NEWS
Firstly, good riddance to 2022, which for most investors and the majority of fund managers was a year they'd happily forget.
20 Jan 2023 - Hedge Clippings |20 January 2023
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 20 January 2023 Welcome to the first edition of Hedge Clippings for 2023. Firstly, good riddance to 2022, which for most investors and the majority of fund managers was a year they'd happily forget. The cause of most of the damage was the sharp increase in interest rates, triggered in turn by an outbreak of inflation, as noted by L1 Capital in their December performance report:
The last sentence reveals why so many funds struggled in 2022. No one expected an inflationary break out, thus market expectations - including those of central banks - for rates rises were subdued, to say the least. Throw in the unexpected invasion of Ukraine in February, plus turmoil in China, and it's easy to see why only 29% of the 700+ funds in the FundMonitors database, (including the above mentioned L1 Capital's Global Long Short Fund which returned 9.8%) provided positive returns for the year, and less than a quarter of all equity funds managed to outperform the ASX 200 Accumulation Index. Put bluntly, central banks, including our own RBA, and economists were caught looking in the wrong direction, and thus fund managers had to readjust to the new environment, which by the last quarter of the year many had managed to do. The ASX fared better than most global markets, falling 1.08% on an accumulation basis, while the S&P500 was down 18%, and the NASDAQ fell 33%. Unusually in times of equity market turmoil, bond markets didn't provide a safe haven. Looking forward, it seems inflation, while still a major issue, may have peaked in the last quarter of 2022, particularly in the US where it dropped to 6.45% in December, down from 9.06% in June. Meanwhile, in the UK the December annual inflation figure was 10.5%, down slightly from 10.7% the previous month. That may allow central banks to ease off on further rate rises, but we are unlikely to see rates fall until much later in the year, by which time the looming recession will have been confirmed. So while the path ahead is not going to be easy, and is still uncertain, hopefully, there are less unknowns: The war in Ukraine will drag on, and hopefully not escalate further. China remains a 50/50 bet, although a far cry from the economic and political juggernaut it seemed to be a couple of years ago. COVID, whilst remaining a threat thankfully seems to be receding or at least becoming more manageable. Of course, thinking that the bad news is already out there is dangerous - the unexpected is always just around the corner. But compared to this time last year, surely markets are more prepared for what might lie ahead? |
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News & Insights Market Commentary | Glenmore Asset Management Market Update | Australian Secure Capital Fund December 2022 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) |
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22 Dec 2022 - Hedge Clippings |22 December 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 22 December 2022 For our final Hedge Clippings of the year, we thought we'd look back 12 months for some inspiration, namely from the last edition of 2021, when we noted that the "certainty of uncertainty persists, along with the realisation that COVID will be with us for some time." One year on, and COVID's certainly still with us, although like many things, it seems we're learning to live with it. Elsewhere our prediction of more uncertainty proved 100% correct, with the war in Ukraine sparking inflation, and in turn unexpected rate rises, and thus the inevitable collapse of the era of easy money, and with it the tech boom. We haven't heard a report of Charlie Munger's response to the rout in Bitcoin and the crypto-sphere, but we're sure it would actually be predictable. In hindsight (easy-peasy) Scomo's demise was obvious, although the Teals' success caught most (even themselves) by surprise. We're not sure if Albo's victory caught anyone by surprise, but his smooth transition and avoidance of political potholes was welcome. Maybe the uncertainties in that regard are waiting in next May's (real) budget. Less predictable in 2022 was Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter (surely a thought bubble?) followed by his equally unpredictable self-firing, the seeming disintegration of the government in the UK, the boredom of Netflix's $100m Ginge and Whinge show, China's COVID lockdown, and the fact that the ASX was one of the better performing (albeit negative) global markets. Looking forward to 2023: The R word is likely to dominate as recession either looms (or deepens depending on location) as inflation stays stronger for longer, and interest rates follow suit - even if the pace of rate rises eases, they're unlikely to start falling until 2024. Sadly there seems no quick end in sight to the war in Ukraine unless Russian mothers tire of seeing their sons return injured - or worse as the case may be. Penny Wong has started the reconciliation process with China, and once a suitable period has passed to allow sufficient face-saving (or should that be a sufficient period to allow suitable face-saving?) we suspect normality will resume, whatever normality means. Lachlan Murdoch is intent on continuing to rescue the reputation of his, and we presume the Murdoch family's, name from the "serious harm" inflicted by Crikey, which of course leads us to the Trump saga. Will it ever end? No doubt the lawyers hope not. More immediately, Hedge Clippings is looking forward to a short break and recharging the batteries before starting all over again next year. We'll be back in the latter half of January. Meanwhile, from all the team at FundMonitors.com we would like to take this opportunity to wish you and your loved ones a Happy Christmas, and a Healthy and Prosperous New Year! |
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News & Insights New Funds on FundMonitors.com Trip Insights: United States | 4D Infrastructure Investment Perspectives: The yield curve, recessions and soft landings | Quay Global Investors November 2022 Performance News Insync Global Capital Aware Fund Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) |
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16 Dec 2022 - Hedge Clippings |16 December 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 16 December 2022 As 2022 drags to an end, it's worth taking a backward glance at the year just (almost) gone, if for no other reason than to try to fathom out what's in store in 2023. Hindsight being a wonderful thing, the backward glance is a much easier task than the crystal ball, but let's see how we go. The year has been dominated globally by two major occurrences - Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and an outbreak of inflation. Neither were widely anticipated by the vast majority of us, although no doubt political and security analysts perhaps had an inkling of the potential for Putin to upset the order of things. While the situation on the ground in Ukraine has been catastrophic, the economic effects have impacted the world at large, including a significant increase in energy costs, and as a result inflation. However, inflationary pressures were already building, and even if central banks around the world saw it coming, they were slow to act on it. Enter COVID - although to be fair 2022 was the third year that COVID-19 had dominated the world, and wreaked its own havoc. The difference this year has been the opening up of the global economy post the COVID induced lockdowns, with the exception of China where XI went in the opposite direction. Supply chain issues, a tight labour market, pent up consumer demand (thanks in part to a massive build up of government support), zero to negative interest rates, and seemingly unstoppable speculative markets all intertwined to create the perfect inflationary storm. As noted above, central banks were generally slow to react with higher interest rates, with the RBA no exception, but equally, not alone in doing "too little, too late". Looking forward there are some signs that inflation (in the US in any event) may have peaked, but that's largely as a result of oil falling from over US$120 per barrel mid year to circa $70 in December. And the US FED's Jerome Powell made it abundantly clear overnight that a slight dip in inflation in the short term isn't going to change their objective of getting it back into the 2-3% range. Which brings us to next year. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending - so much for a temporary military exercise! A recession in the UK is a forgone conclusion (if not already a reality), and there's a widespread view that the only way US inflation gets back to the 2-3% target is by inducing a recession there as well. The influential Economist magazine says a global recession in 2023 is "inevitable" and notes that the editors of the Collins English Dictionary have declared "permacrisis" to be their word of the year for 2022. In case you're not familiar with the word, it is defined as an "an extended period of instability and insecurity", which as the Economist notes, "is an ugly portmanteau that accurately encapsulates today's world as 2023 dawns." A quick Google search of "is a recession inevitable" will give you 6.6m references or links, although time and space (plus the fact that unless you're an economic weirdo you'll get bored after the first few) precludes us from adding any more in Hedge Clippings. That's pretty sobering language on a global view, but what of our rather large southern portion of the globe? We haven't been immune to inflation, or to most, if not all, the issues noted above. Of course we have also been on the outer with China, who have their own set of issues to deal with. However, we are, as ever, the "lucky country" even if it might not seem that way, given the events of the past two or three years. As such, there'll always be opportunities, and fund managers and their funds able to make the most of them. This week we include a video interview with Rob Gregory from Glenmore Asset Management, whose Australian Equities Fund is one of the Top Ten Performing funds over one (7%), three (14%), and five (19%) years in the Equity Long Small/Mid Cap Peer Group, no mean feat given that the Peer Group as a whole has struggled in 2022. As Rob explains, much of his success this year can be attributed to avoiding the pitfalls, as much as picking the winners. You can see the interview below. Finally, this will be our last Hedge Clippings for 2022, unless we sneak one in next Thursday as a special Christmas treat (!). Thank you for bearing with our views, ponderings, and political biases on Friday afternoons over the past year, and we look forward to catching up again in 2023. In the meantime, best wishes and happiness to you and your loved ones for the holiday season, wherever you may be. |
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News & Insights Manager Insights | Glenmore Asset Management The energy development opportunity for European offshore wind | 4D Infrastructure Net Zero Megatrend | Insync Fund Managers November 2022 Performance News Quay Global Real Estate Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy |
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9 Dec 2022 - Hedge Clippings |09 December 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 09 December 2022 |
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News & Insights Stock Story: ASML | Magellan Asset Management Investment Perspectives: No, bond vigilantes don't exist for a monetary sovereign | Quay Global Investors November 2022 Performance News L1 Capital Long Short Fund (Monthly Class) Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund |
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2 Dec 2022 - Hedge Clippings |02 December 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 02 December 2022 For the first time this year market analysts - or at least the media - are hinting that the interest rate medicine we've collectively been taking to curb inflation might be working, and as a result, the US Fed and Australia's RBA might take a breather on the size of future rate increases. Jerome Powell indicated as such this week, saying they might start as soon as December, while also cautioning that there was "still a long way to go in restoring price stability." Meanwhile, in Australia the ABS released monthly inflation figures this week, for the first time providing a monthly rather than a quarterly report, which showed annual inflation at 6.9% to the end of October, down from September's number of 7.3%. In his last statement on November 1, RBA Governor Philip Lowe expected inflation to peak around 8% by the end of the year, so there's some cause for optimism, even though his past (admittedly longer term) forecasting hasn't always been spot on. There's also a slight caveat on the make up of the ABS' monthly inflation numbers, which only measures 63% of the CPI basket, excluding for instance electricity and gas prices, which - unless you're living "off the grid" or under a rock - you might have noticed have been on the rise recently. With their board meeting next Tuesday, we won't have long to wait to see if the RBA holds off on their next rate increase, but most economists think not, having "only" increased them by 0.25% in October and November, and with a 2 month gap to the next meeting in February 2023. Meanwhile, it's worth remembering that in the US there's room to "ease off" as rates there rose by 0.75% in each of June, July, September, and November. Meanwhile, equity markets, renowned for pricing in future conditions and earnings, are pretty confident that the worst is over, with the ASX 200 in November posting its second successive monthly rise of over 6%, to take its 12 month return into positive territory, up (just) 0.39%. Adding in dividends, the total 12 month return was a not so shabby 5%, or just over 2% YTD since January. That doesn't mean everything has recovered, with the ASX Small Industrials down 21% over 12 months and the same YTD. For comparison purposes, the S&P 500's Total Return was down 9.21% over 12 months to the end of November, and -13.1% YTD, while for some really eye watering gyrations, the S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Market Index has toppled -71% over 12 months, having been UP 296% over 12 months to November 2021. All this goes to show that markets move in different ways at different times. There is no "one" market, hence the need for analysis and asset allocation. Investors and fund managers understand the cycles, even if they are frustrated by them at times when their preferred strategy or sector is facing headwinds, while other sectors are benefiting from tailwinds. This was shown best by the growth/value divergence (and subsequent reversal) of the past five years and is also reflected in the popularity and performance of specific investment strategies and sectors we see in the FundMonitors.com database. One such sector has been the significant, but often overlooked, fixed income sector, encompassing debt and credit funds which lack popular media appeal while equities (and the tech/growth sector in particular) often dominate investor and media interest. In falling markets the attraction of regular income and capital protection come into their own, potentially with a yield of 6-10%. Out of this has emerged a Peer Group of hybrid funds, blending credit and equity, or equity like elements, designed to provide the regular income needs of investors, coupled with either equity upside and/or downside protection. While no two funds are the same, the Hybrid Credit Peer Group comprises a variety of funds with varying investment processes and performances, and their returns and risk profiles have shown the benefits of the approach. For example, FundMonitors has recently completed a FACTORS Research Report on the *Altor AltFi Income Fund, which "invests via a portfolio of private credit instruments (loans) across a selected group of small to medium enterprises. Investors receive quarterly cash distributions, and gain further upside through free attaching equity exposure on selected debt investments the Fund makes" and has returned over 11% p.a. over 4 years since inception, with a Sharpe Ratio of 3.93%. Along similar lines is a new fund from *Collins St. Asset Management, which invests in convertible notes, targeting distributions of 2% per quarter [8% per annum], with the potential for equity upside on conversion of the loan at the end of the term. This week we caught up with Rob Hay from Collins St. to discuss the strategy, and you can watch the video below. These funds also seek to fill a gap in the funding market for smaller and medium sized companies, both listed and private, which was created post the Hayne Royal Commission as Banks and traditional lenders left the market, or restricted lending to the sector. *Both these funds are only open to wholesale or sophisticated investors. Past performance is no guarantee, and investors should seek appropriate advice. |
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Manager Insights | Collins St Asset Management The Long and The Short: Five stocks for the next five years | Kardinia Capital 10k Words | Equitable Investors October 2022 Performance News |
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25 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |25 November 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 25 November 2022 "One swallow doth not a summer make" So goes the old saying - just how old might surprise some readers, given its origin can be traced back to the Greek philosopher Aristotle, (384-322 BC) following which its first recorded use in the English language was more recently in 1539. But we digress, because we're using the phrase to describe the economy, and markets, which following a dismal year to date, not only had a welcome bounce or spring in October but have continued onward and upward in November. Time will tell if that's two "swallows" in a row, but it is certainly welcome. |
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New Funds on FundMonitors.com Australian Secure Capital Fund - Market Update October | Australian Secure Capital Fund What drives poor returns? | Insync Fund Managers 4D inflation podcast (part 2): The US Inflation Reduction Act | 4D Infrastructure October 2022 Performance News Glenmore Australian Equities Fund Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) Bennelong Emerging Companies Fund |
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18 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |18 November 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 18 November 2022 As we glide, slide or stagger towards the last few weeks of what will go down as a pretty forgettable year (unless you are Anthony Albanese who continues his dream start as PM) it is worth considering that thanks to a recent rally, the Australian equity market has performed well against its US equivalent. Australian managed funds - although as a whole positive in October - have found it a difficult year as well, with the average equity based fund on the FundMonitors.com data base down 11.31% over 12 months to the end of October, vs. a fall of just 2.01% for the ASX200 total return index. Over the same 12 months (based on 88% of the results to date) only 16% of equity funds managed to outperform the ASX 200, which will no doubt be taken as welcome news by the fans of index or passive funds. However, we believe that misses the point - namely that just as the performance of individual stocks within the index varies, so too will the performance of managed funds. The key, depending on one's strategy or objective, is to select the outperformers. For instance, over 12 months the performance of the Top 10 funds has ranged from 19.8% through to 43.7%, while over 3 years the range has been 17.97% to 44.67% per annum. Over 5 years the number drops, but the best performing fund - Glenmore Australian Equities - returned 19% pa. followed by Regal's Small Companies Fund at 18.25% and with Bennelong's Emerging Companies Fund in third place at 17.41%. Consistency is not always easy to achieve: Of the Top 10 funds over 5 years, only 5 funds were positive over 1, 2, 3 and 4 years as well (Glenmore, Samuel Terry, Regal Amazon, GQC Global, and Australian Eagle's Long Short Fund) which probably underlines how difficult 2022 has been, particularly in the small cap space. Added to the variability of returns has been the rise - and fall - of crypto funds, which took out 3 of the Top 10 spots over 2 and 3 years, but to the surprise of no one, take out 5 places among the 10 worst performing funds over 1 year. When it comes to investing in managed funds, success is a combination of careful research and diversification. |
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Magellan Global Strategy Update | Magellan Asset Management Drawdowns and small stocks for God-like performance | Equitable Investors October 2022 Performance News Bennelong Australian Equities Fund Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Insync Global Capital Aware Fund |
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11 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |11 November 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 11 November 2022 Superannuation in the spotlight Australia's compulsory super system came under fire this week - or, to be more accurate the inequality of the generous taxation treatment it provides those with higher incomes and higher super balances came under attack. From small beginnings way back in the 1980s, and the love child of Paul Keating and, from memory Bill Kelty (where's Google when you need it?) "Super" has been a super success by all accounts. Unfortunately, it has been tweaked - or raided - over the years, generally by politicians and in particular treasurers who couldn't and can't help themselves, particularly when it comes to other peoples' retirement savings. Having said that, John Howard was probably an exception, looking after his "battlers" with a generous lump sum contribution, which was great as long as you were one of the battlers able to take advantage of it. The issue now appears to be that the Super pie has grown to such an extent, and which is forecast to double again in the not too distant future, that the 15% concessional tax rate on contributions, and the tax free rate when in retirement phase, is costing the budget a motza - particularly for those lucky enough, or smart with high balances. This goes against the grain normally applying to income, wealth, and tax. Normally, unless you're a Kerry Packer, the more one earns, and in many places in the world, the more one is worth, the higher your tax rate. We would hasten to add that Hedge Clippings is no expert when it comes to Super, as might be deduced from the simple explanation above. However, there are a number of arguments both ways, as well as a number of other flaws in the system which were either not recognised previously, or were possibly kicked down the road for some other government to address. The concessional tax rates applying to Super undoubtedly favour those better off, but they're not the ones to blame. The politics of envy being what they are however, it is much easier to now make the beneficiaries out to be the villains. They simply applied the rules as they stood at the time to their best advantage. There would seem to be other issues with Super at the mid to lower end of the scale as well. While accepting the argument that after 40 plus years working and contributing (even if you had no choice and it was your employer doing so) that your lump sum is "yours", surely the majority of it should be paid as a pension or annuity to ensure you don't rely on the welfare system for the remaining 20 plus years you are expected to live for? Irrespective, the stage has been set for yet another re-work of the overly complicated Super rules come next year's budget. In the meantime, we're just being softened up for it by some well placed PR. Finally we can't let the subject of politicians and Super pass without taking a swipe at their own pension arrangements down in Canberra. From memory, non contributory, and at 15% plus, with various other perks, that's inequality! Don't expect that to change in next May's budget papers! Meanwhile to markets: Cryptocurrencies were hammered further this week following the failure of FTX, a crypto exchange, reinforcing the danger not only of the coins themselves, but also the added counterparty risk in an unregulated market. And finally, US markets had their best day on record when inflation came in ahead of expectations. Or could it have been partly the expectation that Donald Trump's "Red Wave" had made not much more than a ripple? |
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Webinar Recording - New Investment Opportunity & Fund Update | Collins St Asset Management 4D inflation podcast (part 1): Paul Volcker, central banks, and the UK | 4D Infrastructure October 2022 Performance News Bennelong Long Short Equity Fund Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund 4D Global Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged) Bennelong Twenty20 Australian Equities Fund |
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4 Nov 2022 - Hedge Clippings |04 November 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 04 November 2022
Last week's Hedge Clippings left the subject of Jim Chalmers and his first budget well alone, probably because at first sight there didn't seem to be much to it. Apart from flagging that inflation was an issue, that energy prices were rising, it left the hard decisions to be made in next year's May budget. It seemed to us that for the time being the government was keen to deliver on some core deliverables while making sure they didn't break the core promises made during the election campaign, and in doing so frighten the punters - aside of course from the promise to deliver lower energy prices. As such, Chalmers kicked the can down the road to the May budget, while at the same time softening us up for the fact that times are going to get tougher, and that inflation was "the number one scourge" while there wasn't much he's going to be able to do about it. The fact is that inflation both here and abroad shows no sign of easing - in fact, the opposite, particularly given the lagging effect of floods - and in spite of the efforts of central banks to try to curb it. As such, this week's rate hike came as little surprise, and the RBA's increase of 0.25% seemed almost insignificant compared with the US Fed's 0.75%, with the same from the Bank of England. One thing seems certain - the outlook for inflation is deteriorating, at the same time as its duration is extending. Inevitably interest rates will keep rising until the inflation trend reverses, and in the interim - however long that may end up being - the potential for a recession, particularly in the US, and the UK - keeps rising in line with the interest rates. If we cast our minds back to just 12 months ago, the RBA wasn't expecting inflation (and interest rates) to be where they are today. Now they're forecasting inflation of 8% this year, before falling back to around the 3% mark in 2024. The problem is that their past forecasting record is not too good, so while we hope they're right, we suspect they'll be found to be wrong. |
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Magellan Infrastructure Strategy Update | Magellan Asset Management The storm of inflation | Kardinia Capital |
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28 Oct 2022 - Hedge Clippings |28 October 2022
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Hedge Clippings | Friday, 28 October 2022
When you're in a hole, stop digging! There's an old investment adage that goes along the lines of "let your winners run, and cut your losses early". However most fund managers have a stated mandate or strategy, so it's not quite as easy as that, particularly when there's an underlying shift in economic conditions, market direction, or style. While an individual investor - assuming they have the knowledge or good advice - can adjust more easily, such as by changing sector and stock selections, buying option protection, or moving to cash, (although in truth, many don't - until it's too late) that's easier said than done - without the benefit of hindsight. For many fund managers, while they may have the knowledge or foresight, they are also constrained by the mandate included in the fund's offer documents. They can mitigate risk to a certain degree by retaining or buying defensive stocks at the expense of those with economic or sector headwinds, but unless they're long/short, have the ability to de-risk through options and derivatives, or have a wider mandate, there's less flexibility available. This creates issues for investors in those funds as well. Almost all offer documents will indicate that an investment in the fund should be considered over 5 or 7 years to ride out both performance variations and changes to the underlying economic and market conditions. So do you stick with the funds you have, or adjust allocations to meet the market? The answer to the above dilemma will vary according to individual circumstances, including the level of diversification in an existing portfolio, a view on the ever changing economic outlook, and each individual investor's risk profile. What makes it difficult at the present time is the following broad statistics: Over 12 months to the end of September:
If we wind the clock back 12 months, how times have changed:
So in the space of 12 months, the best performing sector/peer group has fallen from the top to the bottom performer. Talk about rooster to feather duster! Statistics of course can prove or disprove anything, depending on what you want other people to believe. Within each of the Peer Groups the individual fund's performances also vary dramatically. What however is the lesson? Obviously individual fund selection matters, as can asset allocation, and in the above instance, peer group selection. But given those variations and fluctuations, plus a changing global economy, the one over-riding message is diversification. With appropriate diversification, and an understanding of one's risk tolerance, a portfolio should be able to deliver through the cycle. Fund Monitors' Peer Group Comparison and Analysis is available here. New Funds on FundMonitors.com Investment Perspectives: A closer look at US housing | Quay Global Investors 10k Words - October Edition | Equitable Investors China's deflating property market threatens wider economic trouble | Magellan Asset Management |
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September 2022 Performance News Delft Partners Global High Conviction Strategy Digital Asset Fund (Digital Opportunities Class) Skerryvore Global Emerging Markets All-Cap Equity Fund |
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