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Hedge Clippings | 01 August 20256 According to economists, market junkies and the media, all or most of whom incorrectly thought there would be a rate cut in July, this week's June quarter inflation number makes a rate cut of 0.25% in August a certainty. Most of them reiterated that they thought the RBA should have acted in July rather than waiting five weeks for more data. That data, in the form of the bank's preferred "trimmed mean"inflationary measure, which came in at an annualised 2.7%, continued a downward trend, and was the lowest number since December 2021. So you'd have to suggest a rate cut the week after next would be a fait accompli. Except that the RBA are, by nature, cautious folk, embodied by their stated strategy of "easing monetary policy in a cautious and gradual manner", and there remain a couple of unknowns out there. At home, there's a risk that inflation picks up in the September and December quarters as the various energy subsidies disappear. Globally, there's the uncertainty around the economic and inflationary effects of Trump's tariffs, and his "big beautiful bill". US Fed chief Jerome Powell was sufficiently uncertain overnight and so kept US rates on hold, where they've been since last December, even though he kept his options open about the possibility of a cut in September, subject to the data. Meanwhile, back to those tariffs. It appears that for the time being, Australia has "escaped"with a tax rate of just 10% on imports into the US, a far cry from Canada's rate of 35%. Of course, knowing Trump this could change, but for now it seems that Albo's strategy of keeping a low profile could be working. Then again, it might not be Albo's strategy that's keeping Australia out of Trump's firing line. Maybe the Donald has other more pressing matters to deal with. We'd hope that's the case. Webinar How to get the most from Fundmonitors.com | Register Now News | Insights Trip Insights: Europe | 4D Infrastructure The Rise of Gamified Fandom: Why Gen Z Is Reshaping the Sports Industry | Insync Fund Managers June 2025 Performance News Insync Global Quality Equity Fund Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Argonaut Natural Resources Fund |
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