If investors were hoping for a quiet run into winter, the economic calendar has other ideas. Next week the ABS releases the March monthly CPI figures, and the market will be watching closely for confirmation that inflation is heading the wrong way. February's annual CPI was still running at 3.7%, with trimmed mean inflation at 3.3%, so the RBA was already short of breathing room before the latest oil shock began working its way through the system.

The bigger concern is that March may only be the warm-up act. April and May inflation data are likely to carry more of the impact from the continuing stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz, where disruption to one of the world's most important energy routes has pushed oil and energy prices into dangerous territory, and front of mind. While it may be a global inflation issue, it's one that lands at exactly the wrong time for households and businesses.
 

That brings us neatly, or perhaps messily, to the following Tuesday, when the RBA is due to announce its next decision. The Bank raised rates in March, and with inflation risks building again, odds are it may find itself forced to tighten policy further even as the economy looks sluggish at best. That is never a comfortable combination. Raising rates into a strong economy is one thing. Raising them into a squeeze on consumers, confidence and growth is quite another.
 

Then comes Jim Chalmers' Budget on 12 May. The Treasurer has already warned that the fallout from the Iran conflict could push inflation and unemployment higher, which is hardly the backdrop any government wants before standing up in Parliament with a fresh set of forecasts.

As for President Trump, he appears in no particular hurry to end the Gulf stalemate - or at least that is what he says today. Whether anyone should plan around what he might say tomorrow is another matter altogether.
 

Either way, the outlook feels less like a soft landing and more like a long, hard winter ahead.