Social and Regulatory Risks of AI Magellan Asset Management February 2024 |
Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer an abstract concept; it is quickly evolving as an integrated part of our daily lives. From virtual assistants and transportation to eCommerce and even healthcare, AI is continuing to expand its application. As investors, understanding the risks and opportunities associated with this new technology is vitally important. Since the release of OpenAI's ChatGPT in November 2022, investors have recognised the large impact generative AI1 could have on businesses' productivity, growth, and innovation. What are the ESG risks of AI?Despite the incredible benefits that AI can bring to businesses, it comes with significant social risks - privacy concerns, bias, discrimination, misinformation, ethical considerations, job displacement, safety and autonomy to name a few.
However, these risks should be viewed across short-, medium- and long-term horizons for a more detailed understanding of the potential impacts.
Medium-term risks (Next 5 - 10 years): These could include risks of potential job loss, social manipulation, human rights violations and company or economic disruptions. For example:
Long-term risks (10 years and beyond): These could include environmental or existential risks. For example:
To mitigate these risks, we have seen an increase in regulation across many jurisdictions. It's important that both developers and users of AI technology are factoring these regulatory expectations into their intended use cases, to minimise these potential ESG risks and the potential impacts on cash flows as well as regulatory fines. What impacts could regulatory risks have on companies?AI regulation, if not managed well, could have a negative impact on cash flows for businesses. This may come in the form of higher costs, including potential fines and litigation or increased operating costs to meet regulatory requirements. Regulation could also lead to lower revenues, with constraints on new product developments as an example. Decreases to cash flows What will AI regulation look like?AI regulation has long been discussed but lags developments in technology. Early regulation targeted the short- and medium-term risks - to protect basic data rights, fundamental rights, and democratic freedoms in certain regions. An example of this was seen in New York where AI technology was created and in use for résumé screening long before the AI hiring law (under which employers who use AI in hiring must inform candidates) was implemented in New York. Each jurisdiction is approaching AI regulation differently, ranging from self-regulation and voluntary standards to strict rules with penalties for breaches. European Union (EU): United Kingdom (UK): United States (US): Australia: What's next for AI and regulation?As we have highlighted, one of the challenges of AI regulation is that the current approach is fragmented across different jurisdictions, making it more complex for companies creating or using AI to remain compliant. A way to overcome this would be the adoption of global AI standards to create consistency in how companies ensure responsible AI practices. We will continue to monitor the evolving AI regulation as well as the use of existing legislation for AI use cases such as the copyright infringement court case with The New York Times.4 What does this mean for investors?Investors need to carefully consider the ESG risks associated with AI when making investment decisions. These risks, ranging from reputational damage to regulatory non-compliance and workforce impact, may influence the long-term growth and performance of companies. To help mitigate these risks, investors should have a detailed understanding of the companies they are investing in when it comes to their commitment to responsible AI practices. Rigorous due diligence is essential, involving thorough research and analysis of how companies approach and address social risks associated with AI. Companies that prioritise ethical considerations, engage with stakeholders and navigate regulatory landscapes effectively provide investors with greater confidence their investments are aligned with responsible business practices and are better positioned to withstand potential environmental, social and regulatory challenges associated with AI technologies. At Magellan, social risks associated with AI form part of our company risk assessment and investment thesis. Our investment team undertakes thorough research and company engagement, and continues to monitor risks and how these risks may offset the opportunities. Leading cloud and AI vendor Microsoft, a key exposure in our global equity portfolio, has already integrated initiatives to minimise the risk of regulation including implementing a principled approach to AI development, transparent reporting about its responsible AI learnings, an AI assurance program to bridge customer requirements with regulatory compliance, and internal governance teams integrated as part of leadership. What should AI developers be working towards to minimise risk?
While some of the AI opportunities are being priced into stocks, there are still opportunities to be found, especially where companies can exploit the disruptive potential of AI. |
Funds operated by this manager: Magellan Global Fund (Hedged), Magellan Global Fund (Open Class Units) ASX:MGOC, Magellan High Conviction Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund, Magellan Infrastructure Fund (Unhedged), MFG Core Infrastructure Fund 1 Generative AI refers to algorithms that can be used to create new content based on the data they were trained on. This can include audio, images, code, text and more. Important Information: This material has been delivered to you by Magellan Asset Management Limited ABN 31 120 593 946 AFS Licence No. 304 301 ('Magellan') and has been prepared for general information purposes only and must not be construed as investment advice or as an investment recommendation. This material does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. This material does not constitute an offer or inducement to engage in an investment activity nor does it form part of any offer documentation, offer or invitation to purchase, sell or subscribe for interests in any type of investment product or service. You should obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and Target Market Determination ('TMD') and consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making a decision about whether to acquire, or continue to hold, the relevant financial product. A copy of the relevant PDS and TMD relating to a Magellan financial product may be obtained by calling +61 2 9235 4888 or by visiting www.magellangroup.com.au. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no person guarantees the future performance of any financial product or service, the amount or timing of any return from it, that asset allocations will be met, that it will be able to implement its investment strategy or that its investment objectives will be achieved. This material may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or the actual performance of a Magellan financial product or service may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. This material may include data, research and other information from third party sources. Magellan makes no guarantee that such information is accurate, complete or timely and does not provide any warranties regarding results obtained from its use. This information is subject to change at any time and no person has any responsibility to update any of the information provided in this material. Statements contained in this material that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of Magellan. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. No representation or warranty is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this material. Magellan will not be responsible or liable for any losses arising from your use or reliance upon any part of the information contained in this material. Any third party trademarks contained herein are the property of their respective owners and Magellan claims no ownership in, nor any affiliation with, such trademarks. Any third party trademarks that appear in this material are used for information purposes and only to identify the company names or brands of their respective owners. No affiliation, sponsorship or endorsement should be inferred from the use of these trademarks. This material and the information contained within it may not be reproduced, or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Magellan. |
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