US fed signals the course for 2018 as Janet Yellen is set to hand over the reins...
Outgoing chair Janet Yellen presided over her last Fed meeting overnight with a unanimous decision to keep rates on hold, but sending a clear signal that they expect "inflation to pick up this year" albeit that they also indicated that it is likely to stabilise around their 2% target. From next week Jerome Powell takes over, and given there was no change to the central bank's December projection of three rate rises in 2018, and with US economic growth described as "solid", it would appear that there is every chance of a .25% rate rise in March.
With yields on the 10 year U.S. Treasury bonds having gradually risen this year to levels not seen since April 2014, the time is approaching for a seismic shift or tipping point in asset allocations, potentially destabilising the long-running equity bull market. Of course the phrase "the time is approaching" is deliberately vague, and covers every possibility from months to years, thereby giving Hedge Clippings the opportunity to claim to have forecast the move correctly, at the appropriate time, when it in fact was inevitable.
However as far as the immediate situation is concerned markets pretty much took things in their stride, no doubt in large part because investors are already pricing in a rate hike in March, and at least two, or possibly three, over the balance of the year if inflation fails to stabilise, but continues to rise. While it is been stubbornly low since the GFC on the back of economic weakness and low wages growth,Donald Trump's tax cuts and infrastructure spending plans provide the potential for it to overshoot the 2% target.
While it is inevitable that eventually the bull market in equities will come to an end at some future date, what has yet to play out is the investors' reaction and how this plays out. History tells us that bull markets rarely end in a whimper - as evidenced by the spectacular falls in 2008 and 1987 amongst others. The added known unknown this time around is the effect that the massive inflows of the past few years from passive investments (ETF's) will have on a falling market. Just as an incoming tide lifts all boats, so too does a falling tide, exposing hidden dangers on the way out.
Having said that there are those, possibly with more optimistic views, that next time round it will be different: That the steadying influences of solid economic growth, aided by tax cuts, with benign wages growth assisted by advances in technology, will balance supply and demand to allow central banks (and markets) to hold a steady course. There is no doubt this possibility exists, but it is not one to bet the house on.
