, US$/lb (Source: Cameco)

Most commodities overshoot and that was certainly the case with uranium in 2007 as phenomenal Chinese growth erased a decades long malaise in uranium. However, over the next three years, the price did not dip below US$40/lb and exceeded US$70/lb around the time of that LH site visit - about where we find ourselves now. Prices were high, the mine was expanding, and uranium was being hailed as a natural alternative to coal for reliable baseload, driven by a "green energy" tailwind. What could go wrong?

An earthquake. And an unusually big and complex one at that. It struck the east coast of Japan in March 2011, just a handful of months after that LH site visit. At magnitude 9, the so-called Great East Japan Earthquake was the largest in Japan's history and the fourth largest recorded since the advent of modern seismology, 110 years earlier. In other words, this was a very rare event.

The earthquake and resulting tsunami disabled the cooling systems of the coastal Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, resulting in core meltdown in three reactors. While the Daiichi plant, which first began operating in 1971, was able to withstand the ground movement produced by the quake, it was not designed to cope with the 15m tsunami that followed.

Unfortunately, the engineers had used a 1960 Chilean earthquake and its resultant 3m tsunami to design some of the safety systems at Daiichi. The plant's 10m elevation should have allowed plenty of room for a "regular" tsunami but proved to be inadequate on this occasion as no-one anticipated the magnitude of this event. In short, Japan's nuclear industry, which accounted for ~30% of the country's electricity generation, shutdown in a nationwide safety review, whilst a pall was cast over the global industry that would last a decade.

A long, dark winter

Fukushima's impact on the global nuclear industry cannot be underestimated. For example, following the accident, Germany immediately shutdown eight of its 17 reactors and committed to close the remainder of its fleet, the last of which occurred in April 2023. Prior to the disaster, nuclear energy accounted for one-quarter of Germany's electricity production.

Overall, global electricity production from nuclear dropped 11%. Justifiably, fear of further accidents at older reactors and the increased cost of upgrading/replacing to newer, safer designs, impeded growth of the industry. Furthermore, sentiment was greatly impacted by the potential of renewables - would nuclear even be needed as baseload if windmills and solar panels could deliver zero-carbon power? On the supply demand side, Kazakhstan, the world's biggest producer of uranium, was ramping up production at the time of Fukushima, and continued to do so beyond the shutdown of the Japanese industry.

To compound the problem, Canada's Cameco commenced full-scale commercial production at the underground Cigar Lake in May 2015. The eventual commissioning was complex and protracted. Development had started a decade earlier, but a series of water inflows flooded the mine (it's not called Cigar Lake for nothing). At the bottom in October 2016, the spot price of uranium dipped to US$18/lb and it would be another four to five years before market would stir.

The Spring

We can probably trace the start of the current "boom" to mid-2021 when Canada's Sprott Asset Management founded its Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT), a physically backed financial product. Its purchases helped soak up excess market supply within a gently improving backdrop for nuclear energy. This enthusiasm was shortly followed up at the COP26 meeting in Glasgow, Scotland, later that same year, where nuclear energy again featured as a low-carbon alternative to coal baseload power but arguably with more urgency.

It is increasingly apparent that net-zero by 2050 solely from renewables is extremely challenging and nuclear power represents one low-carbon way to fill the gap. In terms of power generation, nuclear energy offers several advantages over traditional baseload. Nuclear utilities are very long-life assets, land use is 30-100x less than other low CO2 options, CO2 emissions/kWh are lower than all other power sources except for wind, and life extensions of nuclear power plants represents the lowest cost low-CO2 energy.

Other factors have combined to add upward pressure to the uranium price. For example, in the US, the Inflation Reduction Act (Aug 22) provides tax credits and development incentives for existing reactors and uranium resources, while the DoE commenced purchases for its Federal Strategic Uranium Reserve (Sept 22). Elsewhere, nuclear energy has been included in the green energy taxonomies of the EU, UK and South Korea. In geopolitical terms, there is clear uranium (and gas) supply risk around Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and the coup in Niger, the world's sixth largest supplier, has caused consumers like France some concern.

From a capital point of view, we are seeing increased investment in nuclear power from Asia in particular (see above). On the supply side, uranium exploration and development has plummeted and remains at multi-year lows. While the uranium market is a closed and esoteric one that can be difficult to decipher, there is incremental benefit in the short-term from this supply-demand dynamic.

Where to from here?

While the outlook for the uranium market is better than it has been for more than a decade, challenges remain. Nuclear energy is still a divisive issue due to ever-lingering safety concerns, and it could be argued that countries like Australia may never see its use. Other factors that impede acceptance include the upfront cost of construction, strict regulation and the time to build a new plant, where the median time is currently around 80-90 months.

On the flip side, nuclear facilities are amongst the most rigorously engineered structures on Earth and provide very long life, consistent output. While upfront capex is very high, the levelized cost over the life of a nuclear asset is extremely competitive especially if life extensions to existing plants is considered. Moreover, new technologies, such as Small Modular Reactors (SMR) offer potential advantages in cost and safety. Finally, recent geopolitical developments such as the Russia/Ukraine conflict highlight the need for secure, reliable sources of power. In a world focused on low carbon electricity, it is not surprising that many nations are considering a nuclear future.

Author: David Haddad, Principal and Portfolio Manager

The first weekend of October saw the number of auctions decline significantly on the previous week (1215, down from 2,648), as is common on long weekends, caused by the AFL Public Holiday and the King's Birthday. Sydney recorded the most auctions of the capital cities, with 730 taking place, followed by Melbourne and Brisbane with 203 and 110 respectively. Adelaide and Canberra just missed out on triple digit figures, with 83 and 74 respectively, whilst just 13 and 2 auctions occurred in Perth and Tasmania respectively.

Whilst the number of auctions declined for the week, clearance rates remained strong at 70.3% across the combined capitals (up from 59.7% last year). This was driven by Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane all recording above 70% clearance rates with 79.3%, 71.7% and 70.7% respectively. Melbourne and Canberra also had moderate clearance rates of 66.0% and 62.5% respectively.

The property market continued to grow yet again with a 0.8% rise for the month of September, taking quarterly growth to 2.2%. Adelaide experienced the largest monthly growth of 1.7%, followed by Brisbane and Perth with 1.3% each. Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Darwin all experienced growth with 1%, 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, whilst Hobart was the only capital city to fall in September with -0.6%.

Quarterly data is similar, again with Adelaide leading the way (4.3%), closely followed by Brisbane (3.9%), Perth (3.6%) and Sydney (2.5%). Melbourne and Darwin both increased 1.3% for the quarter, with Canberra at 0.4%. Again, Hobart is the only capital to not experience growth, falling by 0.2% for the quarter.

Whilst many economists predicted a softening in property prices in the later stages of 2023, dwelling values have remained strong. As we head into the spring and summer selling season, we may see supply increase slightly but the market remains extremely tight.

Clearance Rates & Auctions Week of the 3^rd of October 2023

Property Values as of 2^nd of October 2023

Median Dwelling Values as of 2^nd of October 2023

Quick Insights

Higher Blocks Means Lower Costs

In defiance of its own planning rules and legislation a local council in Melbourne has intervened to approve another two extra storeys on an apartment building development. The move was done under pressure to triple the proportion of affordable housing the development might offer.

As the urgency of a tight rental and housing market continues to grow we may very well be seeing similar occurrences throughout the capitals as local councils realise they have a role to play.

Source: Australian Financial Review

Vacancy Latency

Vacancy rates have once again dipped below the threshold and rents are likely to rise once more in the next quarter.

Without more supply from inner city developers and less demand from migration and those who cannot afford to buy, the situation will only continue. A suburb of particular has been Ryde, in New South Wales which has recorded a year-to-date rise of 17% in rents.

Source: Australian Financial Review

Develop or Sell

Dan Andrews stepped down as Victorian Premier last month and his replacement is keen to make a name for herself.

Jacinta Allan's government has now widened the vacant land tax to include areas outside Melbourne and long-abandoned plots in the inner city.

The tax now applies to residential properties which are unoccupied for more than six months a year in the hope that homeowners will either develop the land or sell to someone who will.

Source: Australian Financial Review

Author: Filippo Sciacca, Director - Investor Relations, Asset Management and Compliance

With the upcoming Voice referendum in Australia, the nation stands on the cusp of a significant constitutional change, emphasising the acknowledgment of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders as the original inhabitants and the establishment of an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament. Here we aim to assess Australian corporate performance in the context of the indigenous reconciliation journey, particularly focusing on Reconciliation Action Plans and their varying stages.

Reconciliation Action Plans

Reconciliation Action Plans (RAPs) seek to enable organisations to take meaningful action to advance reconciliation.

Based around the core pillars of relationships, respect and opportunities, RAPs aim to provide tangible and substantive benefits for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, increase economic equity and supporting First Nations self-determination.

The four stages of a RAP are as follows:

1. Reflect: At this stage, organisations acknowledge the need for change and express their commitment to reconciliation. This stage, which normally takes around 12 months, involves building relationships and cultural awareness within the workplace.
2. Innovate: The Innovate stage focuses on implementing specific initiatives and programs that promote meaningful engagement and partnerships with indigenous communities. This stage normally takes around two years.
3. Stretch: Organisations at the Stretch stage are dedicated to integrating reconciliation into their core operations and actively seeking opportunities to advance indigenous participation, employment, and procurement. This stage normally takes around 2-3 years.
4. Elevate: The Elevate stage signifies a comprehensive and sustained approach to reconciliation, incorporating significant changes in organisational policies, practices, and cultural competency, ultimately striving for measurable outcomes.

Corporate Performance and RAPs

There are presently 43 companies in the S&P/ASX 100 with RAPs in place. These companies are distributed across the Reflect, Innovate, Stretch, and Elevate stages. Notably, 57 companies in the ASX 100 do not have RAPs, suggesting that there is room for growth in corporate engagement in indigenous reconciliation.

The breakdown of companies by RAP stage and their associated values in the ASX 100 is as follows:

• Reflect: 12 companies with a total value of $300 billion
• Innovate: 14 companies with a total value of $125 billion
• Stretch: 10 companies with a total value of $400 billion
• Elevate: 7 companies with a total value of $120 billion

Figure 1: S&P/ASX 100 RAP Breakdown (number)

Source: IRESS, Reconciliation Australia, Tyndall AM, Oct 2023.

Figure 2: S&P/ASX 100 RAP breakdown (total market cap)

Source: IRESS, Reconciliation Australia, Tyndall AM, Oct 2023.

Additionally, sector-wise analysis demonstrates varying levels of engagement with RAPs:

• Financial sector companies exhibit substantial engagement, with 12 out of 19 companies having RAPs.
• The industrial and property trusts sectors also demonstrate significant engagement, with 7 out of 14 and 6 out of 10 companies having RAPs, respectively.
• Conversely, sectors including consumer discretionary, consumer staples, healthcare, and information technology lag behind in terms of RAP adoption.

Figure 3: S&P/ASX 100 RAP breakdown by industry

Source: IRESS, Reconciliation Australia, Tyndall AM, Oct 2023.

Specifically relating to the Voice referendum, it is interesting to note that 14 of the top 20 listed companies in Australia have expressed public support for the Voice. Somewhat surprisingly, of these 14 companies only 11 currently have RAPs. Less surprisingly, none of those 11 companies are at the Reflect stage and the majority are at the Elevate stage or beyond - essentially companies that are more progressed in their own reconciliation journey.

Figure 4: S&P/ASX 20 Voice Support

Source: IRESS, Reconciliation Australia, Tyndall AM, Oct 2023.

Incorporating Reconciliation into our ESG approach

ESG has always been a critical part of the Tyndall investment process. More recently we have added structure to the process via the development of an ESG scorecard amongst other longstanding initiatives including active ESG engagement and independent thought on ESG related matters. While social issues and diversity and inclusion performance have always been considered, we have recently updated our scorecard to specifically reflect where companies are at in their RAP journey.

Conclusion

Regardless of the outcome of the Voice referendum, it is clear that corporate Australia will play an increasingly significant role in progressing indigenous reconciliation efforts. This includes fostering genuine relationships, creating inclusive workplaces, and supporting initiatives that empower Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. The pre-Voice referendum assessment of Australian corporate performance in the indigenous reconciliation journey through RAPs reveals both progress and areas for improvement.

While a notable number of companies have embraced reconciliation through the RAP framework, a significant proportion is yet to make a commitment. Encouragingly, there appears a growing understanding and acknowledgment of the need to meaningfully engage with indigenous communities.

Author: Michael Ward, Senior Research Analyst

As the new academic year kicks off, students in Europe are confronted with a shortage of good-quality student accommodation. Relative to the UK, the purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) market in Europe is at a much earlier stage in its evolution.

The demand for higher education in Europe is rising, driven by a steady increase in domestic and international students. In 2002, only 22.5% of adults living in the EU were educated to degree level. By 2021, that figure had risen to 40% - the European Commission's long-term target [1]. Momentum remains strong, with access to tertiary education still under the spotlight. In 2022, student enrollments increased or remained stable in 87% of European cities. Rising international student populations are further exacerbating the demand in Europe, too.

With limited supply, these fundamental drivers are creating a compelling opportunity for investors to source long-term stable cashflows from the sector. Investment in European PBSA hit €15.4 billion in 2022. This was 47% higher than 2021, 37% higher than 2019 (pre-Covid levels), and 39% higher than the five-year average. Our research on more mature PBSA markets, like the UK, demonstrates how this opportunity can evolve. 

The demand for higher education in Europe is rising, driven by a steady increase in domestic and international students

Examining the provision rate

In 2022, PBSA occupancy rates averaged 98% in Europe's major cities [2], a level that far exceeds commercial real estate sectors. The demand has also been counter-cyclical to gross domestic product. When there's a downturn in the economy, the demand for student beds rises as more people either enter tertiary education or extend their studies beyond undergraduate degrees. Even during the pandemic and strict lockdowns, university admissions remained resilient and even grew in some cases.

However, the provision rates tell the true story. The average provision rate (defined as the student-to-bed ratio) in Europe is 25%. This ranges from 4% in Italy to 33% in the UK. At a city level, London is 31%, Amsterdam is 29%, Copenhagen is 21% and Munich is 15% [3]. With high inflation, debt and construction costs, development activity is insufficient to absorb current and future demand from both domestic and overseas students. Even if all planned developments go ahead, the European provision rate will remain less than 15%.

This leaves students at the mercy of individual landlords in the private rental market, which can mean they end up living further away from university campuses. Private accommodation is often more costly because of open-market rents, non-inclusive energy bills, travel, and extra costs for entertainment and facilities. Importantly, a lesser 'student experience' means institutions risk falling behind the current expectations of domestic and international students in an increasingly competitive environment.

'Internationalisation' in higher education

'Internationalisation' is the process of integrating cross-border students into European institutions [4]. The top 10 universities in Europe are in the UK and Germany, of which international students account for between 19% and 73% (London School of Economics 73%, University of Oxford 42%, ETH Zurich 41%, and LMU Munich 19%) [5].

This proportion has grown considerably in recent years, owing to a rise in English Taught Bachelors (ETBs), which accommodate a broader range of students. The UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy comprise the largest population of English-taught students. International students tend to want higher standards of accommodation in bespoke premises, with higher security than domestic students. A shortage of suitable PBSA stock is a limiting factor for institutions that want to attract this important source of revenue. For investors, this type of PBSA can provide scope for specialisation, with higher premium units and longer-term lets available for overseas students.

Chart: Countries accounting for highest past enrolments

Source: Studyportals, abrdn, June 2023

Diversifying the student base

For European PBSA assets, it is less common for investors to have a lease with a university or a business operator. It is more typical to have exposure to individual tenants and turnover. This is critical as the risk of higher void rates can have a more direct impact on performance in European PBSA. Schemes that are backed by a diverse range of international students tend to support more resilient cashflows. Where there is a strong dependency on one source of international student, there is a risk that the source slows or is diverted.

Brexit is a good example of a structural shift that can happen almost overnight. The number of EU students coming to the UK plummeted by 50% in 2022, after Brexit-related changes meant they lost their discount on tuition fees. Non-EU international students have filled these places, but this has changed the dynamic in the UK market. In addition, student visa reforms and anti-immigration laws hinder future enrollment rates from Europe, in particular.

In the UK, the highest number of international students are from China, India and the US. European student flows are more fragmented, though, driven by a shared colonial history, languages, politics and geographical relationships. In France, most students are from Africa, given the shared colonial ties; Portugal has the most Brazilian students because of their colonial and economic links; and Austria and Germany receive students from each other as they share a common language and are neighbouring countries. The chart shows the differences in student flows and the implied opportunities and risks within the international student mix. The diverse range of international students is a distinct advantage for European PBSA.

With the UK government introducing stricter policies, EU institutions are an emerging alternative for international students. This trend could allow the EU to close the gap on the UK. It's not a one-way ticket, though. The Netherlands is another maturing PBSA market that is home to many top universities and international students. But it could cap international student enrollment and recruitment in the future. The tight housing market in major Dutch cities is a major political issue and there are simply not enough beds to supply all students with good-quality accommodation.

It's all about distinction

Given the demand and supply fundamentals, we believe there will be strong potential opportunities for investors to grow meaningful allocations in good-quality and well-located European PBSA.

The deglobalisation trend that has been fuelled by geopolitics, means investors cannot simply 'wing it' when it comes to European PBSA. It is important to focus on the best university towns and cities, backed by the most diverse range of student flows, and a strong and growing domestic student population.

1. 3-22042020-BP-EN.pdf (europa.eu)
2.  Bonard report, 2022
3. CBRE report (May 2023)
4.   European Parliament study on internationalisation of higher education - EAIE
5.   Times Higher Education

Author: Hong Bui, Real Estate Investment Analyst, Europe, abrdn

Globally equity markets in September declined materially driven by rising bond yields. In the US, the S&P 500 fell -4.9%, whilst the Nasdaq declined -5.8%. In the UK, the FTSE 100 outperformed, rising +2.3%, due to its heavy resources and lower technology weightings.

In Australia, the All-Ordinaries Accumulation Index fell -2.8%. Energy was the best performing sector (brent crude oil rose +9.8%), whilst real estate and technology were the worst performing sectors, both impacted by rising bond yields. Small caps underperformed as investor risk appetite weakened, with the ASX Small Ords Accumulation Index falling -4.0%.

In bond markets, the US 10-year bond yield climbed +43bp to close at 4.54%. Its Australian counterpart saw the yield increase +46bp to 4.49%. The increase in bond yields was the main story for financial markets in the month and was driven by expectations that high inflation will be more persistent and hence require more rate hikes from central banks over the next 6-12 months. The Australian dollar was flat, closing at US$0.64.