Hedge Clippings | Friday, 25 November 2022

"One swallow doth not a summer make"

So goes the old saying - just how old might surprise some readers, given its origin can be traced back to the Greek philosopher Aristotle, (384-322 BC) following which its first recorded use in the English language was more recently in 1539. But we digress, because we're using the phrase to describe the economy, and markets, which following a dismal year to date, not only had a welcome bounce or spring in October but have continued onward and upward in November. Time will tell if that's two "swallows" in a row, but it is certainly welcome.

While quite possible that the market is bouncing back having been oversold - particularly during a particularly brutal September when the ASX Total Return Index fell over 6%, and its US big brother, the S&P500 was down over 9%, there seems to be less panic about surging inflation, and associated hikes in interest rates designed to quell the surging dragon. Maybe we're all just getting used to it after years of falling interest rates and resultant rampant property prices, and listening to the RBA trying to stimulate the economy and inflation, not dampen it.

If the RBA is trying to dampen consumer demand, it seems they're having little success, in spite of successive rate increases, although the flow-on effect through the mortgage market is likely to lag activity. Inflation meanwhile - currently 7.3% to the end of September, and forecast by Treasury to peak at 7.75% by the end of December, appears to be alive and well based on anecdotal evidence such as airfares, and the $16 bacon and egg roll which Hedge Clippings ordered this morning. (No, the diet's not going well, thank you very much!).

The point is that in spite of what seems to be a fair degree of opportunism by some businesses to increase prices, consumers don't seem to have got the message yet. By "the message" we mean pulling their heads in (or in our case, belts) and changing their spending habits. As a result, company profits are healthy, as in turn are markets, which at this rate are likely to post a gain for the calendar year.

So if neither COVID-19 (and 20, 21, and 22) nor inflation and interest rates have killed the economy, what will?  If Treasury's forecast of 7.75% peak inflation is wrong, and it continues onward and upwards, will the RBA keep jacking up rates until the tipping point arrives? Of course, what happens in practice is the target is overshot, both on the up and downside.

While on the subject of up and downside, and continuing our "Top 10" theme of last week, the 12 month performance of the Top 10 funds to the end of October ranged from +24% through to +43%, while the bottom 10 ranged from -45% through to -68%, with the latter group not surprisingly heavily populated by crypto funds.

Finally, we can't let a Friday afternoon pass without a comment on the antics of some characters from the Federal Parliament. The report into Scomo's "Minister in secret for everything" antics was released today, with predictable findings. Interestingly, Scomo himself didn't, wasn't, or declined to be interviewed by the report's author, former High Court Justice Virginia Bell. His silence or non appearance hasn't enhanced his reputation.

And talking of reputations and Canberra, how about Queensland MP Stuart Robert - who you may recall had to repay $38,000 worth of excess home internet charges back in the days he was in government? This week it was revealed he'd been helping a mate and an another ex colleague with their lobbying efforts in Canberra. Except they weren't really "lobbying", just helping a few multi-national companies find their way around the back-streets and corridors of the government for a fee. Of course, he was a back bencher at the time, so he had no influence!

No wonder Scomo didn't want a Federal ICAC!

New Funds on FundMonitors.com

Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update October | Australian Secure Capital Fund

What drives poor returns? | Insync Fund Managers

4D inflation podcast (part 2): The US Inflation Reduction Act | 4D Infrastructure

October 2022 Performance News

Glenmore Australian Equities Fund

Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class)

Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund

Cyan C3G Fund

PURE Resources Fund

Bennelong Concentrated Australian Equities Fund

Argonaut Natural Resources Fund

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What drives poor returns?

Insync Fund Managers

October 2022

Most investors do not reap the benefits of compounding wealth that come from equities. Equities grow wealth very well. $100 in the S&P 500 at the start of 1926, three years prior to the great crash, would have boosted your wealth to over $1 Million today.

That's 10.05% p.a. Tumultuous macro world events have rained down upon us since then, and so it's not adverse macro events that derail wealth accumulation; it is investors' reactions to them. In short, investor behaviour derails compounding wealth.

We've experienced difficult months recently for our quality-based strategy including recessionary concerns. We've also delivered positive annual above market returns recently as well - 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, & 2021 (December Ending).

First to fall: When a recession looms, a Quality company's stock price often falls more than the market initially.

Quickest to rise: They are also the first to recover and outperform the other major investment styles during a market recovery.

All roads lead to technology - Accenture

Some of our 16 global megatrends are technology based. Despite all the negative noise shouting for our attention today, the reality is that we are in the middle of an unstoppable wave of technological advances impacting every business. From old style utilities and industrials to online payments, construction and retail. Companies must digitise their business to remain competitive, grow their customer base, revenues and earnings. Accenture is a key player assisting in this digital transformation.

Accenture posted revenues of $62 billion, a record 22% growth adding $11 billion for the year, and importantly EPS growth of 18%. New bookings were $18.4 billion for the quarter, their second highest ever.

A case study on how they do it- EDF

French multinational utility company EDF digitizes the construction of nuclear power stations that provide low-carbon energy for more than 6 million UK homes alone. Accenture transformed EDF's digital construction processes by creating a digital factory model on a secure cloud infrastructure. This drives cost efficiencies. Construction methods that relied on thousands of uncoordinated, disjointed paper plans and text are now digitized with contractors accessing and sharing the same view and information. AI then scans and assesses this for problems and opportunities.

Digital dashboards provide real-time data visibility across a myriad of systems. 'Digital twins' identify areas for automation across power plants, all of which drive safety, efficiency and quality. A 'digital twin' virtually duplicates physical objects, processes & systems, and are used to predict how those elements will respond to different variables.

Premiumisation powerhouse - LVMH                                                                     

LVMH is the world's largest luxury conglomerate.  Brands include Christian Dior, Givenchy, Louis Vuitton, Tag Heuer, Bulgari, Fendi, and Moët & Chandon - even Cape Mentell wines in WA and Cloudy Bay in NZ. LVMH's products are an expression of creativity and timelessness.

The previous LVMH picture highlights an important facet of their brand strength. They are 6 of LVMH's oldest brands (houses) in the leather goods division with the Loewe brand first established in 1846. History shows heritage brands with a strong leather goods offer, fare best during economic downturns.

In today's difficult macroeconomic climate LVMH delivered standout growth. LVMH recorded revenue around €56.5 billion in the first nine months alone. Up 28% compared to the same period last year. Luxury shoppers have not lost their appetite for high-end designer goods, even in tumultuous times. We have often cited the benefits of companies with pricing power and high gross margins in a rising inflationary environment. LVMH is a stand out example.

Whilst the luxury sector is not immune to recessionary shocks, the negative impacts do not last very long. The strongest brands tend come out bigger and better on the other side. LVMH offers a proven defensive track record.

The GFC period highlights this. Overall sales at LVMH declined by 4% yet Fashion & Leather Goods (F&LG)   posted sales growth of +2% in the worst recessionary period we have had in decades. Back then F&LG made up 55% of their total. Today it represents 75% of group profits. 

Conventional wisdom pointed to people trying to hide their wealth during an economic downturn. During the GFC, anecdotes spread of shoppers coming out of Bergdorf Goodman in NY with their purchases wrapped in brown paper bags.  But a 2010 joint study by the Marshall School of Business and UCLA put paid to this.

The study focused on luxury leather goods and how they changed during the GFC. Leading brands substantially trimmed their offering, whilst simultaneously increasing price points. They also featured a higher proportion of items with logos or other brand identifiers.

Louis Vuitton and Gucci were charging consumers more to flaunt their brands during a recession.

The study explained this by segmenting luxury consumers into "Patricians" and "Parvenus", or "insiders" and "outsiders" to the world of luxury. Parvenus needed to confirm they were still wealthy during a recession by buying more items from the latest collections of lux brands. This created an opportunity for ostentatious luxury designs.

The GFC sent the world into a tailspin, mainly because it was the most significant contraction in the global economy since WWII and the last global recession was 18 long years ago. Luxury stocks saw a mass sell-off. From the peak of their performance in May 2007 to trough in March 2009, an index of the top 13 luxury goods companies lost 62 percent of its value.

Over the same period, the financial performance of the 13 companies making up the index was the reverse!  Sales continued growing; +5.7% in 07', +6.5% in 08' and +2.2% in 2009. Their share prices recovered sharply immediately after the bad news ebbed. Investors rightly appreciated the resilience and strength of their business models. LVMH have delivered a compound annual earnings per stock growth rate of 14% p.a.  since the start of the GFC. A compound annual rate of return of 17% p.a. over the same period.

Summing things up

The global economy is impossibly complex, with billions of moving parts driving demand, consumption and activity. Commentators, most fund managers, consultants and the media earn money trying to predict what all of these billions of consumers and companies are doing, or are planning to do over the next few weeks, months or even years. It's not only foolish but impossible.

Funds operated by this manager:

Insync Global Capital Aware Fund, Insync Global Quality Equity Fund

Disclaimer
Equity Trustees Limited ("EQT") (ABN 46 004 031 298), AFSL 240975, is the Responsible Entity for the Insync Global Quality Fund and the Insync Global Capital Aware Fund. EQT is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: EQT). This information has been prepared by Insync Funds Management Pty Ltd (ABN 29 125 092 677, AFSL 322891) ("Insync"), to provide you with general information only. In preparing this information, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. It is not intended to take the place of professional advice and you should not take action on specific issues in reliance on this information. Neither Insync, EQT nor any of its related parties, their employees or directors, provide and warranty of accuracy or reliability in relation to such information or accepts any liability to any person who relies on it. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future performance. You should obtain a copy of the Product Disclosure Statement before making a decision about whether to invest in this product.

Is Google's LaMDA chatbot sentient?

Alphinity Investment Management

September 2022

Funds operated by this manager:

Alphinity Australian Share Fund, Alphinity Concentrated Australian Share Fund, Alphinity Global Equity Fund, Alphinity Sustainable Share Fund

Disclaimer
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your personal circumstances, financial needs or objectives. Before acting on any information, you should consider the appropriateness of it and the relevant product having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. In particular, you should seek independent financial advice and read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement or other offer document and the relevant Target Market Determination (available on the Apply Now page on this website) before making a decision whether to buy or hold a financial product.

4D inflation podcast (part 2): The US Inflation Reduction Act

4D Infrastructure

November 2022

In part 2, Peter Aquilina (4D's Head of ESG and Senior Investment Analyst) speaks with Dave Whitby (Bennelong Account Director) about how the US' new Inflation Reduction Act is really about transitioning the US to a decarbonised, clean/renewable energy economy.

• 0:34 - Why the Inflation Reduction Act isn't actually inflation policy
• 3:56 - How the Act is supporting decarbonisation efforts
• 6:30 - What this means for infrastructure (and why 4D is excited)
• 9:32 - Some of the names in 4D's portfolio that could benefit.

Speakers: Peter Aquilina,  Head of ESG and Senior Investment Analyst
Dave Whitby, Bennelong Account Director

Funds operated by this manager:

^{The content contained in this audio represents the opinions of the speakers. The speakers may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the audio. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely as an avenue for the speakers to express their personal views on investing and for the entertainment of the listener.}