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10k Words Equitable Investors June 2024 We have semiconductors snatching the sector title in equities as penny stock activity also rise in the US (not so much in Australia; and no mention of GameStop here, sorry). B2B SaaS growth moderates - as have tech EV/Revenue multiples - and strategists are now looking at strong US corporate earnings growth - will it drive capex or will it fall short itself as demand cools? The Atlanta Fed's GDP indicator has certainly dropped in recent days. Over in the US bond market, we are witnessing possibly the longest ever drawdown. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve last held rates steady for over a year in the lead-up to the global financial crisis. Finally, we take a look at Starlink satellite customer numbers scaling up and the varying productivity chasm between small and large enterprises across nations. Semiconductors emerge with the heaviest weighting in the S&P 500
Source: FactSet (via @jessefelder) Share of US equities volume accounted for by "penny" stocks (trading at <$US1 a share)
Source: Financial Times
Estimate of ex-S&P/ASX 300 volume relative to total ASX volume
Source: Equitable Investors, Iress Net new sales for all "B2B" SaaS companies on ProfitWell Metrics since Jan 1, 2022 (seven-day growth rates, seasonally adjusted)
Source: ProfitWell
Technology sector EV/NTM (next 12 months) revenue multiples
Source: Mostly metrics Strong S&P 500 earnings growth as lead indicator for capex spending Source: Apollo Chief Economist (BEA, S&P. Haver Analytics)
Evolution of Atlanta FedNow GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2024 Q2
Source: Atlanta Fed US Bond Market in a drawdown for 46 months
Source: Creative Planning, @CharlieBilello One precedent for the Federal Reserve undertaking a long hold
Source: Bloomberg Starlink customer ramp-up Source: ARK Productivity of "Micro-, small, and medium-size" enterprises relative to larger firms by country
Source: McKinsey June 2024 Edition Funds operated by this manager: Equitable Investors Dragonfly Fund Disclaimer Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Fund returns are quoted net of all fees, expenses and accrued performance fees. Delivery of this report to a recipient should not be relied on as a representation that there has been no change since the preparation date in the affairs or financial condition of the Fund or the Trustee; or that the information contained in this report remains accurate or complete at any time after the preparation date. Equitable Investors Pty Ltd (EI) does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this report. To the extent permitted by law, EI disclaims all liability that may otherwise arise due to any information in this report being inaccurate or information being omitted. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of potential investors. Before making a decision to invest in the Fund the recipient should obtain professional advice. This report does not purport to contain all the information that the recipient may require to evaluate a possible investment in the Fund. The recipient should conduct their own independent analysis of the Fund and refer to the current Information Memorandum, which is available from EI. |
