NEWS
20 Mar 2023 - Manager Insights | PURE Resources Fund
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Chris Gosselin, CEO of FundMonitors.com, speaks with Daniel Porter, Portfolio Manager at PURE Asset Management. The PURE Resources Fund is a specialist hybrid equity fund with an absolute return focus, investing in Australian emerging resource companies. Since inception in April 2021, the fund has returned +9.13% per annum with an annualised volatility of 8.09%.
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20 Mar 2023 - Experiences Rule!
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Experiences Rule! Insync Fund Managers February 2023 The Experience Megatrend, of which travel is a component, is one of 16 in our portfolio. Borders have reopened and travel is at full throttle. Growth rates in this industry are through the roof as the industry powers ahead from the COVID-19 pandemic. An individual's desire to travel is hardwired into human DNA. The rapid speed with which the recovery is occurring can be seen from the chart on the right; this is before China's reopening has its likely large impact.
Whilst airlines and cruise ships may be the more obvious ways to invest in this megatrend, they come with high levels of financial and operational risk. Companies like Qantas have had to raise capital every time there is a crisis. Their long-term performance has never reached our minimum quality hurdles. Our work has identified online travel agents are best positioned to deliver some of the highest and most consistent levels of profitability in this megatrend. No capital raisings were required, despite the shutdown in travel because of their exceptionally strong balance sheets. As we move into an environment where the use of digital apps to efficiently build travel itineraries accelerates (including researching, booking, and paying), investing in online travel agents should provide one of the highest quality ways to participate in the resurgence and secular growth in travel. Funds operated by this manager: Insync Global Capital Aware Fund, Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Disclaimer |
17 Mar 2023 - Hedge Clippings | 17 March 2023
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Hedge Clippings | 17 March 2023 With friends like Keating, Albo doesn't need enemies! This week saw former PM Paul Keating, the Labor Party's elder statesman, and in his day chief head-kicker of the Liberal Party, give an almighty serve to PM Anthony Albanese, his deputy and Minister for Defence, Richard Marles, and Foreign Minister Penny Wong. This was vintage Keating, except it seems he's become a grumpy old man. Once upon a time he mixed sarcasm and humour to make his point. This time it was pure bile, and all the more extraordinary as it was aimed at his own troops. With friends like that, who needs enemies? In our view it was also hypocritical of Keating to say of Penny Wong: "Running around the Pacific Islands with a lei around your neck handing out money, which is what Penny does, is not foreign policy. It's a consular task." For the record, below is a photo of the then PM wearing what looks like a cross between - we're not even sure how to describe it - and wearing a lei around his neck, back in the day when he thought he was the Messiah. An opinion of himself he obviously still holds. Both the photo above and Wednesday's verbal spew were of course theatrics, but what's apparent is that Xi Jinping's hand is seriously manipulating somewhere up the back of the Keating puppet. He seems to think China is blameless, faultless, and just a benign and growing power in the Pacific, and around the globe. Forget human rights abuses, forget the facts, forget playing the ball - play the man, or in this case the woman. And when Keating was asked a question he didn't want to answer - by a young (female) journalist - he used the old get-out-of-jail put down response: "the question is so dumb, it's hardly worth an answer." And to another journalist's question on human rights and the treatment of Uyghur minorities in Xinjiang, he said it was open to debate, and deflected the question by referring to India's treatment of Muslims. Here's what Amnesty International say about China's approach to Ethnic Autonomous Regions: "The (Chinese) government took extreme measures to prevent free communications, independent investigations, and accurate reporting from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang) and Tibet Autonomous Region (Tibet). The government continued to implement far-reaching policies that severely restricted the freedoms of Muslims in Xinjiang. These policies violated multiple human rights, including the rights to liberty and security of person; privacy; freedom of movement, opinion, and expression, thought, conscience, religion, and belief; participation in cultural life; and to equality and non-discrimination." Keating's approach is, and always has been, to tip a bucket on anyone with the temerity to challenge his bigoted view of whatever subject he chooses to be an expert on. And there aren't many he doesn't! He obviously loves China, and equally hates America. As for the cost of the submarines under the AUKUS deal, it is budgeted at A$368 bn. in total through to the mid 2050's. China's announced defense budget this year alone is US$224.8bn. (A$321bn.) up 7.2% in 2022, although the Center for Strategic and International Sudies (CSIS) reports the actual figure maybe 1.1 to 2 times higher than the official budget. According to this search of Google, China has 79 submarines, 12 of which are nuclear powered and armed. China's defense spending in 2021 was higher than the next 13 Indo-Pacific countries combined. No doubt Keating will pooh pooh those figures as well. One can argue the cost and the strategic and military wisdom of the AUKUS deal, but while Keating's kow-towing to China might win Xi's praise, it won't win his respect. And while there's some months to go yet, it's our guess he's off Albo's Christmas card list this year! Moving right along... Good to see Ken Henry re-enter the fray, arguing for a complete re-think of Australia's over complex and outdated tax structure. However, as we argued in last week's Hedge Clippings, finding politicians of any persuasion to grapple with the issue won't be easy. But maybe if there's bi-partisan support for AUKUS submarines, there's a chance? Contagion in the banking system has been front and centre of the financial pages since SVB ran out of cash last week, thanks to rumours that spread virally via social media and Silicon Valley's IT savvy elite, with the problem spreading to First Republic Bank. At this stage, it seems that the contagion, while real, will be contained by all banks standing shoulder to shoulder, but it's a clear reminder that when faced with the potential for loss of capital, bank depositors large and small will act first, and ask questions later. And finally, Happy St Patrick's Day to the (reported) 70 million people of Irish heritage who live outside Ireland, and to the 7 million who still inhabit the Emerald Isle. Ireland plays England in the six nations rugby in Dublin tomorrow, and based on form should win hands down, as long as the Irish team didn't overdo their St Patrick's day celebrations beforehand. |
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News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Manager Insights | PURE Resources Fund The Long and The Short: Could the year ahead defy the Fed? | Kardinia Capital Stock Story: Walmart | Magellan Asset Management February 2023 Performance News Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Bennelong Australian Equities Fund L1 Capital Long Short Fund (Monthly Class) |
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17 Mar 2023 - Performance Report: Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund
[Current Manager Report if available]
17 Mar 2023 - Stock Story: Walmart
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Stock Story: Walmart Magellan Asset Management January 2023 |
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Sam Walton opened the first Walmart discount store in 1962, in the small Midwestern town of Rogers, Arkansas (population just 5,700 at the time). From these humble beginnings, Walmart grew into a retailing giant that today serves hundreds of millions of customers each week in its >10,500 stores across 24 countries. In financial year 2022, Walmart generated more than $572 billion in sales of groceries and other merchandise, making it the world's largest retailer. At year-end 2022, the company employed a total of 2.3 million people, making it the world's largest private employer as well. So how were such success and scale achieved? Over the past 60 years Walmart has followed a consistent strategy of providing the lowest possible price (Every Day Low Prices, or EDLP) for a broad assortment of products. Despite its somewhat staid reputation, Walmart has been an early adopter of new technologies and has a history of innovation. It was a pioneer of bar code scanning and analysing sales information, and in the mid-1980s it launched its own satellite network to stay in touch with its growing distribution and store network. Over time, the company has built a wide economic moat derived from scale-based efficiencies and capabilities, a persistent focus on frugality and customer value, and a strong brand that communicates this focus. One of Walmart's key competitive advantages is its unrivalled scale. As one of the largest retailers in the world, the company has significant purchasing power, which allows it to negotiate lower prices from suppliers. This in turn allows Walmart to offer lower prices to customers, driving higher sales (with volumes more than compensating for lower prices) and further increasing its competitive advantage. Additionally, Walmart's size allows it to invest heavily in technology and infrastructure, which further helps to improve efficiency and reduce costs. Another key element of Walmart's moat is its strong brand recognition and reputation. The company is known for its low prices and wide selection of products, which has helped it to attract and retain a large customer base. In recent years, Walmart has also focused on expanding its e-commerce capabilities. The company has invested heavily in its online offering and in-store pickup/ delivery, and today, Walmart.com is a major player in the online retail space. This has helped Walmart stay competitive in the face of growing competition from online-only retailers like Amazon. Despite its success, Walmart has faced criticism over the years. One concern is the company's impact on small businesses and local communities. Some critics argue that Walmart's expansion has led to the closure of small, locally owned stores, hurting the local economy. However, Walmart has also made efforts to be a positive force in the communities where it operates. The company has a long history of philanthropy and has donated billions of dollars to charitable causes around the world. Walmart has also implemented a number of initiatives to reduce its environmental impact, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing the use of renewable energy. One example of Walmart's commitment to sustainability is the company's Project Gigaton. Launched in 2017, this initiative aims to reduce one billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions from the company's supply chain by 2030. For comparison, that is as much as the US Government's Inflation Reduction Act aims to cut by the same date. To achieve this goal, Walmart is working with suppliers, NGOs and other partners to identify and implement sustainable practices throughout the supply chain. About 4,500 suppliers accounting for more than 70% of Walmart's sales have signed up, making it the largest private sector initiative of its kind. In addition to environmental sustainability, Walmart has focused on social sustainability. The company has a number of initiatives in place to promote diversity and inclusion at the employee and supplier levels, and it takes a leading role working with NGOs to promote ethical recruitment and working practices throughout its supply chain. Overall, Walmart's business history has been one of steady growth and innovation. The company's competitive advantages, including its vast scale, consistent strategy and strong brand, have allowed it to become one of the biggest retailers in the world. And while Walmart has faced criticism in the past, it has also made significant efforts to be a positive force in the world through initiatives focused on sustainability and social responsibility. Sources: Walmart Annual Report 2022, company filings. |
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Funds operated by this manager: Magellan Global Fund (Hedged), Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC, Magellan High Conviction Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged), MFG Core Infrastructure Fund Important Information: This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 ('Magellan') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should read and consider any relevant offer documentation applicable to any investment product or service and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making any investment decision. A copy of the relevant PDS relating to a Magellan financial product or service may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4888 or by visiting www.magellangroup.com.au. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any strategy, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to be implemented and its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of a Magellan financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Magellan makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Magellan. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. Any trademarks, logos, and service marks contained herein may be the registered and unregistered trademarks of their respective owners. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Magellan. |
16 Mar 2023 - Performance Report: Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund
[Current Manager Report if available]
16 Mar 2023 - Performance Report: Bennelong Australian Equities Fund
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16 Mar 2023 - Thoughts on the BOJ you might not have heard, but should consider
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Thoughts on the BOJ you might not have heard, but should consider Nikko Asset Management February 2023 Firstly, due to its importance, although few seem to be discussing it in the heat of the moment, Japan's inflation outlook, like the rest of the world, should greatly improve in the coming quarters, with consensus expecting January's headline CPI announced this week, or February's, likely to be the peak in year-on-year (YoY) terms, and then drop below 2% in the 3Q and to 1.4% in the 4Q. This would put, unlike in the US or Eurozone, inflation back below Japan's target, and, thus, will greatly relieve pressure on the new leadership at the BOJ and the Government overall. Also noteworthy is that Japan's western-style core CPI, which also excludes all food items, is only around 2% YoY now. No consensus forecasts are available for this latter figure, but it certainly seems that it should be significantly lower later this year. Also crucially important to this topic is that Japan is likely the least inflationary country in the world, with workers hardly ever striking and rarely changing jobs for higher salary. Like current Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's stance, many in the BOJ will want to see more than just one round of substantial wage hikes before believing a virtuous cycle of disinflationary growth is sustainable. Indeed, many large companies are preferring to give special inflation bonuses rather than permanent, major wage hikes. Meanwhile, many SMEs apparently are not able to pay much more at all to labour this year, although minimum wage rates are rising. Furthermore, clearly Japan's GDP has been sluggish for decades and partly due to demographics, should not greatly excel after a quarter or two of acceleration due to increased tourism. Indeed, Japanese consumers currently are far from optimistic and have curtailed spending recently due to high inflation, with it likely requiring a sustained period of lower inflation before they become comfortable with spending more fully. It is important to note the BOJ's historical context, as tightening just before recessions has been the bane of several BOJ Governors in the past, with 20/20- hindsight critics lambasting such as "mistakes". Indeed, Kuroda would very likely have been right in rejecting a broadening the YCC band, given the fact that China's economy was weakening under the zero-COVID Policy, and that the G-7 looked likely to enter recession, not to mention war uncertainties, but Xi Jinping's pivot to re-open and accelerate the economy, coupled with the resilience of the G-7 economies, forced a change in the BOJ's outlook, so it took action in December to broaden the band. Clearly, the damage to many households and the government deficit would be quite large if official policy rate rises. The former have a very large portion of mortgages on a variable rate, and the monthly payments on such would greatly increase, thus harming the economy. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) likely viewed the US Congressional Bureau Office's new fiscal budget projections on interest expenses with great concern given Japan's high debt to GDP ratio. No one except some wolfish hedge funds, wants Japan to experience a crisis, as such would likely have very negative global implications, with Japan likely selling large amounts of US Treasuries and other bonds, even after last year's major sales, to bolster its domestic markets. Lastly in this regard, it bears noting that fears of a JGB crisis have existed for two decades, but Japan's economic circumstances and domestic considerations have long confounded the JGB sceptics. New BOJ leadership and team effortThe process for choosing the BOJ's leadership was confusing, as political developments in Japan often are, but optimists are calling the result a "dream team" and the nominees are all certainly highly qualified and capable. Shinichi Uchida, the Deputy Governor nominee basically in charge of internally-sourced advice and implementation of monetary policy, was an architect of the YCC policy and the negative interest rate policy (NIRP) as a senior BOJ Director since 2012. He will be a source of tremendous knowledge of the benefits and difficulties of both these and other policies, such that no BOJ decisions will be erroneously based and each will be implemented effectively. Ryozo Himino, the other Deputy Governor nominee, most recently headed MOF's Financial Services Bureau and held leadership posts there in its international division from 2016. He also was secretary-general of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and chaired the Financial Stability Board's Standing Committee on Supervisory and Regulatory Cooperation, which are amongst the highest posts in the international financial system. Thus, he is well known and respected domestically and internationally, and should easily be able to deal with all financial sector developments. Rather quiet and professorial, Governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda is greatly respected domestically, and given his academic credentials, a PhD under Stanley Fischer at MIT and a Tokyo University professor for many of the top BOJ and MOF staff over several decades, as well as serving on the BOJ board for seven years two decades ago, he should quickly garner international respect. Indeed, his academic qualifications are more robust than most G-7 central bankers. In public, he is likely to be somewhat arcane and highly technical in his explanations, a bit like Alan Greenspan was, when faced with questions in the Diet and by reporters. Press conferences might be rather short, not abounding in new information and somewhat inconclusive, partly due to his style but also because the BOJ and everyone else is waiting to see how this unique global situation develops in the next few months before making any momentous decisions. In the meantime, economists have been perusing Ueda's past comments and most of such have been quite dovish during the last few decades, but he has shown greater concern than Kuroda regarding the market distortions caused by some BOJ policies. However, once taking the mantle of responsibility, leaders often do not follow their ideals so strictly, especially when faced with a complex and critically important situation. This is especially applicable given that he is often called much more of a pragmatist than an ideologue, which should also affect the style and speed of policy. Lastly in this regard, the BOJ's future will be a team effort, including the Deputy Governors, the rest of the policy board and inputs from the public and private sector, so one should not place too much importance or criticism on one person. All central bank leaders rely heavily upon their professional staff, and success is never easy, especially in today's circumstances, so one should consider the capability of the entire team, which in Japan's case, seems very strong, well-balanced and likely very well coordinated. OutlookCurrently, there is a wide variety of predictions for the BOJ's actions, with some expecting imminent hawkish decisions based upon some of Ueda's "anti-distortion" comments, but changes are more likely to be gradual and tentative assuming the global economy continues improving. However, if the global economy actually remains very sluggish, coupled with declining inflation, the BOJ may not need to change much at all. If there are any changes, it may first tinker with NIRP to make it less burdensome to the few institutions that are affected by it. This would conform with Ueda's desire to remove market distortions and also with the global trend away from negative rates. Further broadening the YCC band is possible this year, but not assured. Meanwhile, it doesn't seem that just shifting the target to 5-years from 10-years conforms with Ueda's "anti-distortion" preference. ConclusionInvestors can be patient regarding predictions of the BOJ's actions over the coming months, while also analysing how the global economy transpires as a major factor in its deliberations. They can have confidence that skilled persons lead the effort and that Japan's circumstances will lead to substantially lower inflation, and, thus, reduced worries about BOJ policy and Japan's financial markets. Author: John Vail, Chief Global Strategist Funds operated by this manager: Nikko AM ARK Global Disruptive Innovation Fund, Nikko AM Global Share Fund, Nikko AM New Asia Fund, Important disclaimer information |
15 Mar 2023 - Performance Report: Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged)
[Current Manager Report if available]
15 Mar 2023 - Performance Report: Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund
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