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23 May 2022 - Fund Review: Insync Global Capital Aware Fund April 2022
INSYNC GLOBAL CAPITAL AWARE FUND
Attached is our most recently updated Fund Review on the Insync Global Capital Aware Fund.
We would like to highlight the following:
- The Global Capital Aware Fund invests in a concentrated portfolio of 15-30 stocks, targeting exceptional, large cap global companies with a strong focus on dividend growth and downside protection.
- Portfolio selection is driven by a core strategy of investing in companies with sustainable growth in dividends, high returns on capital, positive free cash flows and strong balance sheets.
- Emphasis on limiting downside risk is through extensive company research, the ability to hold cash and long protective index put options.
For further details on the Fund, please do not hesitate to contact us.
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23 May 2022 - A brave new world
A brave new world Kardinia Capital May 2022 |
The topic on everyone's mind is: what does the balance of 2022 have in store for investors?
Inflation bites. Meanwhile, the most recent Australian CPI inflation number surged to 5.1%. For anyone renovating (or who knows someone who is), it comes as little surprise that a key upward driver was housing construction costs as well as higher fuel prices. The US CPI came in at 8.5% for March year on year on its way to 10% and beyond, potentially challenging the highs we had in 1970-1980. Once the inflation genie springs from the bottle it's hard to stuff back in. Back in the 70s it took a rotation of three individual US Federal Reserve Chairs to tackle inflation: it was only when Volcker took the helm in 1979 and drove the federal funds rate to 20% that inflation finally broke - along with the global economy. This time we think the Fed will not repeat its past mistakes, and inflation will be tackled faster. That won't be easy, however, as inflation is already becoming entrenched. Coles recently reported food inflation in the March quarter of 3.3%, and suggested that price rises were only just getting started. Higher energy prices lead to higher food prices, and energy has just gone through a decade of depressed spending in new and expanded production: there simply is not enough oil and gas to satisfy global needs, particularly as sanctions continue to be placed on Russia. Our view is that oil prices have not seen their top, notwithstanding the Brent oil price is currently sitting 60% higher than 12 months ago. The following chart shows the outperformance of the technology sector over the energy and materials sectors. The NASDAQ has beaten the global energy and materials sectors by a factor of 4 over the past decade. However, given the tech sector's long-dated earnings profile with rapidly rising interest rates, we believe this gap in performance will close.
Interest rates on the up The Fed has already raised interest rates twice this year, and the market is forecasting two more 50bps rises in June and July followed by a rate hike every meeting for the remainder of the year. The only thing that could halt that trajectory is if US summer economic data is so weak that a pause in hikes is considered. We saw the US equity market fall 6% during the US Fed's taper program in 2013 and the US Fed quickly reversed course - though that may not be as easy this time, with Powell's mandate being to tame inflation. In the meantime, as equity markets rise the Fed will take every rate hike it can get. The Reserve Bank of Australia took the opportunity to raise rates by 25bp to 0.35% at its May meeting, above market expectations. The rate increase was immediately passed on in full by each of the major banks. It has been a long time since Australians have experienced rising home loan rates (11 years, in fact) and we expect a considerable impact on consumer discretionary spending as belts are tightened. Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser once said "life wasn't meant to be easy" and we think the Australian consumer is about to find out just how hard life can be in a rising interest rate environment. The consumer discretionary sector of the Australian market is down 15% already this calendar year, and that's before many of its constituents have downgraded profit expectations (which we expect to occur over the next 12 months). The benefit of a long short capability We do not expect the Australian equity market to produce significant returns for investors this calendar year. Notwithstanding, Kardinia has the added flexibility of shorting which many managers in Australia do not possess. In the last 2020 pandemic equity market sell off, the ability to short individual shares and the market resulted in Kardinia falling only c.4% when the market fell c.36%. For a long short fund there are opportunities on both the long and short side to make a return in these markets. So how does that translate into the portfolio? • With a global economic slowdown within the next 12 months a real possibility, household budgets will continue to squeeze. We believe consumer discretionary stocks are at risk. Our key exposures are currently long consumer staples and inflation beneficiaries such as oil, resources (including 'green' metals); and short high multiple stocks, long duration earnings stories and loss makers. |
Funds operated by this manager: Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund |
The content contained in this article represents the opinions of the author/s. The author/s may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the article. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely as an avenue for the author/s to express their personal views on investing and for the entertainment of the reader. |
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23 May 2022 - Interest rate hikes and high debt suggest the markets, the economy or both will break simultaneously
Interest rate hikes and high debt suggest the markets, the economy or both will break simultaneously Wealthlander Active Investment Specialist 06 May 2022 World stock markets are facing much consternation over key issues including high inflation and the path of interest rates, the Ukraine war, and the Covid pandemic in China, all acting to disrupt supply and global trade. Against this background, traditional stock market value measures such as price-earnings ratios are still near the high end of historical valuations in many countries, earnings margins are beginning to come under pressure and consumer confidence is decreasing as costs increase. This does not bode well. Australian inflation is 5.1% per annum, and US inflation was last measured at a rather impressive 8.5%. The US experienced negative real economic growth in the last quarter, suggesting a stagflationary economic environment. It was only last year that you would be laughed at for suggesting stagflation (we did so we know), and the RBA governor was telling the market how foolish they were for even suggesting a rate increase as a possibility in 2022. How times change! Supply disruptions combined with ridiculously easy fiscal and monetary policy are the reasons for the significant recent lift in inflation globally. Central banks currently have interest rates set near record lows. They believe they have to lift interest rates to try to stop inflation from becoming overly entrenched, despite the supply-side issue. Interest rates tend to move in waves; they historically do not go up and down consecutively, instead tending towards trending. Thus, changes in direction are important and closely followed by markets. This time could be the same, but not necessarily so. For most markets and their participants, the extent central banks will move rates is currently the most relevant and important factor for investment decision making. The bond market is pricing aggressive rate increases, which to many market participants - us included - appear unrealistic. US Government Debt to GDP averaged 64.54% from 1940 until 2021, reaching an all-time high of 137.20% of GDP in 2022. US household debt to income is above 77%, while Australian debt to household income is just under 200%; historically, approximately 65% is normal. Many other countries have high debt levels, following further government spending to support economies during Covid or at the consumer end due to higher house prices or credit expansion during a period of record-low interest rates. How will central banks and markets react to this economic background? Secondly, it will be very tempting for central banks to try and ultimately "under-respond" to high inflation as they need to act to inflate the debt away and will become scared again about deflation and a financial crisis should they overdo rate increases and see markets and economies collapse. This could occur much earlier than most believe. The unfortunate reality is central banks don't control everything that goes on in an economy, albeit are loathe to admit it. Monetary policy only has a limited effect on supply-side inflation and ultimately to be effective at addressing this must kill demand i.e., induce a recession. A recession is hence a realistic expectation if central banks are to be taken seriously. Ultimately, it will be very important how far central banks go. A policy mistake lies beyond every decision they make from here. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently lifted interest rates slightly, announcing that the cash rate would increase by 0.25% to 0.35%. Incredibly, this was the first interest rate rise in over 10 years. This appears to be a small opening shot against inflation but it is not until rates are closer to "neutral" that we will know how far they are prepared to push it, and neutral cash rates may be lower than ever before. We would suggest that central banks will continue to lift interest rates, however, to a more limited extent and less than what is priced in. This is because we think something meaningful will break long before they manage to meet the expectations of the bond market, or alternatively, they'll aim to tolerate higher inflation and raise rates cautiously over a more extended period while talking a tough game and hoping inflation will have some dips. Investors, many of which have only had limited experience of inflation and how it can have dramatic effects on the purchasing power of cash over a number of years, will need to pay close attention to central bank actions. Macroeconomics matters now like never before. Market falls could be dramatic because the risks are high and because of the influence of passive investors who don't know what they own, only that they expect it to go up. Passive investors might wake up one day and decide they're over-allocated to risky assets due to their backwards-looking models that simply don't match the times, providing constant selling pressure. A geopolitical and technological disruptive period Geopolitical risk should be front of mind as the era of (relatively) peaceful prosperity appears over. Power games are occurring on a grand scale and the stakes are big. One wrong step and it is literally kaboom. When people with a history of following through on their threats start threatening the use of nukes, nuclear strikes must be considered a realistic possibility (like it or not). Investors also need to be aware that we are headed into one of the most technologically disruptive periods in history. The integration of technology into many businesses will see certain companies thrive and many others prove uncompetitive. For example, artificial intelligence, robotics, and the move to the electrification of transportation will have positive benefits for technologically innovative companies over time, while having negative effects on companies unable to implement or use these new technologies productively. Will the commodity and mining boom continue? The move towards reduced carbon is an ongoing important secular thematic and we are hence allocating towards an active strategy investing in carbon futures to benefit from needed and likely carbon price increases over time. While technology stocks and disruptors are understandably lagging today as rate increases decrease the value of long duration stocks and some of these stocks are absolutely detested, should the central banks not follow through with the priced rate increases and/or reverse their policy, these stocks may see some respite from their entrenched bear markets later in 2022. Real productivity growth is an important secular need that some technology stocks will provide and benefit from overtime, while many others will fail to reach profitability and hence continue to disappoint or disappear. Precious metals will also benefit if positive real rates fail to be sustained, which we think is likely in most Western economies in the absence of good policy choices, due to large debts, worsening demographics and mediocre leadership. Asset allocation and stock selection will hence become a bigger driver of investment returns in this new unstable and dangerous period in world economies and markets. The days of the index approach are hence numbered as broad real returns will likely continue to prove disappointing, and certainly so to anyone with reasonable or high expectations. Being overly concentrated or convicted may also be highly dangerous in such an uncertain and risky world (many funds are already down 40 or 50% from highs using such an approach!). A humbler and more diversified yet still highly active and selective approach is, in our view, more able to manage the risk and uncertainty, smooth the return path and keep losses to more tolerable levels. The primary dangers for investment markets are (1) an overly aggressive interest rate stance by central banks, which we would see as an explicit policy error, or (2) an escalation of the war or a new war. Covid policy in China is an x-factor but one would think likely to resolve over time. If there is one thing we would leave you with, expect to be surprised. We're in a new dangerous investment era where surprises will prove commonplace, and arrogance and an inability to be flexible may prove deadly. Being humble, cautious and backing good research and prudent risk management might not (yet) be very popular but it will be soon enough. It provides a greater chance of being effective and avoiding the disastrous downdrafts which we expect will afflict many investors in 2022. Funds operated by this manager: WealthLander Diversified Alternative Fund DISCLAIMER: This Article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment or financial advice nor an offer to acquire a financial product. Before acting on any information contained in this Article, each person should obtain independent taxation, financial and legal advice relating to this information and consider it carefully before making any decision or recommendation. To the extent this Article does contain advice, in preparing any such advice in this Article, we have not taken into account any particular person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Furthermore, you may not rely on this message as advice unless subsequently confirmed by letter signed by an authorised representative of WealthLander Pty Ltd (WealthLander). You should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend you obtain financial advice specific to your situation before making any financial investment or insurance decision. WealthLander makes no representation or warranty as to whether the information is accurate, complete or up-to-date. To the extent permitted by law, we accept no responsibility for any misstatements or omissions, negligent or otherwise, and do not guarantee the integrity of the Article (or any attachments). All opinions and views expressed constitute judgment as of the date of writing and may change at any time without notice and without obligation. WealthLander Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR Number 001285158) of Boutique Capital Pty Ltd ACN 621 697 621 AFSL No.508011. |
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20 May 2022 - Hedge Clippings |20 May 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 20 May 2022
Well, with one day to go, we're finally at the end of the road - or depending on one's perspective, one day from the start of a new one. Maybe that should be a fork in the road, depending on one's pronunciation of the word "fork". Come to think of it, with the recorded number of postal votes (for which counting doesn't start until Sunday) and the potential for a hung parliament, the outcome might not be known for a few days, or even weeks. The polls are suggesting a high proportion of undecided voters, or maybe that should be a large number who aren't that happy with Scomo, but haven't been swayed or convinced by the slogans (most, as far as we can work out, devoid of solid policy to back them up) of those hoping to take his place. Slogans or otherwise, it does indicate there's a level of underlying dissatisfaction in general in the community. One Scomo hater (and certainly not undecided) we spoke to this week complained he'd handled COVID badly (actually badly is a polite version of his rant) which of all the negative things he might reference, Scomo's handling of COVID, or the results, shouldn't be in question. This week the USA passed the sad milestone of 1 million COVID related deaths for a population of 332 million or one in every 332 Americans. Australia's COVID fatalities are now at 7,986, or 1 in 3,180 of our population. In round terms, we're 10 times less likely to have died from COVID than an American. While our number is 7,986 more than we'd like it to be, it hardly warrants the criticism that it's been badly handled. Of all the slogans, promises, or policies that have been announced, the most detailed and well publicised has been the respective support from both major parties for first home buyers, which, from our understanding, were both well intentioned, but targeting a different demographic. Albanese's "Help to Buy" policy was narrowly cast, both by virtue of the limit of 10,000 recipients each year, (so only 6.6% of the 150,000 first home buyers each year) and their annual income eligibility - $90,000 for singles, and $120,000 for couples, and only required a deposit of 2%. The government would fund up to 40% of the purchase price interest free, which would be capped depending on location. On the other side, Scomo's "Super Home Buyer Scheme" offer was more widely cast, allowing first home buyers to withdraw up to 40% of their super (up to a maximum of $50,000) to help fund their first home, in reality in most cases making it assistance with raising the deposit. Both schemes have their merits and deficiencies, or at least limitations, depending on one's financial position. A low income purchaser is unlikely to have sufficient super in the first case, and their issue is more likely to be being priced out of the housing market, which Albo's scheme, however limited, would resolve. For the wider audience, and possibly those on a higher income, an extra $50,000 towards the deposit, could make the difference, albeit it would likely be less than 10% of the purchase price of the property. Critics of both schemes came out of the woodwork. Industry Super Australia (ISA) presumably more concerned about missing out on fees than their members being able to gain a foothold in the housing market, (and therefore set themselves up to own their own home outright on retirement) claimed it was financially risky for the new home buyer and would hurt all Australians with a super account. Others said it would push the price of property up and therefore be self defeating. ISA's concern seems somewhat self-serving, given that in both cases the funds "borrowed" have to be returned on the sale of the property, along with a proportion of the capital gain. Over the last 10 years, the average capital gain on city residential property has been 5.61% vs an average of 8% for super, so technically they're correct (except those results were to June 2021 and ignore the latest down-turn). Except that ignores the fact that most aspiring first home buyers would readily forgo 2% p.a. to not paying rent, and at least get a foot on the bottom rung of the (CGT free) property ladder. It's unfortunate, politics being politics, that whoever wins the election can't offer both schemes, one targeted (correctly) at those unlikely to ever own their own property, and the other at those slightly more fortunate, but who still need assistance with their deposit in the over heated (but we suspect falling) property market. Meanwhile, what neither side seemed to have focused on (or have chosen not to) is what happens when the first home buyer wants to "trade up" to their next home in say 10 years' time? Under Albo's scheme (but less under Scomo's) 40% of their first home's sale price will go back from whence it came, meaning they'll either need to stay where they are forever, "trade down", or go back to the government of the day and ask for more. Therein lies an (Oliver) twist. News & Insights New Funds | FundMonitors.com What have rubber bands got to do with successful stock selection? | Insync Fund Managers Nestlé: innovation strengthens the moat | Magellan Asset Management Perception vs Reality: When a good story trumps rationality | Airlie Funds Management |
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April 2022 Performance News Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund |
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20 May 2022 - Performance Report: Paragon Australian Long Short Fund
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Fund Overview | Paragon's unique investment style, comprising thematic led idea generation followed with an in depth research effort, results in a concentrated portfolio of high conviction stocks. Conviction in bottom up analysis drives the investment case and ultimate position sizing: * Both quantitative analysis - probability weighted high/low/base case valuations - and qualitative analysis - company meetings, assessing management, the business model, balance sheet strength and likely direction of returns - collectively form Paragon's overall view for each investment case. * Paragon will then allocate weighting to each investment opportunity based on a risk/reward profile, capped to defined investment parameters by market cap, which are continually monitored as part of Paragon's overall risk management framework. The objective of the Paragon Fund is to produce absolute returns in excess of 10% p.a. over a 3-5 year time horizon with a low correlation to the Australian equities market. |
Manager Comments | The Paragon Australian Long Short Fund has a track record of 9 years and 2 months and has outperformed the ASX 200 Total Return Index since inception in March 2013, providing investors with an annualised return of 13.24% compared with the index's return of 8.57% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has only experienced a negative annual return once in the 9 years and 2 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -27.05% vs the index's -6.35%, and since inception in March 2013 the fund's largest drawdown was -45.11% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -26.75%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in January 2018 and lasted 2 years and 7 months, reaching its lowest point during March 2020. The fund had completely recovered its losses by August 2020. The Manager has delivered these returns with 12.25% more volatility than the index, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 four times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.55 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 69% of the time in rising markets and 45% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 107% and a down-capture ratio of 84%. |
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20 May 2022 - Mid-Cycle correction or a new bear market?
Mid-Cycle correction or a new bear market? Watermark Funds Management April 2022 The question everyone is asking, Is this a mid-cycle slowdown or have we moved into a new bear market for shares? We are firmly in the latter camp. The balance sheet recession that followed the financial crisis was a powerful deflationary force. Households and businesses de-levered while governments exercised fiscal restraint allowing Central banks to reflate without creating inflation. Low growth with deflation was a 'goldilocks' era for risk assets, not too hot and not too cold. In Fig 1 below, you can see four very clear and discrete mini business cycles of four years each starting in March of 2009, as Central Banks' eased and then tightened policy. Together they make up the 14-year secular bull market in shares. The cycle has turned, the bear is here
In each reflation episode, real interest rates moved lower and lower and 'financial assets' such as shares and bonds, moved higher and higher. At the same time as real interest rates turned negative, capital was re-allocated away from short-duration 'hard' assets such as commodities. The share market has followed each of these business cycles peaking on each occasion at the blue advance line in Fig 1 as it has once again in December of last year. As policy support is once again withdrawn we have moved into the next 'cyclical' bear. Market bulls will have you believe policymakers can engineer yet another soft landing, pivot, and reflate one more time. It's highly unlikely this time however as we no longer have these deflationary tailwinds, instead, we have inflation at the highest level in 40 years in many western economies.
In the last tightening cycle in 2018 (Fig 2), the US Federal Reserve started raising interest rates much earlier while the economy was still expanding rapidly (PMI was rising). They didn't even reach the neutral interest rate however where policy pivots from accommodative to restrictive (the dotted line) before economic activity fell sharply and they were forced to reverse course and ease rates again. Back then, inflation was barely at 2%, and the Fed was still trying to push inflation higher! US Federal Reserve Target Interest Rate
This time will be very different, they are late and are tightening as growth slows. Furthermore, to bring inflation back under control, theoretically, policy must 'overshoot'. They need to move beyond the neutral rate (dotted line) to slow demand enough to stimy inflation. Goldman Sachs have suggested this overshoot may require interest rates as high as 4% or above to curb inflation. Interest Rate markets are clearly well below this level today and with an inverted yield curve, bond investors are already signalling a recession is ahead. Given central banks are late and tightening into a slowing economy and the need for a policy overshoot to curb inflation, the prospect of a recession in advanced economies next year is high. A soft landing and another round of asset reflation is equally unlikely. Not just any bear. A new secular bear.This will not just be a 'cyclical' bear market like the four prior episodes but the beginning of a new secular bear where shares move sideways for many years to come. As with secular bulls (the last one lasted 14 years), secular bears typically last 10-15 years
A secular bear market
Strategists often refer to the 1970's secular bear as a precedent for what lies ahead. You can see in Fig 3 above this was not a unique period. Inflation eventually kills most secular bull markets and that should be our base case this time also. It is dangerous to expect this time will be different. Within this secular bear we will still have the four-year business cycle playing out as shares rise and fall, but within a broadly sideways trend. A new secular bear for bonds alsoWith the return of inflation, it looks like the 31-year secular bull in bonds is also now complete. It is clear from the momentum signal in the bottom panel below the low for bond yields (the high for bond prices) is in. Most risk assets are priced off the long bond - the very low yield on these securities has led to a re-rate of other long-duration risk assets like shares. The P/E re-rate of shares and for growth shares in particular is an extension of the depths bond yields have fallen too. As commodities are an inflation hedge, secular trends in commodities have historically been negatively correlated with financial assets. You can see this indicated in red below. A new secular bull market in commodities has probably begun. Secular bear in bonds/a secular bull in commodities
US Treasury Yield % (10 year) Further confirmation of a reversal in bond prices is near to hand. In Fig 5 below you can see bond yields across multiple durations are pushing up against the 30-year downtrend as we speak. If yields break through here, we will be at a seminal moment for risk assets. The 30-year tailwind for share market valuations will have reversed. How it plays out for shares this year
Following the strong bear market rally in March, shares are likely to track sideways in the months ahead but will fall short of prior highs. It is still too early for a major draw, shares still offer decent profit growth this year and analysts are still upgrading profit estimates. Furthermore, with money pouring out of the bond market, investors have few alternatives other than to invest in shares. The next major drawdown in the share market is likely to occur later in the year as economies slow and the street starts cutting profit estimates. As shares start to move lower and investors come to realise there will be no Central Bank bailout this time around, share markets will fall hard led by mega-cap technology - the last and largest bubble still to burst. Closer to home, we may well see a replay of the Teck Wreck and the GFC where the lucky country once again misses the recession bullet given our exposure to a resurgent resources sector. Given our markets' heavy weighting to resources, the ASX may still make a new high in the months ahead. From here, I would advise thinking of the Australian share market as two discrete markets - the All Industrials share market which today is still 7% below the August 2021 high and a resources market which is making new highs as I write this piece. Don't chase it though, the initial advance in commodities is nearly complete. As late cyclicals, resource shares will also fall in the second half of the year as global growth slows. Funds operated by this manager: Watermark Absolute Return Fund, Watermark Australian Leaders Fund, Watermark Market Neutral Fund Ltd (LIC) |
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19 May 2022 - Performance Report: Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy
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Fund Overview | The quantitative model is proprietary and designed in-house. The critical elements are Valuation, Momentum, and Quality (VMQ) and every stock in the global universe is scored and ranked. Verification of the quant model scores is then cross checked by fundamental analysis in which a company's Accounting policies, Governance, and Strategic positioning is evaluated. The manager believes strategy is suited to investors seeking returns from investing in global companies, diversification away from Australia and a risk aware approach to global investing. It should be noted that this is a strategy in an IMA format and is not offered as a fund. An IMA solution can be a more cost and tax effective solution, for clients who wish to own fewer stocks in a long only strategy. |
Manager Comments | The Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy has a track record of 10 years and 9 months and has outperformed the Global Equity Index since inception in August 2011, providing investors with an annualised return of 14.65% compared with the index's return of 13.23% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the strategy has experienced a negative annual return on 2 occasions in the 10 years and 9 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the strategy's largest drawdown was -6.74% vs the index's -10.7%, and since inception in August 2011 the strategy's largest drawdown was -13.33% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -13.19%. The strategy's maximum drawdown began in February 2020 and lasted 1 year, reaching its lowest point during July 2020. The strategy had completely recovered its losses by February 2021. The Manager has delivered these returns with 1.32% more volatility than the index, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 four times over the past five years and which currently sits at 1.08 since inception. The strategy has provided positive monthly returns 88% of the time in rising markets and 13% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 100% and a down-capture ratio of 92%. |
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19 May 2022 - Performance Report: Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund
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Manager Comments | The Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund has a track record of 4 years and 6 months and therefore comparison over all market conditions and against its peers is limited. However, the fund has outperformed the ASX 200 Total Return Index since inception in November 2017, providing investors with an annualised return of 23.5% compared with the index's return of 9.35% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has only experienced a negative annual return once in the 4 years and 6 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -11.38% vs the index's -6.35%, and since inception in November 2017 the fund's largest drawdown was -41.74% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -26.75%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in December 2019 and lasted 10 months, reaching its lowest point during March 2020. The fund had completely recovered its losses by October 2020. The Manager has delivered these returns with 14.55% more volatility than the index, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 three times over the past four years and which currently sits at 0.85 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 81% of the time in rising markets and 35% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 270% and a down-capture ratio of 120%. |
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19 May 2022 - Nestlé: innovation strengthens the moat
Nestlé: innovation strengthens the moat Magellan Asset Management April 2022 Vrimp, the vegan alternative to shrimp, is made from peas, seaweed and konjac root, a vegetable found in Asia. The vEGGie, a vegan egg, is a mixture of soy protein and omega-3 fatty acids. Wunda is a pea-based alternative milk. Offered too are the Vuna, a vegan tuna alternative, and vegan burgers, while an experiment is underway to make vegan chicken that comes with fake skin and bones. These products add to the plant-based dairy alternatives for chocolate, coffee, creamers, ice cream and malt beverages. Such are newest offerings of the Swiss-based Nestlé, the world's biggest food and drinks maker, as it responds to the latest twist in consumer demand. The innovation drive extends to the staples that bring in so much of Nestlé's revenue, which reached 87.1 billion Swiss francs in fiscal 2021, a jump of 7.5% on an organic basis from 2020 and the fastest pace in 13 years. Coffee (26% of fiscal 2021 sales) has benefited from the launch of Starbucks at Home, a tie-up with Starbucks and Nespresso, and a revamped approach to producing Nescafe instant coffee. Bean selection is now approached in much the same way as wine makers grade grapes and there's an organic option. Of note is that in 2021 Nestlé scientists discovered two novel plant varietals of the coffee tree that produces Robusta beans. The result is a jump in yields by up to 50%, lower carbon emissions and people can now enjoy a super-premium barista blend in their soluble coffee. And every second of every day, the world enjoys another 5,500 cups of Nescafé, including the premium Nescafé Gold. The pet care staple (18% of sales) has become personalised (animalised?) and much science has gone into producing healthy high-end labels. In many parts of the world at production volumes that achieve economies of scale, Fido can receive a unique blend of dog food and supplements delivered to the home with his name stamped on the front. For house pets so inclined, there's a pet food line where insects and plant protein from fava beans and millet are mixed with meat. Pet carers are considered too. Improved online ordering means people don't have to lug home heavy packets. The KitKat staple, which was revitalised by a marketing campaign in Japan in 2014 that exploited how the Japanese pronunciation of KitKat (kitto katto) resembles the phrase 'you will win' (kitto katsu), now has stand-alone stores. These 'KitKat bars' offer almost countless flavours including a vegan option (KitKat V) and let people devise their own recipes - 'create your break'. Such is the revamp of a company with a history stretching to 1866 since Mark Schneider became CEO in 2017. Key drivers of success under Schneider include a switch into healthier products such as plant-based foods and vitamins and supplements, and a focus on novel products and faster times to market with the latest offerings. Schneider has reinvigorated the company's portfolio of assets by conducting at least 85 divestments and acquisitions over the past five years. Nestlé shares are trading around the record high set in November last year because investors recognise that an overhauled company with great brands is enjoying a virtuous cycle kicked off by digitalisation. The enhanced consumer insights improve innovation, which leads to the creation and successful launch of better products produced at economies of scale that bestow an unassailable competitive advantage on the company. What brands the company has. Nestlé has 31 'mega-brands' including Coffee mate, Haagen-Dazs ice cream, Maggi noodles, Milo, Nescafé, Nesquik, Nespresso, Purina pet care and San Pellegrino mineral water. Each has loyal consumers, which means these products command a premium price and superior access to supermarket shelves. Each generates global sales of more than one billion Swiss francs every year. Nestlé, in all, boasts 2,000-plus brands that are sold in 186 countries and many hold the No. 1 or No. 2 positions in their categories. The brands are split across seven segments. These are in order of fiscal 2021 sales: powdered & liquid beverages (28%), pet care (18%), nutrition & healthcare (15%), prepared dishes & cooking aids (14%), milk products & ice cream (12%), confectionery (9%) and water (5%). Nestlé's great brands mean the company has steady cash flow and earnings streams no matter the state of the economy. As such, the stock has a 'defensive' appeal, which is why it's held up better than most during the share slide so far in 2022. Since Nestlé is well positioned to achieve its sales growth target of 4% to 6% in coming years, the stock is likely to generate superior returns for investors for a long while yet. To be sure, Nestlé products face ferocious competition. Some products (chocolate) are struggling to boost sales. But the success of coffee and pet foods make up for these laggards. The health push exposes the food processor to charges of hypocrisy because many of its goods are unhealthy and cannot easily be made wholesome. But the company is out to reduce that percentage and sales show junk food is popular enough. For all its global reach, Nestlé is overexposed to a downturn in the US, where it sources about 33% of its sales and profits. The company has warned that higher costs for its agricultural ingredients, packaging, energy and shipping threaten margins. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has intensified that challenge, especially that wheat and energy prices are rising. But as a third of sales come from premium products, Nestlé is better placed than most of its peers. A business that has changed so much since two Americans established the Anglo-Swiss Condensed Milk Company 156 years ago (that eventually merged with a company Henri Nestlé founded to sell milk-based baby food one year later) is used to overcoming challenges. If Nestlé can make such a successful start to going vegan and vegetarian (sales of 800 billion Swiss francs in fiscal 2021), what can't it do? Sources: Company filings and website, Bloomberg News and Dunn & Bradstreet. |
Funds operated by this manager: Magellan Global Fund (Hedged), Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC, Magellan High Conviction Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged), MFG Core Infrastructure Fund Important Information: This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 ('Magellan') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should read and consider any relevant offer documentation applicable to any investment product or service and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making any investment decision. A copy of the relevant PDS relating to a Magellan financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4888 or by visiting www.magellangroup.com.au. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any strategy, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to be implemented and its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of a Magellan financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Magellan makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Magellan. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. Any trademarks, logos, and service marks contained herein may be the registered and unregistered trademarks of their respective owners. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Magellan. |
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18 May 2022 - Performance Report: Insync Global Quality Equity Fund
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Fund Overview | Insync invests in a concentrated portfolio of high quality companies that possess long 'runways' of future growth benefitting from Megatrends. Megatrends are multiyear structural and disruptive changes that transform the way we live our daily lives and result from a convergence of different underlying trends including innovation, politics, demographics, social attitudes and lifestyles. They provide important tailwinds to individual stocks and sectors, that reside within them. Insync believe this delivers exponential earnings growth ahead of market expectations. Insync screens the universe of 40,000 listed global companies to just 150 that it views as superior. This includes profitability, balance sheet performance, shareholder focus and valuations. 20-40 companies are then chosen for the portfolio. These reflect the best outcomes from further analysis using a proprietary DCF valuation, implied growth modelling, and free cash flow yield; alongside management, competitor, and industry scrutiny. The Fund may hold some cash (maximum of 5%), derivatives, currency contracts for hedging purposes, and American and/or Global Depository Receipts. It is however, for all intents and purposes, a 'long-only' fund, remaining fully invested irrespective of market cycles. |
Manager Comments | The Insync Global Quality Equity Fund has a track record of 12 years and 7 months and has outperformed the Global Equity Index since inception in October 2009, providing investors with an annualised return of 12.23% compared with the index's return of 10.9% over the same period. On a calendar year basis, the fund has only experienced a negative annual return once in the 12 years and 7 months since its inception. Over the past 12 months, the fund's largest drawdown was -22.17% vs the index's -10.7%, and since inception in October 2009 the fund's largest drawdown was -22.17% vs the index's maximum drawdown over the same period of -13.59%. The fund's maximum drawdown began in January 2022 and has lasted 3 months, reaching its lowest point during April 2022. During this period, the index's maximum drawdown was -10.7%. The Manager has delivered these returns with 1.48% more volatility than the index, contributing to a Sharpe ratio which has fallen below 1 five times over the past five years and which currently sits at 0.86 since inception. The fund has provided positive monthly returns 82% of the time in rising markets and 21% of the time during periods of market decline, contributing to an up-capture ratio since inception of 83% and a down-capture ratio of 85%. |
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